15/32 for 171 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 sack.  That was Donovan McNabb's line for this game.  I could not have been happier with the way he played.

Well, that's an overstatement.  McNabb left a lot of completions on the table in this one, and it would have been a lot nicer if he completed those passes.  But considering that he was victimized by his receivers throughout the entirity of this game, he managed the entire game quite well, and played like the best player on an offense that is going to make 15/32 a reality more often than not.

One thing that stuck out to me as this game progressed was that Kyle Shanahan is going to have to undergo the largest learning curve of anyone involved with the Redskins.  I don't think his play selection was poor, necessarily, I just think he went in there with the mentality that he could call anything and that it would work, because that's just the way it's always been, and between McNabb, Portis, and Cooley, I mean the players would bail him out anyway.  Kyle was aggressive in nature without really attacking, and the multi dimensional attack we keep hearing about was very Zornian: Cooley and Moss are our best offensive players, so we get them the football often.

Things worked better in this game than normal, even though offensive efficiency was at or below levels established with a similar group in recent years.  For one thing, credit the Dallas defense.  When you look at all the blue chippers they have on that unit: two first round corners, two first round OLBs, Jay Ratliff, and then we have to match up with Trent Williams and Jammal Brown and Fred Davis and Mike Sellers, and then we have guys like Joey Galloway and Roydell Williams trying to break down their coverages, well, the best match-up we had all day was Santana Moss on Terence Newman.  It's been that way for six seasons now.

Dallas still has no idea how to take Chris Cooley away from us after all these years, which I suppose is good.  Captain Chaos was a big part of the pre-halftime gameplan, but he was also McNabb's outlet receiver on desperation throws.  Seven of McNabb's 15 completions picked up yards in chunks (greater than 12 yards).  Three of those were to Cooley, four of those were to Santana Moss, none of those were to anyone else.  McNabb's legs are less dangerous than Jason Campbell's legs (at least he can slide), but they are still the third most dangerous weapon in our passing game.  That's something that hasn't changed since Jim Zorn's first day.  We'll see how the team can get Fred Davis involved now that Chris Cooley is back.

Mike Sellers played a lot of snaps in this game, coming off his injury in the preseason.  Mike Sellers was not very good.  He didn't sustain one block the entire game that I saw.  Sometimes he hit someone and bounced off, other times he initiated contact and ended up on the ground.  Twice he was asked to block DeMarcus Ware, neither time did he survive initial contact.  Ware isn't a great player against the run, speaking generally, but our blocking schemes turned him into one for the balance of this game.  Chris Cooley and Fred Davis both executed some very difficult blocks in this game in both the running and the passing game.  Davis, however, missed an easy one and got called for holding another time.  Cooley and Derrick Dockery both blew assignments to where they did not know whether we were running or passing on the play (Dockery's resulted in illegal man downfield, Cooley's just in an Anthony Spencer tackle at the LOS.

Donovan McNabb's best plays in this game came behind the line of scrimmage.  I didn't think he was great (or even an improvement) in the pre-snap phase, as Dallas was getting great jumps on his snap count the whole night.  Their favorite defensive play was double-A gap pressure, which was designed to exploit our greatest weakness, our interior OL.  They had great success getting inside of Casey Rabach, but they had only one sack and almost no charted pressures from interior rushers such as Ratliff and Keith Brooking and Bradie James.  That doesn't make any sense.  If the center was almost useless out there, how in the world did Dallas fail to touch McNabb despite playing on our side of the LOS all night?

It's simple: Clinton Portis killed everyone.  Portis didn't play against Dallas in either of the two games last year, which is a large reason why the protection was so inexcusable and why Dallas held us without an offensive TD in those games.  McNabb had adequate time on every single passing play in this game, which was a marked improvement from the past two Dallas games.  It didn't matter what blitzes Dallas diled up or what players Casey Rabach wasn't blocking, there were zero wasted plays in this game due to aborted snaps or untouched pass rushers.  In fact, I counted one untouched rusher the entire night for the Cowboys.  This is the equivalent of going from 45 demerits on a driving test to just 1 demerit on an identical test two days later.  Portis was the biggest reason for this.

McNabb, himself, was another big reason for improved protection.  McNabb has the benefit of playing exclusively in systems where they take their pass protection seriously, and he played like a guy who expected his running back to go drill the linebacker who had run right through the A-gap.  McNabb didn't exactly have open receivers running through the Dallas secondary (or anywhere else), but the execution (timing) of the plays was not disrupted by anything that was happening at the line of scrimmage.  Every once in awhile, the Cowboys would flush McNabb, but he was usually able to escape to his right side, where he is still able to make a play.

Let's give it up for the rookie, Trent Williams, as well.  He had little help on DeMarcus Ware the whole night, and Ware was largely an irrelevant player against the pass most of the night.  Ware had one sack against Williams and one other hit on the quarterback while rushing against the rookie on the blind side, but at the end of the day he had no holding penalties, just one false start, and held one of the games' premier pass rushers to a number of meaningful plays that can be counted on one hand.  Anthony Spencer did more damage than Ware, but he also had better match-ups: Jamaal Brown, Stephon Heyer, Fred Davis, and Chris Cooley.  Dallas isn't going to be happy with the play of their OLBs when they go to the film because Portis was in a mad dash for the interior OL on pretty much every play to try to get Jay Ratliff before Rabach held him.  That put Ware and Spencer in one v ones the entire game, and all it got them was a third and long sack in a punting situation, and a number of pressures that can be counted on one hand.  In the event they did get pressure, McNabb's mobility was plenty sufficient to get out of the pocket which was pretty good all night.

Any success the Redskins had in the running game usually involved one of their tight ends beating either Ware or Spencer and opening up a lane to run the Shanahan stretch play.  Sometimes, Dallas overpursued the front side, in which case just one good backside block by Jamaal Brown or Artis Hicks or Derrick Dockery could open up a running lane.  Neither Portis or Johnson appeared to be a better back in the first game of the season, as the failures were mostly on the interior OL and when Sellers, Davis, or Cooley got killed on the outside.  For Sellers, that was every play. Getting him out of there in the second half was a big reason that the Redskins started to break longer runs.  DeMarcus Ware's injury didn't hurt.  Clearly though, this running game figures to be much more like the Kyle Shanahan running game that struggled most of last year in Houston.  We just have to hope that Keiland Williams is our Arian Foster.  Neither Keiland Williams or Larry Johnson is much of a pass protector.  Williams was confused on what he was seeing a few times, but was willing and able to block.  Johnson didn't appear willing to hit anyone, usually running right past defenders to release into the route.

Only two receivers caught a pass in this game: Moss and Anthony Armstrong.  Armstrong was thrown at five times and only caught one ball.  That would be a bad day.  Roydell Williams and Joey Galloway were thrown a ball each.  Williams' was pretty uncatchable.  Galloway, being a veteran, probably should have adjusted his route depth to help out his quarterback.  He ran the play as designed, and McNabb badly underthrew him under dire pressure.  Ultimately, when it came down to the end of a close game and there was no hiding intentions any longer, the Redskins had Galloway on the bench and went with Anthony Armstrong, Roydell Williams, and Santana Moss as the three receivers in the game for McNabb.  Remember, Devin Thomas was active and available.  Brandon Banks was inactive and unavailable.  It's just one week, but when you look at the two receivers that Kyle Shanahan trusts the least when he needs a first down, Galloway and Thomas are probably them.  Though Armstrong and Williams did little to suggest that they should continue to be trusted in big situations.

There was not a major difference between Jammal Brown and Stephon Heyer at right tackle.  I think Brown was a little bit better in this game, but it's splitting hairs.  We ran at Brown's side, but never at Heyer's.  Both were beaten in protection one or two times, but for the most part, won their individual match-ups.  Trent Williams was not a significant player in the run game this time, but boy, was he the man on that one screen.  He drove Gerald Sensabaugh to the airport.  Dockery and Rabach were Dockery and Rabach.  Hicks wasn't good, but he proved to be more versatile than I thought he would be.  He and Dockery were each given a chance to pull and lead a power play.  If anything, Kyle's playcalling makes greater use of man blocking concepts than Jim Zorn's did.  The only time a linemen ever pulled under Zorn was on a toss play.  This team is still primarily a zone blocking one obviously, but the only place where this team looked any different from last years was in terms of pulling guards.  Hicks missed a few blocks, but he also made some difficult ones.  He got lost in space on one of his two pulls, wasting a block where Cooley just stoned DeMarcus Ware.  Casey Rabach was typically good at the second level, when the play developed that far.

Kory Lichtensteiger played some at left guard for Dockery, and did fine.  Not great, just fine.  He was driven back into the backfield once or twice.  Made a nice block or two.  He's a very different player than Dockery, his one pull was the most successful play that we pulled a lineman on.  Mobility is one of his strengths, whereas lower body power is a weakness.  That was the biggest difference.  Oh, and he can probably catch better than Sellers.

Meaningful Statistics

I was going to do a plus minus on the pass blockers, but it would probably be so inaccurate because at some point I stopped noting great blocks by Williams and Portis and started expecting them.  That didn't actually mean they were blocking worse in the second half than the first, it was completely a perception thing.  And Portis and Williams blew away everyone else.  Just imagine a list where I praise them and everyone else ends up pretty close to 0, give or take.  Then subtract seven for Mike Sellers.  Bam!  That's your plus/minus chart for Dallas.

Here are the receiving stats on Moss and Cooley, who mattered in this game:

• Moss: Targeted 10 times.  Made 6 receptions.  Drew illegal contact on a seventh. 3 intended incompletions, one dropped.  One completion unsuccessful (quick screen).  77 receiving yards plus 5 yards attributed for penalty = 8.2 yards per target.
• Cooley: Targeted 9 times.  Made 6 receptions.  Two completions unsuccessful. 3 intended incompletions  80 receiving yards = 8.9 yards per target.

In a very high number of ways, the defense that took the field against Dallas was a lot like the Redskins defense of years past.  The game plan was to bend, but to not break.  To try and prevent the big play.  Hey, let's create some turnovers!  And to an extent, none of this is surprising because a lot of the players are the same guys who have been playing on this defense for many years.

From an outcome based approach, the difference between this defensive game and any game that Greg Blache called against Dallas was simply a DeAngelo Hall strip and return that gave the Redskins their only TD.  Hall may be the one guy on the defense who could have done that last year and wouldn't have looked painfully out of his element doing so.  The story was pretty much the same: conceed first downs, prevent big plays (71 out of 75 plays for Dallas went for 15 yards or fewer), let the oddly-conservative offense that Dallas runs stay on the field, and the Redskins offense on the sideline.  The only way the defensive outcome is different last year is that last year, Dallas almost certainly pulls that game out at the end.

From a process-based approach, things could not have been more different.  The corners were excellent.  All of them.  DeAngelo Hall had his best or second best game as a Redskin: at least his best since 2008.  Carlos Rogers was, for this game at least, back to early 2008 coverage number levels.  His break-up of a Roy Williams pass in the third quarter where Romo had better protection than any other play of this game was excellent.  The best play in run support, maybe by any Redskin in this game, was made on a third and two toss play by...Byron Westbrook.  But the most pleasant surprise on defense may have been the play of Philip Buchanon.

The corners were better than the safeties.  Three safeties played in the game for the Redskins.  Chris Horton didn't play any snaps in the box, and thus, wasn't a particularly useful player when he was on the field.  I thought Reed Doughty and LaRon Landry were both hit and miss.  Both made their plays: Landry made many more plays, including multiple touchdown saving tackles.  Ultimately the difference in their days was circumstancial.  LaRon Landry needs to be an impact player on the pass rush to have value in the box, and in this game, he had one pressure on Tony Romo in the second quarter on a beautifully designed blitz.  He had more opportunities than that to make a play and simply did not.  I loved his game against the run, however.  He was our best run defender in this game, including linebackers and defensive lineman.  Doughty didn't make any plays against the run, because he is playing Landry's old position.  I don't know what Jim Haslett's defensive terminology is, but what showed up on tape in this game was a fairly traditional "free" and "strong" safety.  The free was hardly ever in the box.  The strong was out of the box plenty.  Doughty, I thought, was good in coverage, though if he doesn't take the bait on that run action at the goal line, Romo is at least going to have to look somewhere else besides Miles Austin.  Hall thought he had help on that play, and he was right to believe that.

This defensive line could be a problem.  Last year, man for a man, we were better than other teams and other lines we played.  This year, we have just a couple of match-up advantages on the DL.  Adam Carriker didn't play a ton of snaps, but was healthy and effective when he played.  Kedric Golston had one play on the goal line when he shed Doug Free and blew up the play in the backfield.  Otherwise, he wasn't anywhere to be found on the tape.  Phillip Daniels had a single pressure on Tony Romo, but even that comes with the cavaet that he's just not athletic enough anymore to go get a quarterback.  Vonnie Holliday, who was the only defensive lineman used in our pass rush scheme -- which is awesome, by the way -- had himself two pressures.  Holliday is the best pass rusher this team has on the DL not named "Haynesworth", but understand that his role is circumstancial.  If this is the way things are, he's going to kill the rest of the DL in pressures because of his usage on third downs.  Haynesworth made two or three hustle plays in this game, but he was fairly decisively neutralized by the Cowboys defensive line.  The Cowboys ran the ball nearly every time he was in the game, so don't blame Albert for the lack of pass rush early.

Schematically, the Cowboys decided that Hall was the weak link of our defense, and they designed a lot of plays to force him to make open field tackles against bigger opponents.  He passed the test.  Carlos Rogers had 8 targets for 36 yards allowed (4.5 YPT).  Hall had 16 targets (the most I've ever charted for a single player in a game) for 88 yards (5.5 YPT).  Phillip Buchanon gave up just one yard on three targets.  Even though Miles Austin beat everyone on this list (except Buchanon, I guess) multiple times, this was a decisive victory for the Redskins corners.

We have three excellent pass rushing linebackers.  Between Andre Carter, Brian Orakpo, and Lorenzo Alexander, the Redskins' 1 DL 4/5 LB pressure schemes are so very dangerous.  What I noticed -- and I could be wrong -- is that when the Redskins went to a dime defense, that they actually pulled London Fletcher off the field.  I did notice Rocky McIntosh out there when Chris Horton or Byron Westbrook or Kevin Barnes was in as the 6th DB.  But this appears to be a down and distance thing with Fletcher.  He's not going to play every play of this season for us, which at his age, is probably good.  When Rocky McIntosh is flat beating Andre Gurode on the blitz, you know that Dallas is in trouble.  Give Doug Free of Dallas some credit: one of the key match-ups they could not afford to lose was Free against Andre Carter and Free won that battle all game long.  Free was less effective against Lorenzo Alexander.  I also thought replacement LG Montrae Holland had an excellent game, as well as most of the Dallas offensive line.  Almost entirely all of the big pressures on Tony Romo came against Alex Barron.

Quickly...

The blown coverage on Miles Austin at the end of the game was a Brian Orakpo mis-read.  But I don't think he read it wrong so much as he didn't know/understand our coverage.  We were playing a pretty conservative three-deep on fourth and ten with Rogers as a slot-safety to the three receiver (left) side.  Buchanon, Orakpo, and Fletcher had underneath responsibility: prevent the first down.  Both linebackers ran with Jason Witten on a short cross.  I know Orakpo was trying to take away Romo's throwing window to Witten, but he can't follow him in that coverage.  He has to turn him loose.

The Redskins played quarters coverage (or maybe even five-deep) on the last play of the game.  Dallas responded with a three vertical concept in the back of the end zone with Roy Williams running an over (crossing) route from left to right, and Marion Barber first chipping and then running the flat.  The design of the play is to put the underneath defender, McIntosh, in a bind by giving him something to watch (Barber) while sneaking a far more dangerous receiver behind him into the front of the end zone.  That was D-Hall's zone, but Hall had read the route combo on that side and had come inside to help Doughty with Miles Austin, the primary receiver against any sort of pressure look from the Redskins.  Williams got open in Hall's zone essentially because he started on the other side of the field: there is simply no key other than to communicate the route.  But the guy who would have been responsible for the communication, 52, was distracted by Barber, an irrelivant part of the play.

And of course, one second into that play, Orakpo had already ended it, drawing holding.

Any issues vs. the run in this game were purely contain/tackling issues.  I thought the LBs were excellent against the run in this game.  The defensive line had a couple of gap issues (looking at you Golston and Haynesworth), and for a guy who played most of the game, Ma'ake Kemoeatu only had an impact (positive or negative) on a couple of plays.  Dallas never challenged him on the interior.  When they ran that power draw against us, it was something we were willing to concede from the 1-5 front.  3 yards and a first down for 45 seconds of clock?  Sounds good to me.

There's a right way and a wrong way to go about preventing the big play.  The wrong way is to not match your personnel with the opponents, let the quarterback know who is going to be open pre-snap, and have the corners play so soft that the offense can't help itself to throw the ball to the outside.  The correct way is to force the offenses' hand.  Pressure the crap out of their quarterback, give them pass defense fronts they've never seen before, and make them take the game out of their quarterbacks hands on third down for fear of the alternative.  Dallas was very successful in third downs all day, but could not overcome their propensity to waste plays trying to get Jerry's new toys some meaningless statistics.  In this game, we prevented the big play not through being scared of being beat deep, but by trading advantages in time of possession to force Dallas into a schematic shell.

Dallas really did dominate us statistically in this game, but we dared them to stay on schedule and take their yardage in chunks.  They simply couldn't play like that for more than 35 yards at a time.  A more disciplined team beats us fairly decisively in this one.  For Dallas, it was the perfect strategy.

Defensive Plus/Minus

Teams grade players using a plus/minus system.  I don't like it because it's fairly subjective: not so much that a good play with a good outcome isn't obvious in the game film, but that I can only grade what I see, and even though I spend hours a week watching and re-watching, I'm going to miss good plays in the plus/minus.  It's a necessary evil, so take these ratings for what they are.

1. Brian Orakpo (+8/-3) +5
2. LaRon Landry (+6/-2) +4
3. DeAngelo Hall (+7/-4) +3
4. Carlos Rogers (+4/-2) +2
5. Rocky McIntosh (+4/-2) +2
6. Lorenzo Alexander (+2/-0) +2
7. Vonnie Holliday (+2/-0) +2
8. Phillip Buchanon (+3/-1) +2
9. Byron Westbrook (+1/-0) +1
10. Adam Carriker (+1/-0) +1
11. Ma'ake Kemoeatu (+1/-0) +1
12. London Fletcher (+1/-0) +1
13. Albert Haynesworth (+1/-1) 0
14. Kedric Golston (+1/-2) -1
15. Reed Doughty (+0/-2) -2

Who knows. This game might have killed the Dallas Cowboys' dream of playing in the Super Bowl in Jerryworld.

I was wrong--about the Cowboys beating the Redskins at home on Sunday Night Football. And I'm sorry. I'm glad I was wrong. For that I'm not sorry.

Does it count when the Cowboys help you win?

The Redskins weren't perfect either, but the Cowboy's gaffs came at the worst possible times:

• End of the first half on a fumble by Dallas running back Tashard Choice, recovered by Skins DB DeAngelo Hall and returned for a touchdown.
• End of the game when an offensive holding penalty nullified the go-ahead touchdown reception by WR Roy Williams.

The Mike Shanahan era is off to a good start with a game plan that was not brilliant, but an astute use of the talent on the team, especially the defense. Dallas gained 282 passing yards and a touchdown, and 103 rushing yards, but the Redskins brought pressure to kill drives (five of 13 third downs converted) and disrupt plays. The Skins front seven exploited the Cowboys offensive line. Tony Romo handled that pressure to give Dallas its first lead as time ran out, only to see it evaporate when back-up OT Alex Barron couldn't handle Brian Orakpo.

The touchdown-challenged 2009 Redskins averaged 16 points per game. The 2010 Redskins could not do as well, perhaps because they were playing the Cowboys defense. Trent Williams and the offensive line held up. Though QB Donovan McNabb was under pressure, the line allowed no sacks. McNabb showed no ill-effects from his preseason ankle injury.

But for much of the game, the entire passing offense consisted of McNabb to Santana Moss and to Chris Cooley. Clinton Portis gained 63 yards on 18 carries. Yet he was not ineffective. His key play was an 18 yard fourth quarter gain for first down after his prior 10 yard run was nullified by a penalty on Chris Cooley. (Cooley was called for an illegal forward motion. It appeared on the replay that he set for the snap before moving forward. Whatever!)

Portis' run gave Washington possession for another series. Washington ended that series with a Graham Gano 49 yard field goal that forced Dallas to score a touchdown to win. More important, Dallas had less than two minutes to score that touchdown. Thus, the Cowboys ran out of time to attempt a score on fourth down because of Portis' 18 yard first down conversion.

The misty fog settled over FedEx Field as the game ended was somehow the right atmosphere for the drama.

It was worth missing Mad Men for this.

Point after: Keep the gold pants. The colors of this team are burgundy and gold. Burgundy and white only worked in the 1980s.

Game balls to Portis and to defensive coordinator Jim Haslett

In Part I, Anthony and Greg looked at the biggest changes on the Redskins this offseason, all of which on the offensive side.  In part II, which will look at the players who will be helping McNabb on offense, as well as the defense.  This is part III, where you'll get our predictions for the Redskins this season.

Hog Heaven's 2010 Redskins Preview, Part III

Anthony Brown's 2010 Redskins Prediction

The Redskins' won-loss record since 2000 averages 7-9. They should revert to type and finish 8-8 this season. That won't make diehard fans happy. They think Shanahan plus McNabb equals automatic playoffs. This unwarranted sense of entitlement is why those people in Baltimore don't like us.

To say 8-8 isn't a bold prediction. So how about this: the Shannyskins will get off to a fast start, winning three of their first four games. Dallas won't be one of those wins. We're going to be swept by the Cowboys and split with the Eagles and Giants.

The Houston Texans visit for game two. They'll be emotionally hung over after their Week One game against the Colts. They can be had. The Shanahans should have insight in how Texans coach Gary Kubiak thinks. That will pay off in turnovers and points.

The Rams are in town for game three. If we can crush them for a 9-7 beat down under Jim Zorn, we should be able to finesse Sam Bradford for a 21-6 win. Donovan McNabb has something to prove when the Skins visit the Eagles for game four. Washington will win even if McNabb has to catch his own touchdown passes. It gets tougher after that, with the Packers and the Colts next up on the schedule and the Vikings later in the season.

After the first six games or so, there'll be enough video on the Skins for remaining opponents to see what the Shanahans are up to and to counter it. However, there is a dream scenario where Washington could win nine or 10 games. It involves Albert Haynesworth, of all people, as game-changer.

The Indianapolis Colts visit for Sunday Night Football on October 17. The Tennessee Titans come a-calling November 21. Putting a big hit or two on Peyton Manning on national TV with every GM is watching should motivate even Big Al, especially with the trading deadline just two days later.

An impressive showing against your old team, where you still maintain a home and would like to return in 2011, might change a few minds in the Titans front office. If Washington upsets anyone, it's likely to be one, or both, of these two teams.

Thank the scheduling gods that we don't play Oakland. The Raiders alone are not so hot. The Raiders with Jason Campbell are scary. The Redskins have no more chance to beat Campbell than they did to beat Norv Turner when he returned with the Raiders in 2005. The Skins were up by 10 point at the half in that game. Then stuff happened.

It's the Snyder jinx where the people you dump on come back to haunt you. It worked for Brad Johnson, Norv Turner, Stephen Davis, Gregg Williams, Al Saunders, LaVar Arrington and Jon Jansen. Johnson and Williams already have Super Bowl rings. Turner is closer to one than Snyder. There's a price to be paid for Campbell's treatment  and there's nothing Shanahan could have done about it anyway.

Redskins coaches not named Gibbs don't last more than two years under Dan Snyder. No prediction on whether Shanahan is still here after 2011.

Greg Trippiedi's 2010 Redskins Prediction

Writing passionately about a large-market football team offers a chance to be competitive every year.  If you're a Bills fan, you know you aren't competing this year.  This year, the Redskins aren't in too much different a spot than the New York Jets were at this time last year.  That team wasn't expected to do much, and it might have finished 7-9 if the Colts and Bengals had gone all out to beat them.  As it was, they won 11 games, including playoffs.  That's a reason to be optimistic about the Redskins' chances this year: in the NFL, most teams are in the middle of the pack, so you don't have to be a great team to achieve great things.

Objective predictions from this team have ranged from 6.7 wins to 9.4 wins.  That's a large range because the team has undergone so much change, and different systems are going to interpret the change in different ways.  Heck, we as fans are all going to interpret change in different ways.  But I already know, before looking at the schedule, that the Redskins are very likely to finish somewhere between 7 and 10 wins.

That's an accurate prediction for at least 14 NFL teams, so let's see if we can't narrow that down further.  We're looking at a defense that will probably rate in the same range that it did in the last two years.  We'll play smarter than last year's defense, and we'll be more opportunistic than last year's defense, but there isn't quite the same level of talent as on last years defense.  Cornelius Griffin is oft-injured, but this team will miss his presence on the field.  Albert Haynesworth is unlikely to play at the level he did last year, and that's even assuming he plays as much as he did last year.  Adam Carriker is a nice pickup, who is also oft injured (he's the Griffin replacement).  They're thinner as well, with Phillip Daniels a year older.  What that unit gives up from last year, the secondary should take back in overall unit-wide improvement.  The key to any 3-4 defense is the linebackers, which typify this defense: sound tacklers, good enough overall, but with a weak link in coverage (converted DE Carter).

So if we're predicting that the offense isn't going to get a lot of help from the defense to score points, then whether they win 7 games or 10 games depends on the quality of the offense (and an improved kicking game).  And I think the decisions that the offensive coaching staff made to release a bunch of competent lineman and keep Will Montgomery instead is going to come back to bite them in the long run.  I think the offensive line is vastly improved -- perhaps even good -- but there's little evidence it can survive injury better than an average line.  Trent Williams needs to hold up all year, if only because Jammal Brown cannot.  Artis Hicks is a starter on this team, and he can be exploited.  Casey Rabach has been dreadful within the division.  There's not a lot of depth behind them -- because they cut it all.  Still, good tackles are what this team needs to succeed, and they have that.

The argument for extending Donovan McNabb's playing career is that he's finally going to have help in the form of a running game to lean on.  I think that will really help Donovan if he has that.  This is clearly a run-blocking line first and foremost.  So if Clinton Portis can have a big rebound year, they'll probably hit the upper limit of that win range.  If Portis struggles again, they're closer to the lower limit.  Passing efficiency is always king, but in our case, it's dependent on our rushing efficiency.  If we can't run, we won't be able to sustain a passing game.  That's not McNabb's fault, that would be a failure of his teammates.

I feel generally optimistic about their chances, but reality is reality.  Coming off of an 0-6 record in the NFC East, it's going to be hard to improve back to even 3-3 in the division, and almost impossible to do it without a win against Dallas tomorrow night.  At 2-4 in the division, and at 2-2 in the AFC South (as Anthony predicted), the Redskins would have to run the table against their NFC opponents to win 10 games.  I think this ability to gameplan is one of Mike Shanahan's biggest strength, but I'm not predicting miracles so much as an incremental increase.  St. Louis is only a little bit improved and Tampa Bay isn't at our level just yet.  I think Donovan can go off against Green Bay's defense, but he's going to succumb to the pressure of the Vikings line.  Rex Grossman could be an asset against NFC North competition, having played in that division the first six years of his career.  He can beat those teams if we need him.

I like this team to suffer few real disappointments this season, but ultimately, they probably aren't good enough to make a splash in the NFC without winning at least three NFC East games.  I'm predicting a 7-9 finish.  Beating Dallas, however, completely changes the expectation from being an after-thought to being a playoff contender.

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The Washington Redskins are on their way to a six win season, says statistician and math wizard Paul Bessire.

Says me: there are lies, damned lies and statistics. When you say Redskins and six wins in the same sentence, I say damned statistics. You can't call my child ugly even when there are numbers to back it up.

Bessire is one of those quants who project future outcomes from past performance. Rather than running the numbers for Wall Street, Bessire projects sports. And he's simulated the 2010 NFL season 50,000 times to project the most probable outcome for the Skins.

Bessire's twist is that his projections aren't just based on tendencies based on historic data. He maps "every possible interaction between players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (homefield advantage), weather and more." His Predictalator Machine looks for match-ups between teams...and the influence of the most important player. The most important player isn't the team's biggest star in Bessire's model. It's the guy whose performance could rise above or fall below expectations to have a meaningful impact on the team.

Rookie tackle Trent Williams is the Redskins' most important player, says Bessire.

OK, I get it. Expectation based on objective reality and not on emotion. But you take every possible factor and run 50,000 simulations and the Redskins only come out two games better than last year? Aren't we under-weighing Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb here?

I challenged Bessire on that and he was kind enough to answer.

On Mike Shanahan:

"According to the Predictalator, the Redskins may win a couple more games on average than in 2009, but Washington is still not an above .500 team.

"The improvement actually has more to do with the upgrade in the coaching staff than in additional talent on the roster. Mike Shanahan’s history is thoroughly reviewed to gauge his tendencies in just about every situation as well as how much better (or worse) his players play than we would expect otherwise. Shanahan means about 1.2 additional wins to the Redskins relative to Jim Zorn. That is a very significant jump for a coaching staff in one season."

On Donovan McNabb:

"Donovan McNabb, on the other hand, only adds about 0.4 wins to the Redskins over Jason Campbell. McNabb is a 33-year-old quarterback who has hit a plateau and will likely start regressing soon. Jason Campbell is a 28-year-old quarterback who is still improving and was about as efficient as McNabb over the last two seasons, despite having inferior weapons in the passing game. McNabb now inherits those inferior weapons. It’s improvement at the position, but not a big improvement. On the season, McNabb throws for 3317 yards, 23 TDs and 12 INTs. In Oakland, Campbell throws for 3314 yards, 20 TDs and 12 INTs. Kevin Kolb, McNabb’s replacement, throws for 4059 yards, 23 TDs and 17 INTs in Philadelphia."

Redskins Hog Heaven has often criticized the Redskins front office for hyping a guy to come in and "win now" rather than building a roster from the bottom up to be a perennial winner. Now someone uses damned statistics to confirm the thought.

I hate that.

Washington Redskins game by game projection:

Source: http://www.predictionmachine.com/

For PredictionMachine's NFL Division breakdown, look here.

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(Sigh) Can people leave Albert Haynesworth alone?

In today's episode of the Haynesworth Saga, it is reported that Big Al is practicing with the Redskins scout team. That's usually reserved for the scrubs pretending to be the next opponent, the Dallas Cowboys in this case. Elite players don't usually do that, thus all the Twittersphere tweets.

I don't know what's on Mike Shanahan's mind. We're learning how he thinks as we go along. Why does it have to be bad if Haynesworth is cowboy for a day?

If I were Redskins coach, I couldn't think of a better way to prepare Trent Williams to block DeMarcus Ware than to practice against Albert Haynesworth.

Could you?