Thanksgiving dinner included turkey with stuffing, ham, mashed potatoes & gravy, green beans, wine, pies and a Redskins can of whupass on the Dallas Cowboys. Heavenly.

Here are 10 Redskins Hog Heaven observations about the team on the day after dinner.  

1. The Redskins confirmed their identity as a big play, turnover team. They are a strong rushing team, but running is not the formula for success in the modern NFL. The 'Skins survive on Griffin-fueled big plays and defensive scores off turnovers.

We are holding our view that Washington is a .500 club. The difference between games before the bye and the two games after is that they've made the most of their opportunities off big plays and turnovers. No titles predicted here, but scoring is fun to watch.

2. Are you prepared for next week's Rookie of the Week vote?

So, Robert Griffin III, this week's Rookie of the Week, is the leading candidate for next week's Rookie of the Week. #Redskins

— Anthony Brown (@SkinsHogHeaven) November 23, 2012

3. It's not all about RGIII. It just seems that way. Of course, when the opposing secondary leaves our receivers spectacularly open as the Eagles and Cowboys have, RGIII looks good just by finding the open man.  The rest of the team feeds off him. In the back of the minds of the secondary, is the thought that a turnover means putting the ball back in Griffin's hands.

Proudly driving my RG32DC plates through Charleston this morning. A new dawn as RG3 blew up the Death Star! #HTTR

— Burgess N Goldman (@burgngoldman) November 23, 2012

That said, lets tip the hat to RB Alfred Morris for his one TD, 113 yard day. What a horse. RGIII isn't the only reason why Washington has a bright future.

4. D.Hall, D.Hall. Just when you hate DeAngelo Hall, the man lives up to his role as designated interceptor. He snagged one yesterday, his fourth of the season. Unlike 2010, when he scored four INTs on one game against Chicago, his performance is spread across multiple games. That means more opportunities to beat more opponents.

Vinny Cerrato overreacted to Hall's performance against the Bears and signed him to an incredibly stupid contract that had to be undone by Bruce Allen. I do not blame Hall for the deal. Sometimes your boss just pays you stupid money. Nobody says "no" to that. But, Cerrato and DC Greg Blache disregarded the leadership intangibles that Hall lacks in their effort to build a defense around him. They undervalued Carlos Rogers' superior (to Hall's) coverage skills and overvalued what Albert Haynesworth would bring to the pass rush to force more turnovers. The Redskins incurred the wrath of the NFL Management Council to fix the Hall and Haynesworth contracts. That will always taint D.Hall's reputation around here.

As we said, the deal was not his fault.

5. D.Hall, Part II, The Goal line Slide. Hog Heaven has never seen an onside kick recovered so cleanly and with an express lane to a touchdown as Hall had  last night. Hall's slide at the two-yard line triggered quite the discussion at Thanksgiving dinner where Redskins partisans believe one never passes a chance to score on the Cowboys.

Hog Heaven found himself the voice of reason explaining the logic of the move. Defending a controversial move by Hall was an odd sensation. I hope never to repeat it. In narrow situations, it would have been a brilliant move.  It was unnecessary, however. Hall's touchdown would have padded the Redskins' lead by two scores.

But, Hall said he was thinking of the team when he slid. "I was always told that the offense closes the game." He wanted the offense to take the victory formation when the Cowboys could do nothing to stop the clock. (See Point No. 2 above) Hall didn't think logically. For once, he reverted to coaching. I'm not going to criticize Hall for listening to coaching.

6. Playoffs? Playoffs? Nothing ignites the playoff what-if game like two-straight wins over division rivals. Every fan of every team plays that game. It's the joy of sports. Here's a quote from an Eagles writer for the Philadelphia Examiner written before the Redskins-Cowboys game.

"On the other hand, if the Redskins pull the upset, the Eagles will maintain sole possession of last place for one more week. Washington would then be 5-6 and move into second place over Dallas via another tiebreaker. In addition, if the 6-4 New York Giants lose to the Green Bay Packers on Nov. 25, then New York, Washington and Dallas would be in a legitimate three-team hunt for the NFC East title – with Philadelphia the only team left out of it."

Pro players, the smart ones anyway, don't give in to that thinking. They don't want to win every game. They want to win the next game.  The next game is at home against division rival New York. Win that game, and then go win the next one.

If (hey, I can't resist either.) Washington takes two of its remaining three division games, they can be favored to win the division...provided they do not allow the Giants to sweep them.

This would be possible because the Beast isn't very good this year. 8-8 might take the division. It's as if the Earth reversed rotation so that the sun is rising on the NFC West and setting on the NFC East.

7. The Cleveland Browns are on the schedule. Until the Redskins prove they can beat downtrodden teams like the Browns, Panthers and Rams, lets not size them up for a deep playoff run. Strong teams might beat another strong team, but they always beat the beatable teams.

Don't be fooled by Cleveland's record. The Browns have a rugged defense, on par with the AFC North. The Redskins play the Browns in Cleveland on a cold December Sunday by the lake. RGIII has never felt the cold he is going to feel that day.

Washington should win that game. When did that mean anything? Cleveland is the most dangerous team on the schedule.

8. Kai Forbath made another field goal. He's 10 for 10 on career field goals. If the front office was so smart, why wasn't Forbath in training camp in August?

The Redskins kicked Graham Gano to the curb to for Billy Cundiff's supposed ability to kick touchbacks. That's something for Forbath to work on. He kicked two against Dallas, one helped by a Cowboys penalty that allowed a kick-off from the 50-yard line.

Danny Smith & company made a huge issue of kicking touchbacks while assuming Cundiff's field goal reliability. Forbath's shortcoming on touchbacks beats the alternative. Hog Heaven can live with that.

9. The Redskins did well on the three stats worth watching.

·         Quarterback Rating Differential : Griffin's QBR 132.6, Romo's QBR 84.1. Differential +48.5

·         Forced Turnovers: Redskins 3, Cowboys 1

·         Third Downs Allowed: Redskins 47%, Cowboys 50%

10. Redskins mini-Bye. The coaching staff made the most of the Bye week taking the extra time to game plan the Cowboys as well as the Eagles. It balanced the short week before playing on Thanksgiving Day. Now they get 11 days to heal up and get ready for the Monday Night contest against the Super Bowl Giants. Demand for Redskins tickets will get a bump.

The Giants are the first team to get a second look at the Griffin-fueled offense, and they have both the coaching and the defense to cope with it better than they did in game one. The Redskins blew the lead in that one.

The whole league will watch to see what New York does. The Ravens will copy it if it works. The Ravens defense can do anything the Giants can do. Not every team can.

Associated Press: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins hold off Dallas Cowboys rally.

Images:
Redskins vs. Cowboys – November 21, 2012 - Source: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America via zimbio.com.
DeAngelo Hall bitch slaps Dez Bryant, borrowed from SB Nation.

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When I gave up my Redskins season tickets, I transferred some of those dollars on Navy games in nearby Annapolis. I must say, the Midshipmen do it up right.

The Navy ticket office send me these appeals to send a Midshipman or enlisted person to a Bowl game. I usually help a little, this time by sharing the graphic with the details along with a little change I will send.

It's not what's on the table that makes Thanksgiving great. It's who's sitting there.

Whatever you do, where ever you go, whom ever you are with, may you have a Happy and Safe Thanksgiving.

HTTR

Hog Heaven thinks there are three stats to worth watching in pro football. They are:

1.       QB Passer Rating Differential

2.       Turnover Differential

3.       Defensive Third Down Conversions Allowed

Those stats led us to project a narrow win over the Eagles last Sunday. Boy, were we wrong, in a good way.

The Passer Rating between Robert Griffin III and Nick Foles was laughably different (158.3 vs. 40.4). The Redskins forced three turnovers, the Eagles none. For once, Washington did a better job on third down stops (36% allowed) than the opponent (45% allowed).

Philadelphia is unraveling before our eyes. It's hard to watch a proud franchise go through that. Most Hog Heaven readers do not share the sympathy. The Dallas Cowboys are not unraveling. They are a more severe test for the Washington RGIIIs, for what would the 'Skins be without RGIII.

What do the three stats worth watching signal for Redskins at Cowboys tomorrow afternoon?

QB Passer Rating Differential

Redskins QBR 98.8, Opponents QBR 89.1; Differential +9.7
 Cowboys QBR 87.7, Opponents QBR 90.7; Differential -3.0

When was the last time we saw the Redskins passing game out-performing the Cowboys' game? The Redskins show up well because Griffin III throws few inceptions. The Cowboys struggle on offense, I don't put all that on Tony Romo, the quarterback everyone including Cowboys fans love to hate. Cowboys receivers are much better than Redskins receivers are, but they tune out at critical times. Dallas running game isn't balancing the offense. Thus, Romo has as many picks (13) as TD passes.

The Redskins went into the Eagles game allowing opposing quarterbacks a passer rating of 95.4. The Eagles secondary was as bad as the Redskins were good. Romo is no Nick Foles. The Redskins are without Brandon Meriweather. I never thought I'd write that and mean it as a significant loss of talent. Meriweather, like the rest of Mike Shanahan's 2012 free agent class, just seems snake bit.

Cold Hard Football Facts calls the QBR Differential a meaningful stat with a reliability factor of 65 percent. CHFF means that to apply over the course of a game, but the pregame total hints at what to expect.

In spite of the Eagles-fueled differential, I'm calling it a push between Romo and Robert Griffin III.

Turnover Differential

Redskins +8
Cowboys -14

You'd think Tony Romo's interceptions are the problem, but not so. The Cowboys forced six turnovers in 10 games, while committing 20 of its own. The Redskins forced 16 turnovers. Lets stop calling the Redskins defense "bad" and start to call them "disruptive." Both of the teams in last season's Super Bowl had bad defenses. Both were disruptive.

See? Jim Haslett gets it. Why can't the rest of us?

Advantage: Redskins

Defensive third Downs Allowed

Redskins 43%
Cowboys 35%

The Redskins showed well in this category against Philly, but the Eagles couldn't get out of its own way on offense. We can't say the 'Skins "improved," not when the Eagles held the ball for 19:11 of the first half.

That's a problem. Dallas isn't running well, but may not need to in order to keep RGIII and Washington's offense on the sideline. The Cowboys are going to possess the ball for longer than the Redskins will. For Washington to have a shot – and they do have a shot – they have to make big plays and force turnovers. Same as always.

Advantage: Cowboys

Dallas is the 3-point favorite at home. The Cowboys win 58 percent of the simulations at Accuscore who notes that turnovers factor big in games as close as this. My Magic 8 Ball likes the 'Skins over the 'Boys – "it is decidedly so." (Woo-hoo!)

The good news? I asked it twice. The 8 Ball has been correct two weeks in a row.

HAIL and Happy Thanksgiving.

Image: Redskins-Cowboys GAMEDAY cover from Hog Heaven's personal library

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News that Brandon Meriweather tore his ACL in yesterday's Eagles game burst the bubble of good feelings at the win over the Eagles.

Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan says Meriweather will be lost for the season. Man!

I promise that I'll be back next yr better then ever.Hard work pays off. God had something different for me this year. So see y'all next yr

— Brandon Meriweather (@BMeriweather31) November 19, 2012

I liked Meriweather's performance against the Eagles yesterday, especially his interception. He may not be Sean Taylor, but he was a boost to the worst position on the team.

Lets be serious. How much do you expect to see of Pierre Garçon as an active receiver this year? Until he proves he can stretch a field, I say not much. If the Redskins don't beat the Cowboys and the Giants in the next two games, I think we should not see him at all. Let him get better for next year, if he promises no more showboat somersaults when he scores.  

Now, there's four things you don't see in Washington every day.

1.       The Redskins win in a blowout.

2.       The Redskins beat a beatable team.

3.       The Redskins won at home.

4.       A really bad Andy Reid team.

Washington was anywhere from 1½ to four-point favorites going into the Philadelphia game. They won by 25. Nobody but my Magic 8 Ball saw that coming.

The Redskins did it by returning to the formula that gave a measure of success early in the season – big plays and turnovers. Robert Griffin III threw TG passes of 49, 61 and 17 yards to go with his garden-variety six-yard scoring strike to FB Darrel Young. Venerable Santana Moss attacked the ball on his 61-yard catch, while TE Logan Paulson swirled for the score after his second-effort spin move.

The safety who blew the coverage on Aldrick Robinson's 41-yard touchdown was Nate Allen, the 2nd round pick the Eagles made via McNabb trade

— Daniel Shiferaw (@dshif) November 19, 2012

On the flip side, Alfred Morris rushed for another 76 yards. Morris was acquired via 6th round pick from...McNabb trade. The second one

— Daniel Shiferaw (@dshif) November 19, 2012

The defense seemingly never got to Eagles rookie Nick Foles, but Foles threw interceptions in Philly's first two possessions. The Redskins converted the first to what turned out to be the winning touchdown early in the first quarter. The second ended a penalty-marred, 82-yard, 6:46 drive that might have led to an Eagles score.

Brandon Meriweather was everywhere on that drive and it was he who snagged the INT. That's a tease of what the Redskins D might have accomplished if Meriweather played. As it was, he was making his appearance for the Redskins and did not last the game. Meriweather tweaked his right knee in the second half and the 'Skins held him out as a precaution to be ready for the Dallas game.  

In the time he played, Meriweather scored seven tackles, two passes defended, an interception, and he silenced for the moment calls to fire Jim Haslett.

FedEx Field has been so friendly to the Eagles, that they call it Franklin Financial South. With the win, the Redskins "improved" to 5-15 in home games in the Shanahan Era.  

We knew the Eagles were in a downward spiral. They entered the game with the same 3-6 record as their hosts. They came without Michael Vick, the man to whom Robert Griffin III is most compared. Their O-line started a player, Jake Scott, signed a few days before the game. It was a line even the Redskins maligned pass rush could dominate.

The Eagles didn't make it easy, despite what the score implied. Philadelphia dominated time of possession in the first half for 19 of 30 minutes. But, it was clear throughout the game that this was not a bad team. The Eagles are a dreadful team. I feel a small measure of sympathy for their fans.

Worst play of the day for #Redskins' defense? Allowing 20-yd completion on 3rd&17. Can't happen. Johnson got open on dig between 59 and 41.

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) November 19, 2012

One of Hog Heaven's concerns going into the game was that Eagles players would go all out to save Andy Reid's job. Bad things will happen to a number of those players if Reid is fired, which seems more likely every day.

But no, The Eagles played as if they quit on Reid, overwhelmed by the problems before them. It's unsettling to watch.

RGIII may qualify for Rookie of the Week even though Sunday's performance won't count.

Griffin III completed 14 of 15 pass attempts for 200 yards and four touchdowns for a near-perfect 158.3 QBR. The NFL will not recognize the record officially points out Rich Tandler. The league requires 20 pass attempts to write it in the books. Rich takes note of one oddity. "If Griffin had thrown the five additional passes required to have his rating 'count' in the record books and all of them had been incomplete he still would have had that perfect 158.3 rating."

Such technicalities won't stop the league from promoting the heck out of Griffin, one of its hottest young guns whose luminous persona can be sold to endorse pretty much anything from shoes to sandwiches.

Therein lays a risk. We are all human. The seeds of our failure are planted in our success. Hubris has failed many top performers who felt they had done enough. (Looking at you, Cam Newton.) Hog Heaven writer Greg Trippiedi want everyone, player, coaches, fans to hold Griffin to a higher standard as we go forward.

"But it's worth pointing out that in a lot of passing metrics (and some rushing metrics), Griffin is performing closer to the level of Russell Wilson, who was picked two and a half rounds later, than he is to Andrew Luck, who went with the top overall pick.  Griffin's season has still been exceptional in so many ways, if not 'three first round picks' exceptional."

There will be praise heaped on @rgiii for that touchdown he heaved into double coverage....

— Andrew Brandt (@adbrandt) November 18, 2012

Greg points out the convergence of pro teams moving to college offenses as the growing complexity of those offenses produce more NFL ready-from-day-one quarterbacks. Griffin could be quite ordinary compared to new talent unless he and Mike Shanahan are very smart about his professional growth.

Images:
Eagles vs. Redskins found here.
Robert Griffin III vs. Eagles found here.

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Robert Griffin III has been the best thing to come to the Washington Redskins in a long time.  But as we watch the second half of his rookie campaign, we must be careful not to give him too many accolades too quickly.

We won't know until this time next year whether the Redskins coaches have done a great job protecting him from the complexity of NFL defensive schemes, or if their control-based, limited offense is holding back the best weapon in Washington sports history.  But in the doubt comes a lesson: if Griffin is expected to deliver too much too soon, that the warning signs of an impending collapse are already there.

It's entirely on Mike Shanahan to get this one right: it will be the only thing that determines if he has a job with the Redskins next year.  If Griffin is being held back, he has to cut him loose.  If he's protected him to this point, then he has to stay the course and handle the criticisms of his coaching methods in stride.

Because the facts about Griffin's statistical performance to date paint a very mixed picture.  Griffin ranks sixth in the league according to the Pro Football Focus Grades, and tenth according to game film-adjusted Total QBR.  But the further you get away from comprehensive grades that take the whole operation into account and into raw statistics, Griffin's performance begins to look a little rocky (albeit still fantastic for a rookie).  His completion percentage and yards per attempt, which both led the NFL three weeks ago, have fallen back to earth.  Griffin isn't quite even average (0.0%) in passing DVOA this season, a mark which Jason Campbell achieved three separate times in his career.  Griffin's sack rate on the season still sits above 7.0%.

In the context of grading a rookie, none of this should raise red flags.  But it's worth pointing out that in a lot of passing metrics (and some rushing metrics), Griffin is performing closer to the level of Russell Wilson, who was picked two and a half rounds later, than he is to Andrew Luck, who went with the top overall pick.  Griffin's season has still been exceptional in so many ways, if not "three first round picks" exceptionial.

Furthermore, in future seasons, the shift in the complexity of the college game is creating a world where highly drafted quarterbacks come to the league with NFL-ready skill sets.  This obviously benefitted Griffin and Luck a lot, as it did for Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Matt Ryan before them.  But it will also benefit the rookies that come after Griffin and Luck to a much greater degree.  And when you look at the careers of those rookie sensations, it's been a mixed bag, at best.

If the last three games end up being the weakest three games of Robert Griffin's Redskins career, he'll end the season as an ROY candidate, and his career as a hall of famer.  But if they become a trend in his production, the Redskins are going to need to improve the team considerably in order to win with him.