One of the biggest -- perhaps THE biggest -- problems with the Jim Zorn/Greg Blache era is that the Redskins headed into Sunday games at a disadvantage before the coin toss.  I don't mean to suggest that the team had a motivation or leadership issue, as you'll find little evidence to suggest the team wasn't ready to go onto the field and make a play.  I do mean to suggest that during the practice week, the Redskins spent too much time changing inane things to prepare for their opponent, and far too little time worring about finding weaknesses to attack.  This was a common dilemma on both sides of the ball.  The opponent would come in -- knowing very well what they would see from the Redskins -- and have just a couple of offensive plays and maybe a special teams call designed at exploiting common mistakes made by the Redskins.  On the contrary, the Redskins would go through the first quarter of the game trying to feel out an opponent that already had a feel for them.

That's not a very good explanation for why the Redskins lost 12 games.  Ultimately, when the biggest plays in the game are to be made in the second and fourth quarters, neither the defensive players nor the offensive unit was ever able to answer the bell.  One of the reasons that Washington lost to New Orleans this year was that their coverage schemes could not reconcile the amount of time their rushers were giving Drew Brees by design.  The design of the rush was fairly respectable: he's short: so get the hands up in the passing lanes, but by giving the Saints that extra two seconds in the pocket, that created downfield opportunities to exploit weak coverage players.  The coaching staff was okay trading those big plays to give Brees a headache.  And maybe that wasn't the best plan.  But the Redskins lost because Kareem Moore inexcusably fumbled an interception return, because Shaun Suisham missed a 21 yard FG from the right hash, and because Mike Sellers didn't secure the ball going into a critical sideline hit in overtime.  No amount of good coaching can overcome three seperate game-clinching mistakes, which was the story of the 2009 season.  I take great issue with some of the laziness of the Redskins defensive coaches (particularly when [not] scheming against the Giants), or Zorn creating such complicated protection schemes that players who didn't practice that week could not be expected to execute them, but a lot of the same players who made undisciplined mistakes that cost the Redskins close games in 2009 will be the core of the team that Mike Shanahan will coach in 2010.

You already knew this, but the Redskins were a terrible first quarter team last year.  The defense ranked 25th in the league in first quarter DVOA, according to FOA 2010; they ranked 11th overall on the season.  The offense scored fewer than 15% of it's total points in the first quarter.  And while the Redskins weren't a team at a consistently terrible disadvantage after one quarter on the scoreboard, why don't you try to find a way to blow a team out when you spend the first fifteen minutes of the game losing battle after battle to an inferior team?

When the Redskins hired Mike Shanahan, they expected the status quo to change.  He's expected to bring the leadership necessary to really punch bad football teams in the mouth.  Same with Donovan McNabb.  McNabb has been one of the best players in the league against teams that Philadelphia should kill, so when the Redskins play bottom-feeders like the Lions, Rams, and Bucs this year, you can honestly expect this team to be better than a very unimpressive 2-1 that featured a point differential of ZERO against three of the worst teams in football.  They may be 2-1 again against that trio (at worst), but you can rest assured that the two (or three) wins won't be remotely close ball games.

Of course, neither McNabb or Shanahan is being brought in to play better against bottom feeders.  What we need to know is whether or not the Redskins are getting an elite head coach, or just a guy who will be less lost than Jim Zorn.  Ignoring his role in personnel decisions, is Mike Shanahan still a top game day coach?  Or are the Redskins getting a guy who just wants to prove a point while he has one foot out the retirement door?

In the context of NFC East coaches, Jim Zorn was a distant fourth as a head coach, and Greg Blache was a distant fourth in the division as a defensive coordinator (and this was a division that scapegoated and fired Giants DC Bill Sheridan and Cowboys DC Brian Stewart in back to back seasons.  Both were head and shoulders above Blache).  With a retirement and a "forced retirement", the Redskins brought in two guys who were far more respected by peers to run things, Shanahan and Haslett.  Today, I will focus on Shanahan alone.

Shanahan's offensive scheme took the basic west coast offense run by Bill Walsh and Mike Holmgren, and created a ton of unique aspects unduplicated in the NFL until former Elway-backup (and then Bronco offensive coordinator) Gary Kubiak got the job as head coach of the Texans.  Shanahan was the first one to incorporate the zone running schemes into the west coast offense, which ended up being a revolutionary concept.  Teams used zone running schemes before Shanahan -- they were first used as an easy way to attack 3-4 defenses in the running game, because really good nose tackles could blow up man schemes by eating multiple blockers.  Walsh popularized the use of misdirection in NFL rushing attacks: for more or less all of the 70s, teams got away from misdirection as an offensive weapon, but Shanahan was the first to use the concept of misdirection as a mandate for his running backs.  He focused on finding guys with the vision to kill any defense that would dare to use speed to run to the ball: he could use smaller offensive lineman to neutralize bigger defensive lineman by making them run and putting them on the ground, and then he could force linebackers into a very, very lonely feeling of isolation and needing to find that runner before he found them.

Shanahan's scheme was a winner.  He turned Olandis Gary and Jake Plummer into useful players.  He turned Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, and Jay Cutler into stars.  The scheme took an organizational soldier named Mike Anderson, and turned him into an 1,000 yard rusher, a lead blocker, 3rd down back, and a special teams demon.  It couldn't do much with Brian Griese or Reuben Droughns, but that's hardly a reforendum on Shanahan's genius -- much more so on his stubbornness.

It's important to remember that while Mike Shanahan accomplished a lot while coaching John Elway, he never got to coach the hall of fame version of Elway.  He had to win with great teams and a competitive, but ultimately declining veteran quarterback (talking about the Broncos, not the Redskins).  Shanahan took over a declining, but still slightly above average pass offense (again, talking about the Broncos), but what they were badly lacking was a rushing offense (not the Redskins).  A terrible rushing attack found a sixth rounder named Terrell Davis in Shanahan's first year, and became one of the strongest rushing attacks in the league overnight.  Shanahan's passing game made the expected improvements with huge holes in the running game and a healthy quarterback, but Davis was the star, not Elway.  Davis would go on to be named to three consecutive all pro teams between 1996 and 1998.  An offensive dip in 1996 preceeded two of the most explosive super bowl offenses of all time: Elway, who had been declining, appeared to be rejuvened.  But the superstar was merely a cog in Davis' unstoppable machine.  The 1998 Broncos finished first in passing DVOA and first in rushing DVOA, the only team in the history of the metric to accomplish that (a feat more or less duplicated by the 2007 Patriots).

Criticism of Shanahan occurs in the wake of Elways retirement, but the decline of the offense had very little to do with Elway's departure: Davis was cooked by his 27th birthday.  Clinton Portis catches a lot of flak from Skins fans for not finishing his runs anymore and just generally going through the motions, but as true as that may be, give me Clinton Portis' next four seasons over any carry TD had after his 2,000 yard 1998 season.  The quarterback was also an issue: on the scale of Redskins quarterbacks of the last decade, Griese is Danny Wuerffel -- even Patrick Ramsey would have been a better player.  Shanahan oversaw below-average OFF DVOA teams in 1999, 2001, and 2006, with a noticible dip to "above average" in 2003-04 between two outstanding bookend offensive years (2002, 2005) under two different quarterbacks.  Under Jay Cutler, the Broncos went from one of the worst rushing teams in the league in 2007 to the very best in 2008, facilitating a pro-bowl type gain in his numbers that he instantly gave back in Chicago.  In the post Elway era, Shanahan coached elite offenses in 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2008.

But the variable that drives a Shanahan offense is not the quarterback, and really never has been.  The M.O. on the Broncos in the last 15 years was that they could turn anyone into a 1,000 yard rusher.  And they could.  The problem is that all 1,000 yard seasons aren't created equal, and Olandis Gary's 1,000 yard 1999 season actually obscured the fact that the Broncos could neither run, nor pass the football.  Not one Bronco made it to 750 yards in 2001, and the offense stunk.  Quentin Griffin was a terrible second running back, one of the worst Shanahan ever played, and dragged down the offense in both 2003 and 2004.  Droughns was no star in this offense, even though he got to 1,000 yards in 2004.  Also in the running for worst Shanahan back ever: Tatum Bell and Travis Henry.

Though players in this offense always managed to find 1,000 yards, there were more bad Shanahan backs than good ones.  Never was there a year where there wasn't someone in the backfield who could be good in the scheme, but Shanahan has given 200+ carries to backs who aren't NFL caliber.  Still, there haven't been long offensive droughts, as he never produced an offense outside of the top 20 in DVOA.  The 2006 Broncos were the worst offensive team Shanahan ever coached.  The next year, they were an above average team with an average running game.  By 2008, they were elite.

Every Shanahan quarterback post-Elway made the pro bowl exactly once, a streak that Donovan McNabb figures to extend.  No one, however, made it more than once.  It plays into the idea of quarterback interchangibility: we hear all about how running backs are fungible in his scheme, but the quarterback shelf life for Shanahan is about 3 to 4 seasons.  Due to age and injury history, McNabb is likely to be on the shorter side of that spread, meaning that the 2012 season will probably feature someone else playing significant time at QB.  What doesn't appear to be interchangible is the running game pacing absolutely everything Shanahan does.  The 2007 Broncos were the only Shanahan-coached offense to achieve a 25.0% or better passing DVOA without the benefit of a rushing DVOA above 7.5%.  That's a 14 year sample that suggests that Shanahan's offenses will be below the Zorn level if the rushing game stays at current levels.

In this instance, Shanahan's committment to the running game is both the motor that will power the 2010 Redskins offense, and the one thing that could potentially be its downfall.  One thing this will not be is a 2008 Jay Cutler offense: spread 'em out and throw it down the field.  There will be plenty of deception in the running game, giving the easily over-powered interior OL an opportuinty to block indecisive defensive tackles.  The Redskins will take advantage of the excellent vision that both Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson have.  Ultimately, the downfall could be the lack of explosiveness that both have to make defenses pay in the cutback game.  If the offense gets off to a sluggish start, you better believe that someone else will be given a chance at running back before McNabb is in any danger at quarterback.

Jim Zorn's constant committment to the running game was more about a distrust of his receivers than any trust in his blockers to open up running lanes.  I think this was bore out in the long run by Sherm Lewis' tendency to keep the ball off the ground in short yardage situations.  The Redskins couldn't move anyone on the ground last year, but stayed with it longer than I would have because even though they were wasting plays, they were eliminating potential mistakes.  A fresh mentality on offense should revitalize the fan base, but how does Shanahan compare to other offensive coaches in the division?

Andy Reid

Reid took over a dreadful offense with no meaningful rushing attack, and oversaw even more futility in his first season with Bobby Hoying and Donovan McNabb at the controls.  He made the playoffs in his second season, with McNabb having the most rushing yards on the team by a significant amount.  Even with a team that was making the playoffs annually, Reid's offenses were only improving incrementally.  In 2000 and 2001, the Eagles were not a good offensive team, and McNabb was a developing quarterback.  The 2002 offense was better, but still not great, as McNabb missed six games with a broken ankle, A.J. Feeley played kind of poorly in his place, without the offense missing a beat.  Then the team found Brian Westbrook in the 3rd round of the 2002 draft, and became an offensive force.

The difference between Reid and Shanahan is that McNabb didn't seem to realize any immediate benefit from having a legitimate rushing threat in his offense.  His 2003 season looked a lot like his 2002, 2001, and 2000 seasons, even as Westbrook legitimized the Eagles offense for the first time.  Clearly, though, throwing T.O. into the mix changed things, as even in Westbrook's worst year as an Eagle (excluding 2009), the Eagles had a top ten passing offense that rated about twice as high as the prior year.

Reid's offense sees the same benefits from having an elite rushing game over the years as Shanahan's, but what's clear about Reid/McNabb for so long is how largely indepedent the quality of their passing offense has been from both it's rushing and total offenses.  Like the Shanahan/Davis/Elway offenses, McNabb never seemed to be the primary driver of the group after 2002 (and that was a very mediocre group, mind you).  Westbrook drove everything.  But McNabb was capable of some great years very independent of the dominance of Westbrook, and his entire offense.  You simply never saw those great years with any of Shanahan's quarterbacks, which leads to an interesting dynamic should the Redskins struggle with the rushing attack this year.

History suggests a poor rushing attack means a mediocre Redskins offense, regardless of what McNabb does, but what McNabb does might be impressive never-the-less.  He does not appear to be bound to the quality of his running game, though his teams always were.

Tom Coughlin

Coughlin already differs a bit from Reid and Shanahan because Coughlin never called his own plays.  Still, he's another guy who took punchless (in Jacksonville's case, expansion) offenses and made strong offenses very early on in his coaching tenure.

Jacksonville's passing offense was simply always ahead of it's rushing offense.  Outside of the 1997 season where they led in total offense, Jacksonville usually produced a very mediocre rushing attack, and a passing game that was always better by a comparable margin.  The exception to the rule was Coughlin's last Jacksonville team, a really good rushing team that was still pretty mediocre overall.  These were always better than average offenses, but that's more attributable to Tony Boselli and Mark Brunell than Coughlin.

Jim Fassel's last few Giants offenses suffered from some really horrible Tiki Barber fumbling issues, some classing Ron Dayne seasons, 68 Dorsey Levens carries in 2003, and the realization that Kerry Collins couldn't carry such a flawed team.  Coughlin improved the Giants by 50 offensive points and 50 defensive points in his first year.  Couglin fixed Tiki Barber's fumbling, leading to a career year, but couldn't do anything with Dayne but release him (he surfaced in Denver with Shanahan the next year, but wasn't really helpful or harmful).  Then the biggest gains were made the second year in the passing game, which bolstered the Giants running game even further.

This was the level the Giants sustained into the 2007 season, riding out an unpredictably bad Eli Manning season into the unpredictably good 2007 playoff run, ending with a super bowl title.  The last two seasons, Coughlins offenses have been the best they've ever been, at least since the 1997 Jaguars, but at this point, they are pretty much Eli Manning's offenses.  Coughlin (and OC Kevin Gilbride) deserves a ton of credit for Manning's development into a top ten quarterback, earning his keep by fixing the players he inherited (Barber).  Tiki Barber was the Mark Brunell of Coughlin's Giants, leading the offense towards respectability when there wasn't much to work with.

Wade Phillips

Phillips was the head coach of the Broncos before Shanahan, but it's unfair to grade him by the quality of his offenses since he was never an offensive coach.  Instead, we can compare his player development record to the jobs that the other NFC East coaches did with guys like Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, Jay Cutler, Mark Brunell, Tiki Barber, Brian Westbrook, and Donovan McNabb.

Phillips could be credited for taking a pro bowl TE in Shannon Sharpe, and helping to turn him into an elite player, which certainly in turn extended Elway's career.  If we credit Phillips for this, we might discredit his job with Tommy Maddox as the heir apparent to Elway.

Phillips coached the Bills for three years, where he was noted for two things on the offensive side: phasing out Thurman Thomas and giving carries to Antwaan Smith, and giving Rob Johnson every opportunity to beat out Doug Flutie.  In both cases, credit goes to Phillips for trying to push forward with youth, but ultimately, Johnson v. Flutie ruined him in Buffalo.  I'm not sure playing Johnson was the wrong decision, but I do think the Bills were foolish to acquire him for what they did.  Also: Eric Moulds had three excellent seasons for Phillips, while Andre Reed's career pushed to a close.  Phillips was never able to get the old-timers off the roster, but clearly, he did what he could to get the younger guys playing time.

In Dallas, Phillips inherited Tony Romo as his starting quarterback, and with the offense turned over to Jason Garrett, had little (if any) contribution in developing him.  He failed to get anything out of Anthony Fasano, who was traded to Miami and thrived.  The team spent a second round pick on Martellus Bennett, who showed the same promise as Fasano, but also has failed to reach that promise.  Acquired Miles Austin from Bill Parcells, and was instrumental in getting Terrell Owens off the roster so Austin wouldn't be wasted.  Just like in Buffalo, has seen an aging offensive line go largely ignored by everyone, which will eventually lead to his firing.  He's exceeded (low) expectations here.

Conclusions

I think the job that Coughlin has done with those offenses is incredibly underrated, and that he deserves to top this list even if he defers playcalling duties to Gilbride (and Manning).  Meanwhile, as game coaches, Reid and Shanahan are more similar than they are different.  Shanahan his clearly the innovator among this group, while Reid always took more of a focus on cultivating young talent and stacking his roster with developmental players.  Reid could modify his formula to fit his personnel, while Shanahan keeps modifying personnel to fit the same formula.  Reid has a decisive advantage in the front office decisions, but on game day, these two are a wash.

You know, Wade Phillips has always done a good job developing young guys at all stops, but he probably comes in last on this list because the job of the head coach in part necessitates that he have enough pull within the organization to pull the right strings with ownership to make the right decisions.  Phillips has been saddled with aging linemen everywhere he has been, and hasn't pushed for upgrades, instead dodging being fired until these issues are too great to ignore.  He's doing this again in Dallas -- and give him credit, as Dallas is better off long term for hiring him -- but Shanahan is an improvement at head coach over Phillips.

So ranking the NFC East head coaches:

1. Tom Coughlin
2. a) Andy Reid
3. b) Mike Shanahan
4. Wade Phillips

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If you are a gamer, you don't need any incentive to add the newest version of Madden football to your video collection. But if you are a Washington Redskins fan, you'll be thrilled to know that EA Sports added Hail To The Redskins to the music track for Madden 11.

The video company announced that that fight songs for seven NFL teams will be included for musical effect. Unfortunately, the Philadelphia Eagles fight song is on the list.

Here's what you do if you pick up the game. Always beat the Eagles and you'll never have to hear "Die Eagles, Die." 

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Washington Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan is making the rounds on sports shows on the eve of training camp hawking the Redskins, setting expectations for Albert Haynesworth, and saying all the right things to a hopeful yet skeptical fanbase.

Shanahan didn't say "there's a new sheriff in town" in his redskins.com interview with Larry Weisman, but the coach implies that it's safe to root for this team again. So shell out for Redskins tickets, why don't you?

Fans don't have to temper expectations for a quick return to greatness, says Shanahan. "That’s what you should expect and that’s what the fans should expect. If you don’t have that belief, if you don’t believe and the fans don’t believe, chances are the players aren’t going to believe."

So there you go. Fans need to believe so that players can believe. Uh, isn't that supposed to work the other way around?

Shanahan considers his 8-8 finish in Denver a personal embarrassment and made clear that he does not wish to be remembered that way. He drew some stark contrasts with the prior regimes in Washington, though he may not have intended to.

Shanahan described his 35 year experience in coaching in answer to a Weisman question. During his year off, the coach visited other NFL training camps to study other coaches' methods. And he built the coaching staff who would join him when he found his next job.

Danny Snyder and Vinny Cerrato took the opposite approach in 2008, keeping most of Joe Gibbs' coaching staff, except for the two most important ones--offensive and defensive coordinators--while setting a new direction for the offense. Snyderrato took that approach after mining ideas from Jim Fassel, then didn't hire Fassel to coach the team.

Unable to hire Steve Spagnuolo or any other targeted candidate, they settled on Jim Zorn, only recently hired as rookie offensive coordinator as suggested by Fassel. Then over two seasons, Snyder over-managed and undermined Zorn.

Unlike Zorn, Shanahan's been promised complete control of football operations by the same people who promised Albert Haynesworth that he would play the same role on defense as he played in Tennessee. I'm just saying....

But Shanahan is a believer. "I don’t know what’s been done in the past. I just know [Snyder]'s letting me do everything I was hoping I could do and that’s the only way I think I can function and function well."

Shanahan says you lose your edge if you are out of the NFL for more than a year. That's why he was anxious to return to coaching this year. Interesting point. I thought of Joe Gibbs when I read that.

Mike Shanahan is the best coaching hire Danny Snyder has ever made. There is enormous reason for optimism. But can the Redskins win nine or 10 games this season? Not if you look at the first year record of all of the coaches in the Snyder era, or at Shanahan's own first year record with the Broncos and Raiders.

One can hardly expect the coach to express anything but confidence. There are tickets and corporate suites to be sold in a stadium 92,000 seats big. Danny Snyder is so toxic that he needs the new guys as fronts for that job. He once needed Marty Schottenheimer, Steve Spurrier and Joe Gibbs for that. Well, we bit on Gibbs all by ourselves.

But that whole fans-need-to-believe-so-players-believe thing is so much doo-doo. It's coaches who have to believe so players believe. Mike Shanahan just said he expects these players to win.

It's worth the price of a ticket to see how it turns out.

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It appears the Washington Redskins have turned over their sales and marketing staff, perhaps from the fallout of last year's season ticket debacle. The team has four open positions in sales and marketing listed with the online jobs board teamworkonline.com. All of those jobs focus on pushing high priced tickets to the Joe Gibbs Club Level at FedEx Field.

Club level seats have always been a tough sell. The Redskins have four hurdles to overcome this year.

 

1. It's a tough economy. Club seats are easily postponed.
2. Washington was 3-5 at home in 2009 and they played worse as the season wore on. They were 4-4 at home in 2008. At club seat prices, we expect to see wins.
3. Last year's ticket scandal revealed that a portion of club seat fans thought they were jumping their place on the season ticket waiting list by leasing club seats. The Redskins say that was never their policy. It was a tease that evidently cost a few marketing people their jobs. By clearing that up, the team cut off a segment of potential buyers.
4. Congressional ethics rules. Remembers when The Squire hosted all those political celebrities in the owners box at RFK? What a sight that was on Monday Night Football. For a lot of reasons not related to the Redskins, Congress cut itself off from those gratuities. That means that lobbyists and execs from the consulting-military-intelligence class can't entertain their prime targets. That's a shame. How's a voter to know their representatives are on the job if they don't see them at football games?

The Redskins ask R You In? Redskins Country may be the new "Show Me" State.

 

Here's the listing for the team's Business Development Executive:

The Washington Redskins are seeking highly motivated, energetic professionals as a Business Development Executive.

Principal Job Functions:

Marketing Premium Membership ticket packages to business prospects.

Job Responsibilities include:

-- Making telephone and on-site calls to business customers and prospects.

-- Updating customer information in database system

-- Assisting in the collection process

-- Providing superior customer service

-- Representing the organization in an exemplary manner

-- Exceeding monthly and long term sales goals

-- Answering customer questions in a positive and professional manner

-- Participating in Game Day and Special Event responsibilities

Job Requirements:

-- Bachelor’s degree preferred

-- Minimum of one (1) years of selling to business clients

-- Excellent telephone and communication skills required

-- Excellent time management and organizational skills required

-- Experience with pro sports ticket selling a plus

-- Basic computer skills required

The Washington Redskins offer a competitive salary and an excellent benefits package. If you wish to become a part of this exciting, fast paced organization AND you meet the requirements listed above, please apply now

NO PHONE CALLS PLEASE. We are an Equal Opportunity Employer.

Apply for this position at footballjobs.teamworkonline.com. (Registration required.)

 

 

Strapped with just two picks in the first three round of the NFL draft, and a free agent class that was very light on players worth a significant amount of money, the Redskins focused their 2010 resources on two main areas: the quarterback position and the offensive line.  Few would argue that something needed to be done about both areas of the offense, and the Redskins get participation points, certainly, for creativity in finding a way to acquire Trent Williams, Donovan McNabb, and Jamaal Brown in the same offseason.  These moves, while made with a varying degree of prudence, were all made with an ideal amount of aggression, and offer a very different prospectus for the 2010 season than you would have expected based on the results of the 2009 season.

Of course, when all of the resources you have for your offense are allocated to just two positions, that essentially means that you are skimping on others.  The Redskins have toyed with the idea of giving up more to receive Vincent Jackson -- Hog Heaven has learned that a deal has been close for at least a week -- but that the Redskins are (rightfully) reluctant to trade for Jackson unless they can move Albert Haynesworth in the deal.  Keep in mind that the Redskins aren't actively trying to get rid of Haynesworth (if they were, he'd be gone), rather, they are trying to drive up his price in the market.  This takes time, and if I had to guess, I would say that Haynesworth is probably a Redskin on opening day, and Jackson is probably a Charger, although something could happen with that before his suspension concludes in Week 4.

So with resources allocated to changing the quarterback, upgrading the offensive line, and possibly adding a deep threat to the wide receiver position, the one place that the Redskins have notably gone the "very, very available" player route is the running back position.  Using resources elsewhere is no excuse for poor performance, and the Redskins will have to strike a balance that allows them to get productivity from three (four?) guys who were very unproductive in 2009.  This article will also touch on the obvious possibility that Brian Westbrook is a Redskin by the end of the month, as to consider him part of the mix until he officially takes his services elsewhere.

Clinton Portis

Portis will turn 29 on September 1st, and this will be his ninth NFL season.  It will almost certainly be his final year in Washington, save for a ridiculous statline such as 1,250 yards on 260 carries and 7 TDs, and a subsequent "early thirties" peak had by guys such as Corey Dillon, Fred Taylor, Thomas Jones, and Curtis Martin.  Portis isn't a disimilar runner to any of those guys, but realistically, his 29 years is much closer to a 31 for a back who hasn't been doing it since age 20 (Portis' age in the 2002 preseason).

It would be wrong to suggest Clinton Portis is "done."  Portis probably has multiple years left as a strong NFL runner, and potentially a very valuable one, but it's important to note that Portis was last an "explosive" runner in 2006 at age 25.  Those days, as you may have guessed, aren't coming back.  When Portis had his 1487 yard season in 2008, he did so on a 4.3 yard per carry average and only one run over 30 yards the entire year.  Portis is simply not a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball, he's only a threat to score once he's inside the seven yard line.

Portis is best used as the lead back in this offense, but he's at his best when the team doesn't use him so much in the early season.  Perhaps one of Jim Zorn's biggest issues last season is that when the Redskins came out with a decent offensive plan -- Jason Campbell was averaging more than 8.0 yards per attempt through the first two games in a passing friendly adaptation of the spread offense, but with the team unable to consistently generate points (26 points in two games), the Redskins spent the next four weeks going to strictly pro-style power formations, taking the game out of Campbell's hands and handing it to the highly ineffective Portis.

Portis continues to chew through his many lives in Washington, though he's likely down to his very last one.  Barring a comeback player of year type season, Portis is likely to leave the Redskins quietly (for a change) in the offseason, and finish the final two or three years of his career in the New England backfield.  Portis can still carry the ball 27 times a game at two or three different points in the season, but for most of the year, he's a 10-12 carry player in this offense.  You are looking at roughly 200 carries from Portis, four touchdowns, about four yards per carry for 800-850 yards, another 150 in the air as a receiver, and most of that production during the fantasy playoffs.  For sure, he's going to be a frustrating player to have on your fantasy roster all year, but historically, December is Portis' best month, and the overall decline of his total yards isn't going to change his dominance in that month.  You're doing well for yourself if he's the third running back on your roster.

Larry Johnson

It's a lot less controversial to suggest that Larry Johnson is done as a valuable back, and while Portis might enjoy a late career rebound as a useful player, Johnson's gains are likely to be purely academic.  The zone blocking scheme is going to do wonders for a yard per carry average that fell to a paltry 3.3 last year, as Johnson should do enough in the open field to bring that number back towards 4.0 (and will probably exceed it).

The problem with Johnson is that he's almost certain to lead the team in "stuffs" at the line of scrimmage, even though Portis figures to carry the ball 50-60 more times than LJ will over the course of the season.  Johnson runs with better vision than Portis, but he also runs straight up and has so his whole career.  Johnson will probably have a run or three over 25 yards this year, including a touchdown scored from outside the five yard line, and that will make his yard per carry average look a lot more valuable than it really is.

The Redskins have long had a problem with RB usage patterns, namely, that they had such a stud runner in Portis who could take the ball inside or outside that neither Gibbs nor Saunders nor Zorn could draw up plays for the backup running backs because if it was a critical play, Portis had to be in there.  Theoretically, that's still a problem for this team: there will not be a snap where it makes more sense for Johnson to take it over Portis.  However, the difference is that the Shanahans do a much better job of really rotating their running backs in there to get Johnson his touches, even when there's no reason to get Johnson any touches.  That's good from a "saving Portis' legs" perspective, and it's good from the perspective of Johnson's fantasy owners -- 8 to 9 carries a game even when Portis is perfectly healthy, a few more when he isn't.

The biggest false myth for your fantasy draft is that Larry Johnson is going to be the Redskins' goal line back.  He will not be.  The goal line back in the Shanahan offense is more dependent on what play he's running, which might call for the hard-running/slashing style of Willie Parker, or it might call for the slashing/receiving skill set of a Brian Westbrook or Ryan Torain.  But when the goal is pure power and leg drive from inside the three yardline, Clinton Portis is still the workhorse of the group.  Johnson is the least likely Redskins back to carry on the goal line because, as mentioned above, Portis is better at it in every way.  That, and Johnson went touchdown-less in a 16 game season in 2009.

He'll score between once and three times this season, but it won't be when expected, one might come through the air, and he's good for only about 600 rushing yards spread pretty evenly over the season, but likely declining near the playoffs.  That's a very fringe use of a fantasy football roster spot.  Johnson's career will come to a close after his year or two with the Redskins.

Willie Parker

It's hard to defend the Willie Parker signing.  From an X's and O's perspective, his running style offers a small change of pace over Portis, and in an offense that prides itself on deception, Parker has some value.  But if you had any dreams of a quick third down back here, Parker has been a dreadful receiver over the last two Steelers seasons.  Combined, he has nine catches on eighteen targets (that's TWO seasons), which is probably what his receiving season here would look like if he made the team.

In addition, Parker's breakaway speed is history.  He still has great functional short area speed to use in the flats, but again, he's a terrible receiver out of the backfield.  If Parker makes the team, he's probably going to spend most of the season as an inactive scratch from the team in favor of a different third running back, be it Keiland Williams, Brian Westbrook, Ryan Torain, or Mike Sellers.

If you really understand what it is like to go through a Shanahan training camp, you'd understand just how far Willie Parker's back is against the wall here.  If the team signs Brian Westbrook, he might just get Parker's roster spot straight up.  When you look at a highly touted college player such as Keiland Williams, and the fact that Mike Shanahan has never been shy about starting rookie runners who he thought had earned their playing time, Parker becomes just a placeholder on that roster spot.  But then you consider that even if Parker plays well in camp, he doesn't even have the contractual security to force Larry Johnson off the roster, as Johnson got guaranteed millions in his three year contract, and Parker just got a salary that becomes fully guaranteed if he makes the roster for Week 1 (which makes him even less likely to make it).

If Parker makes it, you can pencil him in for 70 carries, split by a week or two as the feature back, and about eight other weeks where he's active and gets about four or five carries in the game.  He's going to average about 3.6 yards per carry for a 250 yard season.  I'm not projecting him to find the endzone this year.

Brian Westbrook

If Westbrook is signed by the Redskins before training camp, he becomes the second most valuable back on the roster from a fantasy perspective, and probably the number one guy from a football perspective.  Carry-wise, Parker's estimate of 70 is probably accurate for him, and you can bump that up by 20 or 25 if you're going to project him for 14 or more active games, which might be foolish given his injury history.

Westbrook would be a good bet to lead the team in yards per carry, as he's yet to drop under 4.0 for his career.  He's a 4.5 YPC back in this offense, which would project him for between 350 and 500 rushing yards depending on which end of the "Brian Westbrook health spectrum" your faith falls in.  He could score one or two times on the ground from distance, but he could also emerge as a valuable receiver in the red zone where Donovan McNabb absolutely loves him.  In a full season, that might be another 8 total TDs, but in a half season as a third running back, that's closer to 3 or 4.  Still, 6 total TDs from a guy who is 100% available in late July is pretty much a steal, and touchdown scoring is going to be Westbrook's primary use in the twilight of his career.

Keiland Williams

Some talent evaluators believe that Williams might be the best pro prospect to come from the LSU backfield in quite some time.  Teammate Trindon Holliday was drafted in the 6th round for his world-class speed, and this backfield featured Charles Scott, but when you look at the Redskins draft, you can't help but notice that two of the players that they selected are Louisiana based athletes who simply weren't rated highly on any boards: LB Perry Riley (LSU), and TE Dennis Morris (Louisiana Tech).  Williams' spot on the roster would be strange otherwise, but clearly, the Redskins signed him thinking that they came away with the best player in the offensive backfield of the Tigers.

Whether Williams is good enough to make the team remains to be seen, but unless Brian Westbrook signs soon, Williams is probably the odds on favorite to be the Redskins' third running back this year.  And in Shanahan-land, that means an injury away from being a no. 1 RB in the NFL. Clearly, the guy is smart enough to notice a good situation when he sees it, and I'd probably take 2 to 1 odds this night that Keiland Williams is the next 1,000 yard runner for the Redskins.

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Washington Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan is hopeful that Donovan McNabb is the quarterback he expects him to be and that Albert Haynesworth will show up at training camp in shape and ready to play any position assigned to him.

Meh. Shanahan gave fluff answers to soft ball questions pitched to him on TOTAL ACCESS in the NFL Network last Friday.

I'm more disappointed in the questions asked of Shanahan than by his answers. TOTAL ACCESS might have asked Shanahan's thoughts about break-out players who impressed during the OTAs, or for any thoughts about, oh say, Vincent Jackson. The NFL Network wasn't up to the job. 

It's fair to point out NFL Network's delicate position. You cannot be the league-owned network and ask leading questions of a star coach that lures him into a violation of NFL policies against tampering.

Not that Shanny would have answered anything specific on those topics. Perhaps specific questions were off limits. In that case there was no point to the interview. TOTAL ACCESS would have done just as well to spend more time with Seattle Seahawk head coach Pete Carroll, which they mostly did anyway. 

Here's my close transcription of the Shanahan segment of TOTAL ACCESS: 

On what is it like taking a team and turning it around:

I've been the league for 20 years and you have ups and downs to put a team together that gives you a chance to do something to win this year.

On Donovan McNabb:

Well, donovan has a learning curve to go through. He has to learn a new terminology like learning a new language. He's done a great job coming in. Hopefully he can do the things we expect to get done.

On what Shanahan and his staff want to see from Albert Haynesworth:

We've had guys working for the last four and five months . We're trying to put the best football team together. Hopefully, when Albert does come in, he'll be playing extremely hard and is in great shape. Regardless of whatever position we play in we want him to help us win. At the end of the day, hopefully he will do that.

Are you implying [that] Albert will not play nose tackle?

Albert will play the best position to help us win. We talked to his agent and gave him the option to find a new position, but he took the money. Whatever the position, he is going to do what we think will put us in the best chance to win a championship. (Emphasis mine.)

NFL.com published the segment of the interview dealing with Haynesworth.

Shanahan must have been making the rounds last week. WFAN in New York interviewed coach Shanahan and asked nearly the same questions and got nearly the same answers. Read the transcript on sportsradiointerviews.com.

Indianapolis Colts center Jeff Saturday was the in studio guest host on TOTAL ACCESS. He was asked to rank the Best In The Bis defensive tackles. Saturday listed Haynesworth as tied for fifth place along with Tennessee Titans Tony Brown (no relation, dammit) and Minnesota Vikings Kevin Williams.

Says Saturday, Haynesworth could be No.1 "anytime he wants to play." Interesting that Saturday listed Haynesworth in tandem with Tennessee's Brown. That's more evidence that a players performance is affected by the players around him.

Cowboys defensive tackle Jay Ratliff was fourth on Saturday's list. Rounding out the list from third to first place was Kris Jenkins (Jets), Vince Wilfork (Patriots) and Haloti Ngata (Ravens).

    

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Redskins Hog Heaven fans have spoken. The Washington Redskins will win nine or more games in 2010 according 58.6 percent of those responding to a poll on this site.

Here's the breakdown of fan votes (percentages are rounded):

• 10 or more games - 30.1%
• 9 games - 28.5%
• 8 games - 22.0%
• 7 games - 10.7%
• 6 or fewer games - 8.6%

Wow. Whatever happened to the bell curve? I looked for a voting bulge around eight games. Lets chalk this up to off-season optimism.

Since 2001, the Redskins have averaged a 7-9 record in the first year of a new head coach's era. Sports book bodog.com pegs the over/under on Redskins wins this year at 7.5 games. Mike Shanahan went 8-8 in his first year as head coach with Denver (1995). And that was with John Elway and Terrell Davis in the backfield.

I'm just saying....

New poll going up today: Has Daniel Snyder changed? Let your voice be heard. Vote!