Nickel Defense: The Redskins and their Even Fronts

Written by Greg Trippiedi on .

PHILADELPHIA - NOVEMBER 29:  Michael Vick #7 of the Philadelphia Eagles passes the ball against Andre Carter #99 of the Washington Redskins during their game at Lincoln Financial Field on November 29, 2009 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

If you take a good hard look at the details of the Redskins new 3-4 defense this preseason, well, you'll likely notice that our formations aren't much different from the way they were last year.  The Redskins ran a lot of odd fronts last year, taking advantage of the defensive line histories of OLBs Brian Orakpo and Chris Wilson.  This year, the biggest switch is that Andre Carter is going from the weak side to the strong side, and Orakpo is going to the weakside.  You pick Carter's hand up off the ground, slide the interior lineman towards the strong side, and move Rocky McIntosh inside the tight end and you have this year's base front.  It's not a big difference, so long as the offense lines up in a pro set with two receivers.

When the offense comes out in three receiver sets, the difference is night and day.  Last season, in rushing downs (usually first downs), the Redskins would try to defend three and four receiver sets with their base 4-3 personnel.  I shouldn't need to tell you how dumb this was, as even high school quarterbacks know when they see a linebacker splitting the distance between a tackle and a split end that 1) it's zone coverage, and 2) he's not going to get blitzed.  The Redskins rightly came under criticism last season for such practices, and as you might predict for a team trying to outnumber it's opponent in the box, fell to 20th in passing defense DVOA and stayed at the top of the league in rushing defense DVOA.

But this year, the Redskins have a new gameplan that is more in line with the modern game, where teams match defensive personnel to offensive personnel.  That in itself isn't surprising.  What is more interesting is how the Redskins line up in their front when they go with five plus DBs.  Those "odd" fronts that the team has employed since the beginning of last year, and will feature as a base set: they're gone in our pass defense sets.  The Redskins base nickel look, at least through two preseason games, involves a pair of down lineman, and two stand-up ends.  That's a four man front.  You could call it a 2-4-5 defense if you wish, but if I'm an offensive coordinator, I can't treat either Brian Orakpo or Andre Carter as stand-up linebackers when I know that two down lineman are dictate that they will be coming a lot.  It's essentially a 4-2 nickel formation (even front) from a 3-4 concept (odd front): the interior players are still trying to disrupt and eat up blocks (while still trying to pressure the quarterback, Mr. Haynesworth), trying to get one of the four linebackers free to hit the quarterback.

This is not an unprecidented defensive look, in fact the Redskins faced a similar scheme when they played the Arizona Cardinals in 2008, back when Clancy Pendergast was the defensive coordinator, and the Cardinals would go on to play in the Super Bowl, representing the NFC.  This version of the nickel defense hasn't exactly proliferated from there.  The Dallas Cowboys do something similar, but usually let DeMarcus Ware put his hand on the ground since, well, have you seen him in coverage?

But the question you'd want answered isn't is it unprecidented, its: will it work?  Can the Redskins get pressure on the quarterback in the situations they struggled in: long yardage, and third downs?  The advantage to using stand-up 'backers in the nickel defense is that until that rusher engages the offensive tackle, there's always some amount of doubt in the tackle's mind as to what he is going to see.  Most of the time, it's not going to matter that the rusher is in a two point stance: he's coming around the edge.  But having them as linebackers gives the flexibility to pick which gap you want to attack as a defense, and use the most creative schemes to attack that weakness.  It makes the other two linebackers more of a factor in the pressure scheme.  Stunts are easier.

But you trade in the first-step advantage that the defense has with the offense from putting one's face right down on the line of scrimmage next to the football.  You lose the muscle memory advantage of getting the leverage on an offensive tackle from a familiar three-point stance.  And that was one of the team's pass rushing strength's last season.

It's not a difficult transition to admit a mistake and let them rush with their hands in the dirt if they struggle early.  And I'm a huge proponent of double A-gap pressure, something this scheme can use that the previous scheme could not.  I think the rush will be more successful in the specific situations they struggled in last year.  But overall, I do think the pass pressure is going to take a small step backwards, and I'm not so sure it will be an adjustment step.  It will, however, be the first time in three years that the Redskins don't need the linebackers to be integral parts of the coverage unit to stop an offense.  And that can only mean trouble for opposing quarterbacks.  But last year, our ends couldn't be stopped by most protection schemes, and change in our nickel defensive look seems, at best, a bit unnecessary.

And as a prediction, I think the biggest plays for this defense are going to come after the quarterbacks throw the ball, rather than before.  That will also be a welcome change for a unit that has ranked near the bottom of the league in interceptions every year since 2006.

The Jets Are Cursed By The Super Bowl Hype

Written by Anthony Brown on .

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - AUGUST 16:  Kellen Clemens #11 of the New York Jets  is sacked by Chris Horton #48 and Antwaan Randle El #82 of the Washington Redskins in a pre-season NFL game at Giants Stadium, August 16, 2008 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images)

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The build-up around the 2010 New York J-E-T-S-JETS JETS JETS reminds me of the hype around the 2006 Redskins and the Cowboys of 2007 ('08, '09 and '10). It's "their year." They can't miss the Super Bowl. Bet the rent money.

Super Bowl fever is a curse that jinxes any chance the Jets have for the Super Bowl. But it's human nature, not any voodoo that will do the Jets in.

The effect of everyone saying how good you are is that you start thinking you are better than you really are. So you relax. Not by much, mind you. Just enough to suppress championship performance.

You don't know you are doing it because you're still hustling. You're making every effort. Your owner goes out and buys that one last piece needed to win it all. In the Jets case, that would be LaDainian Tomlinson and Jason Taylor, as they shoo away RB Thomas Jones, S Kerry Rhodes and G Alan Faneca. How did that exchange for Brett Favre for Chad Pennington work out? 

Hype about their prospects leads CB Darrelle Revis to think he can leverage a new deal when he has three years left on his contract (They-can't-win-the-super-Bowl-without-me syndrome.)

Hype about their prospects brings HBO coverage and its distractions. Apparently, Rex Ryan is the only NFL coach who swears--as if any son of Buddy Ryan could do otherwise.

There's a fine line between confidence and complacency. Only in hindsight does one know when that line was crossed. Hype about the Jets impedes their path to the Super Bowl, along with the Patriots, the Dolphins, The Colts, the Chargers.... It's all so depressingly familiar to Redskins fans.

Familiar Faces

The NFL is a small world and a round one. Laveranues Coles is back with the Jets after a one year hiatus with the Bengals. Coles was a high performing receiver with the Redskins in the Spurrier system in 2003, but was frustrated by the Joe Gibbs offense when he snagged more catches (90) for fewer yards (950) and touchdowns (1) in 2004.

Coles was vocal about that with Gibbs who traded him to the Jets for Santana Moss. In five years with Washington, Moss exceeded Coles' '03 performance only once, in 2005 when he set the Redskins single season receiving record for 1483 yards and nine touchdowns.

Redskins owner Danny Snyder professed man-love last year for rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez, the one-year wonder out of Southern Cal. The Redskins couldn't move up in the draft order to get Sanchez and stuck by Jason Campbell. Check that. They were stuck with Jason in Snyderrato's view.

If Sanchez were on the roster, Donovan McNabb would not be here now. I have a hunch McNabb's numbers will be better than Sanchez's, regardless of the won-loss records for these teams. That's not to knock Sanchez. The guy is only in his second season, so his performance could go either way.

The take-away for Snyder is that players are like busses. If you miss one, another will come along. There is no such thing as a must-have free-agent player.

Point After: The New York Jets have been a favorite trading partner for the Redskins over the years. Randy Thomas, John Hall and Pete Kendall came from the Jets as have Moss and Coles.

The Redskins traded QB Patrick Ramsey to the Jets when a few of us thought Ramsey got a raw deal from Steve Spurrier's ill-fitting offense and Joe Gibbs' quick hook. We thought Ramsey was a first round talent who needed a fresh start anywhere else but here. It's a recurring theme around Washington.

How did the Skins miss out on G Alan Faneca when the Jets released him after the draft? Maybe the Jets aren't on Bruce Allen's speed dial yet. 

 

Donovan McNabb's Ankle Injury

Written by Greg Trippiedi on .

Washington Redskins quarterback Donovan McNabb tries to pass against Baltimore Ravens Ray Lewis during the first quarter at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland on August 21, 2010. The pass was incomplete. UPI/Alexis C. Glenn Photo via Newscom

Fresh off a sprained ankle suffered in the Baltimore game, reports out of Redskins Park confirm that Donovan McNabb will miss next weekend's preseason game against the New York Jets.  Rex Grossman will start at quarterback.

"I don't think he could go if it was a regular season game," said coach Mike Shanahan, per CSNWashington's Ryan O'Halloran.

This, likely, is a bit of hyperbole on coach's part.  Perhaps this would be true if it was a regular season game preceding a bye week against the Detroit Lions, McNabb would sit the week with a sprained ankle.  If that regular season game came against the Dallas Cowboys at FedEx Field, uh, no McNabb would not sit out the game, swelling in the ankle or not.  This is the man who once played three quarters against the Arizona Cardinals in 2002 on a broken ankle.  Jason Campbell started all 16 games last year on a gimpy ankle.  Of course McNabb would play.

Coincidently, the third preseason game -- the regular season dress rehearsal as it is often referred to -- is being played against Rex Ryan's Jets.  The number one defense in the NFL last year.  The defense which, even if you can break down their secondary with route combinations, can still blow up your plays by finding the weak link in your pass protection unit, and quickly.  Rex Ryan's pressure defense got McNabb benched the last time they played, in Baltimore during the 2008 season.  There's nothing to prepare for, as the only time that Redskins could possibly see the Jets again this year is in Super Bowl 45.  Clearly, keeping McNabb out of the line of fire, and sacrificing Rex Grossman to the wolves, is the proper coaching decision.

We likely will not see McNabb again before the season opener vs. Dallas.  And, frankly, there's no reason for him to put himself out there before that.  He passed the preseason tests against the Bills, and outside of a badly underthrown deep ball against the Ravens with Anthony Armstrong behind the coverage, has looked the part of the quarterback that the Redskins traded for.  He's a veteran, and anyone who thinks he's in need of a tune up or more timing with receivers is overthinking the necessity for the preseason.  The number one thing is to make sure McNabb is as healthy as possible for the season.

McNabb's biggest problem might be that the Redskins haven't ever been able to block Dallas nose tackle Jay Ratliff, and haven't changed the interior of the OL since last year (with the exception of Artis Hicks, who replaces Mike Williams).  McNabb is very good when throwing under pressure, but there is pressure, which can be caused by Trent Williams giving the edge to DeMarcus Ware, and there's the other kind of pressure: when the opposing defensive tackle splits his double team on every passing play from the shotgun.  On those plays, you need your ankles to be strong enough to get out of the pocket, which isn't being made due to a mismatch on the defensive line.

The biggest news here isn't something superficial.  It's that McNabb needs to be able to move in the pocket -- and to get out of it -- in order to save his offensive line against the Cowboys.  If the swelling on his ankle is bad enough three weeks from now, he may be limited in his capacity to do so.  And that could tip the scales of that game in favor of his Cowboys.  Of course, with plenty of time to alter the gameplan for that game, the Redskins could take pressure off McNabb by ordering a heavy dose of Clinton Portis on the ground.  And thus, this ankle injury to Donovan McNabb is just one more move in the chess game that is the NFL regular season.

And Shanahan's statements on McNabb's health should be read in such a context.

Redskins Favored Over The Ravens. Shanahan Favored Over Zorn

Written by Anthony Brown on .

Baltimore Ravens' quarterback Joe Flacco is tackled on a rush for a short gain by members of the Washington Redskins' defense during the first quarter at M & T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on August 13, 2009. UPI/Kevin Dietsch Photo via Newscom
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I can't believe my lying eyes.

The Washington Redskins are three point favorites over the Baltimore Ravens when the two teams meet at FedEx Field Saturday night (7:00 PM EDT, NBC-4, Comcast SportsNet).

I won't take time to do the research, but I'm pretty sure that hasn't happened any other time this decade.

The game brings the return of Jim Zorn. I still feel a good deal of sympathy for Zorn for what he went through here. You can't say he didn't get a fair shot. He shouldn't have had a shot at all.

Zorn was Seattle's first football hero. He was to the Seahawks what Sonny Jurgensen is around here. The "Hawks never saw him as a offensive coordinator candidate, much less a head coach. Jim Mora got that job when Mike Holmgren stepped down. Only Washington's Vinny Cerrato saw Zorn as a coordinator, then coach when he could not convince anyone else to take the job.

Poor Zorn was over-managed and undermined from that point. I don't blame him personally for the doom that followed.

Yet, I cannot picture Zorn as Donovan McNabb's head coach, offensive coordinator, or quarterback coach. What does Zorn teach to McNabb? Play smaller. Stay medium. Ugh.

The Redskins acquired quarterback Richard Bartel from the Jacksonville Jaguars practice squad because Zorn wanted to work with him. John Beck was briefly coached by Zorn, now Baltimore's quarterback coach, before the Shanahans traded for him. The Shanahans see Beck as a potential fit for their offense, thereby making him a threat to Bartel's stay on the roster.

Former Redskins offensive coordinator Al Saunders is the offensive consultant for the Ravens. That means Saunders could have more influence on Ravens playcalling than Zorn. Awkward.

Maybe Zorn has enough pull with the Ravens that Bartel will land there if the Skins cut him.

The NFL is a small world and a round one.

USAPlayers News: Washington Redskins Picked As Three-Point Favorites Over Baltimore Ravens At Home

Who the Heck are the Wide Receivers on this Team?

Written by Greg Trippiedi on .

Aug. 13, 2010 - Landover, Maryland, United States of America - 13 August, 2010: Washington Redskins Wide Receiver ROYDELL WILLIAMS.

Mike Shanahan's mantra in his first offseason with the Redskins could be summed up in a single word: competition.  At some junctures (Albert Haynesworth), this mantra has seemed rather hallow.  Competition with the 48 million dollar man?  Where do you find such players?  Still, in many facets of the roster, competition is more than just empty coach-speak, it's how the Redskins are going to rebuild their offense.

This is most true at the wide receiver position.  Shanahan, and Offspring Coordinator, Kyle, put their X's and O's -- as well as their Y's and Z's -- where their mouths were, putting Joey Galloway along with Santana Moss atop the depth chart at receiver.  Behind them are 2008 second rounders Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas Roydell Williams and AFL star Anthony Armstrong.  This development left most Redskins fans with one question: are they serious?

If a 38 year old receiver who was last relevant in 2007, and a 29-year old receiver who hasn't played a snap since 2007 can be fighting with each other to make it as a starting receiver of the Washington Redskins, how safe would it be to assume that the Redskins aren't planning to keep both of these guys?  Furthermore, the Redskins are giving Bobby Wade, a guy who didn't make the top eight on the depth chart at receiver, a look with the first team offense against the Ravens.  Should we as fans read into that move?

I'm not convinced Wade actually has a legitimate chance to make this team.  Along with Mike Furrey (who might get a similar look in the fourth preseason game), Wade is a potential option for the slot.  He ran some good routes against second teamers with Grossman distributing the ball, so lets see if he makes meaningful plays against a first team defense with McNabb tossing the rock.  Of course, unlike the largely successful careers of Galloway and Williams between 2005 and 2007, Wade has largely struggled to consistently contribute in the NFL, and will probably not make a significant impact on Sunday, confirming coach's suspicions evidenced by the depth chart.

This makes Anthony Armstrong the wild card that could spring major change for the Redskins.  As of today, I'd say that Armstrong is not likely to make the roster.  But I do think that one of the reasons that Armstrong is listed as number two on the depth chart is because Malcolm Kelly's health record is quickly becoming an easy one-liner.  If Kelly is healthy and productive by Week 3 of the preseason, we will likely forget all about Anthony Armstrong as an offensive contributor: Kelly is bigger and smoother in his routes, and neither is an explosive downfield player.  But these next two weeks might be do-or-die for Malcolm Kelly.

If Kelly is deemed to be injured goods for the season, and either goes on IR or is released, Armstrong becomes a serious contender to be the team's no. 3 WR.  He seems to play with a good field presence, and does strike me as a better option than Bobby Wade in the same role.  He can get open, and I think we've seen McNabb's trust for him to be where he's expected to be on a critical "hot" throw.  I can't overstress that.  Armstrong could get exposed in the third preseason game, when the Redskins will throw everything they have at the defense for three quarters, but I think he greatly improved his chances to make a difference this season vs. the Bills.

I also think the loser of the Galloway/Williams camp battle for starting 'X' receiver becomes a bit of a luxury for a team that needs to employ special teamers.  If the top three receivers in the rotation are Moss, Galloway, and Armstrong/Kelly, and there are just two spots left for Roydell Williams, Devin Thomas, and Terence Austin.  Austin is/was drafted as a special teams gunner, and, I think, Devin Thomas has shown to be a much more willing special teamer than most on the roster, even those with no chance of playing offense this season.  I think the team is plenty deep enough to keep an inactive 4th receiver (in this scenario, Roydell Williams), and then choose between the 2008 2nd rounder and the 2010 7th rounder to be the game day fourth receiver (5th on the depth chart, but 4th active receiver), and to be utilized heavily on special teams.

But that wouldn't be a very efficient use of a roster spot.  Which is why it does feel like Roydell Williams is fighting a losing battle, even though he's just a step out of the starting lineup right now.  If he badly out plays Anthony Armstrong, and Malcolm Kelly's knee proves unable to heal, and Bobby Wade doesn't impress, then I think both Galloway and Williams could make the team.  But that's a lot of ifs that need to occur, and none of them would be a welcome development for the Redskins.

There's also a doomsday scenario (from Vinny Cerrato's perspective, at least), where Kelly doesn't prove healthy and Devin Thomas proves to be expendable.  This would occur if Terence Austin were to obviously outplay Thomas on the second team offense the rest of the preseason, and take the 4th receiver job by stranglehold.  In this scenario, Armstrong beats out an ineffective Malcolm Kelly for the third receiver job, and both Kelly and Thomas are released.  Joey Galloway makes enough plays to prove he can still start in this league.  And then, Roydell Williams, Bobby Wade, and Mike Furrey are all in play for the 5th receiver job with some special teams duty (this might be the only outcome where Furrey could make the roster).

Brandon Banks is perhaps one punt return TD in three final preseason games away from forcing the team to keep a 6th receiver for a punt returning specialist.  He's not an offensive player, although the Redskins have been trying him as a direct snap man in a trick-play package.  If you're planning on having him, you might as well find something he can do.  But if Banks wins return duties, he can help the team win much more than any of the bottom three receivers will.

It's very likely that even though Kelly and Thomas have both been disappointments to date, most probable scenarios at wide receiver suggest that at least one almost has to see it through to the season, and it's really difficult to envision a scenario where Thomas is in trouble unless Kelly suddenly gets healthy.  A healthy Kelly might halve the chances of Devin Thomas making the roster, but that would take him from "nearly certain" to "about 50-50."  I think the Redskins willingness to use Joey Galloway on a deep route in the first game (and he was open) suggests he's almost as safe as Santana Moss on this roster (even without the contractual security).  That's tough news for Roydell Williams, who really must hope that no one steps into that 3rd WR job, leaving it wide open for his taking (if he can hold off Thomas).  Still, my gut says that until I see #12 on the field making a difference, Galloway, Williams, and Armstrong will all find roles on this team.  And that means Devin Thomas and Terence Austin are nos. 5 & 6.  But Banks can set this race up so there is no WR no 6.  Which is probably good for Thomas' chances as a receiver this year.  Or bad for his chances of making the roster.

In conclusion, there was light shined on the situation by the first preseason game, but the position is still very much a mess of "if/then" scenarios, and special teamers, and return specialists, and receivers who just were not expected to play NFL football this year, but could be major contributors to the Redskins and fantasy football teams alike.  Regarding these receivers: we can be certain that we don't have the answers.  But at least I'm hopeful that we finally might be asking the right questions.

Lineman Yard Average: Williams, Rinehart Unit's Best in 2009

Written by Greg Trippiedi on .

ASHBURN, VA - JULY 30:  Washington Redskins offensive tackle Mike Williams (#71) watches drills from the sideline on opening day of training camp July 30, 2009 in Ashburn, Virginia.  (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

If you're an avid Hog Heaven reader during the season, you might remember last year when I undertook a project known as "Lineman Yards", where I used game tape to assign value to offensive lineman on their run blocking abilities.  The team had pretty good numbers through the six games I was able to break down before week-to-week life got in the way, but two things happened at the point where I halted the game tape reviews: Jim Zorn gave up playcalling duties, and the Redskins schedule got much harder.

So, naturally, I couldn't draw any meaningful conclusions from just six games of data.  At the time, I had 127 runs to look at.  After chewing up a weekend on a massive game tape review bender, I now have 298.  Not all games are included, but my Lineman Yard Average metric now has enough of a sample to draw a meaningful conclusion.

Remember, that this is only a measure of blocking on all running plays.  Screen plays were marked in the analysis, but omitted as not to throw off the totals.  Pass protection was noted -- on the rare occasion that it existed -- but is not accounted for in lineman yards.

Here are some of the most meaningful conclusions from a season's worth of work:

  • The Redskins' best run blocking lineman was Mike Williams.  Yes, that Mike Williams.  Williams averaged 4.18 lineman yards per run vs. a league average of 4.0 and a team average of 3.9.  Williams was also, by far, the most consistent Redskin in run blocking, despite appearing in my scoresheet 4 times at RT and 4 times at RG.  I ran a game-by-game standard deviation score, with the expected standard deviation at 1.5 yards.  The standard deviation of Mike Williams' run blocking games was under a yard, at 0.98.
  • Only one lineman had a higher LYA score AND a lower standard deviation than Williams: Chris Samuels (4.32, 0.92, respectively).  However, all of Samuels' runs were from the first four weeks of the season, including the Rams, Lions, and Bucs.  Williams played against significantly better competition.  His sample was more than twice as large as Samuels.
  • Chad Rinehart scored a 4.23 in 48 rushing plays (half of which in the Denver game), but was less consistent than Williams, with a 1.5 yard standard deviation.  Rinehart had the best single game score of any lineman, a 6.75 in six runs against Detroit.  Those six runs also drove up Rinehart's average considerably.  He scored a combined, very respectable 3.82 in three other games.
  • Of the 3 Redskins lineman who started 16 games, Stephon Heyer had the best score, a 3.83.  He also had the highest standard deviation of any lineman, a 1.7.  Heyer was the only Redskins starting lineman who was actually better in the first six games of the season than in the final ten.  Casey Rabach, Derrick Dockery, Mike Williams, and even Fred Davis did better after Zorn gave up playcalling duties.  Heyer had more games than any other lineman, 6, with an line yard average of 4.0 or better.  Heyer had stinkers against Dallas in Week 16, and New York in Week 1.  His third worst game, according to LYA, came in the team's best game run blocking, vs. Denver.  Heyer had a 2.58 in that game.
  • Derrick Dockery and Casey Rabach aren't great run blockers, and don't particularly show well game to game.  Overall, I'd argue that Rabach does a better job than Dockery does, but perhaps the most amazing thing that lineman yards did in 2009 was show the massive difference between Rabach's numbers against NFC East opponents New York and Dallas, and against everyone else.  Rabach had 4.20 lineman yards this year in the 10 charted games against non-Cowboys/Giants competition.  That would make him the best run-blocking lineman on the team.  In the 4 games against the Cowboys and the Giants, he somehow managed a get-the-hell-off-my team figure of 1.87.  The 0-4 record (1-7 in the Zorn era) in the last four seasons starts with Casey Rabach's failure to handle the line of scrimmage.  The record against other teams in that span is 11-13, which is in line with the strong run-blocking but poor pass blocking featured by Rabach on a week-to-week basis.
  • Dockery did not show any sort of an opponent split, but instead, had his best games in the month of November.  By December, Dockery had declined back to levels around where he started the season.  For three of four months, Dockery was a 3.0 yard guy, which would have been the worst on the line by far (Levi Jones excluded).  In the three consecutive games against the Falcons, Broncos, and Cowboys, Dockery was nearly a yard and a half better.
  • Levi Jones wasn't very good.  He and Randy Thomas (2 games) were equally ineffective run blockers, but Jones in particular was really overmatched against better pass rushers.  He did help to stabilize the line by providing something that looked like an NFL performance at a premium position (Dockery's production took off as soon as Jones was inserted), but despite being the most apt left tackle on the 2009 Redskins, he's no longer a left tackle in the NFL.  The nicest thing I can say: that he was a better LT than Jason Campbell's current blindside protector with the Raiders, Mario Henderson.
  • Will Montgomery had some games that LYA really liked.  He had a sparkling 5.36 against the Chiefs, and a fairly impressive 4.69 against the Eagles the next week.  Subjectively, I thought he was embarassing, and the final five runs of the second Cowboys game featured Montgomery doing some of the worst blocking related activities ever recorded by a television camera.  Using his back as a weapon, and such.  He and Rabach managed to provide the worst pass protection of any C and RG tandem, I've ever encountered.
  • Mike Sellers had a 5.17 YLA in the first six games of the season.  He had a 2.78 YLA in the final ten games.  Here, in my opinion is the difference: YLA is biased towards fullbacks.  It's really easy to chart a fullback at the point of attack if the hole is opened wide by the lineman first.  But if the blocking up front struggles, the play is usually ending by the time the fullback gets to the hole. This could be a bias in my method, that favors all lead blockers.  Both changes that happened after the seasons' sixth week, the playcalling, and Portis' season ending concussion, took the Redskins out of the I-formation, and into a lot more singleback sets.  Sellers, many times, played the tight end in these sets, with Cooley out.  He was a much worse blocker there than as a fullback, plus didn't have the advantage of being a lead blocker in LYA.  Also: A 35 year old Sellers probably got worse as the season went on.  Just not that pronounced.
  • I thought Fred Davis did a really good job at run blocking, frequently handling opposing defensive ends and was a big difference in the improvement in the rushing attack after the bye week.  Davis can also handle defensive ends one on one in pass protection, which could be a very important skill with Chris Cooley coming back healthy.  LYA, though, thinks he had just two above average games: Week 1 vs. New York and Justin Tuck (3 plays), and Week 13 vs. the Saints and Charles Grant (7 plays).  Obviously, Tuck is a much tougher assignment than Grant.  Beyond that, he didn't score very well, finishing with a 3.25 score -- though I feel that the tough assignments are primarily responsible for the discrepancy.  Anyone that wins the one v one battle with DeMarcus Ware in both blocking and receiving is okay in my book.
  • Chris Cooley was not as good.  He had one good blocking game (vs. Bucs), but being ragdolled against the Lions, that calls for more effort.  Cooley had a good blocking season in 2008, though, so hopefully, this is just a five game issue that could have corrected if he didn't get injured.
  • Todd Yoder was an awful blocker, with the exception of a single game against the Raiders, where he might have been the most dominant force anywhere on the field.  Yoder played that game at fullback in place of an injured Mike Sellers.  Line yard bias aside, Yoder did his best work in that game on the goal line, where he was typically a horrendous blocker.  Yoder led both Quinton Ganther TD runs in the fourth quarter, and on the second, he basically opened a hole to the end zone in a pile by himself.
  • Lorenzo Alexander continued to be a poor offensive player.  He's such a talented defensive player, that he can remain one of the most versatile players in the league without ever appearing in an offensive huddle again.
  • Devin Thomas was used in the second half of the season as an in-line blocker at times, usually with excellent success.  He'd win most blocking battles with linebackers, if you can get him to line up in the right place.  He's not a heady blocker downfield, as Malcolm Kelly is much smarter and understands blocking angles a lot better downfield.  But Thomas is a very comfortable player in the box, which surprised me.
So what does this all mean?  Well, it means that the Redskins are undergoing a downgrade in run blocking with Mike Williams missing the year with blood clots.  Artis Hicks has been a very poor pass blocker in the past.  Mike Williams is a poor pass blocker as well, so I figured that with Hicks stepping in for Williams would represent an upgrade in run blocking.  This is not so much the case though, as I can now see why the Redskins gave Williams a contract that exceeded the value of Hicks' by more than a million dollars per season: even if we assume that Hicks can be a league average run blocker in this scheme, Williams is between a third and half a yard more valuable per play.  The good news is that the Redskins can always play Chad Rinehart, who is a good pass protector and a very good run blocker as a RG.  Rinehart's biggest weakness is as a screen blocker; he's just pathetic in open space trying to find someone to block when it's not defined pre-snap.  That could be a function of inexperience, or a legitimate player flaw.

It means it's tough to pick the Redskins to beat the Cowboys if Jay Ratliff is healthy for the game and Casey Rabach starts it.  No doubt that Mike Shanahan would give him more help than Jim Zorn did, but playing the Cowboys with Rabach is more or less the equivalent of playing a game with a guy in the Redskin backfield.  Rabach was not the Redskins biggest weakness last year.  Left tackle was a bigger weakness the final twelve games, and right tackle was a bigger weakness when Heyer was at left tackle, and right guard was a freaking revolving door (though, of mostly competent players).  But against the Redskins' two biggest rivals, and apologies to the Eagles, Rabach would have been more valuable if left at home.

Other players on the line were acceptable against the Cowboys.  The Redskins averaged three and two LYPC respectively in those games, but got 4.0+ LY performances from Rinehart and Dockery in Week 11, and from Levi Jones in Week 16, and also got 3.5 LY performances from Mike Sellers and Stephon Heyer in Week 11 and Mike Williams in Week 16.  So even though the Cowboys more or less controlled the Redskins running game last year, they got at least one out of two respectable blocking performances from every position except C and TE.

The Redskins were done in by the blocking of their right side against the Giants in Week 1, but the blocking on the left side was pretty good.  Mike Williams had a very good game against the Giants in the Monday Night Massacre, Will Robinson had the second best figure with a below average 3.3.  I thought the Redskins offensive line played very well against the Eagles all year, with the exception of one poor block by Will Montgomery that lead to a batted ball pick six.  I thought if the skill position players had shown up with any intent of playing to win the game, the Redskins would have headed into the bye week salvaging a 3-4 record.  The Eagles were not good in that game, but the Redskins wasted a good OL performance by rushing for 3.26 yards per carry and committing two turnovers (admittedly one of which was on the OL), because of lazy blocking by the receivers and TEs for Clinton Portis, and lazy route running for Jason Campbell.

Appendix

A) The best Redskin rushing games in 2009 were:

  1. vs Broncos (4.64)
  2. vs Rams (4.21)
  3. vs Bucs (4.16)
  4. vs Eagles (3.95)
  5. vs Saints (3.83)
  6. at Raiders (3.76)
  7. at Panthers (3.65)
  8. vs Chiefs (3.56)
  9. at Lions (3.51)
This was a much better blocking team at home than on the road.  Jason Campbell, however, was a much better passer on the road than at home, which supports my opinion that Campbell struggled primarily due to cumulative pressure on him (i.e. not trusting his OL to block), than direct pressure, i.e. in his face when he throws.
B) Redskins OL LYA totals, for 2009 season (minimum 10 charted runs) [primary 5 starters in boldface]:
  1. Chris Samuels 4.32
  2. Chad Rinehart 4.23
  3. Mike Williams 4.18
  4. Mike Sellers 3.96
  5. Will Montgomery 3.84
  6. Stephon Heyer 3.83
  7. Todd Yoder 3.81
  8. Casey Rabach 3.70
  9. Derrick Dockery 3.57
  10. Levi Jones 3.35
  11. Chris Cooley 3.35
  12. Fred Davis 3.25
Editors note: The LYA metric is an adapted variation of Adjusted Line Yards at Football Outsiders, and is calculated using similar baselines.  Credit to be given where it is due: this work would be impossible without prior research done by those much smarter than myself.

Trent Williams is The Top Question For Redskins vs Bills

Written by Anthony Brown on .

LANDOVER, MD - DECEMBER 02:  Chris Cooley #47 of the Washington Redskins can not come up with a reception against Josh Stamer #57 of the Buffalo Bills during their game on December 2, 2007 at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

[picapp]

Finally football!

The Washington Redskins face off against the Buffalo Bills at 7:30 PM Friday at FedEx Field. Don't get your jock in a knot, people. It's just a preseason game. The best part of this game is that we get to see the team colors in action. Better than baseball, but that's about it.

For players on the edge or with something to prove, it's when you make your case. For coaches, it's time to evaluate players who are on the edge or with something to prove. Preseason games are like eavesdropping on employee performance reviews.

For coaches, the preseason is not so much about the contest than it is about cutting up lots of game film to see individual players in their personal match-ups against the man opposite them. Joe Gibbs revealed that the coaches deliberately isolated players just to see how they stood up to pressure at game speed. He didn't scheme to exploit the other team's weaknesses or to build on Redskins strengths. He just wanted to see how the guys played.

They used to call these exhibition games, with the emphasis on exhibition. If Roger Goodell has his way, two of these exhibitions convert to "regular." I hope so. Danny Snyder charges $40 just to park. Exhibition games are the worst value in sports.

If you can't get tickets for the regular games, preseason can be a great one-time treat for a game experience. You just have to know what to watch for. Keep your eye on these five:

1. Trent Williams. Does this kid really have the stuff to replace Chris Samuels? That's not fair. Samuels is irreplaceable. Williams follows him at left tackle. Samuels elevated the play of the entire offensive line. That's too much to ask of a rookie. That's Derrick Dockery's and Casey Rabach's job now.

Right tackle Jammal Brown will miss the game due to injury. Web site Profootballfocus.com says Brown is overrated as a tackle--says it right there in the article that ranked the Skins O-line 29th in the NFL. (The good news: they say the Bills are worse.) I hope the Shanahans know more about the offensive lines than some web site.

The Bills released (Did Not Report) OLB Aaron Schobel Sunday in a contract dispute. So Williams must deal with Reggie Tobor and Aaron Mabin at linebaker and Dwan Edwards at defensive end. Like Washington, Buffalo is converting from the 4-3 to the 3-4. Those guys will be a little lost in the scheme, which works to Williams' advantage.

Williams has to get acclimated and quickly, so I hope the Redskins play him for at least a half. Williams wears jersey No. 72. Um, that's Dexter Manley's number, kid. Don't dishonor it.

2. Can the Redskins cover? The question applies to linebackers as well as the secondary. Since we are moving to the 3-4 alignment, it applies more to the linebackers. 'cause it's a long, long season if they can't.

One of the justifications for the 3-4 is the potential to bring pressure from anywhere. That's no big deal for the Redskins. Gregg Williams did that with the 4-3. This move is about forcing turnovers. For that to work, the outside linebackers have to cover--well.

Now aren't you glad that Greg Blache made Brian Orakpo play linebacker last year?

The Bills are the perfect first outing for the Redskins in this scheme because...well, they aren't a very good passing team. Lee Evans is a top tier receiver. There's no question about him starting, so you won't see much of him this Friday. T.O is off the roster. If the linebackers and defensive backs can't cover these guys....

3. Tick, Tick, Tick. There are 40 seconds between plays in pro football. Can a veteran Redskins team break huddle with 15 seconds left on the countdown clock? Hey, don't leave the page now. This is an important point about coaching.

I've observed that better organized teams break huddle with 15 seconds left on the countdown clock. Time enough to look over the defense, realign blocking schemes, audible to a new play, adjust. Too often under Jim Zorn and Joe Gibbs, the Skins were slow getting the play from the coaches booth to the sideline to the quarterback. Washington flirted with delay of game penalties too many times for comfort.

Breaking huddle with 10 to 15 seconds to go says the coaches are prepared for contingencies and are decisive. I'm looking for a better showing from the Shanahans.

Win or lose, crisp play in preseason means crisp play when games are real. Same goes for sloppy play. Exhibition games are no excuse for sloppy play.

4. How bad is Rex Grossman? When we last paid attention to Grossman, he was flaming out in Chicago, so much so that Bears fans were calling him "Wrecks." He's here for the same reason Todd Collins was here (and is now gone), familiarity with the new offense. Collins did well when pressed into action in 2007, not because he was better than Jason Campbell or Mark Brunell. He just knew the playbook better. Grossman knows Kyle Shanahan's playbook. It should show when he plays.

Donovan McNabb will play about 15-18 snaps, then it's Grossman and John Beck from then on. McNabb could miss two games this season, so I need Rex to make me comfortable now.

5. Can somebody please get open? Anybody? Please? Calling Devin Thomas. Calling Devin Thomas. From Spartan alum to Spartan player: step it up, kid. You are making Michigan State look bad. Does Joey Galloway really have more in the tank than you?

Thomas and Malcolm Kelly were two of the first three players the Skins drafted in 2008. They feel like first rounders to us. But they are not. They are second rounders...who are under-performing even that level (see Jackson, DeSean). Can the receiving corps get open against the Bills secondary? Anybody? Please?

Preseason games are when the team shows its fans whether they can finish the year over or under eight games. Give us a reason, Redskins, give us any small amount of hope to take the over.

Play. Score. Win.

Point-After: This post is a Haynesworth-free Zone.