So, I get this email from Sports Illustrated with the straight-forward subject line that the Nats will win the World Series. Now, I'm fully aware what they are doing, which is precisely what I am doing, goading me to pimp their April 1, 2013 MLB Preview issue with an intriguing headline.

Redskins Hog heaven is a Redskins site, but what the heck, we're Washington sports fans, too. Any major publication that says a DC team will win a world title is worth noting. It feels a whole lot better than reporting that a big name NFL analyst had the 2012 Redskins winning three games. Here's what SI said in their email.

"(NEW YORK – Mar. 26, 2013) – Sports Illustrated predicts that the Washington Nationals will defeat the Tampa Rays for the 2013 World Series in the April 1, 2013 issue of SI, on newsstands Wednesday. The SI Baseball Preview, which has six regional covers including one of Nationals’ ace Stephen Strasburg, features 42 pages of scouting reports with standings and playoff predictions, stat projections from rotowire.com and takes on every team from rival scouts.

"In a profile on why the Nationals will win the World Series, senior writer Tom Verducci says that the they look a lot like manager Davey Johnson’s 1986 Mets team—and that the similarities will extend through October.

"Verducci writes: “Like the ’86 Mets, the 2013 Nationals are the best team on paper at the start of the season. And like that championship team, Washington has young power pitching, a deep bullpen with multiple closers, a blend of power and speed, and an unmistakable swagger.” (PAGES 59-60)"

I bet SI says something like this about the local team to bloggers in every region. The email came with images of six different players from other teams.

Every now and then, sports fans wonder whether the Washington Redskins can hold their grip on the hearts of DC sports fans. Nationals World Series win will ignite the topic anew. Hog Heaven hasn't worried about that since the arrival of Robert Griffin III. (Thank you, Mike Shanahan and Daniel Snyder.) The Redskins are the DC's most reliable trophy collector. 

Although the team is in a long drought that may now be ending, a Nats title will do no harm to the Redskins. It will do the area a lot of good. So Go Nats, or whatever battle cry they're using at Nationals Stadium. 

For Nationals coverage, see The Nats Blog on the Bloguin Network.

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The Minnesota Vikings released cornerback Antoine Winfield earlier this month in what amounted to a true cap relief move: specifically choosing 27 year old right tackle Phil Loadholt over the soon-to-be 36 year old corner.  The Vikings want Winfield back, but the 14 year veteran is not lacking for suitors and will have his choice of numerous teams to play for in 2013.

So its pretty significant that he's decided to visit the Washington Redskins this Wednesday, as his first official (known) free agency visit.  They don't just make these visits for fun, and it means that Winfield can see himself with the Redskins in 2013.

Ultimately, this all comes down to what kind of money he can get, and based on current market conditions, we can expect Winfield to go for between $2-3 million on the market on a one-year deal.  On principle alone, the Redskins cannot expect to get him for any less than they got E.J. Biggers signed for, which was 1 year, $1.5 million.  Biggers to date has been the most expensive free agent added by the Redskins.  Only Kory Lichtensteiger ($1.8 million) will count more towards the cap in 2013.

The precident for a multi-year contract exists here for the 36-year old corner: the London Fletcher contract from a year ago.  Fletcher made $5.25 million in year one last year with a cap hit of $2.45 million because of bonus proration.  With such a contract, the Redskins would be very much blowing away a weak CB market.  But the cap hit wouldn't be much different than if the Redskins just offered a one-year market value contract to Winfield, and let him weigh his options.

A veteran player like Winfield has less incentive to sign a one-year deal than a player in his mid-twenties because there's almost nothing a 36 year old can do on the field to increase his value heading into next year.  The logic is simple: at this point, each year the player ages impacts his value more negatively than sustained, consistent performance on the field.  Adding a fourth pro bowl this year means little when Winfield will be 37 years old next year.  Unlike a player like E.J. Biggers, the offer that may get this deal done is multiple years.

In making this move, the Redskins can lock up Winfield for two years at a very reasonable cap number, giving Richard Crawford a legitimate mentor in this defense.  I'm not big into the idea of mentors for young players (coaches are rather highly paid to be spending roster spots on mentors), but it needs to be said that the Redskins are incredibly late getting on the slot cornerback bandwagon, dabbling in it for the first time last year with DeAngelo Hall, who -- lets be fair here -- plays the game differently than most.  Winfield would replace Hall's physicality in the lineup, improve the coverage abilities of the unit, and be someone who can play Crawford's role the way it needs to be seen before Crawford himself is expected to play that way.

On the downside: standard injury and attrition associated with aging players.  Isn't it concerning that the Redskins would be giving $2+ million/year to a player on the downside of his career.  Well, the Redskins gave Cedric Griffin 1/$3MM last offseason right in the middle of crying poor due to the cap penalty.*  The Redskins havent had an instance where they have gotten no return on a free agent acquisition in the last three years, at least since Larry Johnson was signed.  When you invest in a player like Winfield, the downside focuses not on whether he can play or not, but what percentage of the investment you anticipate to be spent inactive due to age-related injury.  If the Redskins get 14 games in 2013 and 5 in 2014, then you take the value of 2 games of Richard Crawford at LCB in 2013 and 11 games in 2014, and add the surplus value (since he will basically play at league minimum) to what Winfield provides.  If you're getting $10 million in value from that combination, you'll be alright.  If you aren't getting that much return, you'd be better off passing and addressing cornerback in the draft.

*As an aside, as dumb and illogical and unfair as the cap penalty leveraged on the Redskins has been, is there anything more annoying than the Redskins crying poor while giving out contracts to some of the least accomplished players on the market in consecutive years? It started with Cedric Griffin and Brandon Meriweather last year, then continued this offseason with Jeremy Trueblood and Tyler Polumbus.  I appreciate that Santana Moss and Adam Carriker took pay cuts, but for a team that really feels the cap crunch, the Redskins flush cap dollars down the drain on replacement-level talent a lot more often than most teams.

There's a football saying that its better to get rid of a player one year too soon than one year too late, which is likely what happened between Winfield and the Vikings.  Winfield still plays at a high level, but the end is rapidly approaching, so didn't make sense as a core piece for the Vikings anymore.  Winfield makes a lot of sense for the Redskins on a two year committment, because it keeps the Redskins from being stretched thin at the position.  He fits into a tight cap situation, and will more than replace the physicality and coverage abilities the Redskins are giving up this offseason.   He makes the team better, at a fraction of the cost the Redskins were spending at CB last year.  And that's what teams like the Redskins look for when they look to upgrade in the offseason.

Picture Robert Griffin III as a mild-mannered reporter for the local newspaper who has a big burgundy “R” under his shirt. I can see that because Dr. James Andrews as much as called RGIII Superman on a recent ESPN show.

"RGIII is one those superhumans. First patient I ever had like that was Bo Jackson. And recently I, of course, had Adrian Peterson, who is also superhuman. They have an unbelievable ability to recover, whereas a normal human being may not be able to recover."

Bo Jackson and Adrian Peterson are athletic phenomena. Hog Heaven won’t let emotion to get ahead of him. We’ll wait to see Griffin III in action before any joy jumping. But Andrews is in a position to know and he is not expressing caution. It counts for something; we just don’t know what yet.

We need to see Griffin play for the answer to the great question, should he have played in the second half of the Seahawks playoff game? Head coach Mike Shanahan came under fire for risking the future of Redskins football in that game. We are of the camp that says Shanahan should have benched Griffin after the first series of the half.

Shanahan saw Griffin up close and made the call. He too saw a little Bo Jackson in him. If RGIII returns to his starting role by October, then Shanahan’s gamble was an acceptable risk. It would be another remarkable accomplishment by a remarkable player.

That’s not to say it was Shanahan’s best decision. By the second half, it was clear that Griffin did not give the Redskins the best chance to win, despite his protests otherwise. Kirk Cousins was more able physically at that point. That was evident to everyone but the coach and player.

The Redskins earlier beat eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore using Cousins under similar circumstances. Cousins would have made a stronger argument for himself by better play. He might have done so with more first team practice reps leading up to the playoff game. Coaches loath taking reps away from starters.

I understand the logic, but any idiot blogger (ahem) could have kept doing what we always do. Paid professionals are supposed to see the change needed and then make that change. 

It was a quandary for Shanahan. He made the decisions. Things turned out as they did. The Redskins could not cope with the loss of Griffin because they did nothing the week before to hedge the risk.   

Griffin would not have started against Atlanta the following week anyway and Shanahan has already said Cousins will take all the preseason first team snaps this year. Griffin will not start until he is 100 percent says the coach. 

Finally, the Shanny is tapping his inner Bo.

Fred Davis has seen Griffin.

“He definitely looks really good,” Davis said of RG3. “You can barely even tell that he’s hurt. He’s doing every drill. He looks comfortable and normal to me. When he first got back, I was surprised, like, ‘Did you just have surgery?’

“He works hard,” Davis added. “Whenever he says he’s going to do something, he’s going to do it. I believe that he’ll be back sooner than people expect.”  

Davis is recovering from an Achilles injury that ended his season early last year. He says he is a bit ahead of schedule on his rehab.

Redskins’ faithful are anxious that Davis remains unsigned. That’s a good sign, actually. In the old days, the team would have abused the salary cap by now and let the future take care of itself. But these guys – Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen – gauge the value of a player and put a market-based offer on the table.

Davis can go shop the market, but if Shanallenhan pegged it right, he will find the ‘Skins offer attractive, if only because differences from another team won’t compensate him for the career risk of playing in an unfamiliar offense. It won’t compensate for separation from RGIII, either.

The front office went through this with London Fletcher last season and Fletcher re-signed with Washington. It’s how smart teams operate. This is a good process. Get used to it.  

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With so many positives surrounding the Washington Redskins in 2012, one of the negatives without question was how Fred Davis’ season ended. The tight end played in just seven games before tearing an Achilles tendon. It was a crushing blow for a team that needed veteran leadership. Now with an injury to battle back from and his career up in the air, what should fantasy football owners expect in 2013?

@skinshogheaven we need to keep him, he and @rgiii got a good thing going. & with @pierregarcon it's redonkulous! #ham #Redskins

— brian johnston (@bobbi3stix) March 21, 2013

So, people are asking NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell if there was as snowball's chance in hell that he would reduce the salary cap penalty assessed last season on the Washington Redskins.

Um, no.

Redskins GM Bruce Allen and Executive VP Mike Shanahan railed against the penalty, and they seemed genuinely shocked that they could not talk the league into cap relief this year. Shanahan said that the NFL never explained why the Redskins (and Cowboys) were penalized in the first place. A legion of 'Skins fans agree.

Pu-lease.

Let me break the code for you.

NFL owners – not Commissioner Goodell, mind you – are determined that the Redskins, read that as Daniel Snyder, face the full consequences of the foolish 2009 free agent contract for Albert Haynesworth.

Haynesworth's seven-year, $100 million contract has been panned by, well, by everyone, as the most foolish free agent signing in league history. He was a bust in the '09 season, then, he spent the entire 2010 season in Shanahan's doghouse.

What incensed team owners is that the deal inflated the going rate for defensive players in 2009. Other teams were hurt by it. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti was particularly unhappy about what Snyder did to his salary structure. Small market owners must have been equally incensed.

Haynesworth says the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offered more, but that he wanted to play in the Washington market. Lucky us. We landed the big fish.

NFL contracts do not last their full term. Under normal circumstances, either Haynesworth, or the dead cap cost of his departure would be on the books through the 2013 season. That's the impact the owners are imposing on the Redskins, and why they won't budge.

The Haynesworth deal could not have come at a worse time for team owners.

In 2009, small market owners were still at war with big market owners and all of them were unhappy with the 2006 CBA Extension. By 2009, the owners were plotting to reduce the salary cap. That would please those pesky small market teams. The owners planned to lock out the players, and that entailed "managing" (ahem) the cap-free year in 2010.

The Redskins were under new management in 2010, although Shanahan made a valiant effort to run by the Snyderrato playbook – trade for proven talent Donovan McNabb and get productivity out of Haynesworth. They admitted defeat by the end of the season.

Allen and Shanahan set out to fix Washington's cap structure by taking advantage of the no-cap clauses of the 2006 Extension to pull most of Haynesworth's and DeAngelo Hall's salary into the 2010 season. The owner's took note as the pulled the trigger on the lockout.

The accounting maneuver led to a $36 million cap windfall for the Redskins who entered the 2012 offseason $40-odd million under that salary cap. Then, the NFL Management Council busted the team for that windfall. Washington had to take at least half the penalty last season, with the remainder this year.

The alternate scenarios that could have played out

1. The management council might have required the Redskins to take the entire cap hit in 2012.

2. The management council might have docked the Redskins' first-round Draft picks in 2012 and 2013.

Robert Griffin III would be in Cleveland if the owners chose either of these scenarios. For all we know, it might have been Goodell who convinced owners not to take those paths. John Mara, Giants owner and chairman of the Management Council hints that both options were considered.

3. Gene Upshaw might have lived

Upshaw saw the lockout coming. He said that, if the owners locked out the players, the Players' Association would never again agree to a salary cap. That negotiation play died with Upshaw in 2008. The union went in a different direction and they chose litigator DeMaurice Smith to sue the owners in court and to win the fans with a myopic "Let Them Play" campaign.

If there were no salary cap in the current CBA, there would be no cap penalty on the Redskins now.

Upshaw liked the way the Mr. Snyder paid his players. He would have liked the way the Redskins used the no cap year. The post-Upshaw Players' Association were not staunch defenders of Washington's approach until it was way too late. That's important because the owners needed the union's concurrence to the sanction, which DeMaurice Smith gave. 

R.I.P., Gene Upshaw. I miss you.

Collusion, in a good way

I like collusion in sports leagues. It's how schedules are made. It's why "our" players have a hard time moving to new teams at will. It's why team relocations are rare. Collusion helps make a league a league. But, it's contrary to federal anti-trust laws.

The owner agreements on things like treatment of the no cap year is partly why leagues work. It's partly how the NFL keeps competitive balance. Money cannot trump good management in football. I like that. And so do you, brother.

The cap hit is an owner-against-owner action directed at Jerry Jones and especially at Daniel Snyder. It is pointless to ask Roger Goodell about it. It's out of his hands.

Mr. Snyder's only recourse is to attack the collusion by the suing the NFL for conspiracy in restraint of trade under the Sherman Anti-Trust act. But Snyder could lose by winning if it means the owners cannot work together on things that make "our team" ours. That's too big a step, even for a daring owner like Snyder.

Meanwhile, the players' union, like Capt. Renault in the old Casablanca movie, seems shocked, SHOCKED,  to learn that collusion is going on in this establishment.

The silver lining

 The cap hit forced the front office to be shrewd about the 2012 Draft. Rookies led the team to a ten-win season, the best Redskins finish since 1999. Whatever the front office did last year, they have to do it again this year. Maybe it was a fluke, but I think they can do it.   

The Washington Redskins will enter the month of April with five safeties under contract who have experience starting NFL games.  That does not include Madieu Williams, who the Redskins will allow to walk as an unrestricted free agent, nor does it include Jordan Bernstine, the Redskins' seventh round pick from 2012 who missed the entire season with an injury.

For a team team that broke it's training camp last year with six safeties on the roster (not including Tanard Jackson, who had been suspended by the NFL), this isn't that surprising.  And although the safety position was a major liability in 2012, those problems were caused primarily by Williams being forced into the lineup by a general lack of experience and injury concerns thoughout the season.

I think most observers expected the Redskins to make the safety position a priority in free agency -- and they still might look to upgrade in the draft -- but given how much competition they entered the offseason with, it can't be terribly surprising that they haven't made a move at the position yet.

They did make one move, though: they reduced Brandon Meriweather's base salary for the upcoming season.  The Redskins had all the leverage, and needed to use it.  Meriweather had one year left on his deal, and wasn't going to be able to get a multi year deal on the market coming off a year where he played fewer than 50 snaps following two years where he was benched by two different teams.  The Redskins don't save quite as much cap space as they would have releasing Meriweather outright, but it's in the ballpark.

That, more or less, was the move the Redskins made in free agency, picking Meriweather at a cap value at $1.65 million over Kenny Phillips at a higher number.  Phillips is the better player, but the Redskins are betting they can get starter-level play out of Meriweather at a more efficient price tag.

It's a fairly aggressive move, and it sets up the Redskins to move to fix their defensive backfield issues completely internally.  At least at the safety position.

As far as the draft goes, expect Washington to be interested in safeties that fit their system, but with the top three free safeties (Johnathan Cyprien, Kenny Vaccaro, and Matt Elam) all expected off the board before the Redskins select, I believe this will foster a trade down strategy out of the second round, making cornerbacks a more-likely target on day two.   For what it's worth, I do not expect the Redskins to reach for Phillip Thomas (Fresno State) or LSU's Eric Reid in the second round. One name I keep hearing associated with the Redskins is Georgia Southern's safety JJ Wilcox.  The Redskins could look at Notre Dame's Zeke Motta or USC's TJ McDonald on day three.

However, due to the makeup of their roster, the Redskins are under no obligation at all to draft a safety.  They could take their current roster into the upcoming season, and still expect much improved play from their safeties.  It's hard to make the same assertion about corners, where the Redskins also have six players under contract, but Josh Wilson is the only one of the six with any meaningful experience.  Given that teams have to play three corners on about 50% of defensive snaps, it's nonsensical to try to head into the season with Richard Crawford, Chase Minnifield, and Jerome Murphy as your no. 2, no. 3, and no.4 CBs, no matter how high of a grade each player has.  Even if they are your third, fourth, and fifth CB on the depth chart respectively, there's still considerable room for improvement.

I do expect the Redskins to make at least one FA acquisition and two draft choices at the corner position between now and training camp.  At safety?  The Redskins very may roll as is into the season.  It's not what fans would have expected going into the offseason, but there's enough talent lying around already on the roster to make it work.

Is there no end to the excitement and glamor of the life of a football star?

The civil trial of Washington Redskins free agent tight end Fred Davis and Makini R, Chaka came to a head in a D.C. Courtroom today. You recall hearing about this last Summer when Davis and Chaka squared off in a preliminary hearing where each represented themselves.

Media and fans had a field day with that one. Few people cared that Davis won that hearing. Both sides were represented by council at the trial on Monday. As in our last exciting episode, character assassination was the order of the day.

Chaka is suing Davis for $350,000 for ruining her business ... and her boots. Chaka says Davis assaulted her at Josephine Nightclub and Lounge in a 2011 incident in D.C.. Davis claims to have been a victim of a prior assault by Chaka. 

"Celebrity broker" Chaka said that news of the incident revealed in the June 2012 hearing led to the loss of clients. Stewart Prince, a witness for Davis, described Chaka as a "Madam/Pimpette," but refused to name names of hostesses Chaka allegedly tried to recruit, or of athletes and celebrities she served. The judge struck his entire testimony.

Chaka and Davis were acquaintances, not involved in a relationship. As Chaka explained it, "He has a thing for Asian [women]."

Davis denied assaulting Chaka in the manner she described. However, the incident was captured on video and it was presented at trial. (This is a civil, not a criminal, trial.) 

A suitable story for Judge Judy, don't you think? The real judge will render her verdict at some point in the future according to the story on washingtonian.com.

Hog Heaven enjoys stories of young men reaching emotional maturity. The process for Fred Davis is unusually entertaining. One lesson he knows by now is, "they are out there, waiting for reckless young men blessed with public adulation and a fat wallet." "They" not necessarily meaning Ms. Chaka.

If Davis gets dinged for learning to pick his associates better and learning the high cost of athlete retaliation, it will be money well spent and easily replaced when the Redskins re-sign him.

There was a false story circulating this morning that Washington indeed signed Davis, but it hasn't happened yet. Mike Shanahan has said he wants Davis back, but may have thought better of saying anything on the day of Davis trial.