If it's true that the best defense is a strong offense, then how good must the Washington Redskins D be to beat the Giants? Better than they were the last time they met. Our defense effectively separated Eli Manning from his wide receivers for 58:47 of game time. Then the inexplicable, inexcusable breakdown that opened a highway for Victor Cruz's 77-yard game-winning score.  

The Redskins are undefeated since Coach Mike Shanahan said he was evaluating players after the inexcusable loss to the Panthers. Why anyone pays attention to what Shanahan says in press conferences mystifies me, but everyone took the comment to mean he would evaluate young players for the rest of the season. Um, the 'Skins are already a young team whose best performances are coming from rookies.

For real examples of teams going through conventional player evaluations, look north to the Eagles and maybe the Jets. That didn't happen here.

("You guys should print what the mayor meant instead of what he said." ~ Aide to Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley in the 1970s)

We are two wins over flawed division rivals and facing the Beast of the East Giants to stay close in the hunt for the division title. Sportsbooks set the Giants as three-point favorites and rightly so. But everyone in town, including me, thinks the Redskins will win tonight. Ya gotta love fans.

Hope is not off the mark after the Redskins gained a combined 798 yards in the last two games, and out-scored the Eagles and Cowboys 69-37. The Redskins approach this game with confidence. So does ESPN.

Here's what we saw yesterday.

The Cowboys beat the Eagles to reach 6-6, 3-2 within the division. They need the Redskins to lose, but they need more for the Giants to lose. Dallas is hoping for a tie.

Quarterbacks of the golden class of 2012 led their teams to unexpected wins. You expect Robert Griffin III to do at least as well, don't you? I sure as hell do.

The Giants are the first team to get a second look at RGIII. Look for adjustments. The Giants are the first team that RGIII will see a second time. Look for growth. Both sides are eerily silent about tonight, so growth and adjustments are coming.

Someone baited Victor Cruz into saying the Redskins don't have all the pieces for a title run. The mob turned that into "they aren't as good as the Giants." I don't think Cruz meant it that way.

I assume Cruz refers to the defense, the Redskins he will actually face. He's right. The flaws in the defense are too well documented to deny. The Redskins made their chops as a big play – turnover team. Washington doesn't make stops, but they can force turnovers if DeAngelo Hall plays well and if London Fletcher is not gimpy (ankles).

I hope Mike Shanahan saved something from the playbook to spring on New York tonight. Otherwise, that second look works to the Giants' advantage.

The three stats worth looking at call for a close game

Passer Rating Differential

Hog Heaven buys the Cold Hard Football Facts notion that a favorable passer rating differential has a .667 relationship to wins. It's a "quality stat."   

Since the two teams last met, the Redskins widened their passer rating differential vs. opponents.

Redskins QBR 102.5, Opponents QBR 88.4, Differential +14.1
Giants QBR 84.1, Opponents QBR 84.4, Differential -0.3

Advantage – Redskins

Third Down Stops, the Redskins out-performed the Eagles and Cowboys.

This is one of the only two defensive stats that former Redskins defensive guru Richie Petibon pays attention to. The other is turnover differential.

As with the passer rating, Washington improves slightly since the game in New York. They did not stop the Eagles and Giants on third down. They out-performed them. Thus, the best defense turns out to be a better offense.

Redskins 3rd down attempts 148, 3^rd downs allowed 64, conversion rate 42%
Giants 3rd down attempts 132, 3^rd downs allowed 51, conversion rate 39%   

The Eagles are falling apart. The Cowboys ran poorly and the Redskins knocked Miles Austin out of the game early. The champs are healthier; they will convert third downs. The question of the game is whether they can make critical third down stops in their second game against the RG3skins. The Giants have the chops to do it.

Advantage – Giants, but it's a slight one

Turnover Differential

The NFL ranks defenses by total yards. Indeed the top five teams in total defense are playoff contenders. Yet the Giants and Patriots ranked 27^th and 30^th in that category last year. Both made the Super Bowl. The Redskins ranked 13^th in total defense yet, bungled their way to a five-win season. The difference is turnovers. Washington snagged 13 interceptions all of last season. They have 14 in 11 games this year.

That's just half the story. Robert Griffin III had one task to be considered an upgrade in the position – be better than Rex Grossman. Sexy Rexy threw 16 TD passes and 20 INTs. Griffin has already thrown 16 TD passes, 8 in the last two games, to a mere 4 INTs. Improvement at quarterback is a huge boost for a struggling defense.

Redskins T/O differential +15
Giants T/O differential +13

The hard-hitting Giants forced 17 fumbles and recovered 11 of them. I foresee the Giants being guarded against Griffin III and whaling on his targets to force turnovers. I hope Alfred Morris and the receivers are ready.

Advantage – Even, so turnovers decide the game.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Games take on a life of their own. Stats only suggest an outcome if trends hold true in game.

In time of doubt, I turn to my Magic 8 Ball. The 8 Ball called it right in the last three games. Asked if the Redskins will beat the Giants tonight, the 8 Ball said, "You may rely on it."

Yea, 8 Ball.

HTTR

Image: #BEATNYG image floated by the NFL and the Washington Redskins. There's a New York Giants version floating around, too.

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Jon Gruden had his first up-close look at Robert Griffin III during his Quarterback Camp series for ESPN. Gruden is part of the announcement team for Monday Night Football where he gets his second close look at Griffin and the RG3skins vs. the New York Giants.

Jon Gruden on the Skins: "I’m seeing an offense that I’ve never seen before in pro football." wapo.st/QMKLsX

— Dan Steinberg (@dcsportsbog) November 28, 2012

Gruden already gushes about Griffin III. I can't wait th hear what he says Monday night, but I expect him to wear the sox Griffin gave him during the QB Camp show.

Since the Redskins are not playing Sunday afternoon, we thought this to be a good day to take a second look at the 24-minute video of Grudens Quarterback Camp featuring RGIII. We are posting this from YouTube. Hog Heaven won't begin to guess the copyriht issues here. We suggest you watch the video quick before ESPN discovers it's there.

HAIL. 

Now on Redskins.com – Griffin III, Gruden meet aboard MNF Bus.

• Both Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris are candidates for Pepsi Max Rookie of Week 12 on NFL.com. Cast your vote here.
• The Redskins attempted to claim former Eagles DE Jason Babin off waivers. The NFL awarded Babin to the Jaguars based on Jacksonville's record.
• The Redskins placed rookie ILB Keenan Robinson on Injured Reserve after he suffered a torn pectoral muscle in the Cowboys game. Like S Brandon Meriweather the week before, Robinson said he could have reentered the Cowboys game with the injury. Adrenalin can be both helpful and harmful, can't it. The Redskins filled his roster spot with three-year veteran LB Roddrick Muckelroy.
• The 'Skins added LB Bryan Kehl to the roster one day after Kansas City dropped him. The team released Mario Addison to make room for Kehl. The move adds depth to the linebacker corps where ironman London Fletcher is dealing with a sprained ankle. Fletcher was a game time decision against Dallas.
• The best-selling jersey in the NFL is Redskins No. 10. I don't need to speak the name, do I? 
• Former Redskins receiver Anthony Armstrong has been signed by the Dallas Cowboys. Former Redskins RB Ryan Torain has been signed by the New York Giants.

Image: November 21, 2012 - Tom Pennington/Getty Images North America via zimbio.com.

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Sean Michael Maurice Taylor, April 1, 1983 – November 27, 2007

Tweets make it clear that, 5 years after his death, Sean Taylor hit a nerve for a generation of Redskins fans.

— Anthony Brown (@SkinsHogHeaven) November 27, 2012

Fall asleep tonight knowing that tomorrow morning will be 5 years to the day that Sean Taylor passed. Think of him daily!! Miss ya S. Dot!

— ryan clark (@RealRClark25) November 27, 2012

Never got the chance to meet Sean Taylor, but his legacy is embedded in our franchise. Because of that...We play with him every game

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) November 27, 2012

What's the point of having our local heroes in the playoff hunt if not to engage in what-if games?

Washington Redskins fans and sports writers alike are figuring the team's path to the division. The idea seemed oh so improbable after the inexcusable loss to the Panthers.  

Now that the Redskins beat two beatable division rivals, 'Skins fans can have fun with playoff scenarios. Winning games you are supposed to win is the first step to a trophy.

Rick Snider asks if the Redskins are poised for a playoff run in a story posted Friday on washingtonexaminer.com. Snider focuses on the New York Giants, the Super Bowl champion that Washington swept last season.

The Giants won, more like "escaped," game one, and face perennial contender Green Bay this evening. Every time I read one of these things, there's an air of presumption the Packers will win tonight. Hmm, the Giants didn't win the Super Bowl for nothing and they are coming off a Bye. The Giants are a team with questions. They are not a team in trouble.

Sportsbook Bovada.lv set New York as three-point favorites at home.

Snider thinks it possible the Redskins could run the table on their seven games after the Bye. Seven wins would assure a division title with a 10-6 record. Hog Heaven has said since September that no Beast team will win 10 games this year. Even Snider doesn't think that is likely.

My blogging friend Rich Tandler (I met him once. In the Blogosphere, that's friendship.) points out that the Redskins have wildcard possibilities. The 'Skins trail the Vikes, Bucs and Seahawks by 1½ games for the second wildcard slot as we go into Sunday's game. Rich tells who to root for today looking at all the games of all the wildcard contenders.

The Al Davis playoff formula – just win, baby

Fodder for fans. Hog Heaven won't have it. The only way for the Redskins to assure a playoff spot is to win the next game. Then, go win the next game. You can't have players looking at the scoreboard, worried about what other teams are doing. Win, and let other teams worry about you.

Just beat the Giants, then the next game

The Redskins cannot afford to let the Giants sweep them. The 'Skins are in that position because they failed to finish the Giants in New York. Lose to the Giants next week and this discussion becomes moot. That's true whatever the outcome of Giants-Packers.

Washington has to take one of the two remaining games against AFC North teams. The Ravens will be watching Giants at Redskins.

The Giants are the first team to face Robert Griffin III for a second time. You can bet the farm they game planned him during their Bye. Baltimore will see Giants at Redskins as a clinic for managing the RG3skins offense. The Ravens defense can do anything the Giants defense can do.

Don't sleep on Cleveland, either. They took the Cowboys to the edge in week 11. The Browns defense is AFC North-worthy. Worrisome fact: Cleveland allowed fewer third-down conversions on more attempts than the Redskins have.

Washington's best skill players played either in warm weather colleges (RGIII, Alfred Morris) or in indoor stadiums (Pierre Garçon). This game will be in Cleveland in December at an outdoor stadium by the lake. Take if from one who lived in the upper Midwest.  They only think they know what cold feels like.

If you are a Redskins fan, look no further than the Panthers and Rams to know that wins are not to be presumed against teams like the Browns.

Finish

If the Redskins must lose to a division rival, Philadelphia is the choice. That 25-point margin of victory two weeks ago is a fat, tiebreaker cushion. If the Redskins lose to the Cowboys, it must be by fewer than seven points to hold the tiebreaker advantage. DeAngelo Hall's slide at the Dallas one-yard line could come back to bite the team.

Thus, if Washington wins two of its remaining division games and one of the AFC North games, they finish 8-8, and 4-2 inside the division. If one of those division wins is over the Giants, the Redskins will hold real tiebreaker advantage.

With one more win over that, say by sweeping the Beast, or sweeping the two AFC North teams, Washington is sure to take the division. Other teams become irrelevant. Better yet, Washington will have the look of a division champion with 9-7 record, maybe 5-1 inside the Beast.

Washington doesn't have to win every game. (Please, coach Mike, no more "must win games.") They don't have to watch scores of other games. They just have to win the next game, and then go win the next game....

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Thanksgiving dinner included turkey with stuffing, ham, mashed potatoes & gravy, green beans, wine, pies and a Redskins can of whupass on the Dallas Cowboys. Heavenly.

Here are 10 Redskins Hog Heaven observations about the team on the day after dinner.  

1. The Redskins confirmed their identity as a big play, turnover team. They are a strong rushing team, but running is not the formula for success in the modern NFL. The 'Skins survive on Griffin-fueled big plays and defensive scores off turnovers.

We are holding our view that Washington is a .500 club. The difference between games before the bye and the two games after is that they've made the most of their opportunities off big plays and turnovers. No titles predicted here, but scoring is fun to watch.

2. Are you prepared for next week's Rookie of the Week vote?

So, Robert Griffin III, this week's Rookie of the Week, is the leading candidate for next week's Rookie of the Week. #Redskins

— Anthony Brown (@SkinsHogHeaven) November 23, 2012

3. It's not all about RGIII. It just seems that way. Of course, when the opposing secondary leaves our receivers spectacularly open as the Eagles and Cowboys have, RGIII looks good just by finding the open man.  The rest of the team feeds off him. In the back of the minds of the secondary, is the thought that a turnover means putting the ball back in Griffin's hands.

Proudly driving my RG32DC plates through Charleston this morning. A new dawn as RG3 blew up the Death Star! #HTTR

— Burgess N Goldman (@burgngoldman) November 23, 2012

That said, lets tip the hat to RB Alfred Morris for his one TD, 113 yard day. What a horse. RGIII isn't the only reason why Washington has a bright future.

4. D.Hall, D.Hall. Just when you hate DeAngelo Hall, the man lives up to his role as designated interceptor. He snagged one yesterday, his fourth of the season. Unlike 2010, when he scored four INTs on one game against Chicago, his performance is spread across multiple games. That means more opportunities to beat more opponents.

Vinny Cerrato overreacted to Hall's performance against the Bears and signed him to an incredibly stupid contract that had to be undone by Bruce Allen. I do not blame Hall for the deal. Sometimes your boss just pays you stupid money. Nobody says "no" to that. But, Cerrato and DC Greg Blache disregarded the leadership intangibles that Hall lacks in their effort to build a defense around him. They undervalued Carlos Rogers' superior (to Hall's) coverage skills and overvalued what Albert Haynesworth would bring to the pass rush to force more turnovers. The Redskins incurred the wrath of the NFL Management Council to fix the Hall and Haynesworth contracts. That will always taint D.Hall's reputation around here.

As we said, the deal was not his fault.

5. D.Hall, Part II, The Goal line Slide. Hog Heaven has never seen an onside kick recovered so cleanly and with an express lane to a touchdown as Hall had  last night. Hall's slide at the two-yard line triggered quite the discussion at Thanksgiving dinner where Redskins partisans believe one never passes a chance to score on the Cowboys.

Hog Heaven found himself the voice of reason explaining the logic of the move. Defending a controversial move by Hall was an odd sensation. I hope never to repeat it. In narrow situations, it would have been a brilliant move.  It was unnecessary, however. Hall's touchdown would have padded the Redskins' lead by two scores.

But, Hall said he was thinking of the team when he slid. "I was always told that the offense closes the game." He wanted the offense to take the victory formation when the Cowboys could do nothing to stop the clock. (See Point No. 2 above) Hall didn't think logically. For once, he reverted to coaching. I'm not going to criticize Hall for listening to coaching.

6. Playoffs? Playoffs? Nothing ignites the playoff what-if game like two-straight wins over division rivals. Every fan of every team plays that game. It's the joy of sports. Here's a quote from an Eagles writer for the Philadelphia Examiner written before the Redskins-Cowboys game.

"On the other hand, if the Redskins pull the upset, the Eagles will maintain sole possession of last place for one more week. Washington would then be 5-6 and move into second place over Dallas via another tiebreaker. In addition, if the 6-4 New York Giants lose to the Green Bay Packers on Nov. 25, then New York, Washington and Dallas would be in a legitimate three-team hunt for the NFC East title – with Philadelphia the only team left out of it."

Pro players, the smart ones anyway, don't give in to that thinking. They don't want to win every game. They want to win the next game.  The next game is at home against division rival New York. Win that game, and then go win the next one.

If (hey, I can't resist either.) Washington takes two of its remaining three division games, they can be favored to win the division...provided they do not allow the Giants to sweep them.

This would be possible because the Beast isn't very good this year. 8-8 might take the division. It's as if the Earth reversed rotation so that the sun is rising on the NFC West and setting on the NFC East.

7. The Cleveland Browns are on the schedule. Until the Redskins prove they can beat downtrodden teams like the Browns, Panthers and Rams, lets not size them up for a deep playoff run. Strong teams might beat another strong team, but they always beat the beatable teams.

Don't be fooled by Cleveland's record. The Browns have a rugged defense, on par with the AFC North. The Redskins play the Browns in Cleveland on a cold December Sunday by the lake. RGIII has never felt the cold he is going to feel that day.

Washington should win that game. When did that mean anything? Cleveland is the most dangerous team on the schedule.

8. Kai Forbath made another field goal. He's 10 for 10 on career field goals. If the front office was so smart, why wasn't Forbath in training camp in August?

The Redskins kicked Graham Gano to the curb to for Billy Cundiff's supposed ability to kick touchbacks. That's something for Forbath to work on. He kicked two against Dallas, one helped by a Cowboys penalty that allowed a kick-off from the 50-yard line.

Danny Smith & company made a huge issue of kicking touchbacks while assuming Cundiff's field goal reliability. Forbath's shortcoming on touchbacks beats the alternative. Hog Heaven can live with that.

9. The Redskins did well on the three stats worth watching.

·         Quarterback Rating Differential : Griffin's QBR 132.6, Romo's QBR 84.1. Differential +48.5

·         Forced Turnovers: Redskins 3, Cowboys 1

·         Third Downs Allowed: Redskins 47%, Cowboys 50%

10. Redskins mini-Bye. The coaching staff made the most of the Bye week taking the extra time to game plan the Cowboys as well as the Eagles. It balanced the short week before playing on Thanksgiving Day. Now they get 11 days to heal up and get ready for the Monday Night contest against the Super Bowl Giants. Demand for Redskins tickets will get a bump.

The Giants are the first team to get a second look at the Griffin-fueled offense, and they have both the coaching and the defense to cope with it better than they did in game one. The Redskins blew the lead in that one.

The whole league will watch to see what New York does. The Ravens will copy it if it works. The Ravens defense can do anything the Giants can do. Not every team can.

Associated Press: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins hold off Dallas Cowboys rally.

Images:
Redskins vs. Cowboys – November 21, 2012 - Source: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America via zimbio.com.
DeAngelo Hall bitch slaps Dez Bryant, borrowed from SB Nation.

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When I gave up my Redskins season tickets, I transferred some of those dollars on Navy games in nearby Annapolis. I must say, the Midshipmen do it up right.

The Navy ticket office send me these appeals to send a Midshipman or enlisted person to a Bowl game. I usually help a little, this time by sharing the graphic with the details along with a little change I will send.