Micheal Lombardi wrote an eye-catching piece on NFL.com today titled Why Redskins, Titans will win divisions.... I appreciate the Lombardi love as relief from the drumbeat of pundits who say the Washington Redskins will, um, stink this year. I'll take support from anyone, including Lombardi who's shown little support for the Redskins in the past. Lombardi once said that Clinton Portis was not a premier backfield pass blocker.

Just for fun, I sent a link to Andrew Strickert, a colleague from the old MVN days who covers the Tennessee Titans on the Bloguin Network.

"Yo, Andrew, Are you reading this? http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d82213ff1/article/why-redskins-titans-will-win-divisions-15-thoughts-on-week-1 Redskins and Titans Super bowl, baby! "

As usual, Andrew's succinct response was worth a blog post.

"Wow, LMAO at Lombardi, he obviously hasn't seen much of the Titans. I hope for your sake Lombardi is more knowledgeable about the Redskins than he is the Titans. He's completely wrong about several things he wrote about the Titans. Did you notice that one of the reasons he's picking the Redskins is because they play the entire NFC West? I don't see how that helps them win the division, since the Jints, Iggles and Cowgirls all play the NFC West too. Bodog has the over/under for the Redskins at 6½ wins this year, lowest in the division.  The Titans were also at 6½ the other day, also lowest in the division, but I now see Bodog has taken the entire AFC South off the board.  

"Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 predicted 5.0 wins for the Titans, tied with Oakland for fewest wins in the league. BTW, the Tony Brown who used to play for the Titans was released this summer. Bad knees. Too bad, because he was one of the Titans' best players for a couple of years, their best defensive player in 2009. Hope you are doing well. Good luck to the Redskins this year."

Thoughtful analysis.... 

Point after: I have no relationship with former Titans player Tony Brown, who helped make Albert Haynesworth a star with the Titans. Before Google, I had no idea how many Anthony/Tony Browns there are. I should friend them all on FB.

The backstory on Tony Brown from Andrew: "Former Titans DT Tony Brown's given name is Tony Anthony Brown.  He was a street free agent, who had previously been cut by the 49ers and Panthers, when his phone rang one day.  Albert Haynesworth had just stomped on Andre Gurode's face and was about to be suspended for five games, and the Titans needed someone to fill out the depth in the DT rotation.  Brown stuck with the team after Albert's return, worked his way into the starting lineup and stayed with the Titans for five years.  He made some good money and will be eligible for an NFL pension, so other than having bad knees, he did all right for himself."
 

UPDATE: Sep 10, 2011, 8:27 PM, CSNWashington reports that Snyder drops City Paper suit. Good. Now Snyder can be spared further embarrassment. The article contains  a statement by Tony Wyllie, Redskins p.r. executive essentially declaring victory and going home. Now we can get on to football. I encourage Messrs. Snyder and Wyllie to read the tips at the end of this story for the 21st-Century way to influence the public and control your image.

The sharp-eyed folks at DC Pro Sports Report came across a New York Times Magazine interview of Washington Redskins owner Daniel Snyder. PennSkinFan wrote it up in a post he titled Dan Snyder 'possibly' made mistake suing Washington City Paper. Possibly? Definitely according to every Redskins blogger in town.

But, I digress.

Snyder admits in the interview that he did not read the offending City Paper article The Cranky Redskins Fan's Guide to Dan Snyder.

Umm?

That alone is destined to be item No. 62 in The Cranky Fan's Guide of The Danny's miscues. The DCPSR story alludes to Snyder coming close to admitting that he perhaps might possibly could have been maybe mistaken to sue the City Paper, but did not cite the actual reference. They couldn't get past the part where Snyder admits he did not read The Cranky Guide, I guess. Here is the relevant passage:

"Had you not sued, I [the NYT interviewer] probably wouldn’t have come across the piece. Do you think it was a tactical error to sue them?
"Possibly. But at the end of the day, you can’t call someone a criminal when they’re absolutely not. What’s right is right, and what’s wrong is wrong. And I think they were just wrong. I mean, all we asked for, and continue to, is a simple apology, a simple correction."

Hmm.

I don't see an acknowledgement of possible error when I read Snyder's full response. Don't look for the lawsuit to quietly go away. (Surprise to me. It did go away.)

One never knows how a judge will rule in these things. I believe that Snyder must show how he has lost business because of the article in order to collect damages. Snyder's vaunted legal machine successfully defended the use of the team name against a series of lawsuits filed by Suzan Harjo and a small group of Native Americans. From a public relations standpoint, however, the City Paper suit is a disaster. The more that comes out about it, the more foolish it seems...and the more Web traffic flows to The City Paper.

Here's a tip for Snyder and for Tony Wyllie, his p.r. executive. Don't fight the social media wave. Own it.

Open a Real Daniel Snyder account on Twitter and build a following. You own the Washington Redskins. You will get a following. You might get flamed after every loss. So what? We're losing. Engage your following anyway than they will love you for it. Best practice: Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay, @JimIrsay. Football, guitar, life and more.

Open your own Facebook page and share something about yourself. Best practice: Former-Redskin Phillip Daniels, thatboyphil. Do ya know that son, DeVaris, plays for Notre Dame and that Phil started a fantasy league? I know because he's my friend. (You scouting DeVaris, by the way?)   

Start your "From The Desk Of Dan Snyder" blog on Redskins.com. And no fluff piece on Redskins Charities. Share what you think about life and fans and, yes, even football. Best practice: Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, http://blogmaverick.com/. Always an interesting read. If you don't know what to say, Matt Terl can help you. Oh, wait....

Ted Leonsis does this with great p.r. success without suing newspapers, or grandmas. Better yet, His public persona is independent of his teams' performance.

C'mon. Be Dan the Man instead of.... Well, you get the idea.     

Redskins Hog Heaven writers Anthony Brown and Greg Trippiedi  preview the Washington Redskins season in three parts. Today, we cover the defense. In Part 2 tomorrow, we tell what to expect from the offense. In Part 2, you get our season prediction.

Anthony Brown: Front office gets it right

The high impact change on the Washington Redskins was in the heads of Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen...and perhaps Daniel Snyder. Before we discuss the 2011 roster and its prospects, we must acknowledge the superior approach the front office is taking to rebuild the team. Our projections for this year would have been much more positive if the franchise leaders made these choices last year.

I like that they acquired more draft picks and used them to upgrade the defensive and offensive fronts. I like that there is some semblance of contract value to player value. Players who over-achieve may not like their contract, but it is the general manager's job to have the performance to value ratio break the team's way. I like it that "proven talents" Randy Moss and Tiki Barber are not on the roster. Randy may not have come for any amount of money. Tiki would have come for a bag of donuts and would still have been overpaid.

I like it that the Redskins are tens of millions under the salary cap for a change instead of tens of millions of dead cap money. It's football. Injuries happen. Astute teams keep cap room for the flexibility to add players without unnatural acts to existing players' contracts that remain years after said player departs.

We do not know whether this front office is any better at picking talent than their predecessors. That's what this season is all about, really. But for the first time in the Snyder era, I feel optimistic about the Redskins over the five-year strategic horizon, provided they stick to this approach. Hat tip to Redskins Park. Now for 2011....

Does defense win championships?

Is run the ball--stop the run still the path to glory? Um, probably not. But that's what the 2011 Redskins are built to do.

Haslett v2.0 paid the transition cost of converting to the 3-4 defensive alignment last year. Now, the carry-over players can react to assignments more than think about them. That advantage cannot be quantified, but I say the defense will move up ten places in NFL rankings for that reason alone.

What gets me amped up is that this front seven is a pass pressure unit, thanks to the rebuilt defensive line. Haslett wants the D-line to penetrate. That is a different approach than with Gregg Williams and Greg Blache who used defensive linemen to tie up blockers. Albert Haynesworth might have been a force with Haslett's concepts, if he gave it a chance. Barry Cofield has less talent, but more desire to play in this system. The net effect is a plus over Big Al at nose tackle.

DT Stephen Bowen is the litmus test for the scouting department. Everyone saw the Redskins going for free agent Cullen Jenkins. Snyderrato would have gone for "proven talent" Jenkins instead of sleeper Bowen. The team committed themselves to a five-year, $27.5 million deal with Bowen. They are true believers. Picking Bowen over Jenkins is the free agent version of drafting Jarvis Jenkins over his high profile teammate Da'Quan Bowers. I hope that means the front office is reading scouting reports to build the roster rather than news clippings.

Jenkins' preseason performance reminded everyone of Brian Orakpo in his rookie year. His healthy return in 2012 is something to look forward to.

Opposing teams are going to target linebackers Rocky McIntosh and 2011 first-round Draft pick Ryan Kerrigan. Rocky is too tempting a target. Ryan is a rookie on a learning curve. The rookie is a fast learner, they say, who has pass rush skills to offset his inexperience. I see Kerrigan as a young (Houston ILB) Brian Cushing and hope he can mimic Cushing's rookie season.

McIntosh is a tackling machine on a mission. Haslett moves him to inside linebacker, a change that might mitigate Rocky's liability in coverage. The Redskins gave him a one-year contract. That is one more year to prove to Washington, or anyone, that he deserves the multi-year, multi-million deal he really wants.

LaRon Landry's absence from the secondary...I think it will be a long one...will stress the secondary and linebacker coverage. I am curious to see if the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys test them with four wide and two wide-two tight end offensive formations.

Greg Trippiedi: Defense could be tough against the run

I think the best way to sum up the 2011 Redskins offseason with regards to defense is "better late than never."  This is a better unit than last year, particularly in the front seven where Andre Carter/Lorenzo Alexander have been upgraded into Kerrigan, and Cofield and Bowen have been brought in to make the defensive line something of a strength.  It's hard to understate the unfortunate nature of the Jarvis Jenkins injury because it really tests the Redskins depth (primary backups: Kedric Golston, Chris Neild, Darrion Scott), and does so at the expense of a promising rookie season.  But the news that Jenkins should be back next year with no complications makes it easier to swallow.  It could be worse: we could all be Giants fans. But the improvements are just too late to be that worthwhile.

The Redskins look like they could be one of the toughest defenses in football against the run this year.  It looks like they will not need to bring a safety into the box to stop the run.  And it sure looked like in the preseason that Jim Haslett was playing significantly less cover three in the secondary because he didn't feel the need to have a safety in the box to help a leaky line.  Pending some positive development at the ILB level: we didn't see much of 36 year old London  Fletcher in the preseason, and we saw plenty of poor play from Rocky McIntosh, this could be one of the better front sevens in football. From the OLB level straight through the DEs and Cofield, the Redskins have the right guys.

I need to point out that one of the takeaways of the preseason is just how much more dominant Brian Orakpo looked to be compared to last year.  Orakpo has been to pro bowls in both of his seasons in the pros, but has been there mostly for his sack production, not his complete game.  If the preseason is any indication, Orakpo is the complete player the Redskins thought they had when they drafted him. He could have a monster defensive year for a team that absolutely needs it.

It's the secondary that looked lost out there in the preseason, and given its performance over the last two seasons, I think we all have tempered expectations for this group.  Simple improvement over last year's debacle would be nice, though it's hard to see where the improvement will come from.  From 2004-2007, the Redskins spent three first round picks in the defensive secondary.  For the first time

since 2004, not one of those picks will take the field on Opening Day for the Redskins.  Keep this in mind: for most teams, 2004-2007 draft picks make up the very core of their teams.  The Redskins will only take Rocky McIntosh and Chris Cooley onto the field with them from any of those years.  The secondary hasn't struggled for lack of investment, but for lack of development.

The Washington Redskins face an old nemesis and its oldest rival this Sunday when the New York Giants visit FedEx Field. To get a handle on the G'ints, Hog Heaven turns to an old friend, Dan Benton, founder of the Giants 101 blog and a colleague from the old Most Valuable Network. Dan answered a few of my questions about his team and Sunday's game. Read the whole post for Dan's surprise ending.

1. Two words: Barry Cofield. Your thoughts?

Cofield is an extremely talented player who got away due to cap issue. The Redskins are lucky to have him and will be happy with him moving forward. He's solid against the run and surprisingly quick for a man of his size. He's a great addition and adds a unique element to Washington's D. You'll also love his sack dances (don't taze me, bro!).

His recent criticisms of the Giants' front office aside, he was a fan favorite, a good locker-room guy and a force on the field. I hate acknowledging that the Redskins stole such a talent away, but he'll be everything Cornelius Griffin was supposed to be and much more.

2. The Giants have six players on the Injured Reserve or the PUP list. Osi Umenyiora and Prince Amakamura will miss the opening game against Washington. How do the Giants adjust with that many front-line injuries? Name two players unfamiliar to Redskins fans who will stand out in their absence.

In all, there are now 15 players (not all of whom were locks to make the team) who are out for the season, on Injured Reserve or were waived/injured. It's been a nightmarish offseason in that aspect, and adjusting with so much loss would be difficult for the deepest of teams. They're going to end up using Antrel Rolle as a nickel corner, they'll go back to three-safety sets with Deon Grant and will continue to blitz as frequently they have in recent years. All in all, not much is going to change. The Giants have faith in some of their youngsters, and rightfully so, and will stay the course in terms of their defensive scheme. Whether or not that turns out to be the correct decision remains to be seen.

3. When looking at Eli Manning's 2010 performance, the Redskins fan in me says "I knew it." The football analyst in me says it is an aberration. Which is it and why?

That Eli-haters would love to say "I know it," but if you actually go back and watch the tape thoroughly, the problem is less Eli than it is young wide receivers and an extremely complex offense. Breaking down the interceptions one by one shows that seven of them were off of catchable passes and an eighth (against Green Bay) was actually caught out of bounds, but the Giants were out of challenges. Another two or three were a direct result of receivers running the incorrect route or cutting their route short.

The Giants passing attack is entirely too complex, and it's become troublesome for many of the receivers. It's based largely on timing and breaks made by receivers. Eli will throw to a spot, and if the receiver isn't where he's supposed to be, it spells disaster each time. Unfortunately, the receivers are given many route options that they can choose to at the point of a break, and as we've seen in the preseason, indecisiveness can also cause major problems for Manning & Co.

3a. Rank the top three quarterback of the division. I know your opinion of the Redskins, so don't bother.

Michael Vick is easily the most talented athlete of any of the quarterbacks in the NFC East, but that doesn't necessarily make him a good pure quarterback. Although he's probably the most valuable player on his respective team, he's not in the same league with Eli Manning and Tony Romo as a pure quarterback. So I would go Eli Manning at 1a, Tony Romo at 1b, then Michael Vick and whoever the Redskins decide to throw out after that. Manning, for me, gets the nod over Romo because he's actually won and stays healthy. I know people and even some analysts like to throw that reality out the window, but this is a league that focuses solely on one thing: winning. Manning has done that, Romo has not.

4. The Giants have the reputation of not losing players they really want to keep. What do you make of Steve Smith, Kevin Boss and Cofield signing with other teams? Can they win the division by standing pat?

Giants had major cap issues going into the post-NFL Lockout offseason (in some aspects, they still do), so they had to face an unfortunate reality: losing some of their UFA's. When it came to Cofield, as talented as he is, there was just no way they were capable of matching the Redskins' offer. I want to say Daniel Snyder once again overpaid, but Cofield is a proven talent and I was always a big fan of him, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Still, it was more than the Giants could pony up...so he walked.

When it came down to Boss and Smith, it was a different story. First and foremost, the Giants made Smith an offer last season pre-injury (regardless of what his camp says) that would have made him one of the top paid wide receivers in the league. He and his agent balked at it, suffered a serious injury and it was withdrawn. Immediately following the NFL Lockout, Jerry Reese made both parties an offer without meeting either face-to-face. Smith and his agent never got back to the Giants (re: offer) and despite coming to New Jersey to visit team doctors, he went off to Philadelphia the following day and signed a deal without giving the Giants a chance to match. Boss, on the other hand, had verbally agreed to a deal with Big Blue and was on the plane back from Oakland to sign said deal when Al Davis got a hold of him and offered him far, far more money than he was worth. Boss is an average all-around tight end who got above-average money with the Raiders.

5. I guess I have to ask. What's your prediction for the Giants-Redskins game and your prediction for the Giants' final record?

The Giants are ravaged with injury and have a lot of turnover. Giants fans aren't going to like to hear this, but I see a 7-9 or 8-8 season ahead and that includes a 24-17 week 1 loss to the Washington Redskins.

BONUS QUESTION: The Redskins front office did not sign Tiki Barber to a contract. Are you as impressed as I am?

Tiki is done. I don't care how good his work ethic is and what kind of shape he was in. I am more surprised he thought someone would actually sign him prior to week one. Someone may eventually give him a chance when running backs begin to drop, but until then, he's remaining unemployed.

Thanks for the insight, Dan, and Happy 7th Anniversary on Giants 101. 

To celebrate the kickoff of the 2011 NFL season, fans will be offered free previews of NFL RedZone channel, SiriusXM NFL Radio and NFL Sunday Ticket, as well as free shipping for all orders on NFLShop.com, on Kickoff Sunday (September 11), it was announced today.

All fans whose television providers carry the widely acclaimed NFL RedZone channel -- which whips around every NFL game on Sunday afternoons, delivering the touchdowns and most exciting moments as they happen – will receive the channel free on Kickoff Sunday. Comcast, Dish Network, Cox, Charter, Verizon FiOS, and AT&T U-Verse are among the operators offering the NFL Network-produced NFL RedZone channel.

SiriusXM NFL Radio will offer XM Select Package subscribers the chance to listen to every home and away radio broadcast of each game on Kickoff Sunday (viawww.siriusxm.com/max1 or by calling 888/749-2689). The only place on radio for NFL news and analysis 24 hours a day, seven days a week, SiriusXM NFL Radio offers the home and visiting team radio broadcasts and national Westwood One radiocasts for all 256 NFL regular season games and the playoffs, including Super Bowl XLVI.

All DirecTV homes which don’t already have subscriptions to NFL Sunday Ticket and the RedZone Channel will on Kickoff Sunday receive at no charge the subscription package which includes all AFC and NFC regional network telecasts of Sunday afternoon games (subject to blackout restrictions).

In addition, fans will receive free shipping on all orders placed at NFLShop.com Thursday, September 8 through Monday, September 12.

The word "lockout" appears nowhere in the NFL's press release. This one-time freebie appears to be an effort to make good to fans the stress caused by the this summer's labor strife. Enjoy it while you can. 

When the Redskins put out their 53 man roster on Saturday, the list of cuts contained hardly any shocking names.  The biggest name release was RB Keiland Williams, who I believe the Shanahan's felt could pass through waivers (Detroit picked him up), thinking he would be there in week three or four when they were ready for him.  Losing Williams hurts the Redskins, but not to a level they were unprepared to deal with with they took his playbook and released him.

It also wasn't surprising that longtime Skins like Horatio Blades and Chris Horton got the axe.  Neither played very well in the preseason.  I think Blades has a legitimate beef: the team kept Rocky McIntosh over him, which may have been undeserved, but Horton on the other hand looked as lost in coverage as he has ever since he first won the job in 2008.  The fact that the Redskins had listed him as their first backup to FS O.J. Atogwe was more or less the death knel of Horton's tenure, and explains why he looked so lost in the preseason.

None of these cuts were surprises.  The reason that we're without a surprise departure to begin the season is totally by design: at the positions where the rebuilding Redskins were overloaded with talent (wide receiver, running back, outside linebacker), the Redskins kept everybody.  They did not cut a player who was not in their long term plans for a guy who was.  They kept Donte Stallworth and they kept Niles Paul and they kept Markus White and Rob Jackson and they kept Ryan Torain without losing Evan Royers (waived; practice squad).

It's a rare sign of a word I've been incredibly hesitant to use with this organization: rebuilding.  There's no doubt that Keiland Williams had more value to this team than Donte Stallworth does due to his versatility and the fact that Stallworth is third on the depth chart simply amongst veterans on a team with lots of young receiving talent.  There was no real spot on this roster for two rookies in Leonard Hankerson and Niles Paul, and the Redskins were able to avoid the pressure to decide between which one of these two players was more useful to them now by keeping both.  To this, I tip my cap for the Shanahans for taking a bad situation and making the right, if unorthodox decision.  Too often, Zorn/Cerrato or even Gibbs/Williams stripped useful future talent off the roster because they couldn't figure out a way to make the player fit in the plans for that year.

Having 8 receivers on the roster brings up an entirely different problem.  Where are Leonard Hankerson, Terrence Austin, Niles Paul, or Donte Stallworth actually going to get any reps on offense?  We know the Redskins are a 2 WR base offense that just doesn't use very much formation diversity, usually only going 3 WRs in third downs or in long yardage.  The Redskins rarely go with 4 WR sets.  Even if we up the frequency of those formations in 2010, we know the receivers who will be playing include and is limited to Jabar Gaffney, Santana Moss, and Anthony Armstrong.  Between those three, two of those guys are already at their athletic peaks (Armstrong, Gaffney), and Moss is on some sort of decline into the realm of possession receiver.  Armstrong can still get vertical on most defenses, but Gaffney was stretched in this role even in his prime, and the days were Moss streaks down the sideline behind the safeties was last seen roughly four years ago.

This is specifically a problem for Hankerson and Austin who need reps to develop as our starters of the future.  Hankerson may not get on the field much all season, and though Austin could find himself in the receiver rotation getting 10+ snaps a game, plenty of those plays will be runs.  I thought Keenan McCardell did a really good job coaching this group in his first year as a position coach in the NFL, but its one thing to find talent deep on your roster, it's another thing entirely to develop that talent without game or practice reps for those guys.  Our coaches are sure to learn a lot about the character and mental makeup of the players deep on our roster at those skill positions, but not much about their on-field abilities.  Now, lets pause for a second and think back to the part where the Redskins couldn't find a role for both Chris Cooley and Fred Davis on the same field, even though the Redskins lacked talent on the outside the last couple of years.  It's mind-boggling to figure that now, with all these receivers that need to get on the field, that situation is going to rectify itself.

So it's not that my beef with the Redskins on the day they re-signed Santana Moss, and acquired Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth all on the same day is a thing of the past.  If anything, the problem with those signings should be more self-evident now that they've kept 8 players at the receiver position on the roster.  There are a number of redundancies out there.  Having Gaffney and Moss is redundant.  Having Moss and Austin is redundant.  Having Stallworth and Armstrong is redundant.  8 receivers does not suggest great effiency of the 53 man roster; quite the opposite, actually.  It suggests internal conflicts between relying on veterans and wanting to develop players for the future.

And really, that's the theme of this roster as we head into the 2011 season: internal conflict.  It's not really clear what the Redskins are or intend to be.  It's quite clear from the preseason that if the Redskins want to run the football and stop the run, they have the horses on each side of the ball to do just that.  But then the fact that the Redskins are rostering 12 TEs and WRs would seem out of place, and the Keiland Williams cut looks even more curious should this be a run/defense/special teams oriented team.  I think the Redskins themselves believe that better times are in the near term future.  And that very easily could be the case.  But for a team that most of us were pegging for 4-6 wins during the lockout (those were full-season totals), then went on a tear during the preseason, the conflict of the roster suggests that the team isn't going to get caught up in what was working so well for the preaseason.  The understanding is that this roster is a work in progress, and so the fact that it looks like a roster that is going to look very different five weeks from now is simply reflective of the reality of the situation.  The Redskins team that takes on the Giants in September will not be the same team that takes on the Eagles in October.

What this roster needs to be able to do is keep the team in the game, in line to get a big W early on against a division rival.  The team isn't going to go through the year with 8 WRs and just 2 Guards.  That's just how they will start.

There are many voices inside Redskins Park pulling the roster in many different ways, but as long as everyone rows in the same direction this season, the makeup a transisitional roster will not keep the Redskins from accomplishing their goals early in this season. 

Not very promising if you go by sportsbook Bodog.com. Bodog adjusted its betting odds on Rex Grossman's performance after Washington Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan named him starting quarterback--for now. First, here are the odds on Sexy Rexy's performance. Then we take a look ar what it all means.
 

Rex Grossman - Completion % in the 2011 Regular Season

Over/Under                     53.5%

Rex Grossman - Total games started in the 2011 Regular Season

Over/Under                    11½

Rex Grossman – Average Passing Yards per game in the 2011 Regular Season

Over/Under                    210

Rex Grossman – Average Touchdowns per game in the 2011 Regular Season

Over/Under                    1.2

Bodog set the over/under betting line that Grossman will rank somewhere between the 24th through 30th best NFL quarterback. Looking at 2010 statistics, Matt Cassel ranked 24th with 207.7 yards per game. Jimmy Classen ranked 30th in pass completions with 52.5 percent.

Before drowning ourselves in our favorite adult beverage, lets review what this is. The over/under is the stat line that sportsbooks set to attact an even number of wagers on both sides of the line. Thus, Bodog's over/under for Grossman's completion percent accounts for the number of potential bettors who lack faith in Grossman. Bodog would not attract equal bets if they set the over/under at 60 percent completions for Grossman.

Grossman completed 54.2 percent of his passes dating to his Chicago Bears days. He averaged a shade under 173 yards per game and .97 touchdowns per game. That goes a long way to explain why he morphed from Sexy Rexy when he joined the Bears to Wrecks Grossman by the time he left. Crossman's career averages are where the sportsbook stat line comes from.

But Grossman asserts that he is made for Mike Shanahan's offense. In his four game apppearances last year, Grossman completed 55.6 percent of his passes, averaged 221 passing yards and scored 1.75 TD passes per game. He also made two turnovers per game (4 INTs and 4 fumbles, including this one.) Grossman finished that run with a quarterback passer rating of 81.2, the best of his career.

Three games and two minutes is a small sample to project a season. So lets look at Donovan McNabb's stats and project something similar for Grossman. McNabb completed 58 percent of his passes in the Shanahan offense. He averaged just under 260 yards per pass and one touchdown and one INT per game. It is no big step for Grossman to match McNabb's performance. That is something the football pundits and betting public don't seem to grasp.

If I were a betting man (I am not), the over on Grossman would look very tempting. Hog Heaven is neutral on gambling. My lawyer wants me to tell you to rely on your own judgement and sources for wagers because I don't have the money to make up your gambling losses.

Bodog set the Redskins at 18/1 odds to win the NFC Beast and 50/1 odds to take the conference. The over/under on Redskins season wins is 6.5 games. The New York Giants are three-point favorites when they visit Grossman and the Redskins at Fed Ex Field this Sunday.

Point after: A pro quarterback in the upper-third of rankings should complete 60 percent or better of his pass attempts, average seven yards or better per pass attempt, score two touchdowns or better and fewer than one interception per game. Grossman might achieve that performance level (A boy can dream, can't he?), but neither he nor John Beck have any history to suggest it. That made the entire preseason Beck or Grossman question rather pointless.

As my friend Daman Runyon (Never met him, only heard of him) wrote, "The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. But, that's the way to bet.)