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Matt Moseley, the NFC East blogger for ESPN.com has a hunch that Michael Vick will struggle against the Washington Redskins this Sunday. Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles fans might have a hard time buying that after watching the Skins stumble against Sam Bradford and the Rams last Sunday.

Moseley says the Redskins will force Vick to scramble. That sounds like a bad idea to me. Vick is at his most dangerous when he's running. Here's how Moseley described in his Final Word post Washington's approach to defending Vick:

"I think [Jim Haslett] will have a defensive back spying on Vick at all times. He has told his players to get their hands up earlier than usual in an attempt to disrupt Vick's rhythm. The Eagles' quarterback looked brilliant against the Lions and Jaguars, but those teams did a poor job containing him. The Redskins will try to lure Vick into throwing the ball across his body. Cornerback DeAngelo Hall played with Vick for several years, so he knows a lot of his tendencies. Look for outside linebacker Brian Orakpo to play a different style in this game. He can't race up the field. Instead, he'll hold the edge and try to force Vick the other direction."

The Redskins faced Vick only once, in December 2006. The Atlanta Falcons snapped a four game losing streak by beating the reeling Redskins 24-14 at FedEx Field. The Redskins won the prior meeting against Atlanta 33-31 in the 2003 season. Doug Johnson started at quarterback for injured Vick. (T.J. Duckett made a particularly strong impression on the Redskins front office in that game. But, I digress.) Matt Ryan was Atlanta's quarterback when the teams met in 2009, a 31-17 win for Atlanta.

Redskins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett was head coach of Falcons rival the New Orleans Saints for six seasons. He is very familiar with Vick. Haslett is 4-6 against Atlanta when Vick was the starter for Atlanta.

Donovan McNabb is familiar with Vick. McNabb tried to recruit Vick to Syracuse out of high school and supported, perhaps lobbied, adding Vick to the Eagles roster. The Eagles traded McNabb to Washington when they figured they were set at quarterback with Kevin Kolb and Vick. More proof that no good deed goes unpunished.

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The Washington Redskins dropped to 22nd place on the Bloguin NFL Power Poll following their 30-16 loss to the St. Louis Rams. The Skins were ranked 15th last week.

Washington's loss to St. Louis, the second in their last three games with the Rams, was unsettling if only because of defensive breakdowns. Defense has been a Redskins strength. The players are still adapting to Jim Haslett's schemes as shown by individual breakdowns. The Rams two touchdown runs were the result of whiffs by safety Kareem Moore who played his first game of the season following an injury.

Losing to the Rams was unsettling to fans, a few of whom started something of a death watch.

In an ironic twist, Jim Haslett figured in both of the most recent losses to the Rams. He was named interim head coach of the then winless Rams the lead-up to St. Louis' visit to FedEx Field in 2008. The Redskins were on a four game win streak in Jim Zorn's first year as head coach. The Rams were on an eight game losing streak extending to the 2007 season.

Redskins Hog Heaven is a member of the Bloguin sports network.

I had an opportunity to pick through the game between the Eagles and Jaguars last week.  Both teams are future opponents of the Redskins this season, though the Jaguars game isn't until Christmas.  Right now, I'll focus just on the Eagles, and what we learned from that game last week.

The Eagles are a team that's struggling with the balance on their offensive line.  Their starting C and RG last year were Jamaal Jackson (best player on the unit), and RG Stacey Andrews.  Jackson is out for the balance of this season, and Andrews was traded to the Bills after losing his starting job.  Replacing them: Nick Cole at RG and third year man Mike McGlynn at Center.  The Eagles benefit from having great depth on the line, but playing two largely inexperienced players there has caused them to have to reverse their protections.

To do this, the Eagles moved their offensive strength from the right to the left.  They set the strength of their protections to the offensive left, which means that the centerpiece of the protection unit is now the more experienced LG Todd Herremans instead of Cole.  This doesn't change the role of either tackle, who have been very durable for them.  RT Winston Justice is the best player on the line, while LT Jason Peters probably hasn't justified a first round pick in a trade, though in today's market, I doubt a 1st rounder could net a player of similar quality.

Essentially, the Eagles are a two tight end offense, because of the unique skills of WR Jason Avant.  Avant plays a wing back type position in a lot of sets (the team will also go empty and use RB LeSean McCoy in similar positioning).  Avant blocks like a fullback, and is actually useful in pass protection where he can full on block a guy and still release into the route once QB Michael Vick is at the top of his drop.  He's actually a better blocker than the team's starting TE, Brent Celek.

I think the Redskins have a major advantage in that their defensive strength takes away the offensive strength of the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Redskins have done a good job preventing the big play this year, specifically, big plays made worse after the catch.  They've also done a good job of getting quick pressure on the quarterback.  The former is how the Eagles have won their last two games, and the latter is how those defenses have stopped drives against them.  If the Eagles are going to pick on the Redskins defense, they'll have to be patient and run plays in the defensive void between the linebackers and the safeties.  Michael Vick has improved in many ways since we last saw him, but he struggled a lot with his accuracy to stationary targets and receivers going over the middle in that game.  If he misses on passes thrown to the void in the Redskins defense, it's hard to see how the Eagles are going to be able to consistently move the ball.

The one matchup issue that scares me is RB LeSean McCoy, who looks to be a completely different player with Michael Vick as his quarterback.  With the need for contain defenders for Vick, McCoy is getting more open field than ever before, and he's really making defenses pay.  He's averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and leads the league in rushing TDs, matching his total from last year in just three games.  The Redskins don't really have a way that they can plan on stopping McCoy (Landry is on double duty this week, I suppose), so perhaps their best bet is to hope that Andy Reid doesn't stick with the run with the hope of a big play passing game in his arsenal.  I like our chances.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defensive line may be the strength of their entire team: they are strong both on the interior and on the outsides.  Rookie first rounder Brandon Graham is already in the defensive rotation, though he's likely their third or fourth best option at that position right now after Trent Cole, Juqua Parker, and Darryl Tapp.

There are big plays to be had against Asante Samuel. Teams on the Eagles schedule to this point haven't gone after him, but he's playing as nosy as I've ever seen him right now, and while the Eagles mix their coverages well, he's not always getting safety help behind him.  On the alternative, the Eagles are fantastic at sniffing out screens, with every one of their front seven members aware of these possibilities on every play.  The Redskins don't run very many screens so this may not be an issue.

I believe SLB Akeem Jordan is the weakness in the front seven, and that CB Ellis Hobbs is the weakness in the secondary for the Eagles.  FS Nate Allen, who the Eagles took with the Donovan McNabb pick, is still a rookie, but has been fantastic in his first month as a professional football player.  I'd like to see the Redskins test him early and often because if he gets to attack, the Philadelphia secondary is going to win it's matchups with the Redskins offense.

For the Redskins, LaRon Landry is going to have to have a big game in the box: he's responsible for both Vick and McCoy in the rushing attack, and when they throw, he'll get help from Rocky McIntosh and London Fletcher, who will also be responsible for Celek.  That numbers game doesn't favor the Redskins (too many weapons), but in terms of talent, I think it does.  Our defenders are better than their comprable offensive players.

Obviously, DeAngelo Hall is going to need to step up on the outside, because Carlos Rogers can't cover both Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson, and those are the guys who will really help you.  Kareem Moore is going to have a better game than he did last week in the deep field, and the Redskins will need him.  Phillip Buchanon is also going to have a major role in this game when Carlos Rogers is covering Avant in the slot.  Buchanon will likely be the target of the passing game for the Eagles.  He's been pretty good this year, a few plays in the Texans game as the exception.

I think, match-up wise, the Redskins are in a good place in this game.  They will need to raise their level of play as a team to stay in this one, but the things that teams can exploit against the Redskins defense are not the strength of the Philadelphia offense.  They can try to exploit our weaknessess by playing away from their strengths, but I think that benefits us in the long run.  Obviously, this is going to be a close game, and in the two minute situations, only one team has Donovan McNabb at quarterback.

This time, it's not the Eagles.

I'm going to begin this analysis by listing a few things that I believe are right with this defense.

They get strong pressure on the quarterback. This is something the Redskins were able to do last year and backs my belief that Albert Haynesworth didn't have a particularly meaningful effect on the increased pass rush.  Brian Orakpo is having an even better season than last year.  Andre Carter and Adam Carriker have both been effective players in the pass rushing schemes.  Lorenzo Alexander is still a beast.  Vonnie Holliday can still get after the passer (not so much, however, those athletic running backs).  The inside linebackers are getting more pressure on quarterbacks than they ever did last year.  We sometimes blitz corners, although we played it pretty straight up against the Rams.

Our run defense is above average. It's not a great unit and our short yardage defense leaves a lot to be desired after it was best-in-the-NFL last year.  But the two longest runs against our defense this year both involved straight whiffs (not even what you'd call "broken") on tackles by FS Kareem Moore.  Obviously that's a personnel issue, and Reed Doughty is an excellent tackler who has issues versus the pass.  LaRon Landry is a major contributor in the run fits.  The corners, for the most part, are providing good run support.  Our linebackers almost never over-pursue their gaps; either you get a body on them or they finish the play.  All of that is how you make up for a defensive line that isn't always up to the task of plugging gaps in the offensive line.

They are strong situationally. I really like our defense from a game theory perspective.  We like to make offense respond to our fronts in downs and distances that wouldn't be considered "normal" by running plays they would normally not consider to convert, because we'll usually trade first down yardage to force them to execute as a team.  The 1-5-5 front is an example of this: teams know they can beat it by running, but you've spent the whole week working on passing to beat our defense, and now you are faced with a playcalling dilemma.  I think these situational calls will benefit us as the year progresses.

We need turnovers to make the defense work, but we're at least getting those turnovers. The inherent problem with the structure of the defense is the emphasis on both patience and pressure.  We're going to force more mistakes than average because our concepts are based around confusion.  None of our three opponents this year have had trouble moving the chains.  Dominant defenses force three and outs when were not forcing turnovers, and the Redskins are in the bottom half of the league in forcing punts.  While the turnovers haven't come cascading down (1, 1, then 2 in 3 games), the Redskins have avoided the dry spells in the last two years, which is an improvement.  So far, the Redskins have benefitted from three missed field goals, which make it seem like there have been more turnovers than their acutally have been.  We can't count on opponents continuing to miss a field goal a game, but the Redskins have certainly helped themselves: Kareem Moore and Carlos Rogers already have INTs, and they've done it against sound competition.

Strength inside the 10 yard line. Teams have been largely unsuccessful at scoring on the Redskins once they drive all the way down the field.  Teams are so reliant on those holes in the zones, that when they aren't there in the red zone, offensive efficiency goes way down.  The ability to get 3 yards running where Ma'ake Kemoeatu should be isn't very useful on 2nd and goal from the 7 yard line.

Of course, there's a number of problems with the defense as it stands.  The pass defense benefitted from NOT having to face a top five passing offense this week (no such luck next week), but still exhibits all the problems it did in the past weeks.  The coverage units have been very much sub-par.  The Redskins prefer cover three, and opponents know that.  The Redskins disguise their pressures well, but their coverages behind it are pretty well defined.  In the first two weeks, the Redskins were almost exclusively a zone coverage team.  This week, we ran a lot of man, both with safety help and without it.

We're simply a better man coverage team than a zone coverage team right now, but when you play the zone coverages, you're trying to build towards a defensive future where you aren't so reliant on individual cover guys that you may or may not have to get the job done for you.  Right now, there's a crazy amount of holes in our zone coverages.  Last year, that was the case and we did absolutely nothing to improve over the year: we admonished our athletes for making mistakes.  This year, we are clearly more patient with the zone coverage, and you know what?  The results have pretty much mirrored last year with no noticible improvement outside of the fact that Landry is no longer in the middle of the deep field handing out touchdowns.

Our zone coverages are very, very soft.  Soft zone coverage can be beneficial in that it requires the offensive unit to really execute under duress, but our coverages fall more into the "people are running over the middle wide open" category.  That's not intentionally soft, it's just not good enough.  Yet.  More man coverage could be a short term solution to the problem, but our coaching staff needs to decide whether or not our adjustments should be geared to the short term or long term.  If they choose short term, then I will be more critical of the coverage units (lack of) progression than I would otherwise be if they stick with zone and try to improve.

Third/Fourth Down Defense

The Rams faced the following third downs during this game: 3rd & 7, 3rd & 2, 3rd & 6, 3rd & 10, 3rd & 6, 3rd & 2, and 3rd & 3 in the first half, then 3rd & 10, 3rd & 7, 3rd & 4, 3rd & 1, 3rd & 6, 3rd & 3, 3rd & 10, and 3rd & 20 in the second half.  That's an average of 5.4 yards to convert in the first half and 7.6 yards to convert in the second half.  In the first half, the Rams largely were unable to sustain their drives.  In the second half, they had no issue sustaining them, converting 50% of the time on third down and going 1 for 1 on fourth down in both halves.

In the first half, the Redskins struggled some in first and second down play, but performed adequately on third downs.  The Rams won a couple of throws against our corners on third, but for nothing after the catch.  By the second half, the Rams started to actually beat our schemes to extend drives on long distances.  If you were to be charitable and throw out the 3rd and 20 pass that Bradford converted against Hall on the grounds of the game already being over, the numbers look pretty similar, but 1) that was essentially the game ender, according to win probability, and 2) there were no outliers in the first half to also toss out.

The common theme in the second half conversions were uncontested throws short of the sticks where the Redskins uncharacteristically failed to close and tackle to prevent the first down.  On the event that they would have made those tackles, the Rams proved they could get a yard on fourth down anyway, so the Redskins might not have been able to get off the field even if they had made those tackles.  Such a reason is why short yardage defense could be our major issue: teams are realizing that fourth and short is a bad situation to bring out the kicking unit, and so defenses now have to play as four down defenses in more than just end of game siuations.  The Redskins have had a problem as a four down defense: analysts generally don't split their third and fourth down stats, but the Redskins have been simply horrendous as a fourth down defense this year, with no stops in five attempts over four games.

Is there a problem with being blitz happy?

Generally speaking, yes.  In 2008, Greg Blache was blitz-happy to the point of a defensive deficiency.  Specifically speaking, the Jim Haslett Redskins are being more judicious with their pressure schemes this year than they are given credit for, and they've been highly effective schemes (at least, independant of the coverage being played behind them).  When they blitz, they are getting to the quarterback quicker than when they rush four.  That's something that wasn't true in the past.  When they rush four, they are still making a lot of plays, but quarterbacks have a little more time to find the holes in the zones.  For the first time since 2007, the Redskins clearly have blitzing personel at linebacker and in the secondary, so you might as well use it.

This was not a big blitzing game for the Redskins.  In fact, I'm not sure that Carlos Rogers, Kareem Moore, Phillip Buchanon, or DeAngelo Hall ever came on a blitz, which is a bit disappointing.  Landry was still pretty effective, and Carriker really benefited from the one on ones he got out of the pressure schemes.  The Redskins have had great success with simple stunts out of four man rush schemes, as we're now the teams who are toying with offensive lines rather than getting toyed with.  Perhaps amazingly, this hasn't translated to an overall better defense than last year, even though there as many guys in coverage, and more free runners on the quarterback.  For all the differences in philosophy, as well as significant personnel changes, the strengths and weaknesses of this defensive unit have remained consistent with those in 2009.  We've just traded some per-play efficiency for opportunistic defenisive ability, at least based on evidence from September.

How the Rams were able to adjust in the second half

What seems to have stuck out in the mind of many fans is that the Rams found more success AFTER Steven Jackson left the game with an injury.  Jackson wasn't particularly effective in this game: his 42 yard TD run was no different in terms of value than Kenneth Darby's 12 yard TD run.  Both made Kareem Moore miss in the open field and took it in for points.  Darby had 13 other carries for 37 yards (3.1 YPC).  Jackson had 9 other carries for 16 yards (1.7 YPC).  So you can see how losing Jackson might not have meant so much for the Rams, at least with regard to beating the Redskins.  The teams had played to a virtual draw until the point at which Jackson was injured.

I charted the Redskins with 7 hits or pressures on Bradford in the first half, but just one in the second half.  Was the difference play selection?  The Rams threw 23 of 36 plays in the first half, almost two thirds.  In the third quarter (to eliminate a run heavy fourth quarter designed to preserve a lead), the Rams threw 14 of 23 plays.  That's not a significant difference.  I think the Rams made a bunch of small adjustments that nullified the Redskins' pressure schemes in the second half.  Sam Bradford made quicker reads, if not more accurate throws (his accuracy was spotty most of the day).  He beat a pair of blitzes on the first drive of the second half where the Redskins got pressure to come free, but they also left a hot receiver with a clean release off the line.  The Rams were running smoke and other WR screen varients all day, but the plays were executed much better in the second half.

I think the biggest difference is that in the first half, the Rams were running just to run.  In the second half, they were running very effectively, really moving our defensive linemen off the ball (Haynesworth, Holliday, Kemoeatu, Golston in particular -- Daniels can anchor still, but all NFL RBs can make him miss if he doesn't have help).  On the first two drives of the second half, the Rams only had one successful run, the Darby TD.  6 carries into the second half, I think we wore down and got winded.

The other thing: Carlos Rogers was not targeted in the second half.  He had a good game.  They were able to convert a pair of first downs against him, but he made two nice pass breakups (one killed a drive), and a third that was called pass interference.  I didn't like the call.  He clearly went through the receivers' back, but the receiver (Gibson) ran a piss-poor route and Rogers was just breaking on the ball with no intent to go through the receiver to get there.  That's supposed to be a no-call.

Finishing the game

Our defensive style leaves us out for a lot of plays, and even with a rotation, our defensive lineman and every down pass rushers are wearing down at the end of games.  This may be an unavoidable evil of our scheme.  Our run defense was great (save two plays) through three quarters.  But to come back in games where the offense struggles, it needs to be great through four quarters.  When we needed it to come through for us in the final 15 minutes, they didn't get it done.

In that sense, it really is a lot like last year again.  Older players: they're going to wear down after about 50 team defensive plays.  It happened against Houston and it happened against St. Louis.  Chasing Michael Vick is only going to make it that much harder.

Defensive plus/minus

1. Adam Carriker +2 (+4/-2)
2. Carlos Rogers +2 (+2/-0)
3. LaRon Landry +1 (+2/-1)
4. Phillip Buchanon 0 (+1/-1)
5. London Fletcher 0 (+1/-1)
6. Kedric Golston 0 (+1/-1)
7. Lorenzo Alexander 0 (+1/-1)
8. Rocky McIntosh 0 (+1/-1)
9. Phillip Daniels 0 (+1/-1)
10. Albert Haynesworth -1 (+1/-2)
11. Ma'ake Kemoeatu -1 (+2/-3)
12. Vonnie Holliday -1 (+0/-1)
13. Andre Carter -1 (+1/-2)
14. DeAngelo Hall -1 (+0/-1)
15. Kareem Moore -2 (+1/-3)

Overall, more bad plays than good, and a lot of work to get ready for Philly's impressive offense.

There were numerous problems with the offense in this game, possibly none bigger than the fact that the left side of the offensive line from the first two games (Trent Williams and Derrick Dockery) did not appear in this game.  Kory Lichtensteiger is clearly the new starting LG and he was pretty clearly the Redskins best offensive lineman in this game.  I like Lichtensteiger because his field presence is far superior to players like Casey Rabach and Jamaal Brown.  He adjusts very well to things the opponent do, and he's really the best thing we've had on the interior since Pete Kendall in 2008.

This would normally be where I recommend that he start at left guard full time...but I actually think we need Lichtenstieger worse at center.  This group of coaches aren't big fans of Derrick Dockery (who you may remember was a teammate of Kyle Shanahan at Texas), and Dockery did not appear in this game.  Dockery isn't mobile, at least not in the way that Artis Hicks and Lichtensteiger are.  This team likes to pull it's guards a lot in the running game and Derrick Dockery is a big problem as that kind of lineman.  He's going to have to be in between the left tackle and the center when he makes his block and that limits what Kyle Shanahan wants to do with his play calling.  It really makes you wonder how Mike Williams would have played RG in this system.

Still, even with the way that Kyle Shanahan is struggling to call an offense that doesn't completely out talent all opponents, Dockery is a necessary evil.  You just can't play with Casey Rabach on the interior.  Rabach didn't have a particularly bad game, but you can credit Lichtenstieger for helping him correctly sort most protections and get double teams on generic Rams nose tackles such as Fred Robbins.  The next move is Lichtensteiger as the long term replacement at center, and a new left guard next year, possibly Erik Cook?

Kory Lichtensteiger wasn't perfect in this game -- he had a false start in the fourth quarter, for example -- but his mistakes are benign compared to the rest of the line.  I thought Stephon Heyer played admirably in place of Trent Williams.  He's really worked to turn himself into a great run blocker and had a lot of key blocks for long runs by Torain and Portis.  Two years ago, those holes aren't there because Heyer was terrible in space.  He's still just a marginal pass protector, but when you consider that the Redskins gave him little help (outside of Lichtensteiger's general awareness), his performance was pretty acceptable.  The Rams have a nice prospect in George Selvie who is just a rookie, and he fought Heyer to a virtual draw on Sunday.  Rams backups at that position did nothing.

On the other side, Chris Long would like to announce himself as the next pro-bowl level defensive end in the NFC.  He did so against Jamaal Brown, who is playing like anything but a pro bowler.  Brown had some help in a lot of max protect schemes, and still got schooled by a third year pro.  The Redskins had just 46 snaps leading up to McNabb's game icing interception, and about a 63% pass rate, or 29 dropbacks.  Chris Long won on about a quarter of those dropbacks, and was by far the most dominant defensive force in this game.  Jamaal Brown has been anything but impressive as a Redskin, and when Trent Williams is healthy, look for Stephon Heyer to get more and more of his reps.  It's probable -- with a lot of football left to play -- that Brown is a one season player here, and a trade that helped for depth, but may not have improved the starting lineup.

Then there was this week's "lesson not learned from the Jim Zorn era."  Shanahan apparently sat Clinton Portis down for most of the second half for not finishing a run in the first half.  With Portis on the bench, the Rams' pass pressure schemes got more and more complicated, and the Redskins decided that they'd rather not run into these pressure schemes, rather, would let Ryan Torain learn to pass protect on the fly.  It was hard to notice any progress.  Torain, like Keiland Williams, is a willing pass protector, but has absolutely no aptitude to hit a defender in the backfield.  He even struggles to make contact.  The thing that de-railed Zorn's offense as much as anything was his refusal to work Portis into the third down pass protection schemes, meeting the oft-injured RB halfway.  If we're in for another season of this garbage, we could have saved a lot of money just letting Zorn coach out his contract and replacing his coordinators.

Donovan McNabb is clearly adept at feeling the rush, but the cumulative effect of pressure finally got to McNabb in this game.  The Rams started to get really creative with pressures when they felt they were safe from the Redskins running game, and they were able to create both mismatches on the Redskins line (i.e. Torain) as well as free rushers.  By late in the third quarter, Steve Spagnuolo's Rams defense had sufficiently confounded McNabb, making him an ineffective passer for the rest of the game.  At the very least, McNabb didn't have his play timing thrown off in the same way Jason Campbell appeared to last year -- the ball still came out when it was designed to -- but in the second half, McNabb clearly wasn't getting into his progressions in any way that would have threatened the Rams defense down the field.  The first play of the second half, a 55 yarder to Moss against cover-two, was the last long play of the game for the Redskins offense.

From that point, the Redskins managed 31 yards of offense (total yardage minus penalty yardage), final drive non-withstanding.  The Rams defense doesn't appear to be a great unit, but it appears to be an adequate NFL defense under Spagnuolo, and if we increased the sample, they would have won as many plays as they lost against the Redskins offense.  The bottom line is that there simply wasn't a sustainable talent or scheme advantage that the Redskins could use to exploit the Rams.

At the conclusion of this tape, I'm left thinking that the Rams and Redskins will go on to achieve similar success over the rest of the season.  That could be good -- both teams could win their respective divisions -- or it could be just two last place teams.  There's no way to say for now, but one thing that's clear is that the Redskins didn't leave a bunch of plays on the field due to individual breakdowns.  This was a dogfight the whole way, meaning, either the Rams are better than everyone thinks, or the Redskins are really just as bad as they looked.

Do the Redskins have a solution to the receiver issue?

Ummmm...probably not in-house.  Here's the deal, the Redskins use a lot of spread offense concepts, but they run these concepts from pure pro-style sets.  Spread offenses excel by using the entire field and making the defense cover every inch of ground.  These are the same tenets that the Redskins offense is built on, but the Redskins absolutely love to use a fullback in their offense.  We've been a singleback offense for the past six to eight years that made an exception for the unique skills of Mike Sellers.  Now we're a two-back offense that plays Sellers on most plays because he plays the position of "fullback" which is the safety blanket of the offense.  What that means is that the Redskins play almost no 3 WR sets in normal down and distances.

In other words, there is no reason to believe that this offense requires a complement to Santana Moss.  About half of the total offense is thrown to either Moss or Cooley.  Then based simply on formation preference, and in whatever balance Kyle Shanahan has that week, Mike Sellers and Fred Davis combine for another 5 to 7 targets between them (I imagine the optimal balance is all Davis and no Sellers).  So what's left for Galloway/Roydell/Armstrong/Devin?  After accounting for the inherent percentage of the offense that becomes forced checkdowns, we're averaging about five targets a game for ALL secondary targets, split pretty equally between Galloway, Williams, and Armstrong.

So most of the problem is pure opportunities.  We are in need of just one guy who can take ALL of the reps and be consistently productive in a five to seven target per game role.  It could theoretically be any of the three, but Galloway has a big problem with his route running.

For example, lets's examine the Santana Moss touchdown.  The Redskins ran a naked bootleg off a max protect, and ran it into a double corner fire.  The run action was bought by all three linebackers, who were taken out of coverage by a beautiful play fake.  McNabb's fake even saved his own skin, as frontside corner Ron Bartell blitzed and took an angle to the running back, even after McNabb kept the ball and got outside contain.  The playside receiver was Galloway, and the routes called were double deep comeback to the outsides.  Both receivers were man to man with safeties.  The Redskins had won, this is simple pitch and catch.

Only, Galloway simply didn't beat Atogwe: the Rams safety won man to man.  Luckily for the Redskins, McNabb reads the whole field, and didn't hesitate to throw the ball to his favorite target.  I've been critical of Moss' route running, but it didn't take him much effort to beat James Butler and catch a TD that perhaps only McNabb has the arm to throw.  Joey Galloway should have had his first TD as a Redskin, and just did not get it done.  McNabb and Moss found a way to hook up on that play.  That speaks volumes.

Galloway still has his deep speed that the Redskins have utilized on posts because that's where he can contribute to the team, but he's also the least able of all Redskins receivers as a blocker, so he's got to get fewer snaps.  I've been impressed by Roydell Williams and would give him a crack at the number two receiver job.  Anthony Armstrong has done well in limited time since his drop against Dallas.  If he had made the play in that game, he would have established himself as our number two receiver.  Right now, he's just a guy.

So, what of Devin Thomas?  Can he not play with the production we are getting out of the wide receivers?  Well, if you grade him on a pure production basis, what we are getting out of Roydell Williams and Anthony Armstrong this season is exactly what Thomas gave us last season.  So Thomas clearly can produce at the levels we expect of this offense.  The biggest issue right now is that Galloway needs to get fewer steps, because there's untapped talent in all three other guys.  I don't know who has the highest upside.  I suspect its Armstrong, but that's just a guess based on route running and a complete skill set.  If you grade strictly on what is and not what can be, Thomas, Williams, and Armstrong are all about equally proven.  They could all be interchangable in this offense, but again, the issue is that the available snaps in the offense are limited becuase the Redskins aren't a three receiver base offense as most in the NFL are.

Receiver Stats, this game

 

• Santana Moss, targeted 8 times. 124 receiving yards and a TD on 6 catches with a fumble.  15.5 yards per target.  4 successful catches with two big plays for a 50% success rate.
• Chris Cooley, targeted 7 times, 5 for catches, but 3 unsuccesful catches for just a 29% success rate.  53 receiving yards for 7.6 yards per target.  One fumble? Kind of?
• Roydell Williams, targeted 3 times. One catch for ten yards.  Just a 33% success rate.
• Fred Davis, targeted 3 times, 3 successful plays for 50 yards of complete offense, which includes a 39 yard pass interference penalty. 16.7 yards per target.
• Mike Sellers, targeted twice, both passes complete.  One successful, the other lost a yard.  10 receiving yards, which breaks down to 5 yards per target.
• Joey Galloway, two incomplete targets with the biggest one on a deep post.  It fell incomplete, though there was a good chance to get pass interference called with a more competent officiating crew.
• Clinton Portis caught the one pass thrown to him, converting a 2nd and 13 for 14 yards and a first down.
• Keiland Williams was targeted three times for 14 yards (4.67 YPT), and was predominantly useful as a receiver in the hurry up.  He was targeted once on a critical third and short and ran a fade against MLB Laurinaitis, which was defensed by Laurinaitis. The other two passes were caught, but ultimately meaningless.

 

DaVaris Daniels, son of Washington Redskins DE Phillip Daniels, verbally committed to play college football for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, according to a story on Scouts.com.

Proud poppa Phillip tweeted about DaVaris late this evening. "Article on DaVaris and his commitment. RT @ScoutNotreDameDaniels: "No Other Place" http://bit.ly/aMP0dD."

Phillip Daniels is the most effective twit on the Redskins. He's open, inviting and has tweeted DaVaris' accomplishments on Twitter for over a year. Daniels has 4,819 Twitter followers.

Young Daniels is a Rivals.com Four-Star wide receiver at Vernon Hills (Illinois) High School. He narrowed his choices to the Fighting Irish and the Miami Hurricanes before deciding on The Irish Tuesday night. New Notre Dame football coach Brian Kelly swayed his decision to to go to South Bend.

Phillip Daniels will always be a favorite Redskin, but as a Spartan alum, this will be my only congratulatory note for young DaVaris until he leaves that nest of heathen savages.

Just doing some quick math here: redshirt freshman in 2011; play two years; declare for the 2014 NFL Draft. Hope the Redskins scouting department isn't asleep on this.

Correction: Fighting Irish and Redskins fan Rob Kemp provides this clarification--Notre Dame does not redshirt freshmen. If, as a freshman, a player does not enter any game his first year, then he is eligible to play an extra year after his 4th year at the school.  Its all a coach's decision at that point.

Mr. Kemp and I exchanged a funny series of emails about Dan Snyder, drinking Kool-Ade and irrational thoughts because I told him the Skins would beat the Eagles this weekend. Hey, it you don't have hope, you don't have life.

[picapp]

 

Vick Week officially began at 10:15 AM, ET, Monday, September 27, when Wall Street Journal blog, The Daily Fix, published Prepare For a Week of Vick vs. McNabb. Vick vs. McNabb in The Journal? Really?

FOX promoted the upcoming Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles game unremittingly during the St. Louis beat-down. We expected that. When The Wall Street Journal blogs about Vick vs. McNabb, we've crossed the threshold of cultural significance. Yes siree.

It helps salve the wounds of the loss to the St. Louis Rams for fans already pronouncing the Dannyhan era a bust. You know who you are and shame on you. It's way too early to draw any conclusion about the season or anyone on the team.

We wonder, however, how can a defense that couldn't pressure rookie Sam Bradford suppress the elusive Michael Vick?

When the Redskins Hog Heaven writers predicted the season early this month, I called the Eagles game a win. Football is played emotionally. The emotion of Donovan McNabb's return to Philly to face the man who replaced him, Kevin Kolb, would sweep the Redskins to an upset win. To my chagrin, and FOX's delight, Kevin Kolb became Michael Vick. Oops! The Eagles are a lot harder to beat now.

Scouting Michael Vick

That's drama for the fan and hype for FOX. Coaches and players are expected to get it done. They get scouting reports to figure it out. The closest we can come is a pair of reports on Football Outsiders.

Mike Tanier charted Vick's every pass in Sunday's game against the Jaguars (Walkthrough: Vick's Every Move). Vick threw three touchdown passes, and ran for another. His QB rating for the season is 110.2. That's compared to his career rating of 77.5.

That's lights out football! Yet, here's how Tanier closed his article:

"Listening to the commentary, there was a lot of talk about a new Vick, one who doesn't make bad decisions or throw off-target passes. I didn't see that Vick, and you won't find that Vick in the summary I just provided. This was a strong game overall, but there were a lot of danger signs -- sacks, bad throws, bad plays by the defense that the Eagles got away with -- that tell me that the old Vick is still hanging around, waiting to show himself against a good NFL defense." (Emphasis mine)

That begs the question, are the Redskins a good defense at this point?

RHH's Greg Trippiedi's preseason call on the defense:

"We're looking at a defense that will probably rate in the same range that it did in the last two years.  We'll play smarter than last year's defense, and we'll be more opportunistic than last year's defense, but there isn't quite the same level of talent as on last year's defense. Cornelius Griffin was oft injured, but this team will miss his presence on the field.  Albert Haynesworth is unlikely to play at the level he did last year, and that's even assuming he plays as much as he did last year."

Greg pointed to the secondary as the strength of the defense, harkening back to the Joe Gibbs coverage sacks idea. There are unique demands for defending Vick.

There are quarterbacks and there's Michael Vick

With classic quarterbacks, the defense tries to collapse the interior of the offensive line to prevent him from stepping into the pocket. With Vick, defenses attack from the ends, not to get sacks so much as to contain. You don't force the bad QB Vick to run. That's how he beats you. You force him to throw because that's his perceived weakness.

On paper, that plays into Trippiedi's profile of Washington's defense. Games aren't played on paper. They are played on television.

Is the new Vick real, or hype?

The good Vick is perceived to have better quarterback skills as shown by his high QB rating. Football Outsiders isn't buying that yet.

"Michael Vick has now played ten quarters of football, and eight of them have come against the pass defenses that ranked 31st (Jacksonville) and 32nd (Detroit) in DVOA a year ago. Jacksonville remained 31st through the first two weeks of the season, and while Detroit has looked improved, there's been more than a few favorable turnover bounces that have gone their way through three weeks."

FO doesn't track opponent strength in individual quarterback DYAR until the fourth game (this weekend). By their measure, Vick's performance has been slightly above average. Against better defenses, they speculate that his performance will fall to average to slightly below. (Week 3 Quick Reads, Sep 28, 2010)

Have no fear of Michael Vick. This just in, losing to the Rams means we can sneak up on the Eagles, if the defense is good enough.