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The Washington Redskins are on their way to a six win season, says statistician and math wizard Paul Bessire.

Says me: there are lies, damned lies and statistics. When you say Redskins and six wins in the same sentence, I say damned statistics. You can't call my child ugly even when there are numbers to back it up.

Bessire is one of those quants who project future outcomes from past performance. Rather than running the numbers for Wall Street, Bessire projects sports. And he's simulated the 2010 NFL season 50,000 times to project the most probable outcome for the Skins.

Bessire's twist is that his projections aren't just based on tendencies based on historic data. He maps "every possible interaction between players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (homefield advantage), weather and more." His Predictalator Machine looks for match-ups between teams...and the influence of the most important player. The most important player isn't the team's biggest star in Bessire's model. It's the guy whose performance could rise above or fall below expectations to have a meaningful impact on the team.

Rookie tackle Trent Williams is the Redskins' most important player, says Bessire.

OK, I get it. Expectation based on objective reality and not on emotion. But you take every possible factor and run 50,000 simulations and the Redskins only come out two games better than last year? Aren't we under-weighing Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb here?

I challenged Bessire on that and he was kind enough to answer.

On Mike Shanahan:

"According to the Predictalator, the Redskins may win a couple more games on average than in 2009, but Washington is still not an above .500 team.

"The improvement actually has more to do with the upgrade in the coaching staff than in additional talent on the roster. Mike Shanahan’s history is thoroughly reviewed to gauge his tendencies in just about every situation as well as how much better (or worse) his players play than we would expect otherwise. Shanahan means about 1.2 additional wins to the Redskins relative to Jim Zorn. That is a very significant jump for a coaching staff in one season."

On Donovan McNabb:

"Donovan McNabb, on the other hand, only adds about 0.4 wins to the Redskins over Jason Campbell. McNabb is a 33-year-old quarterback who has hit a plateau and will likely start regressing soon. Jason Campbell is a 28-year-old quarterback who is still improving and was about as efficient as McNabb over the last two seasons, despite having inferior weapons in the passing game. McNabb now inherits those inferior weapons. It’s improvement at the position, but not a big improvement. On the season, McNabb throws for 3317 yards, 23 TDs and 12 INTs. In Oakland, Campbell throws for 3314 yards, 20 TDs and 12 INTs. Kevin Kolb, McNabb’s replacement, throws for 4059 yards, 23 TDs and 17 INTs in Philadelphia."

Redskins Hog Heaven has often criticized the Redskins front office for hyping a guy to come in and "win now" rather than building a roster from the bottom up to be a perennial winner. Now someone uses damned statistics to confirm the thought.

I hate that.

Washington Redskins game by game projection:

Source: http://www.predictionmachine.com/

For PredictionMachine's NFL Division breakdown, look here.

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(Sigh) Can people leave Albert Haynesworth alone?

In today's episode of the Haynesworth Saga, it is reported that Big Al is practicing with the Redskins scout team. That's usually reserved for the scrubs pretending to be the next opponent, the Dallas Cowboys in this case. Elite players don't usually do that, thus all the Twittersphere tweets.

I don't know what's on Mike Shanahan's mind. We're learning how he thinks as we go along. Why does it have to be bad if Haynesworth is cowboy for a day?

If I were Redskins coach, I couldn't think of a better way to prepare Trent Williams to block DeMarcus Ware than to practice against Albert Haynesworth.

Could you?

It's Cowboys Week and interest in Sunday night's Washington Redskins-Dallas Cowboys game is at an all-time high. Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth pumped the game at every opportunity last night on Thursday Night Football.

Not to be outdone is the official pizza company of the Washington Redskins that's promoting Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and Redskins owner Danny Snyder--a kinder, gentler, smiling Danny Snyder--in a commercial of the product. The ad is so good that it's destined for viewing at that new high def big screen at FedEx Field.

(Hat tip to SuperSkins Defender for pointing me there.)

How times have changed. Commercials featuring owners rather than players or coaches, albeit the two most recognizable owner faces in the NFL. Not as funny as the first one of these deals I ever saw. Tom Landry surrounded by Redskins is still my personal favorite.

Today, Anthony Brown and Greg Trippiedi will preview the 2010 Washington Redskins.  We're going to look at the changes on the offensive side of the ball in this part: the coaches and the quarterback.  In part II, we'll look at those players who will try to help Donovan McNabb win his first Super Bowl.  In part III, you'll get our in-depth predictions for the season.

Hog Heaven's 2010 Redskins Preview, Part I

Greg Trippiedi: If our 2010 Redskins look anything like our 2009 Redskins, well, hopefully it will be because Fred Davis is doing something spectacular.

There have been wholesale changes throughout the organization.  Mike Shanahan comes in as the head coach, and brings Kyle Shanahan in as the offensive coordinator.  Regardless of your feelings on either minority or nepotistic hiring tactics, it's hard to imagine finding a duo more comfortable with one another after dealing with Jim Zorn, and Sherman Smith (who weren't), and then the team bringing in Sherman Lewis, who neither Zorn nor Smith were comfortable with even being on the coaching staff.  That doesn't mean that Shanahan and Shanahan were particularly good hires, as much as it means that we couldn't have done any worse than in 2008 and 2009.  Ditto for Jim Haslett hired to be the defensive coordinator.  The Redskins may not have been able to do any worse on that side of the ball than in the last two years, so Haslett brings a fresh mentality to this team that is sorely needed.

Anthony Brown: Mike Shanahan is the best coaching hire Danny Snyder has ever made and here's why. Shanahan matches the experience of Marty Schottenheimer and has near the championship luster of Joe Gibbs. Most important, Shanahan is in Washington to coach and lead and not be be a general manager.   Kyle Shanahan may not be the best offensive coordinator the Redskins could have hired, but it works for poppa Mike. The younger Shanahan is given much credit for the Houston Texans' offensive success last year. The Texans are coached by Gary Kubiak, himself described as an offensive mastermind and once the offensive coordinator for Mike Shanahan. It's hard to tell where Kubiak ended and Kyle Shanahan began in influencing the Texans' offense. We'll get a clue September 19 when the Texans visit FedEx. Kyle and Mike Shanahan should be of one mind for the Redskins offensive scheme. That will do for now.

Unless your last name is Parcells or Belichick, no coach should have GM power. There is nothing about coaching that prepares one to be general manager. Coaching is all about leadership--weaving powerful bodies with powerful egos into cohesive units to out-do the other team. There is no All-Madden team in the NFL. Every team has strengths. Every opponent has a weakness to exploit. Coaching skills to lever your strengths against the other guy's weaknesses while channeling free spirits like Albert Haynesworth rises from wholly different career path than general managership.

Shanahan has made all the right moves as the incoming coach of a broken system. He has a well defined offensive scheme. He's established clear work rules, consistently applied. He's called out star players to lead in adhering to those rules and has not buckled under team divas who push it. He's addressed, as best as possible, the obvious weaknesses on the offensive line, running back depth, secondary and quarterback. I am a Jason Campbell fan who believes that Donovan McNabb brings intangibles to the offense that Campbell could not.

Greg Trippiedi: And of course, just doing something different with the coaching staff has brought in wholesale optimism for the entire fan base.  Well, at least it's as optimistic as you can get without actually being able to sell out the home game for archrival Dallas.  This optimism stems almost directly from the overdue decision to hire Vinny Cerrato to run the franchise.  Cerrato did some of his best work for the team from 2004 through 2007 when he worked for Joe Gibbs, but removing Gibbs and keeping practically the same front offense turned out to be a disasterous decision.  So there as well, we see changes across the board.  The man that will lead the front office is Bruce Allen, who is the one member of this operation (aside, obviously, from Mike Shanahan) who is directly reporting to Dan Snyder.  It's unlikely that Shanahan will report to Allen, but as long as Allen's opinion's as general manager of the team carry weight consistent with his title, the Redskins are in good hands.

Anthony Brown: The NFL's top GM's Bill Polian, Ozzie Newsome, Bobby Beathard grew up as scouts, matching talent for the scheme a team runs. Or they come up through the ranks as contract specialists, structuring deals under the Collective Bargaining Agreement that elude crippling salary cap penalties if a star does not pan out. Fitting talent to scheme is a skill coaches are not practiced enough to be good at it. Mike Shanahan fell victim to this at times in Denver (Tatum Bell, Maurice Clarrett). Bruce Allen makes Shanahan a better coach as he would have done for Schottenheimer, Steve Spurrier, Joe Gibbs. Jim Zorn would likely not have been hired as head coach if Allen were in the front office.

Greg Trippiedi: They are in good hands.  Also: very veteran hands.  Allen and Shanahan have both been around a while, but that's not what I mean.  I mean: veteran players.  The Redskins are full of them.  Joey Galloway.  Vonnie Holliday.  Phillip Daniels.  Artis Hicks.  Bobby Wade.  Larry Johnson.  Rex Grossman.  Ma'ake Kemoeatu.  Phillip Buchanon.  Every one of those players were in the league by 2003, which means they are all on the other side of their careers; the other side of the one we're supposed to be optimistic about.  But when you look at the core players of the 2010 Redskins, it's hard to ignore that the previous regime didn't develop many of them.

Tight ends Chris Cooley and Fred Davis will be the focal point of the offense, and they were both Redskin draft choices.  But the other main pieces of this offensive unit are Anthony Armstrong, a guy who was actually picked up off the scrap heap by Cerrato, and put on the practice squad.

Anthony Brown: None of those new veterans, including Donovan McNabb, can be called steals. All are cast-offs. This is Shanahan's and Allen's bridge team from the rubble of 2009 to the rebuild of 2011.

We ain't seen nothing yet.

Greg Trippiedi: Speaking of McNabb, you mentioned above his well-regarded intangibles.  Certainly, it is difficult to set a price on those intangibles, but it seems to me that whatever reasonable price (or cost) can agreed upon, the Redskins overshot it on McNabb.  Tangibly, McNabb and Campbell are quite similar.  If you took the numbers off of them last year, took the colors off of them, and just compared what you saw on the tape...I don't think either would impress very much, but feel like Campbell would be less ugly to watch.  At least, he might strike as the more resourceful of the two.  But you put the names back on, put the meaningful statistics back on, bring the win-loss records back in, and suddenly there's hardly any doubt which of the two is more accomplished.

I guess what I'm saying is that for every time you hear that "the stats don't matter", well, the only thing making McNabb a better player than Campbell is that their statistics suggest that this is the case.  It's often ugly (sometimes painful), but given 16 (or 14, or 12) games, Donovan always gets it done.  McNabb's most impressive statistic might be his playoff record: he had never lost his first playoff game in any season prior to last year's wild card round exit in Dallas.  In no uncertain terms, McNabb is one of the better playoff quarterbacks in NFL History.  Problem here isn't a lack of playoff success, but that the season is usually over well before playoff season.  McNabb might have all the intangibles in the world, but the only ones that are relevant here are that he's proven, and he's not Jason Campbell.

Are those intangibles worth the price of a second round pick and a third round pick?  Absolutely not, but once you jettison Campbell, there was no better quarterback available this offseason (obviously, Campbell included) than Donovan McNabb.  Which also means that he was the priciest of the bunch.  I get that.  If there's an issue with the move, it's that the Redskins didn't start the offseason by driving up the price for Campbell first, trading him, then worrying about who would actually be the team's quarterback.  This of course, leads me to a completely different conclusion than stated above: the team's actions suggest that Campbell wasn't going to be traded because it was the right thing to do, but that he would have been the quarterback in 2010 if a better opportunity hadn't come along.  Which, you know, is what Vinny Cerrato would have done in the same situation.

Except that Vinny Cerrato would have drafted Jimmy Clausen with the 4th pick.

Anthony Brown: You said Vinny Cerrato and Jimmy Clausen and now I feel sick.

In Part I, Anthony and Greg looked at the biggest changes on the Redskins this offseason, all of which on the offensive side.  This is Part II, which will look at the players who will be helping McNabb on offense, as well as the defense.  In Part III, you'll get our predictions for the Redskins this season.

Hog Heaven's 2010 Redskins Preview, Part II

Offensive Discussion, Continued

Greg Trippiedi: The Redskins offense had two major consistent problems last year that transcended and, in my opinion, overshadowed both Campbell's issues and the playcalling circus.  The first was the offensive line being unable to block anybody.  The second, which isn't given the credit it should for de-railing the Redskins season, is that the receivers could not get open no matter what coverage the defense played.  Thing was, after the Redskins shook their three week long adversity to blocking three man rushes, the line actually had some really good pass blocking games at home.  This is especially true when you consider that they were working with the worst pass blocking backs on the Redskins: Mike Sellers, Marcus Mason and Quinton Ganther.

Anthony Brown: Addressing the offensive line with limited means is another of the right moves that Shanahan and Allen made. As you point out, Snyderrato would not have done as much.

Will it work? Trent Williams looks positive. Maybe he'll be as effective as a rookie as Michael Oher (who Cerrato said last year he would not have taken) or as Brian Orakpo on defense. But he's a rookie and will look like it at points this year.

Jammal Brown is the right move in light of alternatives on the roster. Upgrade to us, expendable to the Super Bowl Saints is reason for pause. Kory Lichtensteiger comes from Denver with Shanahan. I figure he's here because of what he knows of Shanny's zone blocking scheme. The Cardinals seemed to push him around a bit last night. The others are journeymen. I was surprised Shanahan dropped Edwin Williams.

Greg Trippiedi: Down two picks because they moved to address the quarterback position and drafted Jeremy Jarmon last year with this years' pick, the Redskins couldn't address both issues.  So they did the best they could, and invested significant resources to fix the offensive line, bringing in Kory Lichtensteiger, Artis Hicks, Jammal Brown, and Trent Williams.  They addressed the receivers as well, but very much on the cheap.  Heck, Anthony Armstrong, who appears to be the biggest improvement to the receivers, was already on the team at the end of last year.  Then they drafted Terence Austin in the 7th round, who was supposed to make an impact on special teams, only to find out that he would make a pretty darn good third receiver.

So while we can be hopeful that the Redskins upgraded two disaster positions in the offseason, they only really were able to invest in the offensive line.  Anything these receivers can do that helps us improve from last year is gravy.

Anthony Brown: Wide receiver has been a black hole for the Redskins -- a lot of NFL teams, actually -- for a long time. They've tried everything to fix it.

Heath Shuler, Michael Westbrook and Desmond Howard were supposed to lead the return to glory in the 'nineties. On paper they were the perfect fit for Norv Turner's downfield offense. Charlie Casserly was considered brilliant for his deft maneuvers to land them.

Lets turn on the wayback machine. At the end of his college career, Shuler was the Heisman runner-up and fans of the Tennessee Volunteers if his performance would  ever be matched by the man who replaced him--Peyton Manning. Michael Westbrook and Desmond Howard figured in one of the most famous NCAA games of all time, Colorado 27, Michigan 26 (1993, Buffaloes QB-Kordell Stewart, Wolverines QB-Todd Collins).

Howard flames out in Washington but went on to fame on special teams for the Packers. Shuler flamed out and went on to special teams in Congress. Westbrook was an ok receiver, but never the performer Norv Turner needed. (More famous for punching out Stephen Davis who cast aspersions of Westbrook's manliness). Turner found a stop-gap in Henry Ellard ('94-98).

Greg Trippiedi: They've done a bit better than that recently.  There was Santana Moss' 2005 season.  Antwaan Randle El had his moments (none of them on special teams).  Brandon Lloyd had a really nice catch in the preseason.  I briefly remember David Patten being here.  Hey, whatever happened to Jimmy Farris?

Anthony Brown: Rod Gardner was the most successful Skins receiver drafted this decade. The skins brought in Lloyd to replace him. They also signed Patten when Gibbs came back. They scrapped the barrel to work out Todd Pinkston and underused Keenan McCardell. (Not counting Moss who was traded for Lav Coles. They were both No. 1 receivers.

You can count on one hand the team that have effective No. 1 & 2 wide receivers. The Redskins won't be one of them in 2010.

Anthony Brown --

THE ANSWER: Chris Wilson, Lorenzo Alexander, Chris Horton, Reed Doughty, H.B. Blades

Greg Trippiedi: Mike Shanahan is not the most straightforward character either of us will deal with when it comes to the Redskins, but he's been nothing short of direct and honest when releasing his depth charts to the public.  People were concerned that Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly were listed as third WRs because of a motivational tactic.  It may have worked as such a tactic -- Thomas made the team -- but it was also the truth.  They listed them at third team because they were third team players.

To compare our depth on defense to our depth on offense would be downright unfair.  Our late round draft picks, forget the ones that worked out, all were on the defensive end for many, many years.  The late round picks on offense were usually quarterbacks (Jordan Palmer, Colt Brennan) or fullbacks (Nemo Broughton, Manuel White, Rock Cartwright).  Those players don't have anywhere to go to make an impact on offense, and Cartwright was about as useful a pick as could have been.  He's in Oakland now.

Our linebackers are going to be a strength with or without those late picks, even though Andre Carter could end up being a weakness.  We only have eight of them, but they are all going to get their chances to go after the quarterback, particularly Rocky McIntosh.  HB Blades is a lot better than Perry Riley right now, but the Redskins need Riley to become a starter to save this draft class.  He, along with Trent Williams, is one of just two draft picks from THIS CLASS who made it through cutdown day.  Mike Shanahan said that you've had a sound draft if half of your players made the roster, but only 5 players from his last 5 classes in Denver failed to make the roster.  One of those players was Domenik Hixon, who plays for the Giants now.  Shanahan basically equaled that total in his first draft with Washington.  But I suppose it's okay, since Denver was so loaded thanks to great drafts that they have won the division every year since 2004.  I haven't checked though, it would just seem to make sense given that awesome track record.

This 3-4 alignment is going to greatly increase the amount of unblocked pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which should result in a rebound year for LaRon Landry and a career year for Carlos Rogers.  That's really good.  DeAngelo Hall looked good in the preseason, and if he can keep up, this secondary is going to be fierce.  If Hall slips in coverage, there isn't anyone on the depth chart capable of replacing him this year.  Justin Tryon was traded to the Colts for a pick because he wasn't going to make Jim Haslett's defense.  Tryon was the nickel back last year: that's a sign of progress, I believe.

Coming very soon: Part III, where Anthony and Greg make their predictions for the 2010 Redskins' season.

Ah, Albert Haynesworth. Can we make it through a week without some blown-up story about Big Al?

Apparently not.

Stories circulated that the Washington Redskins were on the verge of trading Haynesworth to the Tennessee Titans earlier this week. The story died a quick death when Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan said Haynesworth is not being traded. Tennessee Titans head coach Jeff Fisher was decidedly ho-hum about the topic.

I mean, coaches wouldn't lie about about a thing like this, would they?

Yet it was the second time since April that a rumor of the imminent trade of Haynesworth to another sucker team was born. What on Earth is going on? Here are five theories for the story:

1. Someone's in a snit again. Trading Haynesworth on the cheap is just the sort of quick fix that has bedeviled the Redskins since 1999. There are only two fixers around Redskins Park with the juice to pull this off. The first has done this to the team before. The second is here to keep that sort of thing from happening again. Must I name names? Maybe calls were made before cooler heads prevailed.

2. Messing with Albert's head. You know how it goes. New boss comes in and suddenly you're not the star anymore. You wistfully remember how good it was at your old job--the one you dumped for better money without giving them much of a chance for a counter-offer. So your GM calls call the folks at your old job just to prove that they barely remember your name. (If this hasn't happened to you yet, stay tuned. It will.) Call this the grass is greener at FedEx Field theory.

3. Messing with the Cowboys' heads. Is Haynesworth staying or going? Is Haynesworth playing or inactive? Is he a nose tackle or defensive end? Is he motivated or pouty? I like this theory. If Jason Garrett has to burn brain cells to construct two different blocking schemes for whether Haynesworth is in or out, that's less time thinking about how to beat the Redskins. That works for me.

4. Doing homework. It's every NFL general manager's job to have a first-hand feel for the value of the players on the roster. Trade value is part the assessment. If Bruce Allen weren't working the phones to gauge other team's interest in Haynesworth, or anyone else, he would derelict in his duties. It's due diligence, or what the Boy Scouts call "Be Prepared." The NFL 2010 trading deadline is October 19.

5. Boost the TV audience for Redskins-Cowboys. Nobody expects the Redskins to win Sunday night. The team has to manufacture more drama than Mad Men.

Put aside any notion of Haynesworth as a locker room cancer. Donovan McNabb spoke up for Big Al as essential for any hope of winning. Titan players said they would welcome Haynesworth back to the fold, if he ever returns to the fold. Not that Haynesworth isn't a distraction. But he's labor in conflict with management. Players side with the laborer.

The Titans made clear last Spring that Big Al wasn't welcome back, or rather, wasn't worth valuable draft picks. If Big Al wants to change minds, he has to be successful in the 3-4 defense. That will boost demand for his services in 2011 from both 3-4 and 4-3 teams. This is a virtual contract year for Albert. The Redskins won't let him go without value in return. His fastest way off the team is to have a good year right here while avoiding episodes of bad behavior.

Tsk tsk.

Stomping Dallas Cowboys in the head is something we don't condone around here.

Point After: With the departure of Colt Brennan, Albert Haynesworth has become the traffic magnet for Redskins blog sites, drawing more eyeballs than news about, oh, Donovan McNabb. He seems to be the face of the franchise for the moment. There was a brief flirtation with T.J. Houshmandzadeh last weekend. Hits were off the chart for our stories that he might be headed to Washington.

We won't speak of Who's Your Momma again while hoping the next newsworthy Haynesworth stories involve sacks, hurry-ups and turnovers. With real football starting tonight, the soap opera should fade away.

(Sigh) ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that free agent Wide Receiver TJ Houshmandzadeh reached agreement to join the Baltimore Ravens.

"Houshmandzadeh had multiple opportunities but ultimately decided to join a team in the same division as the team that drafted him -- the Cincinnati Bengals."

Now there you go. Work all morning to post a story about Houshmandzadeh to the Redskins and Shefter ruins it all seven minutes after you publish. Schefter reported that the Skins released Byron Westbrook and that turned out to be wrong. Maybe this will be wrong, too.

I'm taking the rest of the day off, promising to cry over this in no more than one beer. Read the depressing news at ESPN.com. We'll be here when you get back.

Move on, folks. Nothing to see here.