Hog Heaven thinks there are three stats to worth watching in pro football. They are:

1.       QB Passer Rating Differential

2.       Turnover Differential

3.       Defensive Third Down Conversions Allowed

Those stats led us to project a narrow win over the Eagles last Sunday. Boy, were we wrong, in a good way.

The Passer Rating between Robert Griffin III and Nick Foles was laughably different (158.3 vs. 40.4). The Redskins forced three turnovers, the Eagles none. For once, Washington did a better job on third down stops (36% allowed) than the opponent (45% allowed).

Philadelphia is unraveling before our eyes. It's hard to watch a proud franchise go through that. Most Hog Heaven readers do not share the sympathy. The Dallas Cowboys are not unraveling. They are a more severe test for the Washington RGIIIs, for what would the 'Skins be without RGIII.

What do the three stats worth watching signal for Redskins at Cowboys tomorrow afternoon?

QB Passer Rating Differential

Redskins QBR 98.8, Opponents QBR 89.1; Differential +9.7
 Cowboys QBR 87.7, Opponents QBR 90.7; Differential -3.0

When was the last time we saw the Redskins passing game out-performing the Cowboys' game? The Redskins show up well because Griffin III throws few inceptions. The Cowboys struggle on offense, I don't put all that on Tony Romo, the quarterback everyone including Cowboys fans love to hate. Cowboys receivers are much better than Redskins receivers are, but they tune out at critical times. Dallas running game isn't balancing the offense. Thus, Romo has as many picks (13) as TD passes.

The Redskins went into the Eagles game allowing opposing quarterbacks a passer rating of 95.4. The Eagles secondary was as bad as the Redskins were good. Romo is no Nick Foles. The Redskins are without Brandon Meriweather. I never thought I'd write that and mean it as a significant loss of talent. Meriweather, like the rest of Mike Shanahan's 2012 free agent class, just seems snake bit.

Cold Hard Football Facts calls the QBR Differential a meaningful stat with a reliability factor of 65 percent. CHFF means that to apply over the course of a game, but the pregame total hints at what to expect.

In spite of the Eagles-fueled differential, I'm calling it a push between Romo and Robert Griffin III.

Turnover Differential

Redskins +8
Cowboys -14

You'd think Tony Romo's interceptions are the problem, but not so. The Cowboys forced six turnovers in 10 games, while committing 20 of its own. The Redskins forced 16 turnovers. Lets stop calling the Redskins defense "bad" and start to call them "disruptive." Both of the teams in last season's Super Bowl had bad defenses. Both were disruptive.

See? Jim Haslett gets it. Why can't the rest of us?

Advantage: Redskins

Defensive third Downs Allowed

Redskins 43%
Cowboys 35%

The Redskins showed well in this category against Philly, but the Eagles couldn't get out of its own way on offense. We can't say the 'Skins "improved," not when the Eagles held the ball for 19:11 of the first half.

That's a problem. Dallas isn't running well, but may not need to in order to keep RGIII and Washington's offense on the sideline. The Cowboys are going to possess the ball for longer than the Redskins will. For Washington to have a shot – and they do have a shot – they have to make big plays and force turnovers. Same as always.

Advantage: Cowboys

Dallas is the 3-point favorite at home. The Cowboys win 58 percent of the simulations at Accuscore who notes that turnovers factor big in games as close as this. My Magic 8 Ball likes the 'Skins over the 'Boys – "it is decidedly so." (Woo-hoo!)

The good news? I asked it twice. The 8 Ball has been correct two weeks in a row.

HAIL and Happy Thanksgiving.

Image: Redskins-Cowboys GAMEDAY cover from Hog Heaven's personal library

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News that Brandon Meriweather tore his ACL in yesterday's Eagles game burst the bubble of good feelings at the win over the Eagles.

Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan says Meriweather will be lost for the season. Man!

I promise that I'll be back next yr better then ever.Hard work pays off. God had something different for me this year. So see y'all next yr

— Brandon Meriweather (@BMeriweather31) November 19, 2012

I liked Meriweather's performance against the Eagles yesterday, especially his interception. He may not be Sean Taylor, but he was a boost to the worst position on the team.

Lets be serious. How much do you expect to see of Pierre Garçon as an active receiver this year? Until he proves he can stretch a field, I say not much. If the Redskins don't beat the Cowboys and the Giants in the next two games, I think we should not see him at all. Let him get better for next year, if he promises no more showboat somersaults when he scores.  

Now, there's four things you don't see in Washington every day.

1.       The Redskins win in a blowout.

2.       The Redskins beat a beatable team.

3.       The Redskins won at home.

4.       A really bad Andy Reid team.

Washington was anywhere from 1½ to four-point favorites going into the Philadelphia game. They won by 25. Nobody but my Magic 8 Ball saw that coming.

The Redskins did it by returning to the formula that gave a measure of success early in the season – big plays and turnovers. Robert Griffin III threw TG passes of 49, 61 and 17 yards to go with his garden-variety six-yard scoring strike to FB Darrel Young. Venerable Santana Moss attacked the ball on his 61-yard catch, while TE Logan Paulson swirled for the score after his second-effort spin move.

The safety who blew the coverage on Aldrick Robinson's 41-yard touchdown was Nate Allen, the 2nd round pick the Eagles made via McNabb trade

— Daniel Shiferaw (@dshif) November 19, 2012

On the flip side, Alfred Morris rushed for another 76 yards. Morris was acquired via 6th round pick from...McNabb trade. The second one

— Daniel Shiferaw (@dshif) November 19, 2012

The defense seemingly never got to Eagles rookie Nick Foles, but Foles threw interceptions in Philly's first two possessions. The Redskins converted the first to what turned out to be the winning touchdown early in the first quarter. The second ended a penalty-marred, 82-yard, 6:46 drive that might have led to an Eagles score.

Brandon Meriweather was everywhere on that drive and it was he who snagged the INT. That's a tease of what the Redskins D might have accomplished if Meriweather played. As it was, he was making his appearance for the Redskins and did not last the game. Meriweather tweaked his right knee in the second half and the 'Skins held him out as a precaution to be ready for the Dallas game.  

In the time he played, Meriweather scored seven tackles, two passes defended, an interception, and he silenced for the moment calls to fire Jim Haslett.

FedEx Field has been so friendly to the Eagles, that they call it Franklin Financial South. With the win, the Redskins "improved" to 5-15 in home games in the Shanahan Era.  

We knew the Eagles were in a downward spiral. They entered the game with the same 3-6 record as their hosts. They came without Michael Vick, the man to whom Robert Griffin III is most compared. Their O-line started a player, Jake Scott, signed a few days before the game. It was a line even the Redskins maligned pass rush could dominate.

The Eagles didn't make it easy, despite what the score implied. Philadelphia dominated time of possession in the first half for 19 of 30 minutes. But, it was clear throughout the game that this was not a bad team. The Eagles are a dreadful team. I feel a small measure of sympathy for their fans.

Worst play of the day for #Redskins' defense? Allowing 20-yd completion on 3rd&17. Can't happen. Johnson got open on dig between 59 and 41.

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) November 19, 2012

One of Hog Heaven's concerns going into the game was that Eagles players would go all out to save Andy Reid's job. Bad things will happen to a number of those players if Reid is fired, which seems more likely every day.

But no, The Eagles played as if they quit on Reid, overwhelmed by the problems before them. It's unsettling to watch.

RGIII may qualify for Rookie of the Week even though Sunday's performance won't count.

Griffin III completed 14 of 15 pass attempts for 200 yards and four touchdowns for a near-perfect 158.3 QBR. The NFL will not recognize the record officially points out Rich Tandler. The league requires 20 pass attempts to write it in the books. Rich takes note of one oddity. "If Griffin had thrown the five additional passes required to have his rating 'count' in the record books and all of them had been incomplete he still would have had that perfect 158.3 rating."

Such technicalities won't stop the league from promoting the heck out of Griffin, one of its hottest young guns whose luminous persona can be sold to endorse pretty much anything from shoes to sandwiches.

Therein lays a risk. We are all human. The seeds of our failure are planted in our success. Hubris has failed many top performers who felt they had done enough. (Looking at you, Cam Newton.) Hog Heaven writer Greg Trippiedi want everyone, player, coaches, fans to hold Griffin to a higher standard as we go forward.

"But it's worth pointing out that in a lot of passing metrics (and some rushing metrics), Griffin is performing closer to the level of Russell Wilson, who was picked two and a half rounds later, than he is to Andrew Luck, who went with the top overall pick.  Griffin's season has still been exceptional in so many ways, if not 'three first round picks' exceptional."

There will be praise heaped on @rgiii for that touchdown he heaved into double coverage....

— Andrew Brandt (@adbrandt) November 18, 2012

Greg points out the convergence of pro teams moving to college offenses as the growing complexity of those offenses produce more NFL ready-from-day-one quarterbacks. Griffin could be quite ordinary compared to new talent unless he and Mike Shanahan are very smart about his professional growth.

Images:
Eagles vs. Redskins found here.
Robert Griffin III vs. Eagles found here.

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Robert Griffin III has been the best thing to come to the Washington Redskins in a long time.  But as we watch the second half of his rookie campaign, we must be careful not to give him too many accolades too quickly.

We won't know until this time next year whether the Redskins coaches have done a great job protecting him from the complexity of NFL defensive schemes, or if their control-based, limited offense is holding back the best weapon in Washington sports history.  But in the doubt comes a lesson: if Griffin is expected to deliver too much too soon, that the warning signs of an impending collapse are already there.

It's entirely on Mike Shanahan to get this one right: it will be the only thing that determines if he has a job with the Redskins next year.  If Griffin is being held back, he has to cut him loose.  If he's protected him to this point, then he has to stay the course and handle the criticisms of his coaching methods in stride.

Because the facts about Griffin's statistical performance to date paint a very mixed picture.  Griffin ranks sixth in the league according to the Pro Football Focus Grades, and tenth according to game film-adjusted Total QBR.  But the further you get away from comprehensive grades that take the whole operation into account and into raw statistics, Griffin's performance begins to look a little rocky (albeit still fantastic for a rookie).  His completion percentage and yards per attempt, which both led the NFL three weeks ago, have fallen back to earth.  Griffin isn't quite even average (0.0%) in passing DVOA this season, a mark which Jason Campbell achieved three separate times in his career.  Griffin's sack rate on the season still sits above 7.0%.

In the context of grading a rookie, none of this should raise red flags.  But it's worth pointing out that in a lot of passing metrics (and some rushing metrics), Griffin is performing closer to the level of Russell Wilson, who was picked two and a half rounds later, than he is to Andrew Luck, who went with the top overall pick.  Griffin's season has still been exceptional in so many ways, if not "three first round picks" exceptionial.

Furthermore, in future seasons, the shift in the complexity of the college game is creating a world where highly drafted quarterbacks come to the league with NFL-ready skill sets.  This obviously benefitted Griffin and Luck a lot, as it did for Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Matt Ryan before them.  But it will also benefit the rookies that come after Griffin and Luck to a much greater degree.  And when you look at the careers of those rookie sensations, it's been a mixed bag, at best.

If the last three games end up being the weakest three games of Robert Griffin's Redskins career, he'll end the season as an ROY candidate, and his career as a hall of famer.  But if they become a trend in his production, the Redskins are going to need to improve the team considerably in order to win with him.

Hog Heaven wracks its brain to recall when a pro team named new team captains mid-season. Oh yeah. We've never seen this before. Like, never...in the history of Earth.

I am surprised that the professional class didn't dig deeper into news that the Redskins named Robert Griffin III, Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield as "additional" team captains.

I am 100 percent certain I read somewhere that DeAngelo Hall is (or was) a team captain. D.Hall's name wasn't mentioned in any of the press clippings about the new captains. The silence is deafening, and it speaks volumes if Hall has been shoved aside for players with genuine leadership qualities. 

That would be impressive enough if Coach Shanahan did it, and all the more so if the players did it on their own.

Hall talks a good game and says the right things. That makes one a spokesman, not a leader. When real team leaders are pulling you off game officials to keep you from hurting the team more, well ... must I say more? 

There's a connection. I'm sure of it. Good employers never speak of these things in public.

Redskins fans have had it to here with Hall. Few fans would mourn or miss him if the Redskins cut ties to him after the last game.

Eagles at Redskins – Stats worth watching

Hog Heaven pays attention to three stats when it comes to projecting Redskins performance in live games.

QB Passer Rating Differential – Cold Hard Football Facts insists this is the single best predictor of the outcome of games.

Redskins QBR 91.9, Opponents 95.4, Diff -3.5
Eagles QBR 79.7, Opponents 85.4, Diff -5.7

The negative differential explains in a nutshell a pair of 3-6 teams. When Washington gets in the positive range, they will win titles. Fos Sunday's game, they have to be less bad than Philadelphia. Robert Griffin III alone cannot balance out a flawed team any better than Tony Romo can.  

The Eagles could not protect Michael Vick from assault in every game. The result has been high turnover and poor performance. Rookie Nick Foles entered in place of Vick against Dallas and had a better performance. It was a small sample size. As my friend Forrest Gump would say, Foles is like a box or chocolate. You never know what you're going to get.

The Eagles would have us believe that Vick will be out. The Redskins don't do well against quarterback's they've never seen before. Still, we think the advantage goes to the Redskins on this one.

Turnover Differential

This is one of two stats that Richie Pettibon says are the only one he pays attention to.

Redskins +6
Eagles -11

Philly's turnover issue goes hand-in-hand with quarterback performance. Nick Foles will help the Iggles a lot if he protects the ball as well as RGIII does. Until we see Foles do it, lets give the advantage to Washington.

Defensive Third Downs Allowed

Redskins – 49/112, 43.8%
Eagles – 40/114, 35.1%

The Redskins have trouble getting opponents off the field. Teams are already thinking they can contain RGIII on the sideline via time of possession. The maligned Philly defense, now led by ex-Redskins DB Todd Bowles, is better at this by far. Advantage; Eagles.

Superior quarterback play and turnover differential will carry Washington to a narrow win. New factors -- Brandon Meriweather for the Redskins, Foles for the Eagles -- also point to Washington. My Magic 8 Ball says Redskins .. Without a doubt.

Redskins 30, Eagles 28. Total - 58. (If in Vegas, take the Eagles and the points, but you didn't read that here.)
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I will broadcast my fan reaction and comments during the game by PC again, thanks to the technomagic of LetMeHearYa.com. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET. Join me at 12:55 PM. Don't be alarmed if there are moments of silence at points. I'm watching the game just like you. I am not doing an audio rebroadcast or any of the stuff the NFL says not to do in that legal stuff on TV. A man is entitled to his opinion. I'm sharing mine.

Point your PC or other device to my LetMeHearYa Profile page, click a few buttons and we are golden.

HAIL
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The Redskins will beat the Eagles this Sunday, says Thomas Jackson, one of our oldest blogging friends, who covers Philadelphia on Eagles Eye blog. His description of what ails the Eagles will sound very familiar to Redskins fans.

Redskins-Eagles after the Gibbs I era has not been a happy affair for Washingtonians. It wasn't that easy even then. Washington has never beaten a Michael Vick-quarterbacked team when Vick played a complete game. Vick looks to be OUT against the Redskins after suffering a traumatic brain injury against Dallas last weekend. Nick Foles will start in his place. Problem is that the Redskins are 1-7 against rookie quarterbacks, and they have no home field advantage in the Age of the Shanaclan.

The 'Skins are 3½ favorites over the Iggles. Hog Heaven dares not take a win for granted.  Washington underwhelmed against the Rams, and played stupidly against the Panthers. Teams like Philadelphia and Cleveland fill us with dread. My Magic 8 Ball says the Redskins will beat the Eagles "without a doubt."

Better to go to Eagles Eye for answers. I like the part where Eagles Eye thinks the Redskins may challenge for a wild card. Read on.

RHH: I picked the Eagles for Beast of the East in a story for This Given Sunday. How did this go so horribly wrong?

Anthony, it really all goes back to something you wisely stated in September of 2011---"You can't buy a championship in the NFL..." The big free agent spending the Eagles have done over the past two seasons could not negate some fundamental problems in scheme and communication on the defensive side of the ball. Combine that with the loss of All-Pro LT Jason Peters (Achilles tendon) in the offseason, and then the loss of center Jason Kelce (ACL) and RT Todd Herremans (ankle)  during the season, and the offensive line collapsed...resulting in the ultimate TKO of Michael Vick, who was simply pounded into turnovers and physical submission over the course of 9 games.

RHH: Give me the name of a rising star that Redskins fans have never heard of. Explain...

One bright spot has been the emergence of rookie Bryce Brown, a big running back at 6-0, 223, who was drafted as a project out of Kansas State in the 7th round. Brown barely played at all his last two seasons in college due to a variety of personal reasons. But, he has emerged as the 2-back the Eagles have been seeking for a long time. Brown will get between 5 and 9 carries against the Redskins, and he'll be looking to burst between the tackles and then sprint past the second level. He's a very good pass-pro blocker, too. He's opened some eyes in Philly as the 1-2 punch the Eagles have needed behind Shady McCoy.

Note: Bryce Brown wears jersey No. 34.

RHH: Some Philly reports have Kyle Shanahan on the short list of potential replacement for Reid. How does that strike you?

I think the Kyle Shanahan to Philly rumor is interesting... Kyle would have the proven ability to make better use of the offensive pieces the Eagles already have. I think he'd want the running game to be the team's driving offensive force. A lot of fans in Philly would like that. I also think he would modify the defense to more of a 3-4 look...many fans would love that. What I don't know about Kyle is his ability or willingness to deal with the relentless pressures of the Philly media. This town eats coaches for breakfast.

Note: Redskins fans would wish Kyle every success that he has so far enjoyed here.

RHH: How will the Eagles attack the Redskins defense?

Tentatively at first, they're going with a rookie QB in Nick Foles, a 3rd-round pick out of Arizona, 6-6, 243, and this is Foles' first start. I think they'll start with a lot of handoffs to McCoy, screens to their tight ends, and some quick-hit slants to DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. I think they want Foles to stick to that kind of script until they get a feel for just how much they can trust their offensive line, which right now is a patchwork mess.

If Foles can absorb the different looks the Redskins will be giving him, and if he can get any kind of decent protection in the gun, they will eventually open up the game plan. Foles has a strong arm and a decent release and can go deep to Jackson and Maclin. He also has a large target in wideout Riley Cooper (6-4, 3rd year, Florida) who will be trying to get open deep.

(RHH note: Will Reid run a read-option offense to help his rookie QB? Danger, Will Robinson. Danger.)

RHH: How should the Redskins attack the Eagles defense?

Assuming RGIII has Shanny's blessing to do whatever he wants (including pass) from the option, I honestly think the Redskins should establish the run early, especially with Alfred Morris who I think is ideally suited to find the holes in the Eagles' "over defense nine technique". If the 'Skins establish the running game, they can play-action all day long against the Eagles' secondary, who have been prone to bite on the double-move all season long.

If the game is close late in the 3rd or 4th quarters, the Eagles should be tired from chasing Morris and Griffin. The Eagles have not shown they are a good tackling team, either. They have some deficiencies of depth at the safety and linebacker positions, and a rookie (Brandon Boykin) playing the nickel corner. RGIII will have the edge with misdirection, play-action and the option if this game stays close to the end. In nearly every one of their 6 losses this season, the Eagles have lost or blown the game late in the second half.

RHH: Your prediction for the game, and for the division order of finish.

I predict the 'Skins prevail in this one, 28-14.... and all hell breaks loose in Philly with demands for Andy Reid's resignation. (Yeah, and all hell will break loose around here if Washington loses.)

I predict the 2012 order of finish in the NFC East as: Giants, Redskins, Cowboys, Eagles...  Hopefully, Redskins sneak into a Wild Card.
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Hog Heaven has followed Tom Jackson for years.  He is an Eagles fan, but unsparing in writing what's good and bad about his team. I've never seen him more discouraged about Philadelphia. It does seem an era is ending up there. For all we know, Reid is a potential future head coach of the Redskins. He owes us something for the McNabb swindle.

For genuine insight on the Philadelphia Eagles, visit Eagles Eye Blog often.

Images:
Redskins vs. Eagles found here.
Photoshopped Daniel Snyder from here.
Nick Foles, University of Arizona from here.
Alfred Morris, found here.

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