In which the author unnecessarily and critically picks at the Redskins roster to find areas that can improve over the next three months leading up to the season.

1) The Redskins aren't well hedged against the career years they enjoyed in 2012

This is perhaps the most serious issue for the Redskins for this upcoming season.  For the first time in at least four years, the concept of regression towards the mean will not be working in favor of the Redskins, it will be working against them.  That means instead of getting to make the argument that "we're a lot closer to contention than a lot of people are giving us credit for," the team must be aware that the other teams in the NFC East (and the rest of the NFC) are the ones that get to establish that argument against the Redskins this year.  And looking around the rest of the conference, a small step back could mean rock bottom.

A year ago, I pointed out that the Redskins beating the Giants in the regular season suggested that maybe there wasn't a huge talent gap between the 5-11 Redskins and the super bowl champion Giants.  Two games is just that: two games, so there were no conclusive observations to be made, but simply being aware that the talent gap between the top five NFL teams and bottom five teams can typically be closed in a year and a half given the wise use of resources, it wasn't that shocking that the 2012 Redskins were able to enjoy a similar season to the 2011 Giants, minus of course the playoff success that they may have if Robert Griffin III was healthy at the end of the year.  I think the Redskins closed that gap a lot quicker than many were anticipating, but they did it not by dark magic, they did it by loading future resources into 2012 by way of a massive trade for a top player.  Landing Alfred Morris in the 6th round didn't hurt.

Now comes the challenging part.  The best is yet to come for Griffin, who despite a sensational rookie year, has elements of the passing game where he can make major improvements still.  But you can't say things about guys who had those once-in-a-career years, guys like Alfred Morris, Chris Chester, Will Montgomery, Rob Jackson, (maybe) Logan Paulsen, and a career half-season from Pierre Garcon (that seven game run is not possible without Garcon playing over his head, but he can provide that level of value over a healthy full season), and of course everyones personal favorite: a career single-game from Brandon Meriweather.

If you estimate the 2013 performance of these players at what they have been in their careers, not what they were for the Redskins in 2013, you're giving up a lot of good football plays despite putting the same players right back on the field.  If we simply regress Alfred Morris' expectation to the average Mike Shanahan system running back (historically a very good player), we'd be giving up a lot of great plays he made down the stretch that helped the Redskins win games.

Maybe more significant to the Redskins, is that a number of players not on that list above played very well during the seven game stretch (which includes Griffin), and couldn't even sustain that level of performance for the whole 2012 season, much less will be able to repeat it in 2013.

Maybe Chester and Montgomery will stay healthy all year and the Redskins can repeat their level of play on the offensive line, keeping the interior three as a major team strength.  I think I'd bet on that before I'd bet on Alfred Morris breaking his own team rushing record again.  However, as they have had to in every other season ever, the Redskins are going to have to find creative ways to replace the performance of those who went above and beyond in 2012.  After all: that's what going above and beyond is.  

The big question what is the organizations plan to handle regression when it works against them, instead of for them?  That is what I mean by 'hedging.'

2) The defense really picked up RG3 down the stretch

Which is a really good thing, but Griffin probably drops Rookie of the Year honors to Russell Wilson if his defense didn't really improve those last three games.  The secondary in particular (without the benefit of any pass rush whatsoever) really held down some good passing games after the Thanksgiving near-debacle against the Cowboys.  Particularly against the Giants on Monday Night: the offense didn't really even show up for that game, and the Redskins managed to keep the Giants out of the end zone for the most part.  The pass defense kept that going into the playoffs against the Seahawks as well (although Lynch and Wilson scored the Skins on the ground).

None of this is a problem really, that the Redskins defense may be better than it showed in 2012.  But the issue is that it's one less area where the Redskins can expect improvement in 2013.  They didn't really improve the personnel at all in the offseason, they're just going to gamble on the guys who they missed because of injury last year.  Speaking of which...

3) The best predictor of future injury is past injury

The Redskins have always been a team that trends towards the weaker end of the injury spectrum.  This was one of the major downfalls of the Cerrato-Zorn era.  But the Shanahan era was supposed to be different.  And outside of a fluky 2011 year on the defensive side of the ball, it really hasn't been any different.  The Redskins probably should have cleaned house on the medical staff at the point where they let Cerrato and Zorn go, but with the staff mostly the same, the results have been mostly the same.  Furthermore, even the staunchest Mike Shanahan defenders would admit that the accomplished coach says really inane things regarding the health and injury status of his roster (even getting fined at times for misreporting), and his decision making with regard to Robert Griffin's situation and a number of others has come under fire.

The Redskins are clearly banking on having better injury luck in 2013 than they enjoyed in 2012, but the lines between injury luck and injury skill have never been more blurred than right now.  What we do know is that: predicting injuries is nearly impossible, but if you were going to try to start such a fool's game, you'd probably begin with the players who were hurt in 2012 and 2011: Brandon Meriweather, Brian Orakpo, Adam Carriker, Pierre Garcon, Josh Wilson, Jarvis Jenkins, London Fletcher, Tyler Polumbus, Robert Griffin, Keenan Robinson, Roy Helu, Leonard Hankerson, Josh Morgan, Santana Moss, DeAngelo Hall, Kory Lichtensteiger, Fred Davis, and Trent Williams have all missed snaps due to injuries in the last two years.  Many of those players will be healthier in 2013.  Others will not.  When it comes to injuries, I prefer my predictions to be very generalized.

4) How deep is the team at critical positions?

Based on the scheme the Redskins run, they have been able to skimp a bit in the secondary over the years because it's not that important to have top talent at those corner and safety positions.  But at linebacker?  The Redskins are trying to get deeper at those positions.  They have weathered the loss of Lorenzo Alexander fairly well this offseason, but Alexander was only a major player in the defense in 2010 because there was simply no one else.  Rob Jackson had a great year in relief of Brian Orakpo, but I'd stop short of terming Jackson "quality depth".  He is depth, but this team needs Orakpo for 13+ games this year.  Same with Darryl Tapp and Brandon Jenkins.  They represent depth, but quality depth (the kind you see in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Houston) is more elusive.  Keenan Robinson could be quality depth for London Fletcher and Perry Riley, but we simply don't have a great feel there yet.  We do know the run defense was not spectacular last season.

It's the same deal at the quarterback position.  Kirk Cousins, Pat White, and Rex Grossman give the Redskins depth that can handle the position in case of a change of plans in RG3's timetable, but getting a quality performance from the position requires Griffin to be healthy.  The Redskins have depth on the offensive line, but little by way of established performers.  Tight end may be the exception, where the Redskins have quality players to go with their starters, but the uncertainty there is in Fred Davis' achillies.

The Redskins are a fairly deep team heading into year four of the Mike Shanahan Experience, but they are short on quality depth, which kind of comes with the territory when you gut the roster like our front office did two years ago, and then trade a lot of draft picks to get your quarterback.  There's not a ton of waiting-in-the-wings talent from the draft.  If those draft picks from 2012 and 2013 show traits that fit the Redskins scheme, they'll be in the starting lineup sooner rather than later.

5) The roster cannot really carry Robert Griffin III, and the coaches will still need to work overtime to keep him effective

Which, I feel like the Redskins knew when they made the trade to draft RG3.  If he's gone for a period of time or goes though an extended stretch of ineffective play, the Redskins kind of saw what would happen during the final three quarters of the playoff game against Seattle.  The roster is still set up to be put on the back of RG3 as soon as he is healthy.  My single biggest point of concern for the season is that the Redskins coaching staff -- having worked extremely hard to get to the playoffs last season -- rests on their laurels a bit while the roster really isn't better than last year's roster which started the season 3-6.

What the Redskins proved in 2012 is that they had a plan for Griffin from day one.  They didn't just take him and hope for the best.  They took him and used him very aggressively.  I feel like the plan calls for more diversity from the offense in year two.  The Redskins are out to score a lot of points and have a lot of fun in doing so.  As soon as Griffin gets cleared to play, I think the Redskins can go right back to being much of the same team they were in 2012.

For all the warning signs we have on the roster that would suggest that the Redskins probably aren't ready to take the jump to Super Bowl Favorite this season (and I don't believe they are), there is also little reason to suggest that the performance from last season was unsustainable.  If you take away only one piece of wisdom from this article, I hope to help everyone understand that the margin of error in the NFC East is just very slight.  The Redskins can't just decide to take it on the chin for a month while they let Griffin get healthy, because they don't have another seven game winning streak waiting in the cards.  The Redskins traded to get this quarterback because they believe he has special qualities.  And when you get special players, you don't try to limit them, you need to give them the assistance they need to be special.

Another NFC East title is a very attainable goal for the Washington Redskins in 2013, and if they can address the five issues outlined above, it becomes a likelihood.

It's no secret that we have a love-hate relationship with CB DeAngelo Hall here at Hog Heaven. We felt he was overpaid for the value he delivered, which was a product of ex-GM Vinny Cerrato and former DC Greg Blache massive over-reaction to a good day Hall had against Dallas.

A legion of Redskins fans bought into it; they still do actually. All of that based on the notion that interceptions are the only measure of a cornerback's value.  Hall's, um, "competitive fire" is also an issue problem. He has hurt the Redskins as much as he helped them.

Hall agrees in one respect. His contract, and that of Albert Haynesworth, was a team detriment. Here's what Hall said yesterday when interviewed on the NFL-Network:

“We started something here in Washington with coach [Mike] Shanahan,” Hall said. “That was the biggest thing I wanted to stress. I felt like my contract along with Haynesworth was the reason we were in the situation we were in. So for me it wasn’t about the money. I wanted to come back here, I wanted to finish something I started; I grew up in the Virginia Beach area, I’m a local kid, went to Virginia Tech so I wanted to be a part of this football team. I’ve been a part of it when we weren’t so good so to finally be on the cusp of being great, I want to be a part of that. I was willing to take that pay cut and get back on this football team and help us win.”

The story of the salary cap sanction on the Redskins because of Hall and Haynesworth's contract has been told many times. It is interesting to hear one of the players involved acknowledge their role in it. (Hog Heaven doesn't blame the player for taking the money.)

Hall revealed other aspects about these new Redskins. Washington is a place players want to be. That's why Shanahan expects veteran free agents return when he lets them test the market.  We have seen this now with Hall, Chris Cooley, Fred Davis and London Fletcher. Teams on the rise can do this.

That was an option Daniel Snyder and, to a lesser degree, Joe Gibbs did not have. They had to over-pay their free agent keepers to induce them to stay, while squeezing other keepers off the roster (Think: Antonio Pierce, Carlos Rogers and Ryan Clark). There's a different feel around Redskins Park now.

Hall was scheduled to make $8 million under his old contract. He re-signed with the 'Skins for a $2 million deal in April that included up to $1 million in incentives and a $250,000 signing bonus. We like D.Hall a lot better with an appropriate contract.

Hall answered other questions for NFL-N. When asked if Kirk Cousins was ready to step in for Robert Griffin III:

"From the moment we saw Kirk ... we thought he was special. It was a shame he was drafted with RG, so we kinda didn't think we would get a chance to see him play. You know, from watching him in practice. For him to actually get a chance to play in a football game and lead the team, guys definitely rallied behind him. RG was probably one of his biggest fans and supporters, so if we have to go out there with Kirk we definitely feel confident. You know he's won a game for us before and you know if he has to do it again we will definitely be ready for it."

Will Robert be ready? What do you think?

 "I think so. Um, you know I'm not a doctor. I haven't really been following his progress, but when I see him walking around, running around this place, you'll find no other guy who works as hard as him, who is more dedicated to getting back on the field to help this team win football games. He's doing everything physically possible to get ready."

They drafted three DBs. They trying to get rid of you?

Hall invoked the spirit of the sainted Darrel Green to answer this one. Hall talked to Green who told him that the he (Green) kept beating out the rookies brought in to compete with him.

"I feel great. I feel  great. Some of these young guys we got, they look great. We had a chance to see Rambo and David Amerson already and, um, I'm gonna teach those guys all I know. They look good so far and I look forward to the challenge."

NFL.com posted the video clip of Hall's interview that you can see here.
 

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Is Jawan Jamison the next Mike Shanahan running back discovery?

My assumption of the meaning of "steal of the draft" means a player that comes in and starts and performs far above his draft selection number his ROOKIE year.  Last year's 'steal' was clearly Alfred Morris.  But we should note that the improvement of Morris from the first half of the season to the second half was remarkable.  So that even a 'steal' is going to change quite a bit over the season.

I believe the top candidates for steal of the 2013 draft are (note only ONE or TWO of these will possibly break out):
1) Jawan Jamison, RB
2) Marvin Burdette, LB
3) Philip Thomas, S
4) Bacarri Rambo, S
5) Jason Thompson, WR
6) Brandon Jenkins, LB
7) Chris Thompson, RB

I think Xavier Nixon has potential 2-3 years from now, but he will not ace it his rookie year in the pros as a practice squad member or inactive bench warmer.  Jordan Reed and David Amerson I see as potentially breaking out their 2nd or 3rd years.

Let's go through the rationale.

Jawan - watch out Royster and Helu. This guy is a nightmare in the open field and can catch and block. He's very young and coachable (talking to you Helu and your lousy health upkeep).  He ran well with bad blocking, just the kind of guy that can succeed with our overrated offensive line.  Had he stayed in school a full 4 years he would have been a first or second-round pick.  He has something to offer now and his motivation and character are at Morris/Griffin levels.

Burdette - This guy is a tackling monster.  Number one in the nation.  Great character, motivation, chip on his shoulder for being 4 inches too short.  4 inches taller and a true 40 time (was hurt due to an injury) and he is a top 20 pick of the draft.  He is our answer to Alexander on special teams.  Watch out Kehl - this guy will take your roster spot.  We need someone that can tackle Marshawn Lynch alone and he is an answer.  The great thing about a UDFA is that, if they make the team, that alone makes them a steal of the draft.

Thomas - Prepare not to freak out when he gives up a few blown plays.  He will get better and he will shine.  Gomes had has chance and he blew it.

Rambo - he makes the team but will hardly see the field the first half of the season unless Meriweather's knees buckle again.  He has great size, good speed, and a nose for the ball.  Can't wait to hear 'Rambo' chants at FedEx Field and see the new number 2 selling football jersey in the nation after RG3...

Lance Lewis - a long shot to make the team.  His college numbers are off the charts.  It's sink or swim time for the (Dezmon) Briscoe kid.  I think he chases women better than the ball at this point and he's a goner.  Lewis is a big target who could take Briscoe's spot.  If he can keep his speed and add 12 pounds of muscle, he can do some serious damage.  We need receivers that can do well against the big Seahawks secondary.  Our receiver corps looked horrendous against the Seahawks for three out of the four quarters, and I hope we see some big improvements this year.

Jenkins - I think it's easy to have him come in and just bull rush Romo.  A few Romo cracked ribs roasted on Astroturf and this kid is a rookie legend. (This is meant to be a joke. Next to greed, hypocrisy and Salary CapGate, injuries are the most distasteful part of the NFL.)

Chris Thompson - The Shanahan's want a 4.3 speed down the sidelines threat to help open up the middle of the field.  Since they are too conservative to give Robinson the ball (one attempt all year, 15 yards - duh Kyle try it twice) and they blew out RG3's knee, Thompson can fill that role.  If he makes the team and breaks 4 40 yard plus runs this year, he's a steal.

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Redskins owner Dan Snyder: 'We will never change the name of the team' cbsprt.co/10eeexW

— Eye on Football (@EyeOnNFL) May 9, 2013

@eyeonnfl But ... he didn't actually SAY the name of the team. I'll say it. I love the #Redskins I AM a Redskins. Not a slur on me.

— Anthony Brown (@SkinsHogHeaven) May 9, 2013

Dan Snyder is officially one of the greatest owners in sports. After he said that the Redskins will never change their name. Hail Dan. HTTR

— Paul Singleton (@BigManPauly) May 9, 2013

Here's proof that "Redskins is "Money," It's as good as gold – US gold bullion, to be exact. HAIL to the Yes.

Redskins.com: WR Thompson intriguing big-bodied target.

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We gather all mobile responses and respond to them on Wednesdays. However, most reaction to Hog Heaven stories appear on our Twitter page (@skinshogheaven) and occasionally on our Facebook page.

The best way to share your thoughts with Hog Heaven readers is directly on the site through the "Comments" hyperlink on the page.  Don't keep your thoughts to yourself. Discuss.

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And if Woody Johnson owned the Redskins, Tebow would already be here. Draw your own inferences about Johnson after he brought Tim Tebow to the New York Jets ... to get in the way of coaches who clearly did not want him.

Davis is normally a good football analyst. He and Marshall Faulk are the two former players I most respect on cable's NFL Network. But it is airtime silly season with everyone guessing where Tim Tebow will land next now that the Jets dumped him.

Good theater. Tortured logic

The talking heads speculate that Tebow will land on a quarterback-needy team or on a team with a coach who had a personal connection to him.

That thinking has yet to play out (see below **), so Davis resorted to an out-dated fallback – linking the Redskins to a big name free agent. 'Skins fans everywhere gagged in unison.

NFL.com carries a video of Davis' offending comments that you can watch here.

Oddly, Davis opens his comment by explaining why Tebow would be a poor fit for the New England Patriots. Why would the Patriots ever want the ball out of Tom Brady's hands? He never asks the same question of the Redskins. Why would they want the ball out of Robert Griffin III's hands?

Allen based his argument on Mike Shanahan, Washington's football czar who could dictate the offense without interference from above, Davis' soft swipe at the Jets organization.

The point about Shanahan is the only one Davis got right. The flaws in the rest of his argument are numerous.

Davis thinks the Shanahan's called all of Griffin's running plays, as opposed to leaving it to RGIII's option. Shanahan was almost as surprised by Griffin's running as were opposing defenses. Shanahan has already said that he wants Griffin to run less in the future and out of bounds more often. Why bring in Tebow to run out of bounds from the pistol formation?

The Redskins read option worked because Griffin, unlike Tebow, is a genuine duel threat. If the opponent defends against Griffin's running, he kills them with his deadly accurate passing. It's Griffin, not the scheme, that made this work.

That's the mistake made by Johnson and the Jets. No team worries about Tebow's passing. His passing skill puts the lie to read-option. If Tim Tebow is in the game, you defend against his running threat. You react to his non-threatening passing. If Tebow and Alfred Morris were in the backfield together, opponents would simply crowd the box with eight or nine players.    

Show RGIII eight defenders in the box and he might complete a pass to himself for a touchdown. He is (presumably still) just that fast.

The last factor is Griffin the rookie vs. Griffin the first year player. Griffin played his entire college career at Baylor without a playbook. Kyle Shanahan after the 2012 Draft presented him with the first one he ever saw. The read-option provided Griffin the best chance at immediate success.

Now, Griffin has a year's experience with that playbook. Joe Gibbs once said that teams change about 30 percent of their playbook every year. The past is no indication of how much read-option we will see this season. Only Shanahan and Griffin know that. Even they won't know how much until training camp. That's too late to bring in a quarterback.

Tebow to the Redskins? Don't make me laugh. Even Mr. Snyder isn't that stupid.
_________________________

** Teams looking for quarterbacks filled the need before the NFL Draft (Chiefs, Raiders), or during it (Bills). The Jaguars are steadfast in their rejection of Tebow.

The personal connections are either to Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels who, as Broncos head coach, selected Tebow in the 2010 NFL Draft, or to Mike McCoy, now head coach of the San Diego Chargers. When he was the OC for the Denver Broncos in 2011, McCoy changed his whole offense to accommodate Tebow's peculiar talents.  

Hog Heaven doesn't understand the notion of converting Tebow to another position like tight end or fullback. For one thing, I can't find video of him catching a ball in game.  Redskins fans are watching Niles Paul struggle to convert to tight end, and Paul is a former receiver. The Redskins and most teams these days use fullbacks to block. Tebow would have to compete, as a blocker, with Darrel Young. Past glory at quarterback will not help. 

Joe Gibbs won a Super Bowl with fullback named John Riggins. Tebow is built like Riggins. That's old man football, bro' The Redskins don't run the downfield offense anymore. These are not your father's Redskins.

The Redskins don't need Tebow to sell tickets. I fear Mr. Tebow, like fellow Florida Seminole legend Danny Wuerffel, has taken his last snap as a NFL quarterback.

Find something else to talk about.