I'm optimistic about the ability for the Washington Redskins to compete in 2010.

It's tough to say with any certainty which way the team is headed in the long term.  We don't really know if the new leadership is going to emphasize the draft or try to leverage the team's financial flexibility into a sustainable competitive advantage.  If they don't rebuild through a long slow process -- and there is no indication they will -- then the reality is that every personnel mistake gets magnified when everyone else is making yearly gains in leaps and bounds, and the Redskins have to manufacture talent increases through sustained and incrementally increasing payroll.

In the short term, the Redskins need only to best some other teams in their division to be back in the postseason.  Most early projection systems and prognsoticator opinions have the Redskins at 4th place in the NFC East this year, and that's probably where I would have to pick them at this point.  The NFC East is a highly competitive division, and it's one that you do not have to win to make the postseason, like the NFC West, for example.  I think the Redskins could win the division, but they haven't won it since '99, and they have had diminishing chances from 2005-2008, and then with the division down again last year, they couldn't capitalize, going just 4-12.  This year, every team in the division is looking to rebound from something: Dallas bottomed out midseason last year, and rose to the top of the heap.  They are looking to sustain their position.  Philadelphia had ANOTHER division title in their hands, and it slipped away in the final week.  The Giants were incredibly disappointing last season, going just 6-8 against teams that weren't the Redskins.  Quietly, they were able to sweep the Cowboys, meaning that outside of the NFC East, they were just 4-6 last year...same as the Redskins.  There's not one team in the division that expects to be worse than last year, possible exception of Philadelphia, who could still finish as high as second and a playoff berth if the status quo holds.

Still, the wins are going to have to come from somewhere on the roster.  It's easy to sit in an ivory tower and espouse that the Redskins were very unlucky last year, particularly in that mid-November to December 1 stretch that culminated with an absolute giveaway of a win vs. the then undefeated Saints, that they are better with Shanahan, better with Haslett, better with McNabb, Portis can't possibly be worse, Cooley is healthy, Thomas and Kelly can step up with experience, Heyer is not a cornerstone of the offensive plan, Trent Williams, Albert Haynesworth, Orakpo, Carter, Rogers, Fletcher, Hall, and Landry, etc., chewing through run-on sentences.  All those things are true, independent of one another.  Still, the Redskins need to generate a lot more winning plays than they did last season, and they certainly dumped a lot of their winning players from last year in pursuit of "moving on": Corneilus Griffin, Ethan Albright, Jason Campbell, Quinton Ganther, Rock Cartwright, Ladell Betts, Todd Yoder, Chris Samuels, Randy Thomas, Marko Mitchell, and Anthony Montgomery all hand their hands in plenty of winning plays over the course of the Zorn era, and while the Shanahan rebuild could have ended at simply cutting dead weight like Todd Collins and Fred Smoot, he and Bruce Allen clearly went beyond the concept of simply releasing the useless and cut a bunch of guys who have helped the Redskins to their 12 wins over the last two seasons.

None of those guys were irreplacable by any stretch, but they all must be replaced.  Approximate value, a propriatary metric over at pro-football-reference.com, has put the following values on the Redskins offense from last season.  Scores are, by definition, merely approximate, and the only scale they have value for is relative to each other (returning players in bold):

1. QB Jason Campbell 11
2. OT Stephon Heyer 7
   
3. WR Santana Moss 7
4. TE Fred Davis 6
5. G Derrick Dockery 6
6. C Casey Rabach 6
   
7. WR Antwaan Randle El 4
   
8. RB Rock Cartwright 4
   
9. RB Clinton Portis 4
10. RB Ladell Betts 3
11. FB Mike Sellers 3
12. OL Mike Williams 3
    
13. WR Malcolm Kelly 3
    
14. WR Devin Thomas 3
15. TE Chris Cooley 3
16. OT Levi Jones 3
17. OT Chris Samuels 2
    
18. RB Quinton Ganther 2
19. G Chad Rinehart 2
20. G Will Montgomery 2
    
21. G Edwin Williams 1
    
22. G Randy Thomas 1
    
23. RB Marcus Mason 1
24. TE Todd Yoder 1
    
25. WR Marko Mitchell 0
26. OT D'Anthony Batiste 0
27. OT Will Robinson 0
    

For those keeping track:

• The Redskins return 54 AV between 13 players
• The Redskins lose 34 AV between 14 players

The idea here is to open up more opportunity to generate winning plays (relative to the league average) than you cost yourself in dropping production.  Right now, the most productive returning Redskin on offense is...Stephon Heyer.  That only makes sense when you consider that AV is highly dependent on player usage to determine value.  Campbell, Heyer, Dockery, Rabach, and Moss all had 16 starts, with Davis contributing as a full season starter in only 9 starts.  The bigger picture, however, is that if the Redskins are going to win more games in 2010, there will be more than just 88 offensive AV to throw around.

AV isn't scientific in it's nature, it's, well, approximate.  The points have little meaning, except in relativity to each other.  With that said, I love using it, because, well, the Redskins had a crappy offense last year.  They didn't have a ton of points to split amongst them based on the lack of production of the entire unit.  Still, they were willing to get rid of about 40% of everything they accomplished last year in order to potentially get better.  That, my friends, is rebuilding (if with the oldest pieces they could find).

Question -- and point of writing tonight -- is: where are those points going to come from?  The Redskins freed up the quarterback position, moved a wide receiver out of the way to give more playing time to the younger receivers and tight ends, changed the status quo of old running backs, and changed the balance on the offensive line.  It's likely that the QB position will lead the Redskins in AV again, and that the running backs will combine for more than 14 points.  If the Redskins receivers are going to produce more, one player has to emerge as the go to receiver, and produce in excess of Santana Moss' 2009 season.  There's enough opportunity to go around, but little hint as to where, if anywhere, that top line production might come from.  The tight ends are capable of more: Fred Davis doesn't have to give up that many of his yards and TDs to allow Cooley to get back to his career numbers.

If the Redskins offense is to improve significantly, the improvements will primarily come from the offensive line, with 5 different players combining for between 14 to 16 starts, and splitting 45-50 AV between them, instead of 33 in 2009.

The defense is capable of improvement too.  Their sack rate, at best, will remain constant with 2009, but the pass coverage was horrendous in 2009, and can improve.  Here are the AV figures for those members of the secondary, with the returners bolded.

1. CB Carlos Rogers 7
2. FS LaRon Landry 6
3. CB DeAngelo Hall 5
4. SS Reed Doughty 4
5. CB Fred Smoot 3
6. SS Chris Horton 2
7. CB Justin Tryon 2
8. FS Lendy Holmes 1
9. FS Kareem Moore 1
10. CB Byron Westbrook 1
11. CB Kevin Barnes 0

And here's that group compared to the same unit in 2008:

1. FS LaRon Landry 9
2. CB Carlos Rogers 8
3. SS Chris Horton 6
4. CB Fred Smoot 5
5. CB Shawn Springs 4
6. CB DeAngelo Hall 3
7. FS Kareem Moore 2
8. SS Reed Doughty 2
9. SS Mike Green 2
10. CB Leigh Torrence 1
11. CB Justin Tryon 1
12. FS Justin Hamilton 0

Thats 43 AV in 2008 vs. 32 AV in 2009, which is where the real decline on the defense was, because I thought the front seven was a lot better in 2009.  The top three guys on the 2008 list all declined in 2009, Rogers by a lot more than AV captures, Landry and Horton by about as much as AV sees.  Smoot played a lot both years, but offered basically no quality plays.  Springs wasn't really replaced by Hall, as his release just drained the depth.  Tryon, though, improved by a lot more than AV thinks, and Doughty probably did double his value.

The secondary comparsions are adept at showing where the problems are on the defense.  I would describe the 2008 group as adequate and deep, and the 2009 group as generally in adequate.  If Landry can lead the defense again, if Rogers can get back to being a number one corner, if Hall can be a functional player in a good secondary, and if basicaly the same supporting cast can combine for more points than they did in 2009, then this unit will be fine, and the wins will follow.

We're in an age where pass defense is the untapped path for many teams to playoff success, and the Redskins, who weren't good enough in pass defense to make a run in 2008, declined to the point where they weren't good enough to to finish a game in 2009.  It's sad, because the run defense is generally quite adept, and strong pass defense for a team that spent as much draft value in the secondary as the Redskins did in the last decade should be a given.  They've had to deal with plenty of adversity on the way, and can be given a short-term bpass if they get things turned around.

To recap, the wins need to come from the offensive line, and the pass coverage.  If those units can improve, the Redskins are capable of winning a bunch of games in 2010.  If those units fail to improve once again, or worse -- continue to slide -- their schedule of tough conference games is all but certain to get the best of them.  I'm cautious, but optimistic, about the team's chances right now.

The Redskins have had the same four safeties for the last two NFL seasons: Chris Horton, LaRon Landry, Reed Doughty, and Kareem Moore.  Over that timeframe, the position has been both a strength and a weakness.  In 2008, Horton's emergence as one of the team's most explosive players against the run simplified the role of LaRon Landry in the defense, and his physical ability to be a sideline to sideline player prevented teams from consistently attacking the Redskins pass defense where it was weak, opting instead to try to beat the team with short throws to the RBs and TEs.  Last year, the complete opposite occured.  Horton was benched (coaches decision) three games into the year, and though Reed Doughty eventually reemerged as a quality SS, teams started to use the same attack plan at LaRon Landry week after week.  Instead of trying to beat him to the sideline like they did in 2008, teams just went after him, with great success, and disasterous results for the Redskins defense.

Though the entire group is still young, it may be time to shake up the balance of the unit.  Coverage has been a major issue, because no one is really good at it.  Reed Doughty and Chris Horton are out of place in most defensive schemes.  Horton, actually, is so explosive as a run defender that he could put on a few pounds and go have a ten year career at weak-side linebacker in a 4-3.  Doughty is pretty much a special teamer with a single skill at safety where he could be as high up on a depth chart as no. 3 and not hurt your team.  Kareem Moore is probably a 4th safety who the Redskins are trying to see if they can make into a starter, and it's not likely to work.  Is that really worth playing with?

There's a better option, and it doesn't require that the team make any additional moves: DeAngelo Hall should play safety.

The first reason for this is that it would obviously maximize his value against the pass.  Last year, Hall had arguably his best season as a professional cornerback.  He didn't play nearly as well for Washington as he did for the final six games of 2008, but he also played 8 games for the Raiders where he was one of the worst players in football.  Combining his coverage numbers from both locations that season gives a player who was slightly below average.  This year, Hall was about league average as a no. 2 CB, according numbers collected by Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats.  No. 2 CBs like Hall are very valuable, and the Redskins pass defense was a lot worse when Hall was hurt and Fred Smoot was "playing" "coverage".  As valuable as his contract?  That's pretty debateable.  Fortunately, I think there are ways to maximize his value as a cover player.

Hall usually rates pretty low in derivations of success rate or stop rate; stats that use binary "successful play" or "unsuccessful play", and aggragates the totals to try to see which corners are most effective over the course of a 60-70 play season.  He generally does better when measured against yards: his 7.8 yards per play against last year ranked 40th among NFL corners, or right in the expected level of a no. 2 CB.  I believe that players who have the most successful rate stats are going to be better year to year bets, because the sample tends to be more meaningful in my opinion, but preventing the offense from getting yards is the name of football.  In 2009, Hall was not exactly one of the easiest players in football to throw on, and when you factor in his ability to make quarterbacks pay for bad throws, you have something there.

Of course, right now, you're asking a cornerback to play one on one coverage, prevent yards, and still get those big game changing plays.  Why not get Hall off of the boundary of the field, put him in the middle, give him half of the deep field to cover, and let a better short area defender such as Justin Tryon or Kevin Barnes play in front of him?  It makes a lot of sense.  One reason that the Redskins might be slow to make that change is that Hall has a terrible reputation as a run defender.  Just horrendous.  Well, in 2009, Hall might have been really slow to come up and hit people, or at least hesitant to decide to fly up and hit someone (such as the gritty Jake Delhomme), but FO's numbers have him as one of the most effective run defenders in the NFL...at least once per game when he made a play.  Quantity might not be as important as quality for a corner, but Hall has made more plays against the run in prior years.  I don't think these numbers say much, but he can certainly handle the safety role from the perspective of hitting the running back.  After the LaRon Landry disaster season, he might actually be the best run defender of that tandem.

Carlos Rogers was not very good in 2009 (shocker, I know), but he still has the history of the prior two seasons to back him as a no. 1 corner.  Basically, his past performance in defenses that weren't a complete joke justifies the move of Hall from a position of strength (corner) to a position with a lot of young talent, but just as many questions (safety).  With Phillip Buchanon in the fold at corner, and Tryon likely to remain in the nickel role for at least one more season, and a good reason to try to get 2009 3rd round pick Barnes into thie lineup as a starter, the Redskins have extra incentive to move Hall now as not to block the cheap young players who might need to replace Carlos Rogers in 2011.  Tryon, in particular was really good in his role last year, and is perhaps the one Redskins DB who has actually earned the right to keep his job next year.

Hall and Landry could play equal, opposite safety roles, or they could back Hall up off the line deep and move Landry into the box.  This way, they wouldn't have to fool around with trying to teach Kareem Moore to be an NFL level safety any longer, and they can still get better production than last year.  Chris Horton can still get onto the field as a dime back.

The alternative is to press on with a logjam of corners who haven't really been able to produce a top pass defense since 2007, when the starting corners where Fred Smoot and Shawn Springs.  Those two have since moved on, leaving Rogers and Hall as the leaders of such a defense.  It hasn't worked.  When the team moved to a highly passive philosophy that felt comfortable to Hall, Rogers looked lost and got benched.  When Hall was forced to come up and press receivers early in the 2009 season, he was beaten countless times.  The Redskins need to incorporate Barnes and Tryon first and foremost, and then if Buchanon makes the team, he too can be in the playing time rotation.  Breaking up the Rogers/Hall tandem makes the most sense, and Hall's speed and ball skils make him a primary candidate to move inside the numbers this year.

It's May 22nd today, and perhaps there's no better time of the NFL year to find yourself in a little bit of hot water.  After all, it's either bad news or no news at this time of the spring.

The Redskins are taking a little bit of heat right now, and the criticism is related to one of it's players, WR Santana Moss, being linked to Canadian-based Dr. Anthony Galea, and practices that allegedly, cross hard and fast laws in the United States.  Things got even more weird for Skins fans when allegations arose that Galea's assistant, arrested at customs with Hgh and multiple syrnges and other medical tools which was not properly licesnced or documented, was, um...on her way to treat Santana Moss.  Allegedly.

Now reports say, rather unsurprisingly when you think about it, that Moss might not have been the only Redskin scheduled for such a visit on the trip.  If, in fact, more Redskins are implicated in this mess, it would be the least surprising element of everything.

The question on many minds is: why?  There's no real gray area here.  Galea is not a team doctor for the Redskins.  Hgh, while incredibly difficult to test for, has never at any point been legal for use in the NFL.  Players are responsible for what they put into their own bodies, they know they are responsible for what they put into their own bodies, and so when something like this happens, fans want to know why such clear rules can be broken so obviously.

Part of it, obviously, is that because it's difficult to test for Hgh, it's being used pretty commonly in injury treatment for athletes.  While illegal, Hgh is hardly a performance enhancer.  Cortizone, an anabolic steroid (but perfectly legal for team usage), is obviously a performance enhancer.  Aspirins and other painkillers, taken orally, unnaturally improve an athlete's ability to play with pain.  No one really worries about those over-the-counter meds, as while it's very easy to accidentally injest something over the counter that triggers a positive test, it's not cheating to drop Tylenol before a performance.

Hgh isn't the same.  It's not over the counter.  Its illegal.  But it's still a part of what athletes can use to promote, well, being an athlete.  Athletes are different from us normal folk because the workout process is only the beginning of a training regiment, there's also an active recovery process that weekend athletes have no use for.  There are of course, supplements, that can assist with the healing process and will not get an athlete in trouble.  Doctors, as we see here with Galea, are still using Hgh as a treatment for the recovery phase of a training cycle.

We're still without any concrete facts in this specific case, but the silence from the Moss camp is deafening.

What Moss may very well be in trouble for has nothing to do with enhancing performance relative to the rest of his competition, for one thing we have no idea how many other NFL receivers use Hgh as part of their training cycle.  Any advantage actually obtained by Moss as a result of illegal substance abuse probably will not be reflected in his production over the last few years, unless you consider that he might have been even lazier out there if he was hurting just a little bit more than he actually was from the grind of being a professional athlete.  In short, it would be wrong to say that Moss cheated.  He didn't.  It looks like he took something that was illegal and that he knew was illegal.  If he hadn't taken Hgh, he would have just taken something else to the same effect of healing from the breakdown of his body.  In some capacity, every player in the NFL is doing it.  Moss, it appears, abused substances.

Is it stupid of him?  You could say so, but consider how ridiculous this link to Moss actually was.  A licensed assistant, who was going to visit Moss, got caught, and arrested carrying illegal drugs into the United States.  Charges were then filed against the practicing doctor by the US Government.  Moss should have been in the clear, as he didn't test positive for anything, except for the fact that his name came out after questioning.  Basically, you can tell Moss he's responsible for what is going in his body, and that he should bear the consequences if caught (and he should), but once he is starting to be held responsible for the legal medical practices of someone else in order to avoid being suspended...well, you see the problem here with the whole responsibility angle.

Based on that, I hope Moss isn't suspended since he didn't test positive.  The Redskins, as an organization, will probably be slapped on the wrist for this, which strikes me as fair.  Perhaps the team suspends Moss to set a standard, which is also fair.  And, if ultimately, the NFL decides Moss has been in violation of the substance abuse policy, I will live with the NFL's decision.  My point is that since Moss was hardly caught doing anyone or himself wrong, maybe we should treat him like a guy who has his name caught up as a third party in a nasty criminal investigation, and not as the 5' 9" wide receiver who cheated himself, his team, and his family by accepting treatment from a foreign doctor who's medical practices have him and the Redskins in hot water.

There is about 3 and a half months until the Redskins must make a decision on all of their necessary cuts, but with the most recent releases, it's not unreasonable to have a feel for who the Redskins will break camp with on their week one roster.  Not wanting go into this post completely blind (or at least no more blind than a normal post), I did some research to see how frequently a Mike Shanahan draft choice fails to make the team (0 games played for the Broncos).

Shanahan picks tend to miss the roster at a rate of about one guy per year.  Most recently, the Broncos took a defensive tackle by name of Carlton Powell in 2008, who never played for them.  The most successful player to miss a Mike Shanahan roster in the last five years after being drafted is current Giants WR Domenik Hixon.  This says nothing about the quality of players drafted, rather, that we're likely to see most every player in this draft class make the roster, and if one misses, it's likely to be either OL Erik Cook, or TE/FB Dennis Morris.

As of today, my money is on the following 53 guys, with comments interjected after each position.

Quarterbacks (2): Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman

I can't help but notice that a McNabb/Grossman QB roster doesn't really look all that great on paper, despite the fact that the Redskins have upgraded their starting quarterback, and their backup quarterback from last year.  I think this says more about me overrating a Jason Campbell/Todd Collins combination the last two years that was significantly weaker than any of the quarterback groups under Joe Gibbs from 2004-07.  Since Mark Brunell's contract expired after the 2007 season, the Redskins have always been reliant on Todd Collins to come through as a backup, and Grossman is an upgrade in that sense.  I still wouldn't feel comfortable about Sexy Rexy having to start a game this year, but that's a likely reality.

Colt Brennan has a really obvious inside track to the third quarterback spot, as he has no real competition, but right now keeping only two passers seems like the prefered option for Mike Shanahan, since he's been doing it since 2005, with Jake Plummer and Bradlee Van Pelt.

Running Backs (3): Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, Willie Parker

The thing to take away here is not about who is making the team, but who isn't making it, which is to say, I don't think there's a good chance that any players under the age of 29 play RB for the Redskins next year.  There are, however, plenty of players that the team will look at, and there is a spot on the roster for Ryan Torain or Keiland Williams if they can impress in camp, and it won't come at the expense of any of the veterans, at least not with regards to Week 1.  The prediction here is that Brian Westbrook will sign with the Denver Broncos.

Fullbacks (2): Mike Sellers, Dennis Morris

Mike Sellers' hold on a roster spot is more tenuous than I think a lot of people realize, which is to say, if they need a roster spot, Colt Brennan is the first player to go, and Sellers will be the second.  It's probably not a good sign if they both make the roster, as that would imply that there just weren't many players that impressed in camp enough to make the team, and without a steady diet of performance from the players who aren't necessarily expected to compete, this team won't be doing that much winning.  Morris will make the roster unless he plays his way off of it.

Wide Receivers (5): Malcolm Kelly, Santana Moss, Devin Thomas, Bobby Wade, Terrence Austin

Not a great group here.  Bobby Wade had a really good year in 2007 for the Vikings.  The last two years, he's been caught on some really bad offenses in Minnesota then Kansas City, which is nothing new to Wade, who was drafted by the Bears in 2003.  I think Roydell Williams and Marques Hagans are going to get every opportunity to win the 4th WR spot, but ultimately, Wade has the best chance.  I'm not at all sure how Joey Galloway factors into all of this, but I'm thinking: not well.  Terrence Austin will be prominently featured on special teams, and could even catch a pass or two.

Tight Ends (3): Chris Cooley, Fred Davis, Sean Ryan

This roster is developing a decisive veteran flavor.  I'm just not seeing enough young talent to displace anyone here.  Maybe the next group will change that.

Offensive Tackles (4): Trent Williams, Stephon Heyer, Selvish Capers, Artis Hicks

The reason that the first three seem almost certain to make it is because the team simply lacks offenisve tackles who have played the position in the NFL, or even in college, and therefore would be experienced having to play this year.  I think that, seemingly, the plan right now is to put Stephon Heyer back at right tackle, which sort of puts the team in the same predicament it was last season with just one true left tackle on the roster, this time it's Trent Williams instead of Chris Samuels.  Capers, I think, will ultimately be a right tackle, but it wouldn't shock me to see the Redskins play him as the second string left tackle for this whole season, especially if they ever want to develop Heyer.  Hicks is listed here because he is very much in play to win the RT job, but he's just a 31 year old Guard, at the end of the day.

Guards (4): Derrick Dockery, Mike Williams, Kory Lichtensteiger, Erik Cook

If one guy from the Redskins draft class in 2010 was going to miss the roster, I'd predict it would be Cook.  Lictensteiger appeared in every game for Mike Shanahan in 2008, mostly on special teams (can't let those FGs get blocked).  He also has value at center, potentially, so I think he's a safe bet to make it.  When Hicks is taking 2nd team reps at RG and RT, there won't be any reps for Chad Rinehart anyway, so I expect him to be released.  This Redskins coaching staff isn't going to waste time with Mike Williams playing tackle, that's why they have Hicks after all.  He's a good bet to start at RG, but not good enough to feel comfortable there.  I would not be surprised if the 2011 RG was someone else besides Big Mike.

Centers (2): Casey Rabach, Edwin Williams

There's really no reason to expect them to keep two centers, but Shanahan(s) are bound to like the quicker, undersized version of Edwin Williams, adn find a spot for him somewhere as a developmental project.  He's still probably behind Lichtensteiger on the food chain of Centers on this team, and Rabach never seems to get hurt anyway, ensuring that the middle of the offensive line will feature a swinging gate pretty much all year.

I honestly do not expect the team to keep ten offensive lineman, as there's simply no reason to keep more than nine, but I don't have a prediction as to who the odd man out will be.  (Mike) Williams or Rabach are probably the worst of the bunch, but they're penciled in to start, so you tell me.  All of this ignores the possibility that Rinehart has a great camp, and beats out someone, probably Cook.

Nose Tackles (3): Albert Haynesworth, Ma'ake Kemoeatu, Howard Green

Without a doubt, given the health record of Kemoeatu, two players that know the NT position aren't completely sufficient, so I'd expect Phillip Daniels to learn this position as well, given that Haynesworth will only be here on rushing downs, but in the game for 70% of all downs.  Howard Green is the most accomplished option here as a guy who can trade inactivity with Kemoeatu as his injuries flare up and keep him out of the lineup.

Defensive Ends (4): Adam Carriker, Phillip Daniels, Kedric Golston, Greg Peterson

I can't help but think there might be a move or a trade to add depth here.  Jeremy Jarmon is probably good enough to play both end and linebacker in the 3-4, but he's rehabing from an ACL.  Peterson, who Bruce Allen drafted with Tampa, is nothing more than a back-end-of-roster lifer, who is probably nearing his expiration date.

I will throw out one name: Chris Hovan.

Outside Linebackers (5): Brian Orakpo, Andre Carter, Lorenzo Alexander, Chris Wilson, Jeremy Jarmon

This might be the most talented position on the entire roster.  A few of these guys are making transitions to stand-up linebacker, but they are all incredibly talented quarterback assulters.  Jeremy Jarmon is the one who might have a roster spot in jeopardy, if only becaus of his injury, but ultimately, since these guys play both the role of linebackers and of defensive lineman in the nickel package, there's really no reason to skip on the amount of them you put on the roster.

Inside Linebackers (4): London Fletcher, Rocky McIntosh, HB Blades, Perry Riley

Chris Draft strikes me as a depth signing in the event that the Redskins can agree to terms on a trade of McIntosh, he'll be an easy cut if they cannot.  Fletcher, and his future replacement, Riley, are locks to make the roster, and Blades should be pretty safe because he offers both more defensive value and more special teams value than Draft.  So assuming that the Redskins aren't opposed to the idea of having Rocky Mac contribute to the defense, he'll be on the team if not traded, and Draft will be gone.

Cornerbacks (5): Carlos Rogers, DeAngelo Hall, Phillip Buchanon, Kevin Barnes, Justin Tryon

This is another strong position for the Redskins.  Rogers and Hall are the locks.  Tryon is likely to have the nickel back position again, but it wouldn't be the most shocking thing if he was released and the Redskins went forward with Buchanon and Barnes sharing that role.  The Redskins also have Marcus McCauley, who started nine games as a rookie on the 2007 Vikings, and is quite good at run support.  He's an easy release of course, but gives the Redskins competition for Tryon, and an extra option at corner if they decide to do something quite creative that I will suggest next week.

Safeties (4):  LaRon Landry, Kareem Moore, Chris Horton, Reed Doughty

These were the same four safeties from 2009, and the same four safeties from 2008.  My prediction, right now, is that they will remain a group in 2009.  Two things about that: 1) Lendy Holmes is a pretty impressive player who could play himself onto the roster at the expense of Doughty.  2) Right now, Kareem Moore is getting the first team reps with LaRon Landry right now.  I'm thinking that Moore won't be a 16 or even a 10 game starter with this team.  This sets the stage for, perhaps, a more high profile player to play safety along side Landry, leaving Moore and Horton as the primary backups.

I am not talking about OJ Atogwe, for the record.

Long Snapper (1): Nick Sundberg

I know nothing about Nick Sundberg, only that he's on the roster, and the Redskins have not bothered to tender Ethan Albright a contract.

Kicker (1): Graham Gano

Justin Medlock is a lot older than Gano, and does not have the sort of leg strength that the Florida State product brings to punching kickoffs deep into the endzone.  Neither has much of a track record as a field goal kicker at the professional level, but both were touted college kickers, maybe Medlock moreso than Gano.

Punter (1): Josh Bidwell

Bidwell, when healthy, represents an upgrade on Hunter Smith.  He, unfortunately, is not a threat to throw or run for a touchdown this year.

If you follow the Washington Redskins, you're most likely aware that Andre Carter got 11.0 sacks last year.  Carter was the sack leader for a Redskins team that ranked 5th overall in Adjusted Sack Rate, it's highest ranking in such a metric ever, and it's best rating since the highly paid, highly touted defense of 2000.  Brian Orakpo, maybe a more prolific sack artist on a per-rush basis, chipped in with 11 more sacks.  Carter, however, was the team's most dependable defensive player for most of last year, and the argument could be entertained that 2009 was the best year ever for Andre Carter.

You may also realize that the team is playing a version of the 3-4 defense this year, and while Carter has experience in such a defense (under Mike Nolan in 2005), that unit was awful, Carter's production was down in the prime of his career, and he was a healthy non-starter in 2 of his 16 games that year.  Certainly, 2005 was Carter's most disappointing season because he scored only 4.5 sacks, and 35 tackles, and couldn't get in the flow of the game as the off-rusher to Julian Peterson on that 2005 team.

It's not surprising that Carter has expressed disappointment with the switch to the 3-4 in Washington, but I'm writing today to dispel the myth that Carter simply cannot play linebacker in the 3-4.  Sure, his team's defense was dreadful that season, and Carter wasn't much of a factor against the pass that season, but it would be fallacy to say that Carter played poorly that year.  He was doing something different from the successful parts of his career true, but Carter didn't actually lose his starting job over the course of the year.  Carter, coming off injury in 2004, actually started the season coming off the bench, but played well enough to force himself onto the field by Week 3, and then San Francisco dealt LB Jamie Winborn to Jacksonville the week after that.

Since coming to Washington, Carter has led the Redskins in QB hits every single season.  His sack totals have tanked in the years that the team has had no other pass rushing threats outside of him, namely, 2006 and 2008, but in 2007 when Corneilius Griffin and Demetric Evans were in the primes of their pass rushing careers (and not hurt!), Carter led the Redskins with 10 sacks in a playoff year.  This year, of course, Carter had all sorts of help, from Albert Haynesworth, to Orakpo, Jeremy Jarmon, Lorenzo Alexander, and Chris Wilson.

A lot of people have assumed that 2009 was the last quality year in Carter's Washington career, the scheme change doing him in, perhaps concurrently with age regression.  Such an assumption might be a bit premature.  Carter turned 31 on Wednesday, but his QB hits figure has not declined in the slightest since joining the Redskins, and supports the strong possibility that Carter's 2010 season might be, if anything, an improvement on the past.  More importantly, Carter's sustained production is an absolute necessity if Brian Orakpo needs to improve on his sack production in 2010.  Furthermore, if Jim Haslett is looking to build off of what players had done in the past, Carter and Orakpo are perfect complements in 2010.

When Andre Carter played LB for the 49ers, he played on the weakside as the primary rush end for the Niners.  That's not really a big position change for him from the right end position.  In fact, Carter would be playing the exact same gap as he was in the 4-3, lining up in almost the same place, with the main difference being that he's in a two point stance instead of having his hand on the ground.  Brian Orakpo was the Redskins strong-side linebacker last year on rushing downs, lining up primarily on the left side when the offense dictated that to be the defensive strength.  If the Redskins play their first and second down defense out of the 3-4 this year, they are essentially playing an identical defense to last season, with the one personnel exception being Adam Carriker in for Corneilus Griffin.

That is to say: if the Redskins choose to, there will be no sigificant schematic changes between Blache's 2009 defense and Haslett's 2010 defense, despite the difference in the number of hands on the ground.  The X's and O's will be practically identical.

What will be different is the increased level of flexibility that the 3-4 offers the coordinator, a blessing if the coordinator really knows how to attack a defense, and a curse if he's unclear on the strength and weaknesses of his opponent.  Seeing a 3-4 front never surprises an offense anymore, rather, the surprise must come from a great understanding of a gameplan, and how an offense can be exploited via one on one matchups.  Having the Redskins defense is a coordinator's dream.  You have a nose tackle in Albert Haynesworth who can, in theory, line up at nose on first down and engulf blockers, then like up at linebacker on second down and rush the passer, then get into a three technique position in the nickle package and blow up a screen attempt, then go right into the middle of the defense on fourth and short and Superman the running back to create a turnover.  Then you have not one, but two excellent pass rushers in Carter and Orakpo.  And if that's not enough, the whole operation is led by one of the most cerebral players in football, London Fletcher.

Still, without Carter providing consistent weak-side pass rush and making plays against the run, there's a hole at linebacker on this team.  Such a move might have a negative effect on Orakpo, who will line up further from the ball than he did last year, and have to beat blockers even quicker.  And if he can't do that, then Haynesworth might have to slide outside to complement his rush, which frees up interior blockers to get a body on Mister America Fletcher.  So without that second quality LB, the Redskins defense isn't nearly as strong.

The Redskins need another strong year out of Andre Carter, and he's ready to produce as a linebacker this year.  He just needs a chance to, once again, lead the Redskins in QB hits.

One of the blemishes on this first offseason for the new Redskins' front office, in my opinion, was that they got the worse end of the Donovan McNabb trade.  Context is everything.  If neither Kevin Kolb or Jason Campbell had existed, and for sake of argument, the trade was occuring between the Eagles and the Redskins in a vacuum, a second round pick is not a hefty price to pay for the back end of a player like Donovan McNabb's career.  There should be a legitimate concern that the receipiant in the trade only receives maybe a year or two of quality play in return (if that), but McNabb is a good enough quarterback where even one year at his expected level of play can justify a second round pick.  In fact, McNabb's $12 million figure for this season is well below the market rate for a quarterback of his stature.

The problems with the trade come in when you consider who Kevin Kolb and Jason Campbell are in the NFL hierarchy of quarterbacks.  Bascially, the Eagles had an internal problem of holding two quarterbacks on the roster who they wanted to start next year, and couldn't afford to outright release McNabb to get to Kolb.  They needed to find a trade partner, and the Redskins assisted the Eagles out of their mini-mess, offering in return a valuable draft choice (now Eagles S Nate Allen).  What the Redskins got in return looks good in a vaccuum, but makes little sense when you consider what they had before.  McNabb's $12 million contract is team friendly, but not moreso than Campbell's $3 million.  McNabb has quality years left, but certainly fewer left than Campbell.  McNabb has been to pro bowls, but neither McNabb nor Campbell is particularly likely to make it to one in the future.

To take the Eagles problems off their hands, you'd expect a big upgrade in terms of on field play, but truth be told, you can probably expect more immediate impact out of a high second round pick in terms of wins than this QB upgrade will get you.  The Eagles take a big risk by moving forward with an unproven Kolb, but they know it's a risk that's likely to pay off, just as deep down, Redskins fans realize that somehow, someway, the McNabb trade has all the makings of an awful move.  In the past, I've compared it to the Jason Taylor trade, but while I think the outcomes will be similar, the fundamental error here is not a repeat of the past.  The Redskins are in uncharted waters after this trade.  Thing is, with McNabb's career getting to a breaking point -- either his production explodes in Washington and drives up his legacy consistent to that of a hall of famer, or he plays fewer than 20 games with the Redskins and kind of drifts off into a forgotton land of very good quarterbacks who never did bring home the title, and simply were never dominant enough to be in the Hall of Fame.  Honestly, that's not a bad point to take a risk on a player with a great legacy.  Better than doing it five years from now.  Problem is, at the price of the trade, it's hard to envision a winning scenario.

One scenario under which a McNabb acquisition might have made sense is if the Redskins hadn't won four games with a middling passing game and putrid running game, but rather, couldn't make plays through the air or on the ground en route to a 2-14 season.  It's possible, especally if the Redskins had lost to the Rams, that the team (if they had legitimately struggled at quarterback last year) would have been in position to take Sam Bradford with the 1st overall pick.  It's just another example of why I don't think McNabb made/makes sense for the Redskins, when one of the only reasons that the Redskins didn't get the first overall pick with their luck/inept coaching last year was competent veteran QB play.

All of that is water under the bridge.  The Redskins found a taker for Campbell in Oakland, and received a future pick that -- while having no present value -- will help offset some of the future imbalance of this McNabb deal over time.  I felt it necessary to preface the following discussion about McNabb and how his legacy in Washington may depend more on an agreement between the NFL owners and the Players Association, than on anything McNabb or Mike Shanahan can do.  Right now, the Redskins are between a rock and a hard place in terms of their ability to win under Shanahan, and while I think I've shown pretty conclusively that this trade doesn't make a whole lot of sense for the Redskins, I also believe that the Redskins might have had their hand forced by external factors that they cannot control.

In 2010, the Redskins will compete against perhaps the toughest schedule they've ever had in the NFC East.  While there have been years, (consecutive years actually in 2007-2008) where no team in the division finished with double digits in the losses column, this will be perhaps the first year that both the Eagles and the Cowboys will be top five teams in the NFL going into the season.  Meanwhile the Giants have a chance to be a top ten team, and the Redskins should be a top half team.  There's a lot of divisions that the Skins could compete and win this year, but the NFC East likely is not one of them.  There are plenty of wild cards available for NFC East teams to grab, as always, so I'm not predicting that the Redskins won't make the postseason, but if they do, it will not be as a favorite to advance.

Following the 2010 season, the Collective Bargaining Agreement ends.  There is a very high probability that there will not be football in 2011.  Faced with the reality of the situation, the Redskins decision makers knew, going in, that they had very little time to make a play at winning the super bowl right away.  It's probably a correct assumption that keeping Jason Campbell on board for this upcoming season doesn't give the team a good enough chance of winning under the current CBA, so they took a risk, and made a change.  If I was going to go balls out like that in an attempt to win now, I think it would make more sense to take a chance on an unknown quantity than to go with McNabb, but perhaps there is an unknown quantity to the McNabb that the Redskins are planning to utilize.  Like I stated, I have an expectation for how this will end, but the Redskins still are in uncharted waters, and just because there is no apparent plan doesn't mean one is absent.

I do wonder what the Redskins' plan for the 2012 season is.  All we know about the NFL three years down the road is that there might have been two seasons played between now and then, or just one.  On November 25, 2012, McNabb will turn 36.  It's hard to see him as a quality quarterback at that point.  Pro football reference offers this list of statstical comparables for his career through 11 years:

Brunell was still effective at that age, but there was little downfield component to the Redskins offense at that point.  McNair (RIP) is a much better comparable, and his last hurrah came right around McNabb's current age.  If the Redskins had acquired McNair in 2006, he wouldn't have made it through the 2010 season.  Bradshaw was still effective around his retirement, which occured consistent with the McNair timeline.  Jim Kelly, like Bradshaw and unlike McNabb didn't have to change teams at the end of his career, but he was able to play like an average NFL QB past his 33rd birthday for about three years.  Aikman's injury profile fits in next to McNabb's and he was effective through his age 33 season, but then ineffective at 34 when Lavar Arrington drilled him to end his career.  Boomer Esiason had some really ineffective years at the end of his career, which lasted a lot longer the other McNabb comparables, but he won 8 games and made the pro bowl in his first year after leaving Cincinnati.  Staubach was awesome in his mid to late thirties.  Bledsoe had a league average year as Cowboys QB in 2005, then was done.  Stabler was never good after leaving Oakland.  Griese made it through 33 at the top of his game, then dropped off.

McNabb's comparables have scattered league average performances after their 33rd birthdays, but most of them chose to retire before getting up into their mid thirties, oftentimes due to injuries.  I'd feel a lot better about McNabb's chances of playing to 2012 and beyond if not for his injury history and the upcoming labor dispute.

Realistically, I think the Redskins are looking to squeeze one year plus out of McNabb, but whether or not this trade makes sense for the future certainly seems to hinge on whether anyone at all plays football in 2011.  If McNabb misses more games in 2010, and things don't appear to be looking up, it's certainly a lot to ask a quarterback who has accomplished as much as he has to hang around through the 2011 non-season as QB of this team waiting to try to win as a 35-36 year old quarterback on the other side.  Put simply, not many quarterbacks who weren't durable in their early thirties played enough to win in their mid to late thirties.

What does this all mean?  Well, it appears from a quarterbacking standpoint, the future is now for the Redskins.  Pending an extension that seems like a formality, McNabb is the QB of this team for the next two seasons.  Whether the NFL even plays that second season is out of everyone's control, and whether McNabb is still in the NFL at age 35 in 2012 is his choice alone, and depends heavily on how well the Redskins do this season, and how healthy he is at the end of the season.  McNabb comparables seem to confirm that it is very likely that he will hit the ground running as a Redskin, and if nothing else, should be a constant that allows the coaching staff to evaluate it's young talent on offense.  If the NFL plays it's 2011 season, McNabb is almost certain to be the Week 1 starter for the Redskins.  If history suggests anything, it's that the window to win might already be closed at that point.

Certainly, the Week 1 game THIS year will have extra meaning when Dallas comes to town.  The Redskins are going all in gambling that they will win it, and carry that momentum through the rest of it's early schedule, and be the talk of the NFL at midseason again.  After all, the reputations of a bunch of really high profile people depend on the success of this plan.

If you are a Jason Campbell fan, today's news out of Oakland was inevitable. The Raiders released their 2007 No. 1 draft pick quarterback JaMarcus Russell this afternoon, ending the 24 year old's troubled career with Al Davis' team.

The move cements Campbell's bid to be the Raiders starting quarterback. That's a classic good news-bad news scenario. The good news is that Campbell is the clear upgrade over every other quarterback on the roster. The bad news? It's the Raiders who finished with a 10-22 record with Russell at the helm.

Redskin fans like me shouldn't speak too loudly. Campbell suffered from turmoil by Washington's front office. He couldn't lift the Redskins from the Snyderrato tornado last season, though he tried mightily. Going from Washington to Oakland is jumping from the frying pan into the fire.

But Campbell's just the Russell antidote the Raiders need. He works. He got better every year he's started. He's a solid mid-tier NFL starter who can do well by a team with decent talent and consistent leadership.

You learned everything you needed to know about Russell by by his prolonged rookie contract negotiation that didn't end until after the season started. Guys like that don't win for you. Oakland should have reduced their offer to reflect his declining value.

They didn't. They should not have expected better. Russell got $40 million of Al Davis' money. Campbell, who is more deserving, won't see as much, but will deliver more.

Meanwhile, the talking heads on ESPN say Russell will land on another team. For the life of me, I don't know why. Russell spent the last three years under-performing for $40 million. No coach has the skills to motivate him to fight for the second or third spot on the roster for one or two million. That goes against human nature. An owner would have to be as gullible as Al Davis to believe otherwise.

Pacman Jones signed with Cincinnati today. Maybe Mike Brown is that guy.

 (Sigh)