Robert Griffin III has been the best thing to come to the Washington Redskins in a long time.  But as we watch the second half of his rookie campaign, we must be careful not to give him too many accolades too quickly.

We won't know until this time next year whether the Redskins coaches have done a great job protecting him from the complexity of NFL defensive schemes, or if their control-based, limited offense is holding back the best weapon in Washington sports history.  But in the doubt comes a lesson: if Griffin is expected to deliver too much too soon, that the warning signs of an impending collapse are already there.

It's entirely on Mike Shanahan to get this one right: it will be the only thing that determines if he has a job with the Redskins next year.  If Griffin is being held back, he has to cut him loose.  If he's protected him to this point, then he has to stay the course and handle the criticisms of his coaching methods in stride.

Because the facts about Griffin's statistical performance to date paint a very mixed picture.  Griffin ranks sixth in the league according to the Pro Football Focus Grades, and tenth according to game film-adjusted Total QBR.  But the further you get away from comprehensive grades that take the whole operation into account and into raw statistics, Griffin's performance begins to look a little rocky (albeit still fantastic for a rookie).  His completion percentage and yards per attempt, which both led the NFL three weeks ago, have fallen back to earth.  Griffin isn't quite even average (0.0%) in passing DVOA this season, a mark which Jason Campbell achieved three separate times in his career.  Griffin's sack rate on the season still sits above 7.0%.

In the context of grading a rookie, none of this should raise red flags.  But it's worth pointing out that in a lot of passing metrics (and some rushing metrics), Griffin is performing closer to the level of Russell Wilson, who was picked two and a half rounds later, than he is to Andrew Luck, who went with the top overall pick.  Griffin's season has still been exceptional in so many ways, if not "three first round picks" exceptionial.

Furthermore, in future seasons, the shift in the complexity of the college game is creating a world where highly drafted quarterbacks come to the league with NFL-ready skill sets.  This obviously benefitted Griffin and Luck a lot, as it did for Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Matt Ryan before them.  But it will also benefit the rookies that come after Griffin and Luck to a much greater degree.  And when you look at the careers of those rookie sensations, it's been a mixed bag, at best.

If the last three games end up being the weakest three games of Robert Griffin's Redskins career, he'll end the season as an ROY candidate, and his career as a hall of famer.  But if they become a trend in his production, the Redskins are going to need to improve the team considerably in order to win with him.

Hog Heaven wracks its brain to recall when a pro team named new team captains mid-season. Oh yeah. We've never seen this before. Like, never...in the history of Earth.

I am surprised that the professional class didn't dig deeper into news that the Redskins named Robert Griffin III, Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield as "additional" team captains.

I am 100 percent certain I read somewhere that DeAngelo Hall is (or was) a team captain. D.Hall's name wasn't mentioned in any of the press clippings about the new captains. The silence is deafening, and it speaks volumes if Hall has been shoved aside for players with genuine leadership qualities. 

That would be impressive enough if Coach Shanahan did it, and all the more so if the players did it on their own.

Hall talks a good game and says the right things. That makes one a spokesman, not a leader. When real team leaders are pulling you off game officials to keep you from hurting the team more, well ... must I say more? 

There's a connection. I'm sure of it. Good employers never speak of these things in public.

Redskins fans have had it to here with Hall. Few fans would mourn or miss him if the Redskins cut ties to him after the last game.

Eagles at Redskins – Stats worth watching

Hog Heaven pays attention to three stats when it comes to projecting Redskins performance in live games.

QB Passer Rating Differential – Cold Hard Football Facts insists this is the single best predictor of the outcome of games.

Redskins QBR 91.9, Opponents 95.4, Diff -3.5
Eagles QBR 79.7, Opponents 85.4, Diff -5.7

The negative differential explains in a nutshell a pair of 3-6 teams. When Washington gets in the positive range, they will win titles. Fos Sunday's game, they have to be less bad than Philadelphia. Robert Griffin III alone cannot balance out a flawed team any better than Tony Romo can.  

The Eagles could not protect Michael Vick from assault in every game. The result has been high turnover and poor performance. Rookie Nick Foles entered in place of Vick against Dallas and had a better performance. It was a small sample size. As my friend Forrest Gump would say, Foles is like a box or chocolate. You never know what you're going to get.

The Eagles would have us believe that Vick will be out. The Redskins don't do well against quarterback's they've never seen before. Still, we think the advantage goes to the Redskins on this one.

Turnover Differential

This is one of two stats that Richie Pettibon says are the only one he pays attention to.

Redskins +6
Eagles -11

Philly's turnover issue goes hand-in-hand with quarterback performance. Nick Foles will help the Iggles a lot if he protects the ball as well as RGIII does. Until we see Foles do it, lets give the advantage to Washington.

Defensive Third Downs Allowed

Redskins – 49/112, 43.8%
Eagles – 40/114, 35.1%

The Redskins have trouble getting opponents off the field. Teams are already thinking they can contain RGIII on the sideline via time of possession. The maligned Philly defense, now led by ex-Redskins DB Todd Bowles, is better at this by far. Advantage; Eagles.

Superior quarterback play and turnover differential will carry Washington to a narrow win. New factors -- Brandon Meriweather for the Redskins, Foles for the Eagles -- also point to Washington. My Magic 8 Ball says Redskins .. Without a doubt.

Redskins 30, Eagles 28. Total - 58. (If in Vegas, take the Eagles and the points, but you didn't read that here.)
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I will broadcast my fan reaction and comments during the game by PC again, thanks to the technomagic of LetMeHearYa.com. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET. Join me at 12:55 PM. Don't be alarmed if there are moments of silence at points. I'm watching the game just like you. I am not doing an audio rebroadcast or any of the stuff the NFL says not to do in that legal stuff on TV. A man is entitled to his opinion. I'm sharing mine.

Point your PC or other device to my LetMeHearYa Profile page, click a few buttons and we are golden.

HAIL
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The Redskins will beat the Eagles this Sunday, says Thomas Jackson, one of our oldest blogging friends, who covers Philadelphia on Eagles Eye blog. His description of what ails the Eagles will sound very familiar to Redskins fans.

Redskins-Eagles after the Gibbs I era has not been a happy affair for Washingtonians. It wasn't that easy even then. Washington has never beaten a Michael Vick-quarterbacked team when Vick played a complete game. Vick looks to be OUT against the Redskins after suffering a traumatic brain injury against Dallas last weekend. Nick Foles will start in his place. Problem is that the Redskins are 1-7 against rookie quarterbacks, and they have no home field advantage in the Age of the Shanaclan.

The 'Skins are 3½ favorites over the Iggles. Hog Heaven dares not take a win for granted.  Washington underwhelmed against the Rams, and played stupidly against the Panthers. Teams like Philadelphia and Cleveland fill us with dread. My Magic 8 Ball says the Redskins will beat the Eagles "without a doubt."

Better to go to Eagles Eye for answers. I like the part where Eagles Eye thinks the Redskins may challenge for a wild card. Read on.

RHH: I picked the Eagles for Beast of the East in a story for This Given Sunday. How did this go so horribly wrong?

Anthony, it really all goes back to something you wisely stated in September of 2011---"You can't buy a championship in the NFL..." The big free agent spending the Eagles have done over the past two seasons could not negate some fundamental problems in scheme and communication on the defensive side of the ball. Combine that with the loss of All-Pro LT Jason Peters (Achilles tendon) in the offseason, and then the loss of center Jason Kelce (ACL) and RT Todd Herremans (ankle)  during the season, and the offensive line collapsed...resulting in the ultimate TKO of Michael Vick, who was simply pounded into turnovers and physical submission over the course of 9 games.

RHH: Give me the name of a rising star that Redskins fans have never heard of. Explain...

One bright spot has been the emergence of rookie Bryce Brown, a big running back at 6-0, 223, who was drafted as a project out of Kansas State in the 7th round. Brown barely played at all his last two seasons in college due to a variety of personal reasons. But, he has emerged as the 2-back the Eagles have been seeking for a long time. Brown will get between 5 and 9 carries against the Redskins, and he'll be looking to burst between the tackles and then sprint past the second level. He's a very good pass-pro blocker, too. He's opened some eyes in Philly as the 1-2 punch the Eagles have needed behind Shady McCoy.

Note: Bryce Brown wears jersey No. 34.

RHH: Some Philly reports have Kyle Shanahan on the short list of potential replacement for Reid. How does that strike you?

I think the Kyle Shanahan to Philly rumor is interesting... Kyle would have the proven ability to make better use of the offensive pieces the Eagles already have. I think he'd want the running game to be the team's driving offensive force. A lot of fans in Philly would like that. I also think he would modify the defense to more of a 3-4 look...many fans would love that. What I don't know about Kyle is his ability or willingness to deal with the relentless pressures of the Philly media. This town eats coaches for breakfast.

Note: Redskins fans would wish Kyle every success that he has so far enjoyed here.

RHH: How will the Eagles attack the Redskins defense?

Tentatively at first, they're going with a rookie QB in Nick Foles, a 3rd-round pick out of Arizona, 6-6, 243, and this is Foles' first start. I think they'll start with a lot of handoffs to McCoy, screens to their tight ends, and some quick-hit slants to DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. I think they want Foles to stick to that kind of script until they get a feel for just how much they can trust their offensive line, which right now is a patchwork mess.

If Foles can absorb the different looks the Redskins will be giving him, and if he can get any kind of decent protection in the gun, they will eventually open up the game plan. Foles has a strong arm and a decent release and can go deep to Jackson and Maclin. He also has a large target in wideout Riley Cooper (6-4, 3rd year, Florida) who will be trying to get open deep.

(RHH note: Will Reid run a read-option offense to help his rookie QB? Danger, Will Robinson. Danger.)

RHH: How should the Redskins attack the Eagles defense?

Assuming RGIII has Shanny's blessing to do whatever he wants (including pass) from the option, I honestly think the Redskins should establish the run early, especially with Alfred Morris who I think is ideally suited to find the holes in the Eagles' "over defense nine technique". If the 'Skins establish the running game, they can play-action all day long against the Eagles' secondary, who have been prone to bite on the double-move all season long.

If the game is close late in the 3rd or 4th quarters, the Eagles should be tired from chasing Morris and Griffin. The Eagles have not shown they are a good tackling team, either. They have some deficiencies of depth at the safety and linebacker positions, and a rookie (Brandon Boykin) playing the nickel corner. RGIII will have the edge with misdirection, play-action and the option if this game stays close to the end. In nearly every one of their 6 losses this season, the Eagles have lost or blown the game late in the second half.

RHH: Your prediction for the game, and for the division order of finish.

I predict the 'Skins prevail in this one, 28-14.... and all hell breaks loose in Philly with demands for Andy Reid's resignation. (Yeah, and all hell will break loose around here if Washington loses.)

I predict the 2012 order of finish in the NFC East as: Giants, Redskins, Cowboys, Eagles...  Hopefully, Redskins sneak into a Wild Card.
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Hog Heaven has followed Tom Jackson for years.  He is an Eagles fan, but unsparing in writing what's good and bad about his team. I've never seen him more discouraged about Philadelphia. It does seem an era is ending up there. For all we know, Reid is a potential future head coach of the Redskins. He owes us something for the McNabb swindle.

For genuine insight on the Philadelphia Eagles, visit Eagles Eye Blog often.

Images:
Redskins vs. Eagles found here.
Photoshopped Daniel Snyder from here.
Nick Foles, University of Arizona from here.
Alfred Morris, found here.

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1. Did not fire Jim Haslett
We must have a very serious discussion about Redskins DC Jim Haslett at the end of the season, because that's the right time to make off-season moves.  Whatever frustrated fans think of Haslett for the surprising disappearance of Washington's pass rush, releasing him now would doom the entire defense. Haslett knows more about the defensive scheme than anyone on the staff, or any outsider they could hire mid-season.

New people bring new ideas about scheme and use of players. It takes a full off-season and regular season to perfect it. That's why off-seasons exist. There's a transition cost to changing coaches that must be paid.

Many fans who mouthed off about firing Haslett saw Raheem Morris as his ready-made replacement. Indeed, local media speculated that Morris was brought in as a future replacement. Well, slow down, cowboy. There are many questions about Morris.

What's the worst performing part of Washington's defense? You are correct, the secondary. Who coaches the secondary? Coach Morris. Why was Morris available for hire? Because he could not guide his Buccaneers team out of a 10-game slump at the end of 2011. A former college coach is doing better.

Hog Heaven isn't calling Morris a bad hire, but the jury is out. Washington is paying the transition cost for hiring Morris to replace Stephen Jackson. There is scant evidence, so far, that Morris can cure what ails the defense.

2. Did not move DeAngelo Hall to safety
Hog Heaven does not consider D.Hall a bust. Indeed, he does many things well when used properly. One could say the same of Rex Grossman. We just think Hall is over paid for the value he brings.

One of the advantages of moving Hall to nickel-back is reducing his exposure in coverage. He can make the jams near the line, a theoretical strength. Moving Hall to free safety would be bad on two counts.

First, it would expose weaknesses in his coverage skills. Opposing quarterbacks already target him wherever he's playing. They know that challenging Hall is a high risk, high reward thing. He might jump the play and force a turnover. He is just as likely to be badly burned by a speedy deep threat. QBs do not take such a chance with Ed Reed. They would drool over Hall.

Second, changing positions is not easy. Two words – Niles Paul. Paul is struggling to convert to tight end from wide receiver. Talent may be a question, but he had a full off-season to prepare and remains on the learning curve well into the regular season. Yes, it's that transition cost bugaboo rearing its head again.

Ronde Barber plays free safety for the Buccaneers. But, Barber is both more talented and football smarter than Hall, and he is making a change the Buccaneers have thought about for two years. Off-season moves are best made in the off-season.

The late, great Sean Taylor struggled at free safety until 2007 when he showed Pro Bowl form. The right answer for the Redskins is for safeties on the roster to both play better and get healthier (Looking at you, Brandon Meriweather).

3. Did not revert to the 4-3 defense
Ah, fans and owners, always expecting instant results. The noise level about a return to Washington's traditional 4-3 defense reached a peak after the stupid performance against Carolina. The Redskins have the opposite problem now than in 2010 when they converted to the 3-4. Then, they didn't have all the pieces to run the 3-4. Now, they don't have the parts to run the 4-3.

The 4-3 defensive alignment is so 1980ish when the NFL was playing "old man football." I love old man football, but then, I'm an old man. That old school, run oriented, snot-knocking style is real football, and I remember walking in my bare feet from my log cabin to the stadium to watch Nagurski, Brown and Riggins play.

Teams that ran the ball and stopped the run won titles in those golden olden days. The Jacksonville Jaguars ran the ball last year. I didn't see them in the Super Bowl. I saw the Giants and Patriots in the Super Bowl. Both teams ran poorly but passed well.  

21st Century football is all about passing the ball in more creative ways. The quarterbacks that are changing the game are young players who entered the league since Sam Bradford. They are big. They are mobile. Some of them might run on designed plays. They throw to multiple set receivers in spread formations. The 3-4 is best suited to counter that.

Albert Haynesworth could have made the 4-3 work, if he wanted to. He's the D-lineman you need. Haynesworth doesn't live here anymore. That's the point. We don't have 4-3 players.

4. Did not fire Bruce Allen for a "real personnel guy"
Fans are not impressed with the depth they see on the current roster and voiced that with calls to replace Allen with somebody, anybody, to be a counterweight to Mike Shanahan on roster calls. Hog Heaven is pleased with Shanahan's front office moves since his arrival in 2010 – um, except for that whole quarterback thing. Robert Griffin III is Shanahan's fourth quarterback, but he is the first who is better than Jason Campbell is.

Shanahan and Allen avoid overpaying free agents. Most of their draft picks are developing into contributors, if not starters. We really need more from Leonard Hankerson, with Pierre Garcon's injury, but Hank was a third-round Draft pick whose flaws were known. I expected little from Josh Morgan. He plays well for a guy who was signed for depth. Washington is playing a lot of depth guys. You can't blame Shanahan for Pierre Garcon's toe injury.

General Managers arise through scouting ranks or as contract guys. Bruce Allen is a contract guy. The Redskins always had competent talent evaluators. We know this based on the number of ex-Redskins who play in the Super Bowl for other teams.

In a famous TV rant against Daniel Snyder, Jimmy Johnson told us the Redskins have good scouts, but "nobody listens to them." I really wished the professional media class pursued that when it was said. If nothing else, Shanahan seems to listen to Morocco Brown and Scott Campbell, both are directors of pro personnel, than the prior regime.

In the cases where GMs are counterweights to head coaches on roster decisions, you find football smart owners capable of breaking the tie. "Football smart" and "owner" is an oxy-moron in 25 of 32 cases. It does make the point that, for the Redskins to be a Super Bowl contender, Daniel Snyder must become a Super Bowl caliber owner.

Yes, he helped the team by backing away from management. But that's a do-no-harm approach. It's not enough to win titles. Snyder has to be the counter to his head coach whoever he is. That means he has to know enough about building a team to own the strategy to get it done, and smart enough to stay out of the way of competent executives who are doing it.

It takes real GMs 15 years to navigate that career path. (Coaching does not build those skills). Mr. Snyder is in his 13th year of ownership. He should be getting close by now.

5. Did not call the Eagles game a "must win" game

Coach Mike done gone and temporarily lost his mind after that beatdown by the Steelers. Coaches never call any, ordinary, everyday, regular season game must win, because they are all must win. Are there any optional win games? No sir. Where are you if you lose a must win game against a one-win team? In Washington, of course, where the Redskins have a habit of losing to bottom-feeders.

The point is that the Redskins could lose to the Panthers and make up ground on division rivals who lose their own must win games. Of course, you should beat the beatable teams on your schedule, and kick teams when they are down.

The Philadelphia Eagles are down. They are starting a rookie quarterback. Their O-line is decimated. Their coach is on the short-list of potential future Redskins head coach. Their defense is underperforming. This is a must win, should win, ought to win, game against a desperate team fighting to stay out of division fourth-place. I like our chances.   

Images:
Jim Haslett – December 7, 2008 - Source: Donald Miralle/Getty Images North America.
DeAngelo Hall – October 27, 2012 - Source: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America.
Neal Olkewicz – Redskins.com.
Daniel Snyder, Mike Shanahan, Bruce Allen – January 5, 2010 - Source: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images North America.
London Fletcher, Jeremy Maclin – November 28, 2009 - Source: Al Bello/Getty Images North America.

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The Washington Redskins gained ground on the Eagles and Giants just by staying home last Sunday. To keep gaining ground, Washington has the navigate the second hardest schedule within the Beast to make the playoffs. 

The Giants have the tougher road. They not only play tougher opponents by virtue of their Super Bowl win, but their schedule is back-loaded with games against the Packers, Falcons, Ravens and improving Saints. However, the Giants are the only Beast team with a positive point differential compared to their opponents.

The Cowboys are the opposite of the Giants. Their tough games are already behind them. The Steelers are the lone winning team left on their schedule. Cowboys' opponents have a .397 win percentage and allowed a combined 139 more points than they have scored.

We'll have more on the Eagles, our next opponent, later this week. For now, Hog Heaven will paraphrase Forrest Gump and say, the Eagles are like a box of chocolate. You never know what you are going to get.

You math lovers can check the tables at the end of this story for the details. 

Redskins needed the must-win BYE

The BYE could not have come at a better time for the Washington Redskins. Everyone around here hyperventilated over two tough losses to against the Giants and the Steelers, and a stupid one against the Panthers. 

The Redskins of late have performed exactly like the team we knew them to be – young, with a lot of injured starters. No responsible sportswriter or stat house projected Washington for better than division fourth-place. Even with the failure to finish against the Giants, and the failure to show up against the Panthers, what's changed, really?

The Redskins were always about 2013 and beyond.

And really, Coach Shanny, isn't every game a must-win game? There is no more important must-win game than the next one you play.

Hog Heaven told you last September that no Beast team would win 10 games this year. A glance at the schedule should have told those sports talk radio hosts that. So lets not freak out yet. 

Opponent toughness by Beast team

Redskins

And here's the overall opponent record for the rest of the Beast.

Redskins fans have mood swings that make PMS seem stable in comparison.  One day, we are ready to fire everyone for this mess.  The next day "really, if we beat the Eagles and the Cowboys over the next 2 weeks we could be in it again?"

I mean the fact that Banks is still on the team given his horrific performance this year just shows how slow the coaches react.  On the other hand, rookies and second year players will get better - over the next 2 years.  NOT over the bye week.  And they wont get better with this coaching staff that is enamored by fancy play calls and formations over developing players in the fundamentals of catching, running routes, blocking, tackling, and covering receivers.