While doing a little housekeeping on Hog Heaven, I came across this old story posted September 5, 2012: Bet on it, Robert Griffin III will pass for 3700 yards and 22 touchdowns.

My friends at online sportsbook Bovada.lv shared their preseason performance projection of Robert Griffin III and other Redskins players. The regular season is over and second season is about to begin; making this is a good time for a look back.

Bovada projected an Andy Dalton-like performance from Griffin III. RGIII was better than advertised, but Bovada and Predictionmachine.com were close on his stat projection. Here's a table showing Griffin's actual performance compared to his preseason projection, and to Andy Dalton's rookie year stats.

The difference is in RGIII's projected rushing stats. No one could have guessed that the Shanahan's would call so many designed quarterback runs, especially after the inflexibility they showed with Donovan McNabb. They took a few nimble-thinking pills when given a second chance with Griffin. I would not call the change in direction a miss by the sportsbooks.

Interesting. RGIII has more rushing TDs than INTs.

Dalton was runner up to Cam Newton for AP 2011 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Bengals finished 9-7 in 2011 with Dalton at quarterback, a five-win improvement over 2010.

Our story that day also covered the over/under of other players important to the Redskins.

Santana Moss - Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                       700½
Actual yards                      573                        

Santana Moss - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                       5
Actual TDs                         8

Pierre Garcon - Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                       975½
Actual yards                       633

Pierre Garcon - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                       6
Actual TDs                        4

Fred Davis - Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                        850½
Actual yards                       325

Fred Davis - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season

Over/Under                       5
Actual TDs                         0

Brian Orakpo - Total Sacks in the 2012 Regular Season

Over/Under                       9
Actual Sacks                      1

DeAngelo Hall - Total Interceptions in the 2012 Regular Season

Over                                      3½
Actual INTs                         4

Garcon, Davis and Orakpo missed significant time, 14 games in Orakpo's case. Rob Jackson, who replaced Orakpo, needed a little time to warm up, but ended the season with 4½ sacks, seven passes defended, four INTs – one was a pick six – and two forced fumbles.

There were no preseason projections for Alfred Morris, even from within the Redskins. There will be plenty on Morris in 2013 if only for peace of mind for all the fantasy 'ballers out there.

Keep your friends close, and your player personnel director closer

The Redskins show signs of possessing a true next-man-up roster, and of making the correct keep or release decisions about players. So, I'm deeply concerned about the Arizona Cardinals' interest in Morocco Brown, Redskins Director of Player Personnel, as a general manager candidate.

Hog Heaven is not privy to the inner workings of Washington's front office, but talent acquisition has a different feel these past two seasons. I've supported the Shanaplan after the McNabb debacle. I presume Brown had a large role in that success.

Although I'm not sure what he did, I'm not comfortable with the thought of his leaving now. But then, we haven't seen interest in Redskins staff and coaches since the Gibbs I era. It's a new sensation.

When you are successful, other teams poach your management talent. I wouldn't want to stand in the way of Mr. Brown's career progression. Short of that, I hope Mike Shanahan and Mr. Snyder are doing all that is needed to keep Brown happy and here.

Image: Robert Griffin III found on csmonitor.com via Google.

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–

I had the pleasure of writing a Washington Redskins playoff preview in the very early days of the Redskins Hog Heaven blog.  That preview was written five years ago in the shadow of the Sean Taylor murder, in the wake of an unlikely playoff run led by Todd Collins, and was about the trip to Seattle that the Redskins earned by finishing the season with four straight wins.

This Redskins team is better than that 2007 team, although not quite as strong as Joe Gibbs' best team of this past decade, the 2005 wild card team.  The common link between those three seasons is that, no matter how many games in a row the Redskins needed to win in order to make the playoffs (4, 5, and 7 respectively), the Seattle Seahawks always sat waiting in the playoffs.

Them again

The biggest difference this time isn't with the Redskins, but with the Seahawks.  According to one comprehensive measure, Seattle has been the best team in football this year.  But despite the fact that the 2012 Seahawks figure to be the best Seahawks team in franchise history, the overall competitiveness of the NFC West means that Seattle lost the division to San Francisco by a half game, just two years after they won the division at 7-9.  That solved the single biggest problem the Redskins have had to deal with during their prior two playoffs: trips across the country to the Pacific Northwest.

This isn't just something that works out in favor of the Redskins; the Seahawks have had a similar end to their last four playoffs. They all ended during trips to the Midwest (2005 - Detroit [SB XL], 2006 - Chicago, 2007 - Green Bay, 2010 - Chicago).  

As someone who lives in the Midwest, I am uniquely qualified to point out that Washington is actually significantly farther from Seattle than the Midwest is.  Based on geography alone, Seattle's 2012 playoff run doesn't set up very well.

The Redskins' run sets up a little bit better, as there is a very good chance they can follow up a home playoff win with an easy jaunt to Atlanta before being forced to pack the wagon train for San Francisco or Green Bay for the NFC Championship.  

This is getting ahead of ourselves, given that Seattle is favored on the road over the Redskins by about three points.  And while this isn't going to be the only time the Redskins are underdogs in this playoff field, it is very clear that the Redskins have no harder competitor than the team they drew first.

The Seahawks have remained remarkably healthy all season.  What's more, it's hard to imagine a matchup between two teams with more similarities than the Redskins and the Seahawks.  

On the same day that the Redskins dropped the home game to Cam Newton's Panthers (a loss that doesn't look as bad as it once did), the Seahawks dropped a game to the Detroit Lions. Detroit wouldn't win another game all year.  From that point on, the Redskins and Seahawks combined to go 14-1.

New school football

However, it's not about the record with these teams; it's about the way that both have relentlessly torn down established pro football orthodoxies over the course of the season.  

A passing league?  Sure it is, but these two teams have been better at running the football than any other in pro football this year (Seattle's 16.7% Rushing DVOA narrowly edged Washington's 16.3% for tops in the NFL).  

Can't mortgage your future for a single player?  Washington cashed in its chips for perhaps the NFL's Rookie of the Year.  

Can't find quality quarterback talent down in the draft?  Seattle has a player who might steal the Offensive Rookie of the Year from Robert Griffin, and they found him in the third round.  

Can't win games with rookies?  The Redskins are winning games led by both a rookie QB and a rookie RB in Alfred Morris.  The teardown of established football truisms by these two organizations has been rather systematic.

This makes this playoff matchup a treat for football fanatics not only because the strategy employed on the field will be so intriguing, but also because the winner of the game is instantly a super bowl front-runner.  

The Redskins will only be able to compete with the Seahawks if Robert Griffin makes a remarkable recovery from his injured knee to become the player he was earlier in the year: fearless inside and outside the pocket.  

Griffin ran effectively against the Dallas Cowboys last week because the scheme kept the Cowboys reacting to the action on the field instead of attacking Griffin.  Griffin's athleticism was not as effective because he was not much quicker than the Cowboys players were.  The Seahawks are both faster and more explosive than the Cowboys in the front seven.

Game planning

Seattle is going to get into Griffin's face most of the day.  If he can still execute the throws required by this offense by demonstrating good fundamentals and accuracy, Seattle won't be able to slow the Redskins' offense.  This is a major question at this moment, given the lack of confidence Griffin demonstrated in his own knee, and the relative (to himself) inaccuracy of his passes.

Defensively, the Redskins are going to have a ton of trouble with Seattle's running game because they are not very good across the board at tackling, and no player breaks more tackles than Seattle running back, Marshawn Lynch.  Combined with Russell Wilson's mobility, the Seattle rushing attack figures to put up both yards and points.  

Through the air, the Seahawks have been fantastic in the second half of the season.  However, the Redskins might enjoy a surprise advantage, based on the kind of looks they were able to create against Tony Romo last week.  Russell Wilson is a lot more mobile than Romo and will be able to get outside contain if the Redskins were to use the exact same blitz packages.

But the Seahawks may prove susceptible to the same type of blitz preparation the Redskins put in last week against the Cowboys.  The Redskins can easily take advantage of Russell Wilson's lack of height, by changing the look very late in the pre-snap process.  

Wilson needs to identify the position of the safeties earlier in the process than a taller quarterback may (to be fair, this is likely true of Robert Griffin as well), and like Romo, will need to predetermine the location of his outlet receiver if the Redskins bring pressure.  

Through thorough film study, the Redskins should have success limiting the passing game of the Seahawks and the pressure schemes should allow them to enjoy an extra advantage against the Seahawks rushing attack by creating penetration against Marshawn Lynch.

The Seahawks' receiving corps is incredibly similar to the Redskins', although Sidney Rice is the best receiver on either team, and he's having another great year.  Golden Tate and Pierre Garcon are very much the same player at this point in their careers, and Doug Baldwin is a young version of Santana Moss.  Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell is enjoying the same kind of career resurgence as Kyle Shanahan by taking a very young offense and getting elite production against NFL defenses.

Beyond the Seahawks...if

I like the Redskins in this game, so long as improved health is granted to Griffin.  If Wilson outplays Griffin, the Seahawks have too many other advantages on the field (and are overall a better team) for the rest of the Redskins to overcome, regardless of home field advantage.  But once the Redskins are able to overcome the Seahawks, it's hard not to look at the rest of the playoffs as somewhat anticlimactic.  

The Falcons, Packers, and 49ers do not display the kind of creativity on both sides of the ball that Seattle does.  Atlanta is not particularly far away and the Redskins have been playing better football than the Falcons over the last two months.  The Packers -- whose spread attack would give the Redskins fits -- might not even make it to the NFC Championship game, having to go through San Francisco to get there.

Ultimately, how far the Redskins go depends less on the route they have to take than on the health of Robert Griffin III.  If Griffin makes a huge improvement in mobility and accuracy between last Sunday and this Sunday, the Redskins have the tools and ability to extend this seven game winning streak to an eleven game winning streak.  If Griffin makes no improvement, or suffers a setback, then the Wilson-led Seahawks are probably the NFC team of destiny.  

In either case, Redskins fans won't have to wait long to get their answers.

Images:
September 12, 2012, Robert Griffin III, Getty Images via zimbio.com.
December 16, 2012, Russell Wilson, Getty Images via zimbio.com.
December 30, 2012, Marshawn Lynch, Getty Images via zimbio.com.
December 22, 2012, Robert Griffin III, Getty Images via zimbio.com.

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The NFL announced the 2013 schedule for the NFC East division champion Washington Redskins. The St. Louis Rams are off the schedule because, for the first time in five seasons, neither the Redskins nor the Rams ended the regular season in division fourth place. Thus, they avoid playing fourth-place opponents.

NFC East teams face teams from the AFC West and the NFC North in 2013.

Play dates, and preseason opponents, are yet to be announced. But we show the breakdown of home and away opponents in the table below. Tickets to 2013 Redskins games should be a hot commodity.

•   Gopher morphed to become The Internet.

•   Wikipedia was launched.

•   MySpace fell and Facebook rose.

•   Friends of Tanya Harding kneecapped Nancy Kerrigan.

•   The Western Calendar entered the next Millennium and the Mayan Calendar ended.  

•   After six seasons of trying, Norv Turner coached the Redskins to a division title.

•   Norv Turner is about to be fired from his third NFL head coaching job.

•   The Dallas Cowboys won three Super Bowls, but no playoff games since.

•   The Eagles appeared in a Super Bowl.

•   The Giants won two Super Bowls.

•   The cool kids in 1991 had cell phones the size of a man’s shoe. Now, the cool kids use smart phones to text.

•   Both hot news and misinformation may be found on the Twitterverse.

•   Fantasy football blew up.

•   The dot-com bubble burst.

•   Pluto was demoted to a “dwarf planet.”

•   Queen Elizabeth II celebrated her Diamond Jubilee.

•   They built an Ice Palace for Super Bowl 26 (I refuse to use Roman Numerals) where the wind chill factor was 30-below. The game between the Redskins and Bills was played in the Humphey Metrodome where the indoor temperature was 72°.

•   Robert Griffin III celebrated his second birthday in February 1992. London Fletcher was a teenager in Cleveland.

•   Daniel Snyder learned the fastest path to contention is to get out of the way.

•   The Redskins beat the Cowboys 28-18 to clinch the 2012 NFC East title. 

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It's official. #Redskins are NFC East champions for the first time since 1999. Beat Cowboys, 28-18. Host Seahawks 4:30 on Sunday in 1st rd.

— Post Sports (@PostSports) December 31, 2012

I bet nobody in the NFC East looks past the Redskins anymore. Everyone outside of Washington did that last September when they projected the Eagles or Giants as division champs. Nobody thought, “Hmm, Redskins…division champs....”

I bet nobody laughs at the Redskins quarterback situation anymore. Everybody outside of Washington did that in September 2011 when Mike Shanahan blew smoke about Rex Grossman and John Beck as competitive starters. And to think they suspended Trent Williams for blowing smoke.

I bet nobody thinks of Norv Turner anymore. Turner coached the Redskins to their last NFC East title in 1999. Ironic that he is likely to lose his job in San Diego this week.

I bet Robert Griffin III will not be nominated for Rookie of Week 17. Nope, Alfred Morris (200 yards, 3 TDs) is your Rookie of the Week. Morris holds the franchise rushing record with 1,613 yards. He also had three touchdowns for the evening.

I bet nobody thought DC Jim Haslett would use DeAngelo Hall in man coverage on Dez Bryant most of the evening. The same scheme led to disaster in 2011 Cowboys Game One. Haslett must have a pair of big ones.

I bet nobody thought D.Hall would cover Bryant so well all night long. Lawd knows I didn’t. Nice job, De.

I bet nobody gives Tony Romo any love this offseason. Prepare for a lot of Tony Ohno jokes and homophobic corruptions of his name. Yesterday, I wrote that Romo is a better quarterback than most give him credit to be. Today, we find out if he is a better man. A lot of withering criticism is rolling his way, much of it from Cowboys alumni Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders on the Network. Irvin and Sanders are the best superficial thinkers on sports talk TV.

"Wow, I'd hate to be Tony Romo" - Mark Sanchez

— Evil Mike Tomlin (@EvilMikeTomlin) December 31, 2012

What do you call a year like these Redskins rookies had?A good start!

— Anthony Brown (@SkinsHogHeaven) December 31, 2012

The rookies and new players on this team are beasts, that’s why the Redskins are Beasts of the East. Now, here comes one of the Best of the West, the Seattle Seahawks. The ‘Hawks are a better, healthier team than the Cowboys, but save that for another post. For now, it’s all about Hail to the 2012 Redskins.  

After coming so far, a Redskins loss to the Cowboys Sunday night is inconceivable

Of all the jaw-dropping things we’ve witnessed about the 2012 Washington Redskins, none is so amazing as to see the team fighting for the title Beast of the East.

Hog Heaven projected seven wins for this team, and that forecast was among the most optimistic. Simulations by Football Outsiders and The Prediction Machine had the ‘Skins with fewer than seven wins. CBS Sports' Pete Prisco predicted three wins for the team. He has admitted his error on DC sports talk radio.

Washington’s turnaround was hard to see because it’s led by a bunch of players who were not on the team last year. You know the obvious name, but tip your hat to CB Richard Crawford, the seventh-round Draft pick who is averaging 23 yards per punt return. Alfred Morris can break Clinton Portis’ franchise single season rushing record with another 104 yards. K Kai Forbath and S Jordan Pugh weren’t even on the roster for the Saints game.

LB Rob Jackson seems like a new player, though he is a Vinny Cerrato find from the 2008 Draft. His pick-six of an Andy Dalton pass was our first impression of him. Jackson has three interceptions for the season. His comfort in replacing Brian Orakpo boosted the defense.

Here’s how ESPN described the Redskins’ recent performance.

“The Redskins had a season-high five sacks in Week 16 and over the last six weeks they rank fourth in the NFC with 16.0 sacks. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, Washington’s 14 sacks were tied for last in the conference. The Redskins average a sack every 15.3 dropbacks this season when sending five or more pass-rushers, but that rate drops to one every 27.8 dropbacks when sending standard pressure. Over the past six weeks, though, the Redskins have averaged a sack every 14.1 dropbacks with added pressure and once every 18.7 dropbacks with standard pressure.”

Joe Gibbs tried to renew this team with veterans – "proven talents." So did Mike Shanahan, initially. We all knew that the ‘Skins would get better by getting younger. Did you know Washington would get this much better this fast?

Liar, liar pants on fire.

Three Stats worth watching point to a passing duel, turnovers, and a division title for Washington

QB Passer Rating Differential
Redskins 103.6, Opponents 88.9, Differential +14.7
Cowboys 93.5, Opponents 95.7, Differential -2.2

Don’t count us among Tony Romo-bashers. He is a beast who has been a cut above his Redskins’ counterpart since winning the starter position with Dallas. (This is easy to admit now that RGIII is on the Redskins’ roster.) Much like Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia, Romo is the reason the Cowboys can contest for games. He is not the player holding them back. He’s the one who props them up. Lose Romo and the Cowboys turn to Kyle Orton.

Romo and WR Dez Bryant have been hot commodities lately. Bryant has six TD catches in the last four games.

Romo’s 84.1 QBR when he last faced the Redskins is worst than his season average. Griffin’s 131.8 QBR of  that day is much higher than his season average. Griffin was fueled by emotion for his Texas homecoming. The Cowboys’ defense hadn’t faced him before. Don’t look for a Thanksgiving hangover. The disparity of that day will not hold up.

Miles Austin should play a complete game for the Cowboys. That’s offset by the uncertain health of Cowboys pass rusher DeMarcus Ware. RGIII is the hottest quarterback in the division and that’s a big edge for the Redskins.

Advantage: Washington

Third Down Conversions Allowed
Redskins 43.6%
Cowboys 39.8%

This has been a theme all season. The Redskins have a hard time making stops. Disruption is their strength. Move on to the next section.

Advantage: Cowboys

Turnover Differential
Redskins +14
Cowboys -3

Here’s more proof that a good offense is the best defense. The Redskins have run with a positive turnover differential all year. It has covered up flaws of an injury-plagued defense with a talent-short secondary. For perspective, compare the Redskins to the Chicago Bears.

Defensive Take-Aways
Bears:  23 INTs, 17 Recovered Fumbles, 40 Take-Aways,
Redskins:  18 INTs, 9 Recovered Fumbles, 27 Take-Aways

Chicago’s offense lost the ball 18 times. The tight-handed Redskins lost the ball 13 times. While Washington’s net turnovers look good standing alone, we have a way to go to match the league's best.

Save that discussion for the playoffs. The Redskins play the Cowboys, not the Bears. Tony Romo has been sharp of late, and he enjoys the return of Miles Austin. But the Cowboys’ defense has a mere seven interceptions to show for itself. Winning the turnover battle is as good as a score against Dallas.

Advantage: Washington

The 8-Ball don’t lie, but it can make an honest mistake.

Hog Heaven’s Magic 8-Ball cast doubt on a Washington win last Sunday. It was the first wrong call since we asked the question, "Will the Redskins win." The 8-Ball is 6-1 calling the correct outcome.

You will be glad to know the 8-Ball says “It is certain” that the Redskins will beat the Cowboys.

A special message to DeAngelo Hall

Man, if you get your hands on the ball with an unobstructed path to the goal line, go ahead and score this time. RGIII won’t mind. Really.

HAIL!

Image: Redskins at Cowboys via zimbio.com.

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The NFL missed the Cowboys vs. Redskins rivalry games. It's apparent by the joyous hype we see every day this week on the NFL Network and NFL.com. 

Games were played, of course. Sometimes a team, usually the Redskins, would pull off a stunning upset, but those games lacked the winner-take-all aura of a playoff fight of 'Skins vs. 'Boys of the '70s and '80s.

George Allen milked the rivalry, but the baby was born in the epic feud between team owners George Preston Marshall and Clint Murchison that was Shakespearean in scale. 

I told this story in a three-part series on my old blog, Running Redskins. It's worth a read, so let me link you there.

Part I: It didn't start with George Allen – Redskins owner Marshall did everything in his power to stifle Pete Rozelle's expansion effort in the Deep South. Marshall built an expansive radio network in the South and built his team to appeal to Old Confederate values accepted in that time.

People saw Marshall's refusal to sign black players as unique, but it was no different from Alabama's Bear Bryant or Texas' Darrel Royal, or any ACC school at the time. Murchison did not feel a need to follow that roster-building concept, even for a team based in Dallas. But he could not win the majority vote of owners while Marshall remained recalcitrant on league expansion.

Murchison hijacked the copyright to Washington's fight song, Hail To The Redskins, and extorted Marshall's vote in favor. Rubbing salt in the wound, Cowboys' GM Tex Schramm rustled three-time Redskins Pro Bowl quarterback Eddie LeBaron off the Redskins' roster in the expansion Draft after Marshall failed to add LeBaron to the protected list.

Imagine RGIII in a Cowboys uniform because of a paperwork screw-up. Yeah. It was like that.  

Read It: Redskins & Cowboys: It didn't start with Allen.   

Part II: Aces Wild – I came of age watching the 1960's Redskins. (Don't do the math.) Those teams wore true burgundy wine-colored jerseys. They were terrible. They lost. But they were the most dynamically exciting losers in the history of losers. Why? because Sonny Jurgensen and his band of Merry Receivers, Bobby Mitchell, Charley Taylor and Jerry Smith. 

Aces Wild tells the story of the epic four-game Redskins-Cowboys battle led by Jurgensen and Dandy Don Meredith, the "aces" in this tale, between 1965 and 1967. Those were compelling games, but were no death matches for playoff spots. Yet, Washington's unbroken string of consecutive sellouts was born in that period.

I suspect most Hog Heaven readers, age mid-30s and younger, are only vaguely aware of what Sonny Jurgensen meant to the Redskins. "Sonny Jurgensen" now sounds as ancient as Sammy Baugh does. That's a real shame, if true. Jurgy's abilities were stunning.

Read it: Redskins & Cowboys: Aces Wild. 

Redskins & Cowboys Part III: The Future is now – To Redskins fans younger than 40, "the rivalry" was born with the arrival of George Allen in 1971. Two things were working in Allen's favor.

Pete Rozelle had worked his magic to sign megabucks broadcast rights for NFL games. Redskins-Cowboys was already compelling drama for an electronic media that craved compelling drama. The era saw the buildup of Raiders-Chiefs and Vikings-Packers as TV-fueled rivalries. But, those teams lacked the outsized personalities of George Allen and Tom Landry.

Well, maybe Landry did not have an outsized personality like Allen, but by then Landry was a football icon. Allen continued down the path blazed by Vince Lombardi to restore the Redskins as perennial contenders. The high water mark of this period was the 1972 Conference Championship game. The Redskins brushed aside the Cowboys in route to Super Bowl 7.

We couldn't see it at the time, but the Redskins began a slow ebb after the Super Bowl. They would not win another division title until a decade later. The Over the Hill Gang got older. Allen, for some mystifying reason, never trusted Jurgensen as quarterback. The St. Louis Cardinals, got better under head coach Don Coryell and OC Joe Gibbs, the Cowboys kept improving.

The Redskins were always in the thick of the playoff race. When Allen left Washington to return to the Los Angeles Rams, disciples Jack Pardee and Richie Pettibon ran the team. 

Read it: Redskins & Cowboys Part III: The Future is Now.

Image: September 1993 GameDay Magazine cover from author's personal collection.
George Allen image found on profootballhof.com via Google here.

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