And that's just the defense. Mike Shanahan can't go any longer coaching an offense that turns the ball over as often as it scores touchdowns. You just can't survive in the NFL that way, and frankly, you have to be a "somebody" to have survived a 30 game turnover streak, particularly since every coach that ever did survive such a performance almost certainly had to concede to fire their offensive coordinator in order to get another crack at it. Shanahan got started early shaping his 2012 offense, deciding to protect WR Aldrick Robinson over RB Ryan Torain, which was probably an intelligent (if ultimately meaningless) decision. To fix this offense, tough decisions may need to be made with the only Redskins to have played on the 2005 team that won a playoff game: Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and Mike Sellers. Tough decisions may need to be made with Jammal Brown, who the team gave up a fourth round pick to acquire and then signed to a long-term deal, and with Tim Hightower, who is coming off surgery to repair an ACL and the Redskins gave up a 6th round pick to acquire.
The alternative to the idea that the Redskins have begun to value their draft picks is that the three players they gave up picks for were Donovan McNabb, Tim Hightower, and Jammal Brown (and if you want to be liberal with the definition of 'gave up picks for,' add Roy Helu). On the plus side, they were successful at improving the running back position for their efforts.
Anyway, the past record may end up irrelevant. The fact that the Redskins haven't been good under the Shanaplan does not mean that it will never work. But I will go as far as saying that if they can't get it right in the offseason leading up to the draft, then it is safe to say it will never work. The 2012 offseason is pivotal in that way.
I will examine the Redskins unrestricted free agents, and look at who the Redskins need back next year and who they can let walk.
London Fletcher
On May 19th, London Fletcher will turn 37. Training camp will still be two months away.
There is probably no 37 year old in the league who means as much to his team at London Fletcher. Peyton Manning will be 36 in March. If he plays, there is an argument to be made for Ray Lewis being more important to the Ravens than London Fletcher to the Redskins, but I'm not even sure that is accurate at this point. For argument and comparison only, here is a list of 36+ year olds and the approximate value of their 2011 seasons. Here is a similar list over a three year span.
The lists are clear in one thing: in Fletcher, we are talking about a player who is more comparable to Ray Lewis than to any other player at his age or older. Unlike Lewis, Fletcher is not openly considering retirement and is argably aging better than Lewis is.
So what might Fletcher cost? According to rotoworld.com, this deal was signed by a veteran (formerly of an NFC East team) on February 28th, 2009:
2/28/2009: Signed a five-year, $17 million contract. The deal includes $7.2 million guaranteed. Another $10 million is available via performance incentives. 2011-2013: $6 million, 2014: Free Agent
That contract was signed by Brian Dawkins, who turned 36 that Fall. A $7 million guarantee sounds like a minimum for keeping Fletcher in town, meaning that a contract to him will probably be at least three years. If it is longer than three years, that will just be for cap purposes, though the Redskins under Bruce Allen have shown no propensity to use contractual dummy years to lessen the cap hit of free agent contracts.
There is reason to believe Fletcher can put up a good season or two under a new contract, though once we reach 2014 (assuming Fletcher still wants to play), you're talking about an incredibly abbreviated number of quality starter seasons since the merger by non-quarterbacks, and the list itself is almost exclusively comprised of hall of famers. Former Redskin Ray Brown was pretty much the only post-merger exception to the rule, who continued to play 16 game seasons late into his 40s and managed to be a quality reserve on the 2004 and 2005 Redskin teams. The lesson is it doesn't matter how well London Fletcher takes care of his body, we're now down to the last season or two seasons of a great career (I'll put my money on two seasons).
So a three year contract with seven million guaranteed, I think you're looking at a total value of about $16 to $18 million in total value with $5.5 or $6 million (non-guaranteed) in the last season of the deal which Fletcher is unlikely to see due to anticipated retirement. So for his age 37 and 38 seasons, the Redskins need to pay Fletcher about $6 million per season (which is actually a higher annual value than he signed for back in 2007), and guarantee him his 2012 salary (around $5 million). So if the deal is structured salaries of $5 million-$5 million-$6 million, then either the Redskins should guarantee $2 million of Fletcher's second year salary, or add a $2 million signing bonus in the deal. Doing it the former way gives the Redskins protection against Fletcher's retirement. Doing it the latter way gives the Redskins a bit more flexibility if Fletcher struggles.
The real issue here is that the Redskins have had a bunch of chances to work out a reasonable Fletcher extension, and never bothered to initiate contract discussions. His age had plenty to do with that I'm sure, but the rumblings that have come out of the Fletcher camp sound a lot like a lot of past players who have left the Redskins with some hard feelings. I think Fletcher will be back, but I think he's more likely to look for best offer than people think.
LaRon Landry
In the case of LaRon Landry, we have the kind of deal where the player is dealing with a potentially serious injury for the first time in his football career, and he's not handling it all that well. LaRon Landry may not lack durability so much as he lacks common sense. Conversely, since I'm not close enough to his personal situation to speak with great information, Landry may be acting in his personal best interest, and may simply have a durability issue. If the Redskins don't know better, they'll need to treat it like a durability issue. They may no better. This analysis will assume we're dealing with a player who has an injury history.
The best option here is the franchise tag. The market value for a player of Landry's quality who is just shy of 28 years old comes out to between $6-8 million dollars per season. Michael Huff got a deal last year that payed him $32 million dollars over four seasons, and $16 million in the first year of the deal (mostly a signing bonus). Landry is a better, more valuable player than Michael Huff. Though no safety is likely to receive the percentage of guaranteed money Huff got from the Raiders (which was out of line with the market), $8 million dollars a year for a young, talented safety with a good resume is not obscene, it's market value.
Landry would essentially have to sign a contract that allows a team to get away from him after one year. Antrel Rolle's contract with the Giants was 5 years/$37 million. Landry, even on a bad foot, is a better player. Rolle is just over two years older than Landry and hit the market two years ago. If the market believes they are getting a player who will be in the pro bowl sooner rather than late. Still, compare him to the Atogwe contract: if Landry hits the market, it's going to cost at least ten to twelve million in first year money (signing bonus plus salary) to get his signiture. To date, Landry's career looks like the start of Bob Sanders' career or John Lynch's career. Landry's career path can still fall anywhere between his best years being in the rear view mirror to having a kind of borderline hall of fame case with multiple pro bowls and maybe an all-pro season in there.
The projected franchise tag value for a safety in 2012, according to Football Outsiders' Brian McIntyre, is between $6.2 and $6.5 million. If the Redskins are for any reason not sold long term on Landry, it would be absolutely inexcusable to not put the franchise tag on him for 2012 -- unless of course the Redskins are actively looking to be rid of him. Performance wise, Landry is probably the best player on the defense when healthy. There's a lot of things he cannot do. He can not cover anyone man to man. He can not stay healthy. He doesn't always have a great frame of mind for the mental side of the game (celebrates too many tackles on opponents' succesful plays). And at the end of the day, his coverage range and physical presence are every bit as important to the team as London Fletcher's leadership and consistency are.
At the end of the day, Landry will be more difficult to replace than the next guy on this list, who at least may be a better player right now.
Fred Davis
The franchise tag value for a tight end has been estimated between $5.4 to 5.7 million. That's cheaper than a safety tender, but the Redskins' aim should be to avoid the franchise tag with Fred Davis and get an extension done.
Comparable contracts? Greg Olsen signed an extension with the Panthers for 5 years/$24.7 million. Jason Witten signed for 5 years/$37 million with $19 million guaranteed. Marcedes Lewis signed for Jacksonville for 5 years/$35 million, with a guaranteed figure for a TE of $17 million. Vernon Davis signed for 6 years/$42.7 million with $23 million guaranteed before the 2010 season. Kellen Winslow signed for 6 years/$36 million with $20 million guaranteed before the 2009 season. Cooley's deal was (and is) 6 years/$30 million prior to 2007. Cooley will make about $4 million a year these next two years. The average annual value of a Fred Davis contract will need to exceed that.
Every player on that list except Witten was drafted in the first round, which I'm sure pressure their teams to keep them and commit to them. There is a good chance the Redskins can get Davis locked up with a deal that doesn't neccessarily approach those other deals. But the average value of those contracts ranges from $5 million a year to a little over $7 million a year. The Fred Davis contract will certainly fall into that range.
I think 5 years/$27.5 million (identical to the Jammal Brown deal) probably gets it done as long as the Redskins guarantee Davis about 40% of the contract (which comes out to $12 or $12.5 million -- much more than the Brown deal). You're looking at a signing bonus of $5 million, a guaranteed first year salary of about $4 million and about $3 or $3.5 million of his second year salary to be guaranteed with some money tied up in roster bonuses in years 3-5, plus incentives.
In case you are wondering, the amount of cap space it will take to have Landry under the franchise tag with the two proposed contracts to Davis and Fletcher comes out to $17 or $17.5 million under the 2012 cap to keep all three of them.
Adam Carriker
Carriker is unlikely to command a huge contract, as something like 3 years/$9 million or 2 years/$8 million likely gets his signature. But if he's going to be a reserve, it's worth questioning if that's worth it. Carriker proved in his time with Washington that he's a viable player to teams that play a true two-gap 30 front, which makes him an attractive option to a number of teams who have a hole in their roster at the DT position.
If Carriker is looking for $4 million in a signing bonus, he's going to cost about $3 to 3.5 million on the 2012 cap. That's a backup QB committment, but maybe not so much for a defensive lineman.
I think Carriker will be out there on the market for a long time, and I could see him returning to Washington if other teams who bring him in for a visit end up going in a different direction. The need for a player like Carriker on the roster is there. But the Redskins aren't going to get in a bidding war for him.
Will Montgomery
Montgomery is among a ton of centers in free agency this year and will get buried amongst much bigger names. The best name was John Sullivan of the Vikings, but he's been signed long-term. Dan Koppen of the Patriots, Matt Birk of the Vikings, Scott Wells of the Packers, Jeff Saturday of the Colts, Casey Wiegmann of the Chiefs, Samson Satele of the Raiders, and Chris Myers of the Texans all have expiring contracts. Add to that list Olin Kreutz, formerly of the Saints, and at least temporarily retired. That's six pro bowlers, and one of the two guys that isn't a pro bowler (Myers) might be the best of that bunch. Mike Shanahan drafted Chris Myers. He also traded him.
What could make it harder to retain Montgomery is if Kreutz, Birk, Saturday, Wiegmann, and perhaps even Koppen (though unlikely) all have played their last down in 2011. If the NFL loses all those guys to retirement, now the free agency class looks like 1) Myers, 2) Wells, 3) Montgomery and all of a sudden there are more than three teams with a need at center. But if some of their teams retain their veterans, it's unlikely that Will Montgomery will receive a starter offer elsewhere.
Kedric Golston
Golston becomes a really interesting case. With Carriker likely to receive offers to play for other teams, it's worth pointing out that in 2011, Golston was a more effective player on a down by down basis than Carriker was. This is a guy who was awful in 2010 and lost his starting job for 2011. Now he might make the most sense to be brought back on another one-year deal to provide depth.
In a perfect world, the Redskins could spend $2 million in cap space and have both Golston and Carriker back in 2012 as backup defensive lineman, providing the unit the depth it needs pending one rookie DE to come out of the draft (probably late in the draft). But it might be tough to retain them both. So I would say that if it came down to picking between the two, I would take Golston on a one year contract.
Tim Hightower
The Redskins need to bring in a veteran at RB, and because of the nature of Hightower's injury (knee), I would think of his 2012 prospects more as a two position backups (RB and FB) rather than a guy who can carry a load in any one of the 17 weeks of the season. That does fit what the Redskins want to due in terms of featuring Royster and Helu. The good thing about Hightower is that he'll be inexpensive on the cap, and he won't prevent the Redskins from adding a RB they really like in the draft. They can keep four RBs if the fourth RB is Tim Hightower.
The argument against offering Hightower a one year contract is that he might not be the best guy for the job available. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, and Cadillac Williams are better players and could be just as available. Mike Tolbert will come with more of a financial investment, but if you're looking for a two position backup, he's a better fit. Earnest Graham might be looking for a new destination. Just an athlete who can line up in or out of the backfield and can threaten defenses. What the Redskins really 'need' is a matchup nightmare or moveable chess piece. The Redskins were interested in Darren Sproles before the 2010 season when the Chargers reluctantly decided to tender him.
Unfortunately, there are no players like that in this free agent RB class. The closest player may be Jerious Norwood or Justin Forsett. It's more likely the Redskins give Steve Slaton a shot, though that would not be a good decision giving Kyle Shanahan's history of favoring Slaton over much better runners.
Rex Grossman
The Redskins would be better off with Rex Grossman back in the fold in 2012, but one thing they cannot do is guarantee his 2012 salary to have him. There is talk of the Redskins picking two quarterbacks in the draft, and I think they will sign a veteran. That's three guys added to the roster. While I wouldn't be in a hurry to turn over absolutely everything about the position on the Redskins, Grossman's value to the team in 2012 comes only if they 1) avoid the free agent market for QBs, or 2) have a rookie as a third stringer. Grossman does no good on the roster as the third quarterback.
The Redskins can budget $3 to $4 million in the cap for a backup QB (or starter in some cases where the no. 2 guy is a rookie second round draft choice). That should outbid all other offers for Grossman, making Washington the only place Grossman could win the starters job as well as the place offering him the most money.
Darrion Scott/Keyaron Fox
Should be added to the 80 man roster. Fox is an excellent insurance policy for a long Fletcher injury, and probably should have been playing instead of Rocky McIntosh while the Redskins prepared Perry Riley for the job.
Rocky McIntosh
I would not even tender Rocky McIntosh (or Kentwan Balmer, or Donte Stallworth) a contract on the 80 man roster. It is time to move on. no comments
Defensive Front Seven (unrestricted free agency year): NT Barry Cofield (2017), DT Stephen Bowen (2016), DT Jarvis Jenkins (2015), NT Chris Neild (2015), LB Ryan Kerrigan (2016), LB Markus White (2015), LB Brian Orakpo (2014), LB Perry Riley (2014) LB Lorenzo Alexander (2013), LB Rob Jackson (2013)
This is a remarkably efficient group of contracts, making the defensive front seven the strength of the Washington Redskins organization in more ways than one. Now, quite obviously, this group is missing it's leader in the middle of the defense: that's free agent stalwart London Fletcher. And the Redskins have to find a way to get consistently stronger and deeper in the front three. So this is not an area of the team that is without it's needs. But it's already a strength of the team and has the potential to get even stronger.
Because there are no termination risks in this group with regards to the 2012 season (a remarkable state really for a sizable portion of the roster), I'll instead look at two potential scenarios that won't be relevant until a year from now (at least): if the Redskins need to get away from either the Barry Cofield contract or the Stephen Bowen contract after the 2012 season.
The release (cap) fee for Barry Cofield will always be equal to $2.284 million times the amount of years left on the contract. There would be four years remaining on the contract after 2012 (=$9.136 million). As always, the Redskins can choose to take that all in the current year, or to take $2.284 million in the current year (in this example, 2013) and take the remaining $6.85 million on the cap in year N+1 (in this example, 2014). Cofield's base salaries (plus roster bonuses) in those two seasons are equal to $6.55 million (2013), and $4.55 million (2014). There's a complication with that roster bonus in 2013, as it was clearly designed in the contract to prevent the team for exercising all of it's cap flexibility with regards to the non-guaranteed portion of the contract. The Redskins can avoid paying Cofield the roster bonus, but doing so would force them to eat $9 million on the 2013 cap to not have Cofield, which essentially functions to guarantee the third year of the contract (and the roster bonus).
The Bowen contract is much simpler. The amortized cap bonus per year for Stephen Bowen is $1.5 million. There will be three years remaining on the contract after 2012, meaning that the total remaining cap hit is $4.5 million. The Redskins would have the option to take a $4.5 million cap hit in 2013, or take a $1.5 million cap hit in 2013 and a $3 million cap hit in 2014. Bowen's salaries in those two seasons are $3.9 million and $4.4 million, meaning that the Redskins can opt to save cap money both years, or wipe the committment from the books in 2013 (with a net cap cost of $600k). The bottom line is that the Bowen contract is much more team-friendly to the Redskins than the Cofield contract.
Hopefully, Cofield and Bowen are dominant enough to represent the Redskins in Honolulu in 2012, and none of this is even remotely an issue next year.
Secondary (unresticted free agency year): O.J. Atogwe (2016), DeJon Gomes (2015), DeAngelo Hall (2014), Josh Wilson (2014), Reed Doughty (2014), Byron Westbrook (2013), Kevin Barnes (2013)
Doughty, Westbrook, and Barnes all enter 2012 in a fight to keep their roster spots. The cap ramifications of parting with any of those guys is not significant. Josh Wilson will be back next year and looks like a virtual lock to play out his three year contract with the Redskins. This analysis will focus on two of the other guys on this list who did not perform well in 2011.
O.J. Atogwe's contract was essentially structured as a glorified one year guaranteed contract, and with the way he played in 2011 (up and down, always injured), it's really difficult to see him being back next year. He's not particularly expensive on the cap if the Redskins decide to keep him around for 2012 with a reasonable $3.4 million salary, but the Redskins can probably do better for that money. Atogwe's remaing cap cost is $1.6 million, meaning the Redskins can actually save some cap dollars by releasing him just one year into a five year deal, which is practically unheard of. Atogwe's agent knew that the terms of this deal paid the safety handsomely in 2011 (just under $10 million dollars for one year of work), but that the Redskins essentially now hold four one-year team options on the veteran safety. This WASN'T a good contract for the Redskins, but now that the expensive first year is history, it has become an asset of sorts.
Back in 2010, the Redskins leveraged the uncapped season to make a guaranteed money dump for DeAngelo Hall and for Albert Haynesworth, driving the cap dollars up (and screwing with the franchise tag process!) through the roof, and making the contract very manageable for the rest of the time he is under team control. In doing so, the Redskins opted to move a ton of extra (unlikey to ever be paid) money into the last year of the contract, making the sixth year of Hall's deal (2014) pretty much a dummy year (cap value = $24 million). More relevant to the current discusion, the Redskins will need to make a decision on Hall for 2012. Hall's salaries these next two years are $6.8 million and $8.3 million. His remaining release fee is an astonishly low $600k, due only to the $1.5 million signing bonus he got on the day he signed the contract in 2009. The Redskins can save $6 million in 2012 by parting ways with Hall. In other words, if you keep him at that cap value, he needs to be playing every defensive snap. If he isn't valuable to you in that way, now is a good time to get rid of him, re: cap concerns.
The bigger concern on the defensive side of the ball is getting new contracts for players like LaRon Landry, London Fletcher, and Adam Carriker. Contractually, there are a couple of straight forward decisions to be made on existing contracts such as Atogwe and Hall, but the Redskins aren't hurting for the immediate cap dollars, and rest assured that no matter how the team chooses to spin it, a release of either of those two players will be a "football decision."
Next week, I will look at the impending Redskins free agents, as well as the available cap space, with some guesses on how much space and how much activity we are in for as we head into Offseason 2012. no comments
Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III formally declared for the 2012 NFL Draft and the hearts of Washington Redskins fans are all a-flutter.
Cool your jets.
The Redskins face such long odds to land RG3 that it is unlikely to happen.
You can thank the Atlanta Falcons for that. Atlanta traded five Draft picks to the Cleveland Browns to position their selection of Alabama WR Julio Jones. The result is that Cleveland has the ammunition to outbid any offer the Redskins might make to move up in the Draft.
But, you don't come here to read about obstacles. You want to read about the possibilities. So here is a piece of hope. The teams ahead of the Redskins are in a real flux that might grant Redskins fans their fondest wish—a rookie quarterback with franchise potential who will perform for the team for a decade.
Look at the teams making the first five Draft picks.
1. Indianapolis Colts - Owner Jim Irsay fired team president Bill Polian and GM Chris Polian and named Ryan Grigson as the new GM. Grigson must decide whether to keep head coach Jim Caldwell and untangle a salary cap mess that includes Peyton Manning's contract. The Colts owe Manning a $28 million bonus on March 8.
Irsay has said that Manning would end his career as a Colt. There are whispers of disputes between Irsay and Polian about Manning's role when the Colts draft Andrew Luck. Could that mean that the Colts would not select Luck? That is unlikely, but one team isn't big enough for both Manning and Luck despite Irsay's fondest wish. Manning would draw interest from the Browns, Redskins or the Miami Dolphins. The New York Jets are rumored to have an interest. Manning would have a large say in where he goes and would undoubtedly prefer the Dolphins or Jets to the Browns or Redskins.
2. St. Louis Rams - With vacancies at head coach and general manager, the Rams are a mystery. In all probability, the new executive team will be charged with making quarterback Sam Bradford a better player. Anything is possible with a new front office, including the appeal of Stanford's Andrew Luck to sell tickets to a Los Angeles (ahem) fan base. The Rams have as many needs as the Colts. With as many as nine teams in need of a franchise quarterback, the Rams are the target to leapfrog the Browns. The Browns will strive to keep that from happening.
If the Colts bypass Luck, the Rams may pounce. They are a threat to draft and keep Robert Griffin III and rebuff all trade offers. Bradford could be a nice consolation prize that would draw as much interest as RG3.
Optimum Scouting has the Rams selecting WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma). DC Pro Sports Report has OT Matt Kalil (USC).
3. Minnesota Vikings - With many team needs, the Vikings would welcome trade offers for their draft spot from teams looking to make a preemptive strike for Griffin 3rd ahead of the Browns. All Minnesota needs to do is answer the phone...that won't start ringing until Draft Day right after St. Louis makes their move.
The Draft sites see the Vikings selecting Kalil or Blackmon if they use their pick.
4. Cleveland Browns - Browns President Mike Holmgren is intent on a quarterback competition to set the 2012 starter. Griffin 3rd would fall to Cleveland in the natural order of events. Sixty-two percent of the mocks tracked by DCPSR see it that way. Per Wikipedia, "Atlanta had traded five draft picks to the Cleveland Browns to move up into their spot and take Jones, giving up their 27th, 59th, and 124th picks from the 2011 draft, and their first and fourth round picks from the 2012 draft." Mana from heaven to Holmgren who believes in building through the Draft.
Cleveland can package its two remaining picks from Atlanta with one of their own to move to the head of the class. That's playing with house money.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Raheem Morris paid the extreme price for the collapse of his team. The Bucs are young. Their prospects are thought to be bright. Their biggest problem might have been failure to cope with success. Morris and the Buccaneers lost every game after their emotionally satisfying win at home over long time nemesis New Orleans. Kids! What are you gonna do?
Tampa Bay isn't looking to replace quarterback Josh Freemen. They want him to play better. The smart people who follow these things think the Bucs will take OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford) or CB Morris Claiborne (LSU). They could get calls on Draft Day from teams looking to jump Washington if RG3 slips past Cleveland.
6. Washington Redskins - If Rex Grossman threw half the number of interception last season, his resulting 83.0 QB passer rating would still be the lowest in the NFC East. Safe to say that no one will ever again buy Grossman's claim that Washington can take the division, especially if he is the starter. It's also safe to say the Redskins will have a revenue problem if Grossman is the starter next season. Mike Shanahan has all of his Draft picks to work with to move up or down. Here's a bonus, Washington gets to use the fourth round pick they got for Jason Campbell.
8. Miami Dolphins - Miami is the biggest threat after Cleveland to preempt a Redskins' bid to move up for Griffin 3rd. Team owner Stephen Ross wants to make a big splash by landing a big name coach and a big name and a big name quarterback. These sentiments are vaguely familiar. Oh yeah, they are early Daniel Snyder. Ross' aggression will upset the orderly market for NFL talent and will unhinge Washington's attempts to move up for Luck or Griffin.
The offseason is the game between the seasons with all the drama, risks, intrigues and rewards of any game. Teams that win on the field win the offseason. I love this time of year. Can't wait for the 2012 Draft Day Party at FedEx Field.
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The Washington Redskins hired ex-Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris to be the new defensive backfield coach, according to The Washington Post and other media outlets. Why hire the head coach of a 4-12 team with the 21st-ranked passing defense? Perhaps the prior relationship with 'Skins GM Bruce Allen many have something to do with it. Allen was Tampa Bay's GM before signing with the Redskins. Morris also worked with Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan when both were on Gruden's Buccaneers coaching staff.
Morris was Tampa Bay's defensive backfield coach for four seasons. He replaced Monte Kiffen as defensive coordinator in 2008 than Tampa Bay promoted him to head coach in 2009 replacing Jon Gruden. He has a 17-31-0 record as head coach.
The Redskins released safeties coach Stephen Jackson and wide receivers coach Keenan McCardell in related moves.
Jackson was controversial in his early tenure with Washington. Gregg Williams brought Jackson to the defensive coaching staff when he converted the secondary to the Tampa-2 set. Newly signed, and at the time highest paid, safety Adam Archuleta fared poorly in that scheme. Star safety Sean Taylor regressed in his development under Jackson. There are whispers that the two did not get along. But Jackson survived the turmoil from the Joe Gibbs coaching staff until Mike Shanahan's.
McCardell joined the coaching staff two seasons ago after a distinguished 16-year NFL career. no comments
Oh goody, I thought when I heard that the Washington Redskins coaching staff would tutor the South players in the 2012 Senior Bowl on January 28. Mike and Kyle Shanahan would get the first, up close look at Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin 3rd and other playmaking skill players the Redskins desperately need.
Not so fast there, cowboy.
My friend Eric Galko (never met him, exchanged tweets) of Optimum Scouting burst my bubble. Juniors are not eligible to play in the Senior Bowl. Andrew Luck and Griffin 3rd are redshirt juniors and the game is not called the Junior-Senior Bowl.
That is Shanahan's loss (and ours), but also a loss for the Senior Bowl and the East-West Shrine Game played on January 21. Neither Andrew Luck nor RG3, if he indeed declares for the 2102 NFL Draft, will ever play in those games because the Bowls' own rules conspire against them.
Come on people. It's the 21st Century. The Bowls bill themselves as a preview of NFL Draft prospects, a sort of prep school for the pros. They have enough of a partnership** with the league to guess which undergrads will go high in the Draft. The word "undergrad" should not apply to athletes who have, you know, graduated.
Both the Senior Bowl and the Shrine Game are leaving money on the table by depriving the viewing audience of Draft-eligible undergrads like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.
Mike Shanahan is a loser too. Working out Luck or Griffin would help him decide how hard to push a move up in the Draft to get them...or not.
As it stands now, here are the highest rated senior quarterbacks and wide receivers likely to play in one of the Bowls. We show their projected Draft round in (parenthesis).
Quarterbacks
1. Ryan Tennehill, Texas A&M (1-2)
2. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State, (2-3)
3. Kellen Moore, Boise State, (6-7)
Wide Receivers
1. Kendall Wright, Baylor (1)
2. Michael Floyd, Notre Dame (1-2)
3. Dwight Jones, North Carolina (2-3)
Here's an idea. If the Redskins cannot get Griffin, why not go for his playmaking wide receiver Kendall Wright? Just saying....
** The NFL names the coaching staffs for both sides of the Senior Bowl and for the East-West Shrine Game. Both games are broadcast on the NFL Network.
Point after
Optimum Scouting Draft Rankings, All Positions.
CBSSports.com Draft Rankings.
DC Pro Sports Report Mock Draft tracker.
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General Manager Bruce Allen is always going to prefer deals with veterans over big-money extensions for existing Redskins that was his M.O. in Oakland, and later in Tampa Bay. While every organzation prefers to use the draft to acquire talent because the draft is a vehicle to acquire cheaply that has a lot of upside, the draft is limited in the resources it can provide a team because the picks are finite. For the Redskins to be a truly well run organization under Allen, they are always going to be a veteran team. There's just no way around that. If the Redskins wanted to become a young, hungry team that uses only the draft and bargain basement signings to win games, they would have hired someone from Green Bay or Indianapolis to run their team.
Suffice it to say, no matter how well the Redskins continue to do in the draft, it will be the personnel moves that they make in free agency and via trades (as well as within their own roster) that will determine how successful they will be under this regime. Unfortunately, they have not been all that successful thus far in building with veterans (they've actually been more sucessful in the draft under Shanahan), which is why we haven't seen a meaningful turnaround just yet.
The Washington Redskins will return 37 players under contract next year (this does not include any players signed to futures contracts). This article will analyze those contracts on the offensive side of the ball, identify those players, discuss potential candidates for release, and examine holes within the existing roster.
The Redskins 'Under Contract'
Offensive Skill Talent (unrestricted free agency year): QB John Beck (2013), RB Darrel Young (2014), RB Roy Helu (2015), RB Evan Royster (2015), WR Santana Moss (2014), WR Jabar Gaffney (2013), WR Anthony Armstrong (2014), WR Brandon Banks (2014), WR Leonard Hankerson (2015), WR Niles Paul (2015), WR Aldrick Robinson (2016), TE Chris Cooley (2014), TE Mike Sellers (2015), TE Logan Paulsen (2014)
The biggest issue here is that Fred Davis is a free agent. Santana Moss is also a very obvious candidate for release, while Mike Sellers' retirement (forced or unforced) may well be a formality at this point. Chris Cooley's future is also worth discussing, those my expecation is that he will be back and more productive than last season, though Cooley now has two lost seasons in the last three years after making the pro bowl in consecutive years.
Santana Moss' contract was clearly structured with the idea of him being on the team in 2012 and 2013, and holding essentially a team option for 2014. If the Redskins release Moss this offseason, they can save $6.75 million of his $15.05 million contract, making the 2011 committment a one year/$8.3 million deal. The franchise tender would have cost the Redskins more than that, but would have arguably allocated the cap better. Again though, the expectation when the team signed the deal is that Moss would be back next season, and the only thing that will prevent that is if Moss is believed to be not worth his roster spot anymore. If Moss is released, he will cost $4.33 million on the salary cap for 2013, which is more than he would cost on the cap if the Redskins kept him. If he is released with a June 1st designation, Moss costs $2.17 on the salary cap this year (slightly less than he currently does), but will count another $2.17 million in 2013. Either way, the Redskins still owe $4.33 million on the cap to Moss. If the Redskins keep Moss for 2013, they still owe that cap money, but will also be on the hook for his salary (reported in two different places as $2.6 million or $3.1 million), which would raise their total committment in Moss to $11 million dollars for two seasons. This was not a good contract for the Redskins.
Mike Sellers' cap hit will be just $300,000 whenever he is released. There is no reason to designate him with a June 1, but if they did, the Redskins would be on the hook for $200,000 in 2013 cap room. Who cares? Sellers is due to make $1.045 million next season, meaning the Redskins can save the cost of two late round draft choices or one vet minimum player if they move on without him. With Sellers, this isn't a money issue, it's an issue with a roster spot.
Chris Cooley's contract is a bit confusing. Cooley is owed just over $4.5 million in signing bonus money (which has already been paid to him, just not allocated on the cap) from his 2007 contract extension. He also is owed a roster bonus of $100,000 each of his last two seasons which the Redskins can opt to pay if they release him. Cooley is owed $7.65 million in salary ($7.85 including roster bonuses) over the last two years of the contract, spread pretty evenly. The Redskins can save $1.7 on the cap by releasing Cooley, or they can release him with a June first designation, saving about $4 million, and then would be on the hook for the final $2.27 million or so next season. The Cooley extension was not particularly well structured by Vinny Cerrato, and I think he's likely to be back in 2012.
Offensive Line (unrestricted free agency year): OG Kory Lichtensteiger (2013), OT Trent Williams (2015), OT Jammal Brown (2016), OG Chris Chester (2016), OG Maurice Hurt (2015), OT Willie Smith (2015), Erik Cook (2015)
Left Guard Kory Lichtensteiger's 2-yr contract with the Redskins that he signed in January 2010 has expired, but because Lichtensteiger was not on a team's active roster in 2009, he can be retained by the Redskins as a restricted free agent, and furthermore, remains a rare candidate for a contract extension. When you look at that offensive line situation, you can see that outside of Lichtensteiger, the Redskins have practically no contract issues on the front line. Will Montgomery is an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career, having accrued a season with the Panthers, and now three with the Redskins. He is likely to return.
The bigger issue on the offensive line is that Jammal Brown is an obvious candidate for release, and that it's not inconcievable that the Redskins could look to upgrade Chris Chester if they can find the right opportunity at RG. Chester will certainly be on the team (and probably in the starting lineup) next season, though he's a bit out of place at RG. Chester may end up being the long term solution at left guard if something happens to Lichtensteiger or the Redskins lose him in free agency after this year. He is also a possibility to move to center. Once Brown is gone (if he is gone) the Redskins will have just two OTs under contract: Williams and Smith, and they may have a crisis at the position if they do not already.
Brown will cost $2 million more on the salary cap to release than keep, or the Redskins could use their June 1st designation on him, saving them $2 million on the cap in 2012, but putting the Redskins on the hook for $3.9 million in cap space in 2013. Neither option is particularly harmful if the Redskins decide Brown isn't going to be a part of their future. The Redskins can save $19.25 million on Jammal Brown's $27.5 million contract by releasing him this offseason, which would essentally take his reported $5/27.5 deal and make it a one year/$8.25 million commitment. That is a lot of money for Jammal Brown, sure, but it's also a little less than the Redskins would have paid him if they had slapped the franchise tag on him last season. That is money that a contract savvy team will save when writing deals, and the difference between a contract savvy team and a talent savvy team is that the contract savvy team will find a way to structure the contract so that the team saves money whether the player works out or not, and the talent savvy team will acquire a better starting RT than Jammal Brown.
To be continued tomorrow...the defensive contracts. no comments
Shish! The Washington Redskins have lunch with former Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris and everybody has Morris drawn, quartered hired and changing the Redskins defensive strategies.
It was just lunch, people. The only ones who should be stressed over the event are incumbent coaches Bob Slowic (defensive backs) and Steve Jackson (safeties). I know it would worry me if my boss were having lunch with someone else to discuss my job. That implies that decisions have already been made.
I hope that Executive Vice President Mike Shanahan had the compassion to inform those guys where they stand with the team. Management transparency is hard, but always for the best.
The lunch meeting with Morris did not have to be about a coaching vacancy—although a good interview question might be, "How would you have coached a Pro Bowl performance from Carlos Rogers while he was with Washington?"
Tampa Bay has the fifth pick in the 2012 NFL Draft; that's immediately ahead of the Redskins. So tell me, Raheem, are the Bucs more likely to move up in the Draft order in a grab for Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin 3rd, or to stay put?
Morris left Washington for an interview with the Minnesota Vikings, who have the third pick in the Draft. The Vikings describe the talks as exploratory about a high-level defensive position. There are no, yet, vacancies on Minnesota's coaching staff.
I will bet you a pocket of pennies that Morris visits Cleveland, who holds the fourth pick and are a real threat to grab RG3, for more exploration.
This is all conjecture, of course, but Shanahan had better not fire any coaches before the Draft if he wants to keep secrets from Minnesota, Cleveland or Tampa Bay.
Point after
Our friends at DC Pro Sports Report tracked 41 more Mock Drafts on their board for a total to date of 174 Mocks. The sports writers who do these things see Robert Griffin III more firmly in Cleveland than in Washington. The total mocks that put RG3 in Ashburn dropped to 27 percent from about 34 percent when last I checked. The mockers see Alabama RB Trent Richardson or OK State WR Justin Blackmon falling to Washington. Warren Moon compares Blackmon to Dez Bryant, only better.
Mike Shanahan bargain hunts for running backs. It's how he rolls. I don't see him spending a first round pick on a rusher. A wide-out with playmaker potential is another story.
Like me, perhaps you shook your head when New York Giants receiver Victor Cruz tacked 67 yards to a seven yard catch for a 74-yard score in Last Sunday's showdown against the Dallas Cowboys. The play is a reminder that quarterbacks attempt passes. Receivers must complete them.
How do the Giants find players like Cruz while the Washington Redskins seem flummoxed by the whole process? If you are a Redskins fan, it's enough to know that Vinny Cerrato had free rein to run the team without benefit of Joe Gibb's training wheels or help by a football-knowledgeable owner in 2008 and '09.
Cerrato made poor wide receiver choices in Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly in the 2008 NFL Draft. But, there is more to it than that. The Redskins have struggled to find young wide receiver talent since the end of the Gibbs I era. The Giants and teams like the Steelers made better choices that were immediate hits.
Washington first-round pick Desmond Howard (1992) was a bust as a receiver. He made his name as a special teamer with the Packers. The Redskins signed Howard at the close of the Gibbs I era when Charlie Casserly was the GM subordinate to Gibbs more or less.
Michael Westbrook (First round, 1995), another Casserly pick, never matched his college performance or Draft Day hype as a pro, though he was more productive than Howard was. Rod Gardner (First round, 2001) had near as many touchdowns (22) in fewer seasons as Westbrook did (26). Marty Schottenheimer selected Gardner but was given a single season to work with him.
Who knew we would miss Rod Gardner? Washington's troubles in the passing game stems from its failure to replace Gardner as the No. 2 wide out.
The playmaking receivers who make it big show up early in their NFL career. They are not necessarily first round selectees.
Cruz was an unheralded, undrafted prospect from lightly regarded UMass who blew up as a first year player (In NFL parlance, that means he is in his his second season). New York's Hakeem Nicks was a 2009 first round selectee. Cruz and Nicks combined for 158 receptions, 2692 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Pittsburgh's wide-outs Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown combined for 141 receptions for 2301 and 10 touchdowns. Wallace was a 2009 third round pick. Brown was a 2010 sixth-rounder from Central Michigan.
Philadelphia's Jeremy Maclin (first round, 2009) and DeSean Jackson (second round, 2008) combined for 121 receptions for 1,821 and nine touchdowns. The Redskins bypassed Jackson and Eddie Royal to select Malcolm Kelly. Maclin and especially Jackson's falloff from their 2010 performance, when they scored 16 TDs, is much of the reason why the Eagles missed the playoffs.
Washington's top two wide receivers were 10-year veteran Jabar Gaffney and 11-year vet Santana Moss who together caught 114 receptions for 1,531 yards and nine touchdowns. Moss' skills were in visible decline last season.
Washington has long odds to land Robert Griffin III or Andrew Luck in the 2012 NFL Draft. Landing a playmaking wide-out may be the true goal for the 'Skins.
Here are the take-away points.
1. The top two wide receivers must combine for about 150 receptions for 2,000 yards and 16 touchdowns for a passing offense to excel. Tight ends and backs do not count. It must be the wide-outs.
2. If a wide receiver is going to be a star, he shows sign of it as a first year player, that is, by their second NFL season. Dynamic passing offenses have young wide receivers performing at a high level on their first NFL contract.
3. Teams with stable front offices running a consistent strategy make better wide receiver picks that get off to a fast start.
Bill Parcells famously said, "If I'm going to be asked to cook the meal, I'd like to be able to pick the groceries." Parcells won Super Bowls with the Giants when George Young, New York's 19-year veteran GM, picked the players. Kevin Colbert called the shots in the Steelers front office since 2000. The Steelers made the playoffs in eight of his 11 seasons, winning two Super Bowls along the way.
The Eagles run one of the better front offices in the league. Andy Reid has an outsized role in running that office. It should not surprise you that the Eagles did not fire him. For all of his success, however, Reid has yet to win a Super Bowl. His combined role as de facto GM and head coach conspires against him. Reid's mentor, Mike Holmgren, did not lead Seattle to the Super Bowl until the team forced him to give up his GM role to focus on coaching.
Joe Gibbs was no more successful in returning the Redskins to the Super Bowl than Reid has been in Philly. Coach Mike Shanahan, like Gibbs and Reid, picks the groceries. That's not an ideal front office set up, but it beats Snyderrato any day.
no commentsBuilding a winning culture in the NFL is incredibly difficult, and there are no points for minor accomplishments or for coming close. You either succeed in doing so and get paid handsomely for success, or you find out for yourself why you have entered the only profession where the expectation is that you will get fired. NFL Head Coach is not exactly a thankless task: look at Bill Belichick and Tony Dungy, for example. But it is a job where you probably will not be well-liked in your local market.
In December 2009, the Washington Redskins and Seattle Seahawks fired their hand picked coaches and their general managers, and decided to start again from the ground up. Neither organization blew up it's front office, but personnel guys Vinny Cerrato and Tim Ruskell were sent packing along with head coaches Jim Zorn and Jim Mora Jr. It's not that either roster was particularly talentless: at least eight guys on each of those teams have emerged as starters in other cities; but the vast majority of each team's roster from that 2009 season was not in the NFL in 2011.
What made the situations that Mike Shanahan and Pete Carroll were stepping into unique was that these weren't just building projects: they were tear down projects. The game of football had progressed in such a way that both teams were relying on tenets of football that just didn't lead to winning anymore. These are teams that were running offenses with no vertical elements, defenses that were built to stop the run and not the pass, and had no idea how to build an offensive line.
This is a RHH case study that will examine how each team approached the last two years, will evaluate where they are today, and look at what the future holds. It will not look at the Seahawks as a significantly better team than the Redskins in 2010 simply because they won that NFC West division: in many ways, the Redskins (in their worst year of the Snyder era) were actually a better team. It will grade each building block critically on it's merits and the juncture and context at which it happened. This will be a lengthy post.
2009
The Seahawks were a 5-11 team under Jim Mora in 2009. The Redskins were a 4-12 team under Jim Zorn in 2009. We're essentially looking at two teams starting in the same spot, right? But the deeper we look, the more decieving those looks are.
The 2009 Redskins were not a young team. They were actually a veteran laden team who was incredibly limited in the amount of 25 and under talent it had on the roster. It's four best players under the age of 25 were pro-bowl LB Brian Orakpo, third year LB HB Blades, third year FS LaRon Landry, and second string TE Fred Davis. CB DeAngelo Hall was only 26 and many still had very high hopes for his development. But the majority of the talent on the 2009 Redskins was at or past it's prime. The median age of a Redskins starter in 2009 was 28 years old, the age of RB Clinton Portis (draft year: 2002), DT Albert Haynesworth (2002), or CB Carlos Rogers (2005). That's a rather experienced team.
The Seahawks were a much younger team than the Redskins on average, having an average median age of 27 for a stater. But unlike the Zorn Redskins, the Seahawks were starting young players in their prime who weren't quality NFL starters. The skill players of that Seahawks team stick out in particular because aside from TE John Carlson, these were not drafted/developed Seahawk WRs and RBs. The quarterback was Matt Hasselbeck, who was of course acquired from Green Bay via trade when he came over with Mike Holmgren in 2001. The backfield was Julius Jones (drafted by the Cowboys) and FB Justin Griffith (drafted by the Falcons where he played for Seahawks OC Greg Knapp). The Seahawks' top three receivers were a name bunch, famous only for succeeding elsewhere before being teammates in Seattle: Nate Burleson, TJ Houshmandzadeh, and Deion Branch.
The Seahawks under Holmgren/Ruskell and Mora/Ruskell had no vehicle for offensive player development, which hurt both the offensive line and made them go out and pay big money for skill position guys. They were strong at the linebacker level, and had a budding star on the defensive line in Brandon Mebane. But the secondary was a major issue with all the money the Seahawks had tied up in the underperforming Marcus Trufant. A young corner by the name of Josh Wilson had made some plays that year, but couldn't stop getting torched when opposing offenses picked on him. The Seahawks roster was a little younger, but compared to the Redskins roster, it was a mess. For the Redskins, the problem was age: they had an older roster that was caught up in the vicious cycle of trading draft picks for veteran talent. The Seahawks weren't particularly young, but their young talent wasn't developing unless it was in the defensive front. Neither Mora nor Zorn had been doing the job adequately.
The Tear Down processes
A good rebuilding process can not so much as begin until you tear down the parts that aren't adequate. Carroll and GM Jon Schneider probably gave away more talent via trade than maybe they should have. But the Seahawks looked at their roster, and what Ruskell had built, and they took an interesting approach: they started to take the pieces who had underperformed under Mora and trade them away or just get rid of them entirely. What made the Seahawks' work so interesting is that they didn't start and end the tear down in February 2010. They continued to move people out until the middle of the season.
They let Knapp go and hired Jeremy Bates at offensive coordinator. They retained defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who the new management decided would not be held responsible for the lack of development of players. To an extent, Bradley has been running the kind of defense preferred by Carroll and Schneider, but it's Bradley -- a Mora holdover -- who calls the plays in this defense. Patrick Kerney didn't want to be part of the rebuilding process, he retired. Schneider traded the last year of Josh Wilson's rookie contract to the Baltimore Ravens for a draft pick. The young pass rushing specialist Darryl Tapp was swapped to Philadelphia for pass rusher (and former LB) Chris Clemons. FS Deon Grant was not retained. Maybe most controversially, the Seahawks opted to retain Trufant and his large contract despite his struggles in 2009. Burleson signed with the Detroit Lions in free agency. They traded durable starting LG Rob Sims to the Lions for a fifth round pick. They did not retain 16 game starter RT Ray Willis.
The Seahawks did not stop making moves during the season. TJ Houshmandzadeh was released during the preseason, in the shocking move of the season. Deion Branch got traded to the New England Patriots at the trade deadline. Julius Jones was moved to the Saints when they ran into injury problems early in the season. And DE Lawrence Jackson (who played for Carroll at USC) was released by the Seahawks in the middle of Carroll's first season, where Detroit grabbed him off waivers. The damage? 6 players who the Seahawks parted ways with during this season alone ended up as starters elsewhere in the NFL. That's probably more than they intended. Rebuilding teams tend to error though on the side of moving too many parts of the old culture than keeping too many parts.
The Redskins had a three day period in February 2010 where they released unwanted players. Following the expected retirement of LT Chris Samuels, they cut the following veterans: DT Corneilius Griffin, RB Rock Cartwright, RB Ladell Betts, CB Fred Smoot, RG Randy Thomas, RB Marcus Mason, WR Antwaan Randle El, and QB Todd Collins (that's just two cuts on the defensive side). Of that list of 8, only Randle El, Collins, and Cartwright ever appeared in another NFL game, and only Rock Cartwright is still an active NFL player as we speak. So far, so good.
The Redskins continued to work on trades for a number of the players which Mike Shanahan had no use for, coming to terms on trades for QB Jason Campbell to Oakland on draft day, and CB Justin Tryon to the Colts on the eve of the season, receiving a 2011 7th rounder and a 2012 4th rounder for their troubles. And that was it. Wait, that was it? The epic teardown of the awful Cerrato/Zorn roster involved changing...ten players? Well, there were the cases of FB Eddie Williams, G Edwin Williams (not the same person) and G Chad Rinehart, who all went on to be starters elsewhere, after failing to make the 2010 Redskins in training camp. And WR Devin Thomas lost the kick returning job to UDFA Brandon Banks, getting released in the process. But yeah, that looks like it. After hearing how awful the roster was that the Shanahan's acquired, their sweeping changes amounted to the decision to get rid of ten players, half of which went on to play elsewhere.
Conclusion: The Redskins had a much better roster when they changed coaches than the Seahawks did. Much older, but much better.
2010 Acquisitions
The Seattle Seahawks needed a talent infusion as much as any team in the league. They had no skill talent. They had little talent in the defensive secondary, and traded one of the young pieces they had. But the Seahawks were in a careful teardown mode throughout the 2010 offseason. Having two first round picks and a major need at quarterback (Matt Hasselbeck was entering the last year of his deal and it was rumored that Carroll would not bring him back), the Seahawks used those picks on LT Russell Okung and FS Earl Thomas. In the second round, they would select WR Golden Tate. To solve their quarterback need they traded a third round pick to the San Diego Chargers for backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst. They also signed six offensive lineman with a zone background as part of a total makeover: Tyler Polumbus, Mike Gibson, Chester Pitts, Ben Hamilton, Stacey Andrews, and William Robinson from the Redskins.
The Seahawks signed Lawyer Milloy, who once played with Carroll when he coached the New England Patriots. During the season, they traded a fourth round pick for Bills RB Marshawn Lynch. They traded a fifth round pick for RB Leon Washington, who they would use as a kick returning specialist. They traded a fourth round pick for former USC RB LenDale White, who Carroll ended up releasing before he ever played a game. Their first year free agent signings were incredibly targeted, guys that had no market: Milloy, former Carroll receiver WR Mike Williams, WR Ruvell Martin who had played for Schneider in Green Bay, TE Chris Baker from the Jets, DE Raheem Brock of the Colts, and they stuck their franchise tag on K Olindo Mare. They picked up DE Kentwan Balmer from the 49ers off of waivers, who started 11 games.
The Seahawks' offensive additions largely failed in 2010, something that Carroll attributed to OC Jeremy Bates, who he fired at the conclusion of the season despite a great gameplan that helped to upset the Saints in the Wild Card round. WR Mike Williams had a good season and earned himself an extension from Carroll. Lynch started slow, but established himself as a featured back in the offense. But Tate didn't excel as a rookie and Charlie Whitehurst really bombed in the preseason and failed to wrest the starting quarterback position from Hasselbeck, which made the trade for him and subsequent one year contract extension look kind of silly in retrospect. White never made it to the season. Washington never played much offense. Martin and Baker were just kind of there. None of the offensive line signings panned out.
The Seahawks got good seasons from RT Sean Locklear and waiver WR pickup Brandon Stokely, but both left in free agency after the 2010 season and signed with Washington (though Stokely never officially signed the contract he agreed to). Defensively, Clemons was a sack master and a great no-cost pickup by Schneider. LB David Hawthorne had another great season, as did Brock and Mebane and the developing Red Bryant, a Ruskell pick who found his home at defensive end under Carroll/Bradley. The secondary had another rough season as Wilson enjoyed a career year for the Ravens. Milloy was a shell of his former self, as was Trufant. Earl Thomas had a decent campaign to put himself in defensive rookie of the year consideration, but he didn't have a whole lot of help.
Like the Seahawks, the Redskins also traded draft picks to solve their quarterback issue. Washington dealt the second round pick and a fourth round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for Donovan McNabb. Unlike Whitehurst, there was little doubt that this trade would end with the Redskins solving their QB issue for a couple years, and not at all with him losing playing time to another veteran. But the Redskins also added OT Jammal Brown via trade, making him a right tackle. In doing the McNabb and Brown trades, the Redskins had managed to trade away the middle of their 2011 along with their 2010 second rounder for those two veterans. Beyond that, they retained three of Zorn's lineman: Will Montgomery, Mike Williams, and Derrick Dockery, while adding some guys with zone blocking experience in Artis Hicks and Kory Lichtensteiger. The plan was for the Redskins OL to be about half retained Zorn guys (Rabach, Montgomery, M. Williams, Dockery), and half new guys (T. Williams, Brown, Lichtenstiger, Hicks). This was similar to the plan the Seahawks had to retain three guys, but the main difference being that the Redskins actually gave out new contracts to most of the retained Zorn era lineman (Williams, Rabach, Montgomery).
The Redskins showed during their draft they would value the offensive line, and in trades they valued the offensive line, but I guess they thought most of their offensive lineman of the future were already on the roster. Kory Lichtenstieger replaced Derrick Dockery early in the season, but other than that, the 2010 OL resembled the 2009 OL after Samuels' injury.
The Redskins also retained Santana Moss at wide receiver, pairing him with 40 year old Joey Galloway, and 29 year old Roydell Williams, though it was a Zorn practice squader (Anthony Armstrong) who actually won the no. 2 receiver position. Like the Seahawks, the Redskins went the veteran route at running back, making moves to get Larry Johnson and Willie Parker (and eventually, Ryan Torain) to go along with 29 year old Clinton Portis.
The strategies employed for building the offenses in year one by the Seahawks and Redskins were incredibly comparable. Defensively, the Seahawks went through an equally significant makeover while keeping the defensive coaching staff largely in place. The Redskins hired a new defensive coordinator, but they mostly kept all the personnel in place from 2009. Major additions for the Redskins on defense included Ma'ake Kemoeatu at NT, Vonnie Holliday at DE, and Adam Carriker at DE. The Redskins pretty much went forward without changing defensive personnel at all.
Neither the Redskins or Seahawks succeeded on their offensive moves. The Redskins risked draft picks, and were not rewarded. The Seahawks risked significantly less, and had one of the worst offenses in football in 2010. And without any meaningful additions, the 2009 Redskins defense became just a disappointing version of itself in 2010. The Seahawks defense was also pretty bad in 2010, though it succeeded in developing a number of young players that would be the foundation of it's efforts in 2011.
2011 Acquisitions
Carroll and Schneider knew that despite building a team that won it's division in 2010, they did not build a team that was particularly good on either side of the ball. The Seahawks had enjoyed a pretty good season as an organization in 2010, but for it to be a great year, they couldn't justify that their offensive personnel moves largely failed, and so spectacularly that it became impractical to retain the highly regarded young Bates after just one season. The hire they made to right the ship was Darrell Bevell, former OC of the Vikings. As for the Redskins, they lost their TE coach Jon Embree to become the head coach of the University of Colorado. The Redskins coaching staff was otherwise retained.
The focus of offseason two for the Seahawks (with the skill positions and the defensive line being vastly improved in offseason one) was the rest of the offensive line and the cornerback position. Here is where the Seahawks were wildly successful. They added the versatile Alan Branch to the defensive line mix, replacing Colin Cole. In 2010, the Seahawks spent much of the season relying on the coverage abilities of rookie CBs Walter Thurmond and Nate Ness. In 2011, the Seahawks never shied away from starting corners with limited experience, playing 5th round rookie Richard Sherman and former practice squader Brandon Browner as the starting corners. They played so well in the preseason that the Seahawks felt comfortable enough trading former first rounder Kelly Jennings (on a one year contract) to Cincinnati. Sherman has been one of the best corners in football this season. Behind the abilites of Sherman and Browner, and the development of Earl Thomas into a pro bowler, the Seahawks produced one of the best defensive units in the game this year, one that has strength and depth at all 11 positions.
The offensive line of the Seahawks is still very much of a disaster zone due to injury, but the Seahawks changed the direction of it's coaching: now under former Raiders coach Tom Cable, who brought LG Robert Gallery with him. The Seahawks confirmed the importance of offensive line to them by drafting RT James Carpenter (widely considered a reach) in the first round. They added John Moffitt in the third round, installing him at RG. Max Ungar, the tenured Seahawk of the bunch, because the unit's cornerstone under Cable at Center. And while Russell Okung has yet to have a healthy year at LT, he has a lot of really good tape in his first two years. This unit has been built, now it just needs health. And the Seahawks managed to bring free agent QB Tarvaris Jackson over with Bevell, improving on Matt Hasselbeck's 2010 production in the process.
The Redskins were unable to address questions on their offensive line in 2011, and enter 2012 with the same questions. Trent Williams' ability to play games has remained inconsistent, thanks to a high ankle sprain and a suspension for an illegal substance. The Redskins lost Kory Lichtenstiger and Jammal Brown to injuries at different points this season, which was unfortunate. They made a signing to shore up the disaster RG position of the last two years, and merely by playing every snap this season at RG, Chris Chester filled the role for the Redskins. As a unit, this group still has questions. We don't know who the RT will be next year. Will Montgomery is now a free agent. Lichtenstieger is coming off a serious injury. The Redskins have failed to solidify their OL in the first two years, a stated goal of the Shanahan/Forester offensive group.
Conclusions
The Redskins in two seasons have managed to replace a number of Zorn era Redskins: Carlos Rogers has been replaced by Josh Wilson in free agency, Andre Carter has been replaced by Ryan Kerrigan in the draft, Albert Haynesworth has been replaced by Barry Cofield through free agency, Chris Samuels has been replaced by Trent Williams in the draft, O.J. Atogwe came in through free agency replacing Kareem Moore, DeJon Gomes became the new Chris Horton, Willie Smith the new Stephon Heyer, Derrick Dockery became Kory Lichtensteiger, Chris Cooley and Fred Davis have switched roles, Jabar Gaffney came over in a trade to replace Antwaan Randle El, and the RB position has received a total facelift, which is the one thing we all knew we would get with the Shanahans.
But what the Redskins have failed to change through rebuilding -- and what the Seahawks have succeeded at -- is changing the fundamental pieces of the who the Redskins were and are. The veteran leader Jason Campbell, who became Donovan McNabb, and then just sort of disappeared back into a pair of 2012 future draft choices. The Redskins got nothing out of the Albert Haynesworth contract but a few memorable plays and a 5th round pick. DeAngelo Hall and Santana Moss became Captains, and lead the team the last two years in drawing 15 yard penalty flags. The Cerrato/Zorn Redskins have mostly turned into late round picks, but the memories of the failures have not been replaced by memories of successes.
The Seahawks fans have those memories of recent successes. They are defined by physical Marshawn Lynch runs, strong defensive front stuffs, big physical corners, and a star safety. Even though they had no weakness at wide receiver, the Seahawks in 2011 were led in receiving by a priority undrafted rookie free agent, Doug Baldwin. The Redskins have similar successes in the defensive front to point to, but are mostly defined by London Fletcher pro bowl snubs, and drama involving LaRon Landry's health.
There is no question from a roster standpoint, the Seahawks are ahead of the Redskins and have done a better job over the last two years, despite starting with less on the roster (though far more in terms of draft picks). However, despite maybe not being the "winners" of this rebuilding comparision, the Redskins do have a trump card. And thats that as much as the Seahawks have going right for them right now, they might not actually be a better team than the Redskins.
The Seahawks may be ahead of the Redskin in terms of the contribution of their young talent, but while young talent offers you all the promise in the world, it is only that: promise. The Redskins aren't a great team. But on offense in particular, at least one stat (DVOA) suggests that while the Redskins might not have the passing offense or the rushing offense of the Seahawks after two seasons, they rate higher on offense. The reason? Fewer presnap penalties and stronger defensive opponents. The Redskins have improved on offense, if not in talent, then in on-the-field production. Finding a quarterback that can curb the turnovers should be worth about a win to both the Redskins and the Seahawks.
Despite the worst quarterback play since 2003, the Redskins offense is back on the rise because of the strongest production by their running game since 2008. And while the Redskins fans might not have classic Marshawn Lynch runs to hang their hat on, there will always be the 3rd and 3 toss play where Roy Helu's hurdle over Roy Lewis...of the Seahawks.
The Seahawks have not been a measurably better team than the Redskins over the last two years. They have won more games because they enjoy one of the strongest homefield advantages in all of sports, and the Redskins enjoy one of the weakest. There is no question that Mike Shanahan will have to win more games, particularly at home, to keep his job beyond 2012. But Carroll is likely to be in the same situation despite his 2010 division title. Building a team that wins consistently isn't easy, and nothing Shanahan accomplished with the Broncos, nor anything Carroll accomplished at USC really matters now. All that matters is these two rosters, these two coaching staffs, and these two teams trying to make the playoffs in 2012. no comments
Closing moments of Dallas Cowboys 31-14 loss to the New York Giants to fall to third place in the NFC East. This picture speaks for itself. no comments
