There's an oddity in the Baltimore Ravens defense. That might be enough to give the Redskins a win. Baltimore can't get anyone off the field. The Ravens defense is on the field on average for 33:26 per game.  

Injuries are part of it. Too little use of Ray Rice is certainly part of it. The Redskins know how to run. They proved that when they closed the Giants by running out the last 3:51 of the game. Running the ball a lot could keep the best part of the Redskins on the field.

You know that old saying: The best defense is not letting your secondary back on the field.

— Dan Snyder Cares (@DanSnyderCares) December 4, 2012

Never in the history of the Ravens-Redskins series do I recall a game when the sportsbooks favored Washington, until now. The books set the Redskins as three-point favorites for Sunday's game at FedEx Field. Hog Heaven agrees. We expect a Redskins win.

The Redskins fare poorly against AFC North teams and they are down 0-2 this year as they wrap up against the Ravens and Browns. Hog Heaven considers Cleveland the more dangerous because Washington has trouble coping with four-win teams. The Redskins lost to the Rams, as they frequently do, and to the Panthers.

For the first time since the Y2K $100 Million Dollar Team, Washington has talent to cope with Baltimore. Back then, Stephen Davis gained 91 yards and a score in a tight 10-3 win that Rich Tandler called "exciting" in his book, The Redskins Chronicle. Clinton Portis and LaDel Betts ran less well in losses in 2004 and 2008. 

Portis had better seasons with Mike Shanahan than with Joe Gibbs. Now combine Alfred Morris youth and health with Shanahan's rushing concepts and you get a more competitive ground game against Baltimore.

With rule changes, fresh talent and coaching concepts borrowed from the NCAA, the offense rules football today. If Washington's defense has fallen hard, Baltimore's has fallen harder. Washington makes do with scores off turnovers to make up for weakness in the secondary.

It's football. We got injuries.

Of the secondary talent infusion Jim Haslett and Raheem Morris counted on, only Madieu Williams has played every game – a factor Hog Heaven will weigh for a keep or kick decision on Haslett at year end. The Redskins pass rush hasn't been right since Brian Orakpo's injury.

Baltimore has injury issues of their own. Ray Lewis is still out. Terrell Suggs is questionable. I learned from my fantasy football days that "questionable" means the players will play. Suggs will no more miss the game than will gimpy London Fletcher and DeAngelo Hall will for the Redskins.

Raven's cornerback Chris Johnson's status deteriorated from Probable to Questionable since Friday. CB Steve Smith, still recovering from hernia surgery, is Doubtful. DT Haloti Ngata is rounding into Pro Bowl form after struggling with a shoulder injury all season.

The Ravens defense is a clone of the Giants. They bring pressure. They welcome every chance to deliver a hard knock to Robert Griffin III whenever he rushes the ball. That's who the Ravens are. Media types welcome every chance to talk about the danger to RGIII on those hits. Hog Heaven doesn't see it.

Griffin has the same measurables and better speed than typical NFL running backs. He's larger than the Titan's Chris Johnson is. Running backs take hits. The injury risks to Griffin are no more than for any other football player.

The rushing tandem of Griffin and Alfred Morris is very much how Washington defeats a defense that cannot seize control of the game clock.   

The three stats that matter suggest an exceptionally close game that is too close to call. We call the win anyway. 

Passer Rating Differential
Redskins +13.5
Ravens +7.5
Advantage Redskins

The frustrations of Ravens fans are qualitatively better than Redskins fans. Their loss to the Steelers triggered the same angst Redskins fans felt after the Panthers loss. There is no shame in losing to the Steelers, but Joe Flacco endured a rough week of doubts about his ability to win big games.

Net Turnover Differential
Redskins +11
Ravens +9
Advantage Redskins, but it's a slight one

The hard-hitting Ravens forced nine fumbles and recovered five of them. I hope the coaches drilled Alfred Morris on ball protection this week. The Redskins scored five touchdowns off turnovers, the Ravens only two. The game will turn on a defensive score.

Third-Down Conversions Allowed
Redskins 45%
Ravens 38%
Advantage Ravens, but it's an odd one

Baltimore's apparent advantage is deceptive. They've been in 851 third down situations. By comparison, Washington has been in 785. Though the Ravens allowed a lower conversion rate than the Redskins, that's still 69 first downs allowed to the 'Skins' 47.  

It could be that Washington allows more first downs before opponents get to third down. Big plays are an issue for the defense. However, time of possession is a Baltimore red flag. We award the point to Baltimore because they overcame a handicap to win nine games.

Stats can show trends, but trends are predictive only if they show up in games. Games take on lives of their own. My Magic 8 Ball, which has not been wrong in four games, says "It is certain" for a Redskins' win.  

I'll go with that.

Image: Battle of the Beltway borrowed from Washington Redskins.
Robert Griffin III injured on play against Atlanta Falcons, found on Google here.

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The Redskins promoted sixth round draft pick Tom Compton from the practice squad to the 53-man roster yesterday.

After several 'Gumby' hits on RG3 this year, many of us wondered how the Tom Compton project was going.

The Redskins have been fortunate this year with their offensive line as far the injury bug goes.  Last year, the injury and suspension bug hit the O-Line hard and took the Redskins literally off Guard.

This year the injury/suspension bug hit the already weak secondary like a category 5 hurricane.  We also found that all it took was one hit to Orakpo to wipe out the Redskins pass rush.

Like pundits plotting the Redskins' wish list for next year' Draft and free agency, we place Right Tackle at the top of that list.  Clearly, everyone realizes that Jammal Brown's hip-hop is over and that Tyler Polumbus will never come anywhere close to the level of Trent Williams.

Enter Tom Compton – a hard working, big fish from a no name school (South Dakota) that no self-respecting talent scout would give the time of day.  Sounds a bit like Alfred Morris already....

In the pre-season, Compton looked OK, but was blown away by top tier defensive ends and their spin moves.  Compton barely budged as the ends spun by him on their way to pummel the QB.  You could see Logan Paulsen's hair flying from the breeze.  I believe that allowed the Redskins to sneak Compton onto the practice squad without being poached (until now).

On paper, Compton has around the same numbers as Trent Williams as far as speed, agility and strength, and that is truly freakish and scary.

The big question now is whether his promotion was simply a tactic to keep Compton from being poached and he is in line to be the Right Tackle/ Left Tackle first back-up OR is he next year's (or the year after) starting Right Tackle?

Outsiders like me have no clue except for the words of Mike Shanahan.  He said that Compton 'has a BIG-TIME future with us."  Sound familiar?  Shanny said those same words with only one other player this year, Alfred Morris.  I for one don't believe he would say this about a future bench warmer. 

Let's hope Compton is the answer at Right Tackle giving Redskins cap room to fill up:

1. Safeties; 
2. Cornerbacks;
3. Another monster pass rusher (we are way too vulnerable hinging the entire defense on the health of Orakpo);
4. A real kick returner.

Image: Wikipedia.org

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Just when Hog Heaven is ready to say nice things about the Washington Redskins defense, Michael Lombardi goes and writes my story for me.

Robert Griffin III and the Redskins are getting a big boost from the defense says Lombardi in a story up today on NFL.com.

"Yards allowed are not a true indication of how a defense is performing. Points allowed, red-zone success and third-down conversions allowed in the red zone are the true barometers of defensive health, and the Redskins have improved in all three categories since returning from their bye week. Even during their win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, when the Cowboys scored 31 points, the Skins' defense played a big role, preventing Dallas from making the big play, allowing RG3 to build a huge 28-3 first-half lead. Before the bye, a tendency to give up big plays had been a major issue for Washington's secondary."

Something was different in the second half of the Giants game. New York converted 8 of 10 third-down attempts in the first half; yet, they had but four possessions in the second half and made a single third-down conversion. The Redskins held two of three first half scoring drives to field goal attempts – one was a miss. The Giants left eight points on the field helped by a Redskins defense that was good enough for the day.

My Minnesota friends at Purple Jesus Blog said nice things about former Vikings free agent pick-up CB Cedric Griffin. They said he was "awesome" on the 2009 Vikings defense, but lost his speed after his ACL tear.

If you are old enough, you remember ex-Vikings RB Terry Allen and concern for his "two bad knees." In the fantasy world of the time, smart players said after every bad game to trade him for said bad knees. I did not outsmart myself. I kept Allen and won a fantasy title. I secretly hoped the same of C.Griffin.

The Griffin gamble seemed to pay off for the Redskins, but sadly, the league suspended him for use of Adderall. C.Griffin, Jackson and Brandon Meriweather were supposed to backfill the secondary after LaRon Landry's departure. Landry is disgustingly healthy for the Jets, while those three are idle.

Meh. Press on.

Next, the New York Baltimore Ravens

Heard on NFL Network: Will the Ravens be ready for @rgiii and the Redskins? Last year they would have asked that the other way around.

— Anthony Brown (@SkinsHogHeaven) December 5, 2012

The Redskins next face the Baltimore Ravens, the AFC team most like the New York Giants. Thank the gods of scheduling for that. The Ravens are clones of the Giants. There's a blessing in continuity to prepare for them.

I do worry about the match up of Ravens RB Ray Rice vs. ILB London Fletcher. Fletch is the defensive quarterback and the Redskins leading tackler, but his ankles are gimpy and he may be showing early signs of age. 

The Ravens are perfectly balanced targeting their top two wide receivers, but Torrey Smith is the more dangerous of the two.

.       

For point of reference, Victor Cruz caught 57.6 percent of balls targeted to him for a lower average (13.0) and one more score than Smith.

If Smith is less reliable than Cruz or Bolden, he's still a big strike receiver. We know when the Redskins are in deep cover two against the Ravens, they have to be deeep back on critical down out of concern concern for Smith. The Ravens will target whoever is playing slot receiver in a favorable match-up against whoever is replacing C.Griffin.

That brings up names you've never heard of, Jerome Murphy (signed November 20), Domonique Johnson (signed October 22), and 2012 seventh round pick Richard Crawford.

Coping with necessary gaps between cornerbacks and safeties and unequal match-ups in the slot must haunt Jim Haslett, but not all those fans who want to fire him.

The defense role is to be complimentary to the offense – keep scoring close and force a turnover or two. It would really help if the D scored off a turnover, too.

Go take a look at the Lombardi story on NFL.com. We'll be here when you come back.

Image: Victor Cruz and Cedric Griffin found on Giants.com here.
Ravens receiver Torrrey Smith found on boston.cbslocal.com here.

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Robert Griffin III came back from the BYE dedicated to becoming a better player. How was that possible, we all thought? There are lists of other Redskins players who had to get better before we got to RGIII.

Now we know what Griffin meant. Better wasn't good enough. Perfection is his goal. He's infectious. He ignites. Everybody else is more responsible for Redskins success than he is, or so he says. Alfred Morris is his choice for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. "Pierre Garcon plays with anger."

No. The rest of the team wants to put the ball in his hands because they too want to see what jaw-dropping thing he will do next.

Since the Bye, Washington (read that as Griffin) has:

·         won three straight games, all over division rivals to gain tie-breaking leverage over the Giants,

·         completed 73 percent of his passes for 10.5 yards per attempt and with a 9:1 TD to INT ratio,

·         broke the Cam Newton record for rushes by a rookie quarterback,

·         become the first team in NFL history to have a rookie quarterback throw for 2,000 yards and a rookie running back rush for 1,000 yards in the same season, ...

and the season ain't over yet.

RG3 on taking big hit near sideline: "I could hear the type writers typing on that one", referring to his critics.

— Daniel Shiferaw (@dshif) December 4, 2012

RG3: "I could feel the typewriters writing when I took that hit." Oh crap, it knocked him back to 1982...

— Brad Gagnon (@Brad_Gagnon) December 4, 2012

More than any time in since The Hogs glory days, the Washington Redskins (read that as Griffin) are clutch. 

Giants are still in the driver's seat

The Giants are still the defending Super Bowl Champion and still the Beast of the East until dethroned. That will dawn on them when they return to practice Wednesday. To see them early Tuesday morning was to get the impression the sun was setting on the Giants empire.

To defend the title, they have to stay one game better than the Redskins and Cowboys to make the tiebreakers meaningless. New York cannot do any more about Washington, but Dallas is on their schedule.

The Giants were so incensed about their December 2011 loss to the Redskins that they didn't lose another game that year. The two differences this year are that they cannot afford to slip and that it is Washington, not Dallas or Philadelphia that's pushing them.

It's sunrise over Redskins Park. Rookies and new players are saving Redskins football, and a lot of coaching jobs, to boot.

Stats that matter show good news and bad news

Quarterback passer rating differential

At the end of the half, Eli Manning had a 20-point advantage in QBR over Griffin. He completed 14 of 24 passes, including a TD strike to tight end Martellus Bennett, who was invisible to Redskins linebackers, and two field goal attempts.  Manning toyed with Washington's defense at every turn to remain on the field at will while keeping RGIII where they wanted him, on the bench.

You know that old saying: The best defense is not letting your secondary back on the field.

— Dan Snyder Cares (@DanSnyderCares) December 4, 2012

 The Giants parlayed statistical advantage into a narrow lead in a tight game.

There's a story in what happened in the Redskins locker room during the half. It will dribble out through the professional class in the next day or two. Whatever it was, its effect was seen in the QBR that swung to Griffin's advantage by game's end.

Griffin's passer rating – 101.9
Manning's Passer rating – 98.0

In the end, the champs went out with a whimper. Of their four second-half possessions, one ended with a field goal, the others with punts. The last possession closed with Manning's four-yard completion on third and 20. The Redskins took the punt at 3:51 and literally ran the clock down.

New York was done in by a pair of rookies, Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris.

Third Down Stops

If Jim Haslett were fired for anything, it would be the inability of his defense to make stops. If the 'Skins are so fortunate to make the playoffs, this will kill them if things don't get better. The good news is that it may be getting better.  

The Giants made eight of 10 third down attempts in the first half, but nine of 15 for the game. Say what? The G-men made one measly third down conversion in the second half.

We have to have a long discussion about Jim Haslett after the season. Now isn't the time. Total yardage defense isn't the point in the passing era. The Giants and Patriots did not make the Super Bowl because they were tops in yardage. They were disruptive.

If the Redskins cannot make stops, they must be disruptive. Turnovers are how they make stops. That won't come conveniently on third downs. What Haslett makes of this defense, given its talent and injuries, London Fletcher is a special concern, is the only way to judge him this season.

But, yeah, the Redskins need to get better at making stops.

Turnover Differential

The Redskins "lost" the turnover battle, but Griffin's turned into a freak play recovery by Josh Morgan for a score. Call it an omen of the evening.

Ground and pound baby! #MNF

— Stephen Strasburg (@stras37) December 4, 2012

Alfred Morris' third quarter fumble deep in Giants territory fueled his possessed running on Washington's last drive to lock up the win. You don't get a pass for fumbles, but Morris earned velvet glove treatment. It was a coachable moment in an outstanding performance.   

AP Story on NFL.com – Redskins peaking at right time with won over Giants. 

Image: Rob Carr, Getty Images/North America via zimbio.com.

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If it's true that the best defense is a strong offense, then how good must the Washington Redskins D be to beat the Giants? Better than they were the last time they met. Our defense effectively separated Eli Manning from his wide receivers for 58:47 of game time. Then the inexplicable, inexcusable breakdown that opened a highway for Victor Cruz's 77-yard game-winning score.  

The Redskins are undefeated since Coach Mike Shanahan said he was evaluating players after the inexcusable loss to the Panthers. Why anyone pays attention to what Shanahan says in press conferences mystifies me, but everyone took the comment to mean he would evaluate young players for the rest of the season. Um, the 'Skins are already a young team whose best performances are coming from rookies.

For real examples of teams going through conventional player evaluations, look north to the Eagles and maybe the Jets. That didn't happen here.

("You guys should print what the mayor meant instead of what he said." ~ Aide to Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley in the 1970s)

We are two wins over flawed division rivals and facing the Beast of the East Giants to stay close in the hunt for the division title. Sportsbooks set the Giants as three-point favorites and rightly so. But everyone in town, including me, thinks the Redskins will win tonight. Ya gotta love fans.

Hope is not off the mark after the Redskins gained a combined 798 yards in the last two games, and out-scored the Eagles and Cowboys 69-37. The Redskins approach this game with confidence. So does ESPN.

Here's what we saw yesterday.

The Cowboys beat the Eagles to reach 6-6, 3-2 within the division. They need the Redskins to lose, but they need more for the Giants to lose. Dallas is hoping for a tie.

Quarterbacks of the golden class of 2012 led their teams to unexpected wins. You expect Robert Griffin III to do at least as well, don't you? I sure as hell do.

The Giants are the first team to get a second look at RGIII. Look for adjustments. The Giants are the first team that RGIII will see a second time. Look for growth. Both sides are eerily silent about tonight, so growth and adjustments are coming.

Someone baited Victor Cruz into saying the Redskins don't have all the pieces for a title run. The mob turned that into "they aren't as good as the Giants." I don't think Cruz meant it that way.

I assume Cruz refers to the defense, the Redskins he will actually face. He's right. The flaws in the defense are too well documented to deny. The Redskins made their chops as a big play – turnover team. Washington doesn't make stops, but they can force turnovers if DeAngelo Hall plays well and if London Fletcher is not gimpy (ankles).

I hope Mike Shanahan saved something from the playbook to spring on New York tonight. Otherwise, that second look works to the Giants' advantage.

The three stats worth looking at call for a close game

Passer Rating Differential

Hog Heaven buys the Cold Hard Football Facts notion that a favorable passer rating differential has a .667 relationship to wins. It's a "quality stat."   

Since the two teams last met, the Redskins widened their passer rating differential vs. opponents.

Redskins QBR 102.5, Opponents QBR 88.4, Differential +14.1
Giants QBR 84.1, Opponents QBR 84.4, Differential -0.3

Advantage – Redskins

Third Down Stops, the Redskins out-performed the Eagles and Cowboys.

This is one of the only two defensive stats that former Redskins defensive guru Richie Petibon pays attention to. The other is turnover differential.

As with the passer rating, Washington improves slightly since the game in New York. They did not stop the Eagles and Giants on third down. They out-performed them. Thus, the best defense turns out to be a better offense.

Redskins 3rd down attempts 148, 3^rd downs allowed 64, conversion rate 42%
Giants 3rd down attempts 132, 3^rd downs allowed 51, conversion rate 39%   

The Eagles are falling apart. The Cowboys ran poorly and the Redskins knocked Miles Austin out of the game early. The champs are healthier; they will convert third downs. The question of the game is whether they can make critical third down stops in their second game against the RG3skins. The Giants have the chops to do it.

Advantage – Giants, but it's a slight one

Turnover Differential

The NFL ranks defenses by total yards. Indeed the top five teams in total defense are playoff contenders. Yet the Giants and Patriots ranked 27^th and 30^th in that category last year. Both made the Super Bowl. The Redskins ranked 13^th in total defense yet, bungled their way to a five-win season. The difference is turnovers. Washington snagged 13 interceptions all of last season. They have 14 in 11 games this year.

That's just half the story. Robert Griffin III had one task to be considered an upgrade in the position – be better than Rex Grossman. Sexy Rexy threw 16 TD passes and 20 INTs. Griffin has already thrown 16 TD passes, 8 in the last two games, to a mere 4 INTs. Improvement at quarterback is a huge boost for a struggling defense.

Redskins T/O differential +15
Giants T/O differential +13

The hard-hitting Giants forced 17 fumbles and recovered 11 of them. I foresee the Giants being guarded against Griffin III and whaling on his targets to force turnovers. I hope Alfred Morris and the receivers are ready.

Advantage – Even, so turnovers decide the game.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Games take on a life of their own. Stats only suggest an outcome if trends hold true in game.

In time of doubt, I turn to my Magic 8 Ball. The 8 Ball called it right in the last three games. Asked if the Redskins will beat the Giants tonight, the 8 Ball said, "You may rely on it."

Yea, 8 Ball.

HTTR

Image: #BEATNYG image floated by the NFL and the Washington Redskins. There's a New York Giants version floating around, too.

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Jon Gruden had his first up-close look at Robert Griffin III during his Quarterback Camp series for ESPN. Gruden is part of the announcement team for Monday Night Football where he gets his second close look at Griffin and the RG3skins vs. the New York Giants.

Jon Gruden on the Skins: "I’m seeing an offense that I’ve never seen before in pro football." wapo.st/QMKLsX

— Dan Steinberg (@dcsportsbog) November 28, 2012

Gruden already gushes about Griffin III. I can't wait th hear what he says Monday night, but I expect him to wear the sox Griffin gave him during the QB Camp show.

Since the Redskins are not playing Sunday afternoon, we thought this to be a good day to take a second look at the 24-minute video of Grudens Quarterback Camp featuring RGIII. We are posting this from YouTube. Hog Heaven won't begin to guess the copyriht issues here. We suggest you watch the video quick before ESPN discovers it's there.

HAIL. 

Now on Redskins.com – Griffin III, Gruden meet aboard MNF Bus.

• Both Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris are candidates for Pepsi Max Rookie of Week 12 on NFL.com. Cast your vote here.
• The Redskins attempted to claim former Eagles DE Jason Babin off waivers. The NFL awarded Babin to the Jaguars based on Jacksonville's record.
• The Redskins placed rookie ILB Keenan Robinson on Injured Reserve after he suffered a torn pectoral muscle in the Cowboys game. Like S Brandon Meriweather the week before, Robinson said he could have reentered the Cowboys game with the injury. Adrenalin can be both helpful and harmful, can't it. The Redskins filled his roster spot with three-year veteran LB Roddrick Muckelroy.
• The 'Skins added LB Bryan Kehl to the roster one day after Kansas City dropped him. The team released Mario Addison to make room for Kehl. The move adds depth to the linebacker corps where ironman London Fletcher is dealing with a sprained ankle. Fletcher was a game time decision against Dallas.
• The best-selling jersey in the NFL is Redskins No. 10. I don't need to speak the name, do I? 
• Former Redskins receiver Anthony Armstrong has been signed by the Dallas Cowboys. Former Redskins RB Ryan Torain has been signed by the New York Giants.

Image: November 21, 2012 - Tom Pennington/Getty Images North America via zimbio.com.

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