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Ex-Redskin of the Week: Brandon Lloyd, WR, Denver Broncos

Brandon Lloyd? BLloyd? The guy who left us wondering what ever happened to Rod Gardner? Yes, that Brandon Lloyd.

Without fanfare, Lloyd emerged as the NFL's No. 2 wide receiver after four games with 454 yards on 25 receptions. Lloyd is just a shade behind the Colts' Reggie Wayne with 456 yards. Wayne needed 33 receptions to eclipse Lloyd who is averaging 18.2 yards-per-catch and 113.5 yards per game to become Denver's leading receiver. Lloyd caught for 117 yards for all of 2009.

As you might expect, Denver's Kyle Orton is the league's leading quarterback with 1,419 yards already. Lloyd worked with aging Mark Brunell and raw Jason Campbell during his stay in Washington, called "the lost years" by both Lloyd and Skins fans.

We don't want to begrudge Lloyd his success. Things have a way of leveling out, especially when speaking of Brandon Lloyd. Denver faces the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday.

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Ex-Redskin of the Weak: Todd Collins, QB, Chicago Bears

I didn't know that Todd Collins was still in football. After Sunday night, Collins must be wondering why he is still in football.

Collins stepped in for Chicago Bears starting quarterback Jay Cutler in the second half of the Sunday Night Football game between the Bears and the New York Giants. Cutler would leave the game with a concussion after the Giants sacked him nine times. Collins would be knocked from the game, too, in the fourth quarter. He completed four of 11 passes for 36 yards and an interception.

The Black and Blue division meets east coast smashmouth. For one night, smashmouth won.

The Redskins visit Chicago October 24 and visit the Giants December 5.

 

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It turns out that the best defense against Michael Vick is to knock him out of the game. Vick left in the first quarter of the Washington Redskins-Philadelphia Eagles contest after being crunched by CB DeAngelo Hall and Kareem Moore.

Vick's injury came after a 23-yard scamper to the Redskins one-yard line. It was vintage Vick. His elusiveness still strikes fear whenever he plays. But this time, a holding call wiped out a game changing play. The penalty reset the Eagles down and distance to third down-16 yards on Washington's 34 with the birds down by 14.

The Eagles could do no better than a David Akers field goal. It was not enough to change the course of the game.

 

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Worse was the first-quarter loss of Vick. He was diagnosed with a chest and rib injury. A X-ray was negative, but he is scheduled for a MRI on Monday. He looked to me to have injured his collar bone. If that's the case, Vick will be out for some time.

Kevin Kolb replaced Vick and he played like a guy shaking off rust. He mistimed his throws. His aim was awry. His receivers looked lost.

The technical term is "off." Used in a sentence: the passing game is....

It was a nice turn for the Redskins who a week ago spotted the Rams 14 points, then failed to over-come it.

I compliment the Eagles fans who offered a standing ovation to Donovan McNabb at the introduction. Nice touch, Iggles fans. Rare, but appreciated.

McNabb's Philadelphia reception was all the hype in the lead up to the game. Eagles fans attending the 1999 NFL Draft famously booed McNabb's selection. They wanted Ricky Williams. (Fans, don't try the NFL Draft at home. Leave it to the professionals.)

News that the Eagles traded McNabb to the Redskins unleashed an unseemly celebration at the WIP studio in Philadelphia, along with disparaging comments about McNabb and the Redskins.

 

It might be fun to listen to the fans on Monday's WIP call-in show. Through the magic of the Internet, you can listen to the audio stream here.

For Donovan McNabb, you can't go home again. No one in Philly will agree with him that the Eagles made a mistake by trading him. Andy Reid has taken responsibility. Fans will point to players and play-calling. They will lament the loss of the quarterback whose skills most nearly match McNabb's. They will wonder if Vick is as injury-prone as McNabb supposedly is and if his character is as high as McNabb's definitely is. They will say everything but "wish he were here."

Living well is the best revenge.

Point After: What happened to the gold pants?

 

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The Washington Redskins re-signed wide receiver Brandon Banks to the roster this afternoon. The team released running back Keiland Williams to make room.

Mike Shanahan continues to tinker with the roster. It's interesting that he added a wide receiver, the shakiest group on offense. Banks, 5-7 and 150 pounds, caught eight passes for 129 yards during preseason. He averaged 15.4 yards per punt return.

Williams appeared in three games this season and seemed to be a receiving option out of the backfield. He caught six passes for 29 yards.

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Matt Moseley, the NFC East blogger for ESPN.com has a hunch that Michael Vick will struggle against the Washington Redskins this Sunday. Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles fans might have a hard time buying that after watching the Skins stumble against Sam Bradford and the Rams last Sunday.

Moseley says the Redskins will force Vick to scramble. That sounds like a bad idea to me. Vick is at his most dangerous when he's running. Here's how Moseley described in his Final Word post Washington's approach to defending Vick:

"I think [Jim Haslett] will have a defensive back spying on Vick at all times. He has told his players to get their hands up earlier than usual in an attempt to disrupt Vick's rhythm. The Eagles' quarterback looked brilliant against the Lions and Jaguars, but those teams did a poor job containing him. The Redskins will try to lure Vick into throwing the ball across his body. Cornerback DeAngelo Hall played with Vick for several years, so he knows a lot of his tendencies. Look for outside linebacker Brian Orakpo to play a different style in this game. He can't race up the field. Instead, he'll hold the edge and try to force Vick the other direction."

The Redskins faced Vick only once, in December 2006. The Atlanta Falcons snapped a four game losing streak by beating the reeling Redskins 24-14 at FedEx Field. The Redskins won the prior meeting against Atlanta 33-31 in the 2003 season. Doug Johnson started at quarterback for injured Vick. (T.J. Duckett made a particularly strong impression on the Redskins front office in that game. But, I digress.) Matt Ryan was Atlanta's quarterback when the teams met in 2009, a 31-17 win for Atlanta.

Redskins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett was head coach of Falcons rival the New Orleans Saints for six seasons. He is very familiar with Vick. Haslett is 4-6 against Atlanta when Vick was the starter for Atlanta.

Donovan McNabb is familiar with Vick. McNabb tried to recruit Vick to Syracuse out of high school and supported, perhaps lobbied, adding Vick to the Eagles roster. The Eagles traded McNabb to Washington when they figured they were set at quarterback with Kevin Kolb and Vick. More proof that no good deed goes unpunished.

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The Washington Redskins dropped to 22nd place on the Bloguin NFL Power Poll following their 30-16 loss to the St. Louis Rams. The Skins were ranked 15th last week.

Washington's loss to St. Louis, the second in their last three games with the Rams, was unsettling if only because of defensive breakdowns. Defense has been a Redskins strength. The players are still adapting to Jim Haslett's schemes as shown by individual breakdowns. The Rams two touchdown runs were the result of whiffs by safety Kareem Moore who played his first game of the season following an injury.

Losing to the Rams was unsettling to fans, a few of whom started something of a death watch.

In an ironic twist, Jim Haslett figured in both of the most recent losses to the Rams. He was named interim head coach of the then winless Rams the lead-up to St. Louis' visit to FedEx Field in 2008. The Redskins were on a four game win streak in Jim Zorn's first year as head coach. The Rams were on an eight game losing streak extending to the 2007 season.

Redskins Hog Heaven is a member of the Bloguin sports network.

I had an opportunity to pick through the game between the Eagles and Jaguars last week.  Both teams are future opponents of the Redskins this season, though the Jaguars game isn't until Christmas.  Right now, I'll focus just on the Eagles, and what we learned from that game last week.

The Eagles are a team that's struggling with the balance on their offensive line.  Their starting C and RG last year were Jamaal Jackson (best player on the unit), and RG Stacey Andrews.  Jackson is out for the balance of this season, and Andrews was traded to the Bills after losing his starting job.  Replacing them: Nick Cole at RG and third year man Mike McGlynn at Center.  The Eagles benefit from having great depth on the line, but playing two largely inexperienced players there has caused them to have to reverse their protections.

To do this, the Eagles moved their offensive strength from the right to the left.  They set the strength of their protections to the offensive left, which means that the centerpiece of the protection unit is now the more experienced LG Todd Herremans instead of Cole.  This doesn't change the role of either tackle, who have been very durable for them.  RT Winston Justice is the best player on the line, while LT Jason Peters probably hasn't justified a first round pick in a trade, though in today's market, I doubt a 1st rounder could net a player of similar quality.

Essentially, the Eagles are a two tight end offense, because of the unique skills of WR Jason Avant.  Avant plays a wing back type position in a lot of sets (the team will also go empty and use RB LeSean McCoy in similar positioning).  Avant blocks like a fullback, and is actually useful in pass protection where he can full on block a guy and still release into the route once QB Michael Vick is at the top of his drop.  He's actually a better blocker than the team's starting TE, Brent Celek.

I think the Redskins have a major advantage in that their defensive strength takes away the offensive strength of the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Redskins have done a good job preventing the big play this year, specifically, big plays made worse after the catch.  They've also done a good job of getting quick pressure on the quarterback.  The former is how the Eagles have won their last two games, and the latter is how those defenses have stopped drives against them.  If the Eagles are going to pick on the Redskins defense, they'll have to be patient and run plays in the defensive void between the linebackers and the safeties.  Michael Vick has improved in many ways since we last saw him, but he struggled a lot with his accuracy to stationary targets and receivers going over the middle in that game.  If he misses on passes thrown to the void in the Redskins defense, it's hard to see how the Eagles are going to be able to consistently move the ball.

The one matchup issue that scares me is RB LeSean McCoy, who looks to be a completely different player with Michael Vick as his quarterback.  With the need for contain defenders for Vick, McCoy is getting more open field than ever before, and he's really making defenses pay.  He's averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and leads the league in rushing TDs, matching his total from last year in just three games.  The Redskins don't really have a way that they can plan on stopping McCoy (Landry is on double duty this week, I suppose), so perhaps their best bet is to hope that Andy Reid doesn't stick with the run with the hope of a big play passing game in his arsenal.  I like our chances.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defensive line may be the strength of their entire team: they are strong both on the interior and on the outsides.  Rookie first rounder Brandon Graham is already in the defensive rotation, though he's likely their third or fourth best option at that position right now after Trent Cole, Juqua Parker, and Darryl Tapp.

There are big plays to be had against Asante Samuel. Teams on the Eagles schedule to this point haven't gone after him, but he's playing as nosy as I've ever seen him right now, and while the Eagles mix their coverages well, he's not always getting safety help behind him.  On the alternative, the Eagles are fantastic at sniffing out screens, with every one of their front seven members aware of these possibilities on every play.  The Redskins don't run very many screens so this may not be an issue.

I believe SLB Akeem Jordan is the weakness in the front seven, and that CB Ellis Hobbs is the weakness in the secondary for the Eagles.  FS Nate Allen, who the Eagles took with the Donovan McNabb pick, is still a rookie, but has been fantastic in his first month as a professional football player.  I'd like to see the Redskins test him early and often because if he gets to attack, the Philadelphia secondary is going to win it's matchups with the Redskins offense.

For the Redskins, LaRon Landry is going to have to have a big game in the box: he's responsible for both Vick and McCoy in the rushing attack, and when they throw, he'll get help from Rocky McIntosh and London Fletcher, who will also be responsible for Celek.  That numbers game doesn't favor the Redskins (too many weapons), but in terms of talent, I think it does.  Our defenders are better than their comprable offensive players.

Obviously, DeAngelo Hall is going to need to step up on the outside, because Carlos Rogers can't cover both Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson, and those are the guys who will really help you.  Kareem Moore is going to have a better game than he did last week in the deep field, and the Redskins will need him.  Phillip Buchanon is also going to have a major role in this game when Carlos Rogers is covering Avant in the slot.  Buchanon will likely be the target of the passing game for the Eagles.  He's been pretty good this year, a few plays in the Texans game as the exception.

I think, match-up wise, the Redskins are in a good place in this game.  They will need to raise their level of play as a team to stay in this one, but the things that teams can exploit against the Redskins defense are not the strength of the Philadelphia offense.  They can try to exploit our weaknessess by playing away from their strengths, but I think that benefits us in the long run.  Obviously, this is going to be a close game, and in the two minute situations, only one team has Donovan McNabb at quarterback.

This time, it's not the Eagles.

I'm going to begin this analysis by listing a few things that I believe are right with this defense.

They get strong pressure on the quarterback. This is something the Redskins were able to do last year and backs my belief that Albert Haynesworth didn't have a particularly meaningful effect on the increased pass rush.  Brian Orakpo is having an even better season than last year.  Andre Carter and Adam Carriker have both been effective players in the pass rushing schemes.  Lorenzo Alexander is still a beast.  Vonnie Holliday can still get after the passer (not so much, however, those athletic running backs).  The inside linebackers are getting more pressure on quarterbacks than they ever did last year.  We sometimes blitz corners, although we played it pretty straight up against the Rams.

Our run defense is above average. It's not a great unit and our short yardage defense leaves a lot to be desired after it was best-in-the-NFL last year.  But the two longest runs against our defense this year both involved straight whiffs (not even what you'd call "broken") on tackles by FS Kareem Moore.  Obviously that's a personnel issue, and Reed Doughty is an excellent tackler who has issues versus the pass.  LaRon Landry is a major contributor in the run fits.  The corners, for the most part, are providing good run support.  Our linebackers almost never over-pursue their gaps; either you get a body on them or they finish the play.  All of that is how you make up for a defensive line that isn't always up to the task of plugging gaps in the offensive line.

They are strong situationally. I really like our defense from a game theory perspective.  We like to make offense respond to our fronts in downs and distances that wouldn't be considered "normal" by running plays they would normally not consider to convert, because we'll usually trade first down yardage to force them to execute as a team.  The 1-5-5 front is an example of this: teams know they can beat it by running, but you've spent the whole week working on passing to beat our defense, and now you are faced with a playcalling dilemma.  I think these situational calls will benefit us as the year progresses.

We need turnovers to make the defense work, but we're at least getting those turnovers. The inherent problem with the structure of the defense is the emphasis on both patience and pressure.  We're going to force more mistakes than average because our concepts are based around confusion.  None of our three opponents this year have had trouble moving the chains.  Dominant defenses force three and outs when were not forcing turnovers, and the Redskins are in the bottom half of the league in forcing punts.  While the turnovers haven't come cascading down (1, 1, then 2 in 3 games), the Redskins have avoided the dry spells in the last two years, which is an improvement.  So far, the Redskins have benefitted from three missed field goals, which make it seem like there have been more turnovers than their acutally have been.  We can't count on opponents continuing to miss a field goal a game, but the Redskins have certainly helped themselves: Kareem Moore and Carlos Rogers already have INTs, and they've done it against sound competition.

Strength inside the 10 yard line. Teams have been largely unsuccessful at scoring on the Redskins once they drive all the way down the field.  Teams are so reliant on those holes in the zones, that when they aren't there in the red zone, offensive efficiency goes way down.  The ability to get 3 yards running where Ma'ake Kemoeatu should be isn't very useful on 2nd and goal from the 7 yard line.

Of course, there's a number of problems with the defense as it stands.  The pass defense benefitted from NOT having to face a top five passing offense this week (no such luck next week), but still exhibits all the problems it did in the past weeks.  The coverage units have been very much sub-par.  The Redskins prefer cover three, and opponents know that.  The Redskins disguise their pressures well, but their coverages behind it are pretty well defined.  In the first two weeks, the Redskins were almost exclusively a zone coverage team.  This week, we ran a lot of man, both with safety help and without it.

We're simply a better man coverage team than a zone coverage team right now, but when you play the zone coverages, you're trying to build towards a defensive future where you aren't so reliant on individual cover guys that you may or may not have to get the job done for you.  Right now, there's a crazy amount of holes in our zone coverages.  Last year, that was the case and we did absolutely nothing to improve over the year: we admonished our athletes for making mistakes.  This year, we are clearly more patient with the zone coverage, and you know what?  The results have pretty much mirrored last year with no noticible improvement outside of the fact that Landry is no longer in the middle of the deep field handing out touchdowns.

Our zone coverages are very, very soft.  Soft zone coverage can be beneficial in that it requires the offensive unit to really execute under duress, but our coverages fall more into the "people are running over the middle wide open" category.  That's not intentionally soft, it's just not good enough.  Yet.  More man coverage could be a short term solution to the problem, but our coaching staff needs to decide whether or not our adjustments should be geared to the short term or long term.  If they choose short term, then I will be more critical of the coverage units (lack of) progression than I would otherwise be if they stick with zone and try to improve.

Third/Fourth Down Defense

The Rams faced the following third downs during this game: 3rd & 7, 3rd & 2, 3rd & 6, 3rd & 10, 3rd & 6, 3rd & 2, and 3rd & 3 in the first half, then 3rd & 10, 3rd & 7, 3rd & 4, 3rd & 1, 3rd & 6, 3rd & 3, 3rd & 10, and 3rd & 20 in the second half.  That's an average of 5.4 yards to convert in the first half and 7.6 yards to convert in the second half.  In the first half, the Rams largely were unable to sustain their drives.  In the second half, they had no issue sustaining them, converting 50% of the time on third down and going 1 for 1 on fourth down in both halves.

In the first half, the Redskins struggled some in first and second down play, but performed adequately on third downs.  The Rams won a couple of throws against our corners on third, but for nothing after the catch.  By the second half, the Rams started to actually beat our schemes to extend drives on long distances.  If you were to be charitable and throw out the 3rd and 20 pass that Bradford converted against Hall on the grounds of the game already being over, the numbers look pretty similar, but 1) that was essentially the game ender, according to win probability, and 2) there were no outliers in the first half to also toss out.

The common theme in the second half conversions were uncontested throws short of the sticks where the Redskins uncharacteristically failed to close and tackle to prevent the first down.  On the event that they would have made those tackles, the Rams proved they could get a yard on fourth down anyway, so the Redskins might not have been able to get off the field even if they had made those tackles.  Such a reason is why short yardage defense could be our major issue: teams are realizing that fourth and short is a bad situation to bring out the kicking unit, and so defenses now have to play as four down defenses in more than just end of game siuations.  The Redskins have had a problem as a four down defense: analysts generally don't split their third and fourth down stats, but the Redskins have been simply horrendous as a fourth down defense this year, with no stops in five attempts over four games.

Is there a problem with being blitz happy?

Generally speaking, yes.  In 2008, Greg Blache was blitz-happy to the point of a defensive deficiency.  Specifically speaking, the Jim Haslett Redskins are being more judicious with their pressure schemes this year than they are given credit for, and they've been highly effective schemes (at least, independant of the coverage being played behind them).  When they blitz, they are getting to the quarterback quicker than when they rush four.  That's something that wasn't true in the past.  When they rush four, they are still making a lot of plays, but quarterbacks have a little more time to find the holes in the zones.  For the first time since 2007, the Redskins clearly have blitzing personel at linebacker and in the secondary, so you might as well use it.

This was not a big blitzing game for the Redskins.  In fact, I'm not sure that Carlos Rogers, Kareem Moore, Phillip Buchanon, or DeAngelo Hall ever came on a blitz, which is a bit disappointing.  Landry was still pretty effective, and Carriker really benefited from the one on ones he got out of the pressure schemes.  The Redskins have had great success with simple stunts out of four man rush schemes, as we're now the teams who are toying with offensive lines rather than getting toyed with.  Perhaps amazingly, this hasn't translated to an overall better defense than last year, even though there as many guys in coverage, and more free runners on the quarterback.  For all the differences in philosophy, as well as significant personnel changes, the strengths and weaknesses of this defensive unit have remained consistent with those in 2009.  We've just traded some per-play efficiency for opportunistic defenisive ability, at least based on evidence from September.

How the Rams were able to adjust in the second half

What seems to have stuck out in the mind of many fans is that the Rams found more success AFTER Steven Jackson left the game with an injury.  Jackson wasn't particularly effective in this game: his 42 yard TD run was no different in terms of value than Kenneth Darby's 12 yard TD run.  Both made Kareem Moore miss in the open field and took it in for points.  Darby had 13 other carries for 37 yards (3.1 YPC).  Jackson had 9 other carries for 16 yards (1.7 YPC).  So you can see how losing Jackson might not have meant so much for the Rams, at least with regard to beating the Redskins.  The teams had played to a virtual draw until the point at which Jackson was injured.

I charted the Redskins with 7 hits or pressures on Bradford in the first half, but just one in the second half.  Was the difference play selection?  The Rams threw 23 of 36 plays in the first half, almost two thirds.  In the third quarter (to eliminate a run heavy fourth quarter designed to preserve a lead), the Rams threw 14 of 23 plays.  That's not a significant difference.  I think the Rams made a bunch of small adjustments that nullified the Redskins' pressure schemes in the second half.  Sam Bradford made quicker reads, if not more accurate throws (his accuracy was spotty most of the day).  He beat a pair of blitzes on the first drive of the second half where the Redskins got pressure to come free, but they also left a hot receiver with a clean release off the line.  The Rams were running smoke and other WR screen varients all day, but the plays were executed much better in the second half.

I think the biggest difference is that in the first half, the Rams were running just to run.  In the second half, they were running very effectively, really moving our defensive linemen off the ball (Haynesworth, Holliday, Kemoeatu, Golston in particular -- Daniels can anchor still, but all NFL RBs can make him miss if he doesn't have help).  On the first two drives of the second half, the Rams only had one successful run, the Darby TD.  6 carries into the second half, I think we wore down and got winded.

The other thing: Carlos Rogers was not targeted in the second half.  He had a good game.  They were able to convert a pair of first downs against him, but he made two nice pass breakups (one killed a drive), and a third that was called pass interference.  I didn't like the call.  He clearly went through the receivers' back, but the receiver (Gibson) ran a piss-poor route and Rogers was just breaking on the ball with no intent to go through the receiver to get there.  That's supposed to be a no-call.

Finishing the game

Our defensive style leaves us out for a lot of plays, and even with a rotation, our defensive lineman and every down pass rushers are wearing down at the end of games.  This may be an unavoidable evil of our scheme.  Our run defense was great (save two plays) through three quarters.  But to come back in games where the offense struggles, it needs to be great through four quarters.  When we needed it to come through for us in the final 15 minutes, they didn't get it done.

In that sense, it really is a lot like last year again.  Older players: they're going to wear down after about 50 team defensive plays.  It happened against Houston and it happened against St. Louis.  Chasing Michael Vick is only going to make it that much harder.

Defensive plus/minus

1. Adam Carriker +2 (+4/-2)
2. Carlos Rogers +2 (+2/-0)
3. LaRon Landry +1 (+2/-1)
4. Phillip Buchanon 0 (+1/-1)
5. London Fletcher 0 (+1/-1)
6. Kedric Golston 0 (+1/-1)
7. Lorenzo Alexander 0 (+1/-1)
8. Rocky McIntosh 0 (+1/-1)
9. Phillip Daniels 0 (+1/-1)
10. Albert Haynesworth -1 (+1/-2)
11. Ma'ake Kemoeatu -1 (+2/-3)
12. Vonnie Holliday -1 (+0/-1)
13. Andre Carter -1 (+1/-2)
14. DeAngelo Hall -1 (+0/-1)
15. Kareem Moore -2 (+1/-3)

Overall, more bad plays than good, and a lot of work to get ready for Philly's impressive offense.