When I gave up my Redskins season tickets, I transferred some of those dollars on Navy games in nearby Annapolis. I must say, the Midshipmen do it up right.

The Navy ticket office send me these appeals to send a Midshipman or enlisted person to a Bowl game. I usually help a little, this time by sharing the graphic with the details along with a little change I will send.

It's not what's on the table that makes Thanksgiving great. It's who's sitting there.

Whatever you do, where ever you go, whom ever you are with, may you have a Happy and Safe Thanksgiving.

HTTR

Hog Heaven thinks there are three stats to worth watching in pro football. They are:

1.       QB Passer Rating Differential

2.       Turnover Differential

3.       Defensive Third Down Conversions Allowed

Those stats led us to project a narrow win over the Eagles last Sunday. Boy, were we wrong, in a good way.

The Passer Rating between Robert Griffin III and Nick Foles was laughably different (158.3 vs. 40.4). The Redskins forced three turnovers, the Eagles none. For once, Washington did a better job on third down stops (36% allowed) than the opponent (45% allowed).

Philadelphia is unraveling before our eyes. It's hard to watch a proud franchise go through that. Most Hog Heaven readers do not share the sympathy. The Dallas Cowboys are not unraveling. They are a more severe test for the Washington RGIIIs, for what would the 'Skins be without RGIII.

What do the three stats worth watching signal for Redskins at Cowboys tomorrow afternoon?

QB Passer Rating Differential

Redskins QBR 98.8, Opponents QBR 89.1; Differential +9.7
 Cowboys QBR 87.7, Opponents QBR 90.7; Differential -3.0

When was the last time we saw the Redskins passing game out-performing the Cowboys' game? The Redskins show up well because Griffin III throws few inceptions. The Cowboys struggle on offense, I don't put all that on Tony Romo, the quarterback everyone including Cowboys fans love to hate. Cowboys receivers are much better than Redskins receivers are, but they tune out at critical times. Dallas running game isn't balancing the offense. Thus, Romo has as many picks (13) as TD passes.

The Redskins went into the Eagles game allowing opposing quarterbacks a passer rating of 95.4. The Eagles secondary was as bad as the Redskins were good. Romo is no Nick Foles. The Redskins are without Brandon Meriweather. I never thought I'd write that and mean it as a significant loss of talent. Meriweather, like the rest of Mike Shanahan's 2012 free agent class, just seems snake bit.

Cold Hard Football Facts calls the QBR Differential a meaningful stat with a reliability factor of 65 percent. CHFF means that to apply over the course of a game, but the pregame total hints at what to expect.

In spite of the Eagles-fueled differential, I'm calling it a push between Romo and Robert Griffin III.

Turnover Differential

Redskins +8
Cowboys -14

You'd think Tony Romo's interceptions are the problem, but not so. The Cowboys forced six turnovers in 10 games, while committing 20 of its own. The Redskins forced 16 turnovers. Lets stop calling the Redskins defense "bad" and start to call them "disruptive." Both of the teams in last season's Super Bowl had bad defenses. Both were disruptive.

See? Jim Haslett gets it. Why can't the rest of us?

Advantage: Redskins

Defensive third Downs Allowed

Redskins 43%
Cowboys 35%

The Redskins showed well in this category against Philly, but the Eagles couldn't get out of its own way on offense. We can't say the 'Skins "improved," not when the Eagles held the ball for 19:11 of the first half.

That's a problem. Dallas isn't running well, but may not need to in order to keep RGIII and Washington's offense on the sideline. The Cowboys are going to possess the ball for longer than the Redskins will. For Washington to have a shot – and they do have a shot – they have to make big plays and force turnovers. Same as always.

Advantage: Cowboys

Dallas is the 3-point favorite at home. The Cowboys win 58 percent of the simulations at Accuscore who notes that turnovers factor big in games as close as this. My Magic 8 Ball likes the 'Skins over the 'Boys – "it is decidedly so." (Woo-hoo!)

The good news? I asked it twice. The 8 Ball has been correct two weeks in a row.

HAIL and Happy Thanksgiving.

Image: Redskins-Cowboys GAMEDAY cover from Hog Heaven's personal library

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News that Brandon Meriweather tore his ACL in yesterday's Eagles game burst the bubble of good feelings at the win over the Eagles.

Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan says Meriweather will be lost for the season. Man!

I promise that I'll be back next yr better then ever.Hard work pays off. God had something different for me this year. So see y'all next yr

— Brandon Meriweather (@BMeriweather31) November 19, 2012

I liked Meriweather's performance against the Eagles yesterday, especially his interception. He may not be Sean Taylor, but he was a boost to the worst position on the team.

Lets be serious. How much do you expect to see of Pierre Garçon as an active receiver this year? Until he proves he can stretch a field, I say not much. If the Redskins don't beat the Cowboys and the Giants in the next two games, I think we should not see him at all. Let him get better for next year, if he promises no more showboat somersaults when he scores.  

Now, there's four things you don't see in Washington every day.

1.       The Redskins win in a blowout.

2.       The Redskins beat a beatable team.

3.       The Redskins won at home.

4.       A really bad Andy Reid team.

Washington was anywhere from 1½ to four-point favorites going into the Philadelphia game. They won by 25. Nobody but my Magic 8 Ball saw that coming.

The Redskins did it by returning to the formula that gave a measure of success early in the season – big plays and turnovers. Robert Griffin III threw TG passes of 49, 61 and 17 yards to go with his garden-variety six-yard scoring strike to FB Darrel Young. Venerable Santana Moss attacked the ball on his 61-yard catch, while TE Logan Paulson swirled for the score after his second-effort spin move.

The safety who blew the coverage on Aldrick Robinson's 41-yard touchdown was Nate Allen, the 2nd round pick the Eagles made via McNabb trade

— Daniel Shiferaw (@dshif) November 19, 2012

On the flip side, Alfred Morris rushed for another 76 yards. Morris was acquired via 6th round pick from...McNabb trade. The second one

— Daniel Shiferaw (@dshif) November 19, 2012

The defense seemingly never got to Eagles rookie Nick Foles, but Foles threw interceptions in Philly's first two possessions. The Redskins converted the first to what turned out to be the winning touchdown early in the first quarter. The second ended a penalty-marred, 82-yard, 6:46 drive that might have led to an Eagles score.

Brandon Meriweather was everywhere on that drive and it was he who snagged the INT. That's a tease of what the Redskins D might have accomplished if Meriweather played. As it was, he was making his appearance for the Redskins and did not last the game. Meriweather tweaked his right knee in the second half and the 'Skins held him out as a precaution to be ready for the Dallas game.  

In the time he played, Meriweather scored seven tackles, two passes defended, an interception, and he silenced for the moment calls to fire Jim Haslett.

FedEx Field has been so friendly to the Eagles, that they call it Franklin Financial South. With the win, the Redskins "improved" to 5-15 in home games in the Shanahan Era.  

We knew the Eagles were in a downward spiral. They entered the game with the same 3-6 record as their hosts. They came without Michael Vick, the man to whom Robert Griffin III is most compared. Their O-line started a player, Jake Scott, signed a few days before the game. It was a line even the Redskins maligned pass rush could dominate.

The Eagles didn't make it easy, despite what the score implied. Philadelphia dominated time of possession in the first half for 19 of 30 minutes. But, it was clear throughout the game that this was not a bad team. The Eagles are a dreadful team. I feel a small measure of sympathy for their fans.

Worst play of the day for #Redskins' defense? Allowing 20-yd completion on 3rd&17. Can't happen. Johnson got open on dig between 59 and 41.

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) November 19, 2012

One of Hog Heaven's concerns going into the game was that Eagles players would go all out to save Andy Reid's job. Bad things will happen to a number of those players if Reid is fired, which seems more likely every day.

But no, The Eagles played as if they quit on Reid, overwhelmed by the problems before them. It's unsettling to watch.

RGIII may qualify for Rookie of the Week even though Sunday's performance won't count.

Griffin III completed 14 of 15 pass attempts for 200 yards and four touchdowns for a near-perfect 158.3 QBR. The NFL will not recognize the record officially points out Rich Tandler. The league requires 20 pass attempts to write it in the books. Rich takes note of one oddity. "If Griffin had thrown the five additional passes required to have his rating 'count' in the record books and all of them had been incomplete he still would have had that perfect 158.3 rating."

Such technicalities won't stop the league from promoting the heck out of Griffin, one of its hottest young guns whose luminous persona can be sold to endorse pretty much anything from shoes to sandwiches.

Therein lays a risk. We are all human. The seeds of our failure are planted in our success. Hubris has failed many top performers who felt they had done enough. (Looking at you, Cam Newton.) Hog Heaven writer Greg Trippiedi want everyone, player, coaches, fans to hold Griffin to a higher standard as we go forward.

"But it's worth pointing out that in a lot of passing metrics (and some rushing metrics), Griffin is performing closer to the level of Russell Wilson, who was picked two and a half rounds later, than he is to Andrew Luck, who went with the top overall pick.  Griffin's season has still been exceptional in so many ways, if not 'three first round picks' exceptional."

There will be praise heaped on @rgiii for that touchdown he heaved into double coverage....

— Andrew Brandt (@adbrandt) November 18, 2012

Greg points out the convergence of pro teams moving to college offenses as the growing complexity of those offenses produce more NFL ready-from-day-one quarterbacks. Griffin could be quite ordinary compared to new talent unless he and Mike Shanahan are very smart about his professional growth.

Images:
Eagles vs. Redskins found here.
Robert Griffin III vs. Eagles found here.

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Robert Griffin III has been the best thing to come to the Washington Redskins in a long time.  But as we watch the second half of his rookie campaign, we must be careful not to give him too many accolades too quickly.

We won't know until this time next year whether the Redskins coaches have done a great job protecting him from the complexity of NFL defensive schemes, or if their control-based, limited offense is holding back the best weapon in Washington sports history.  But in the doubt comes a lesson: if Griffin is expected to deliver too much too soon, that the warning signs of an impending collapse are already there.

It's entirely on Mike Shanahan to get this one right: it will be the only thing that determines if he has a job with the Redskins next year.  If Griffin is being held back, he has to cut him loose.  If he's protected him to this point, then he has to stay the course and handle the criticisms of his coaching methods in stride.

Because the facts about Griffin's statistical performance to date paint a very mixed picture.  Griffin ranks sixth in the league according to the Pro Football Focus Grades, and tenth according to game film-adjusted Total QBR.  But the further you get away from comprehensive grades that take the whole operation into account and into raw statistics, Griffin's performance begins to look a little rocky (albeit still fantastic for a rookie).  His completion percentage and yards per attempt, which both led the NFL three weeks ago, have fallen back to earth.  Griffin isn't quite even average (0.0%) in passing DVOA this season, a mark which Jason Campbell achieved three separate times in his career.  Griffin's sack rate on the season still sits above 7.0%.

In the context of grading a rookie, none of this should raise red flags.  But it's worth pointing out that in a lot of passing metrics (and some rushing metrics), Griffin is performing closer to the level of Russell Wilson, who was picked two and a half rounds later, than he is to Andrew Luck, who went with the top overall pick.  Griffin's season has still been exceptional in so many ways, if not "three first round picks" exceptionial.

Furthermore, in future seasons, the shift in the complexity of the college game is creating a world where highly drafted quarterbacks come to the league with NFL-ready skill sets.  This obviously benefitted Griffin and Luck a lot, as it did for Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Matt Ryan before them.  But it will also benefit the rookies that come after Griffin and Luck to a much greater degree.  And when you look at the careers of those rookie sensations, it's been a mixed bag, at best.

If the last three games end up being the weakest three games of Robert Griffin's Redskins career, he'll end the season as an ROY candidate, and his career as a hall of famer.  But if they become a trend in his production, the Redskins are going to need to improve the team considerably in order to win with him.

Hog Heaven wracks its brain to recall when a pro team named new team captains mid-season. Oh yeah. We've never seen this before. Like, never...in the history of Earth.

I am surprised that the professional class didn't dig deeper into news that the Redskins named Robert Griffin III, Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield as "additional" team captains.

I am 100 percent certain I read somewhere that DeAngelo Hall is (or was) a team captain. D.Hall's name wasn't mentioned in any of the press clippings about the new captains. The silence is deafening, and it speaks volumes if Hall has been shoved aside for players with genuine leadership qualities. 

That would be impressive enough if Coach Shanahan did it, and all the more so if the players did it on their own.

Hall talks a good game and says the right things. That makes one a spokesman, not a leader. When real team leaders are pulling you off game officials to keep you from hurting the team more, well ... must I say more? 

There's a connection. I'm sure of it. Good employers never speak of these things in public.

Redskins fans have had it to here with Hall. Few fans would mourn or miss him if the Redskins cut ties to him after the last game.

Eagles at Redskins – Stats worth watching

Hog Heaven pays attention to three stats when it comes to projecting Redskins performance in live games.

QB Passer Rating Differential – Cold Hard Football Facts insists this is the single best predictor of the outcome of games.

Redskins QBR 91.9, Opponents 95.4, Diff -3.5
Eagles QBR 79.7, Opponents 85.4, Diff -5.7

The negative differential explains in a nutshell a pair of 3-6 teams. When Washington gets in the positive range, they will win titles. Fos Sunday's game, they have to be less bad than Philadelphia. Robert Griffin III alone cannot balance out a flawed team any better than Tony Romo can.  

The Eagles could not protect Michael Vick from assault in every game. The result has been high turnover and poor performance. Rookie Nick Foles entered in place of Vick against Dallas and had a better performance. It was a small sample size. As my friend Forrest Gump would say, Foles is like a box or chocolate. You never know what you're going to get.

The Eagles would have us believe that Vick will be out. The Redskins don't do well against quarterback's they've never seen before. Still, we think the advantage goes to the Redskins on this one.

Turnover Differential

This is one of two stats that Richie Pettibon says are the only one he pays attention to.

Redskins +6
Eagles -11

Philly's turnover issue goes hand-in-hand with quarterback performance. Nick Foles will help the Iggles a lot if he protects the ball as well as RGIII does. Until we see Foles do it, lets give the advantage to Washington.

Defensive Third Downs Allowed

Redskins – 49/112, 43.8%
Eagles – 40/114, 35.1%

The Redskins have trouble getting opponents off the field. Teams are already thinking they can contain RGIII on the sideline via time of possession. The maligned Philly defense, now led by ex-Redskins DB Todd Bowles, is better at this by far. Advantage; Eagles.

Superior quarterback play and turnover differential will carry Washington to a narrow win. New factors -- Brandon Meriweather for the Redskins, Foles for the Eagles -- also point to Washington. My Magic 8 Ball says Redskins .. Without a doubt.

Redskins 30, Eagles 28. Total - 58. (If in Vegas, take the Eagles and the points, but you didn't read that here.)
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I will broadcast my fan reaction and comments during the game by PC again, thanks to the technomagic of LetMeHearYa.com. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET. Join me at 12:55 PM. Don't be alarmed if there are moments of silence at points. I'm watching the game just like you. I am not doing an audio rebroadcast or any of the stuff the NFL says not to do in that legal stuff on TV. A man is entitled to his opinion. I'm sharing mine.

Point your PC or other device to my LetMeHearYa Profile page, click a few buttons and we are golden.

HAIL
_________________________

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