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I can honestly say I expected the Washington Redskins to be 3-2 at this point in the season, although the teams they beat are surprises. By outlasting the Green Bay Packers, the 'Skins beat the fourth-ranked team on the Bloguin NFL Week Four Power Poll.

Washington's win had a big impact on the media-types. ESPN's sports writers promoted Washington the 11th in their power poll. They had the 'Skins at No. 16 going into the weekend.

Those media types are easily swayed by the last game they see and by the luminaries on the team. ESPN's John Clayton is no exception. Everything about the Redskins is Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb. Clayton buys into this and rates the Redskins No. 7. In contrast, stat-masters follow the numbers.

Paul Bessire at Predictionmachine.com projected a 6.5-win season for the Redskins after simulating all NFL games 50,000 times. I checked with Bessire to see how his Redskins simulation changed after the team's performance in the first four games. Bessire's Predictilator now has the 'Skins winning 7.5 to 8.5 games now. He projects a fourth-place finish in the division with a mere 21.7 percent chance to make the playoffs.

What has changed it that the Predictilator shows the Redskins closer to winning now than in the preseason. In the Prediction Machine's game-by-game simulation, The Redskins won 44.4 percent of the simulated games against the Colts. Before the season, the Prediction Machine had the 'Skins winning 30 percent of the simulations.

Before the season, the Prediction Machine showed the Redskins winning 37 percent of the simulations against the Bears and 56.5 percent of the simulated games against the Lions. After four live-action games, Bessire's Prediction Machine changed to the 'Skins winning 55.1 percent of the simulations against the Bears and 47.2 percent of the simulations against the Lions.

Note the flip in the projected outcome for the Bears and the Lions. Oh my!

Redskins Hog Heaven is a member of the Bloguin network, so I participate in the Bloguin's NFL Power Poll. I'm guided by points scored, points allowed, offensive line rank and win-loss record in my ranking system. I have the Redskins ranked 18th in the power poll to be released late this week. By that formula, the Cowboys rate ahead of the 'Skins because of points allowed and a strong O-line. (I should have knocked them down a peg or two, but stayed faithful to the process.)

I have the New York Giants as the class of the division after two strong showings. It will be interesting to see if the rest of the Bloguin voters agree.

From what we've seen in the first five games, the last-place Redskins defense will carry the team until McNabb and Shanahan light a fire under this offense.

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The Washington Redskins were an irrelevancy on The NFL Network last season. They were invisible except for discussions about undermining Jim Zorn with Bingo-hall volunteers. How things change with Mike Shanahan, Donovan McNabb and unexpected wins over preseason favorites.

The NFL Network will re-broadcast Sunday's Redskins-Packers game at 8:00 a.m. ET tonight, Tuesday, October 12. That airing will be followed by a replay of the Titans-Cowboys game. The Titans scored 14 fourth-quarter points for the come-back win over the last place team in the Beast.

Check local listings and set your DVR.

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Ex-Redskin Of The Week: Jason Campbell, Quarterback, Oakland Raiders

Jason Campbell came off the bench in the second half to lead touchdown drives of 93 and 73 yards for the Raiders in the win against the San Diego Chargers. Campbell was benched in the second game of the season in favor of back-up Bruce Gradkowski. Gradkowski suffered a shoulder injury mid-way in the game. Campbell in relief competed 13 of 18 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. Oakland's win snapped a 13 game losing streak to the Chargers.

Ex-Redskin Of The Weak: Todd Collins, Quarterback, Chicago Bears

Todd Collins completed 10 of his 16 passes. Unfortunately, four of them were to the opposing Carolina Panthers defense. The Bears beat the Panthers anyway, 23-6, thanks to an opportunistic defense and Matt Forte's 166 rushing yards and two touchdown runs. Forte's rushing yards were five times greater than Collins' net 32 passing yards.

Collins beat out Norv Turner for ex-Redskins of the Weak honors. Turner's San Diego Chargers lost to the Oakland Raiders (see above) in another slow start to the season.

Woop! The Washington Redskins beat the Green Bay Packers. This is no time to nitpick. It's time to celebrate.

We'll have more of our Redskins Hog Heaven thoughtful analysis early this week. For now, here are a few first impressions.

There are real concerns about the offensive line once you get past the starters. You knew that already. The line held up, um, ok, in the few plays when both Trent Williams and Jammal Brown were out. It worked for today, but could have been worse. Please don't make me watch that again.

The Redskins offense looked a lot better with Packers linebacker Clay Matthews out of the game. One "gets" the 3-4 defense by watching the Packers. The Packers defensive linemen pushed the Redskins linemen around far too much, giving Matthews shots at McNabb and the backfield. The Redskins' 3-4 did pretty much the same to the Packers; four sacks.

Is there anything Lorenzo Alexander can't do? Next time I buy a Redskins jersey, it's going to be an Alexander.

Phillip Daniels got a sack. I follow Daniels on Twitter and on Facebook. He's become my favorite Redskins because he shares so much. No, I don't know him, but I know, and like, a lot about him. Excuse me while I go leave a message on his fb page.

We are witnessing the last ride of the Gibbs-Cerrato gang on offense. Think about the players who've left the team, as recently as Saturday, and who touched the ball today, especially the young guys: Armstrong, Torain, Williams. G Derrick Dockery was inactive this game. Defense is a different story. What would the defense be without LaRon Landry and Brian Orakpo. Do notice that they are both draft picks and both young.

I'm loving this. Shanahan puts the guys who practice best on the field on Sunday. Draft round and contracts be damned. Isn't it always like that? Um, no.

Now I get it. The Redskins were showcasing Devin Thomas as a return specialist to draw a trade. Guess there was no point  to keeping him when that didn't work.

Fans will be very patient with McNabb as long as he keeps throwing deep. Fans love the deep ball.

What would this coaching staff thought of Marcus Mason?

The defense may still be on a learning curve, but they hit hard. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers suffered a concussion in overtime. Can opposing quarterbacks survive the 'Skins? The Manning brothers want to know.

I have the sense that the Beast team that takes the division will be the one with the best division record and the best record against the NFC North. The Packers beat the Eagles in Week One by exposing Philly's offensive line. The Pack dominated the 'Skins line at points, but not nearly so much.

The Giants had their way with the Bears who beat the Cowboys. The Lions did not lay down with the Rams today. They crushed them 44-6. Beating the Lions is no certainty. The 'Skins are a leg up by beating the Packers who were ranked No. 4 on the Bloguin NFL Power Poll. That's almost as good as being 2-0 against the Beast.

The 'Skins and the Pack have identical records at 3-2, but the Redskins hold the tie-breaker advantage for a wildcard spot.

Tomorrow, we'll think about what could have been better. Today, there's just one thing to say.

HAIL!

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It's been obvious for some time that wide Receiver Devin Thomas has no place in the Shanahan plan. The Washington Redskins confirmed that today by releasing the 2008 draft pick.

Word was that the 'Skins front office tried to move him by trade last week. Finding no takers, apparently, they applied the ax.

Running back Keiland Williams was promoted off the practice squad to fill Thomas' spot.

Thomas was considered a raw talent when the Redskins made him their first selection on the NFL Draft. Though the pick came in the second round, he felt like a first round pick to Redskins fans who invested him and Malcolm Kelly with high hopes for a return to offensive glory. Both were criticized by Jim Zorn and Vinny Cerrato during training camp for being unconditioned and unprepared for the pros.

Thomas said he worked hard hard this season to earn the No. 2 wide receiver slot. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan echoed Zorn's statement that Thomas was not professional enough to rise through the ranks during practice to crack the line-up.

Thomas seemed befuddled by it all. By the time the regular season opened, he dropped to fifth on the depth chart and said the coaches were not working with him.

Brad Biggs story on National Football Post points to the issue:

"Sources told the National Football Post Thomas was rarely in good shape and that often led to minor injuries. He had suspect work ethic and marginal hands. Surely, someone will take a look at him. He’d be a no-risk investment but Thomas needs to become motivated to turn around his career."

What does this foretell about Malcolm Kelly, now on the injured reserve list?

Running back Keiland Williams, who returned to the practice squad this week, was elevated to the roster in Thomas' spot. Williams was the target out of the backfield for Donovan McNabb passes in the Dallas game.

One would expect that a guy off the practice squad Saturday would not have a big impact in Sunday's game. We've seen last week that doesn't apply with Mike Shanahan. His Saturday moves are becoming routine, sometimes with surprising impact on Sunday.

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Lost in the news about Clinton Portis' groin injury and what that means to the team, are the Washington Redskins' moves to shore up the running back position. Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen have been pretty busy restocking the practice squad.

Stay with me now. This gets confusing.

Washington RB Javarris James to the practice squad Tuesday, hours after James was cut from the New England Patriots practice squad. The Indianapolis Colts signed James off the 'Skins practice squad to their team roster on Thursday. The Colts visit FedEx Field to play the Redskins Sunday, October 17.

James is a cousin of Edgerrin James. He comes from good stock, but he can't possible know enough about Washington's playbook to give the Colts any insight.

Quinn Porter is another matter.

Several news outlets report that the Redskins signed Porter to the practice squad this week, replacing James. The team's web site at redskins.com does not yet report that information, as I write this. Porter signed a rookie contract with the Green Bay Packers, Washington's opponent this Sunday, in April. The Packers placed him on injured reserve with a strained MCL in August, then released him with an injury settlement in late September.

Wait a minute. New Orleans Drew Brees has a strained MCL, but he's playing. Quinn Porter's strained MCL got him added to the IR list, then released by the Packers.

There is no reason why Porter shouldn't share what he knows about the Packers' playbook and game plan, but is he recovered enough to practice and play for the team? Will he stick around for more than a week?

RB Keiland Williams returned to the practice squad Wednesday and released LB Mike Balogun.

Here's what I like. All these moves involve young players. A year ago, the 'Skins would have recalled Larry Johnson or Willie Parker who could give the team more, right now, than any of the rookies mentioned in this story. That's a win-now-just-in-case move. Shanahan and Allen appear to be searching for new talent who might renew the team.

Love it.

Washington Redskins defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth lost his step-brother to a motorcycle accident Thursday night, the Redskins reported today. He has returned to Nashville to be with his family.

His status for Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers is not certain. "I would never ask somebody if they’re going to play when a tragedy like that just happened," says Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan. "We’ll just let the course of time take care of itself and we’ll find out what’s going on."

We at Redskins Hog Heaven express our condolences to Haynesworth and his family.