Redskins vs Lions Offensive Review: Trying to Figure Out How Much Passing is Too Much

Written by Greg Trippiedi on .

At the end of 141 plays of charting (boy, was this a long one), I can safely conclude that one thing the Redskins did wrong against the Lions was that they did not run the football enough.  Speaking just of designed runs, Ryan Torain had all 8 in the first half, and Keiland Williams had all 6 in the second half.  The leading rusher in the game was Donovan McNabb, who had no designed runs called for him.  A couple of designed runs turned into sight-adjust passes in the slot to Moss, maybe two or three in total.

Normally, when you run the ball this often, it's because the game situations prevented you from running it.  But that's not the case here, as the Redskins ran only 6 plays between their last lead in the game and trailing by two scores and being more or less out of it.  The first 55 playcalls of the game came with a lead or with a deficit of one score or less (and after trailing 7-0 for a drive, that largest deficit was 14-13 in the 3rd quarter).  Fewer than 20 called runs in a game this close is poor offensive balance, especially when the Redskins lack any layers in their passing attack.

It seems to me that making the quarterback hand-off would be a nice intermediary step between running your entire gameplan through him and putting him on the bench for ineffectiveness, but I suppose I am where I am for a reason.

There were strategic reasons not to run the football here, namely, that the Lions interior defensive line wasn't handled all day by the Redskins interior offensive line.  However, one week ago against Chicago, we were able to get on their stars with the same personnel we had this week and threw the kitchen sink at them in terms of different ways to attack a defense on the ground.  This game, the Redskins ran once in their first 8 plays.  Way to set the tone, guys.

All day long, the defensive edge players of the Lions were either on strict upfield attack of the quarterback from a wide position, or they were tighter in a more conventional front to run stunts at the Redskins offensive line.  They were not going to let us have our bootleg passing game.  Kyle Shanahan was unable to adjust to that simple gameplan from Jim Schwartz and Gunther Cunningham, but the Redskins also had a problem with McNabb in the pocket.  McNabb doesn't always stay in the pocket when the protection is there.  When Jason Campbell was at his worst last season (around October), he had the same issue: the Redskins OL blew some protections, but they could give strong protection and he'd still move around as if there was pressure on him.  McNabb has that problem right now, but instead of running around inside the pocket, McNabb likes to flush to the outside and try to make a play.  He's putting incredible pressure on himself to make difficult throws when the receivers don't quite have the scramble drill down yet.  These desperation plays are greatly contributing to Chris Cooley's struggles as a receiver this year.

So while the Lions were able to consistently and decisively win the battle at the line of scrimmage, the Redskins were able to give a quarterback room to operate most of the day.  I don't think any of the sacks McNabb took in this game were on him with the exception of the two times he tripped and fell down.  The Redskins missed assignments all day long, in every quarter.

The Lions had a mismatch with Ndamukong Suh no matter where he lined up, because the scheme Jim Schwartz allows is all about Suh getting opportunities.  It's an aggressive 4-man gap attack-first scheme, but here's how the Lions free up Suh to do his worst: they let him rush in the B gap on both sides where he was either the responsibility of Artis Hicks or Trent Williams based on how the Redskins matched their protections.  The Lions, intelligently, make sure that the rest of their defensive linemen don't rush in the gaps next to Suh, so Suh is free, if he needs to, to leave his gap and beat his assignment to the other side.  That makes Suh unblockable without a double team.

The problem for the Redskins were that they couldn't control Kyle Vanden Bosch, and because they couldn't handle Vanden Bosch, anytime they doubled Suh, it resulted in disaster.  If Trent Williams neutralizes Vanden Bosch the next time they play, the Redskins only will allow the handful of pressures to Suh, which won't be enough to win the game.

As it turned out, it shouldn't have been enough.  The Redskins should have started protecting with six and seven guys earlier than they did, because if they had put the film of the Giants game vs. the Lions, they would have noticed that the Giants made that same adjustment by the third drive of the game.  They didn't need to max protect it, but they needed to stop sending the backs into stupid pass patterns where they had to get the ball because the defense had a free run on McNabb.  When the backs stayed in, McNabb had plenty of time to make plays, plays he didn't always make.  When the backs tried to get into routes, they usually missed some obvious help situations where they could have saved their quarterback.  Aside from one or two protections that were stupidly called, those was the problem with protection in this game: 1) Trent Williams needed to play better, and 2) the backs needed to commit to helping their quarterback out instead of hanging him out.  That's it.

Donovan McNabb's timing is terrible.  He's late on any play that requires more than a three step drop.  He lets the defensive pass rush dictate the timing of the play.  He's underthrowing most of his deep passes.  I'm mildly concerned about declining arm strength, as he really needs to get his body into a throw to get it out in front of his receiver.  Sometimes, he'll throw to a receiver who has already completed his route.  It's not like he's getting to these reads late, these aren't even routes that require anticipation.  These are usually just longer routes where the ball needs to come out in a reasonable amount of time.  McNabb might not be able to control the rate at which he gets sacked, but if getting sacked or pressured is the issue, he could always speed up his execution so that things work on time.  I do think McNabb's timing is contributing to the protection woes, but with that said, beat is still beat.  McNabb is late AND the offensive protection is getting beat.  No QB should be getting sacked 7% of the time in this offense, alas, McNabb is.  One or the other could play better, and sacks would cease to be an issue.

By the time Grossman was playing, the Redskins had gotten away from what had been working in the passing game in the middle two quarters.  Neither of the two Grossman drives featured a tight end chipping or a back staying in against the four man rush of the Lions.  So naturally, Grossman didn't do any better than McNabb under the same conditions, what did you expect?

I think Rex Grossman could have made a bunch of the plays McNabb missed in this game and the last game, but when you play Grossman, you have game-changing errors because he's not particularly accurate and fumbles a lot and forces throws that have no business of being made in the first place.  In other words, every mistake McNabb made in the first and fourth quarters is a staple of how Rex Grossman has played in his career.

Individual Offensive Linemen

A few players on the OL played well.  We got good production in this game out of the LG position with Lichtensteiger and out of the RT position with both Stephon Heyer and Jammal Brown.  I already mentioned that Trent Williams did not play well, and while you'll account for the fact that Artis Hicks was in a huge mismatch most of this game and needed help, he still likely underachieved even those low expectations.  Rabach was terrible.  Hogs are dirty.  Soup is wet.  The backs were more of a hinderence on the offense than a help, and it wouldn't have taken too much more patience for Torain and Williams to be assets in pass protection.  Fred Davis handled Vanden Bosch a few times on upfield rushes and arguably was a stronger match-up than Trent Williams was.

Some of our protection schemes were just too flawed to give the passer a chance, namely a couple of play action schemes where the back off PA was responsible for a gap on the backside in protection.  Sure, Portis can get across the backfield and stick a linebacker at full speed, but I'm not sure how many other backs in this league can.  The Lions weren't buying our play action plays, and were instead daring us to run the ball.  All those plays actually lost was timing with the receivers.

Mike Sellers really deserves some credit for improvement in the way he's seeing his assignments in this running game.  He still plays too much for a team that throws as much as this team does, but when we run, Sellers is now opening up lanes instead of falling down in the backfield.  From where I'm from, this is an improvement.  Chris Cooley, Santana Moss, and Anthony Armstrong continue to be great pieces in the rushing attack, with Moss now taking on a role in picking up safeties and edge setters inside the box.  I can't overstate how useful that is.  It would be even more useful if the team ever ran the ball.

Skill Players not named McNabb or Grossman

The team is clearly averse to running the ball with Keiland Williams, but I think he's a better runner than Torain.  Torain ran poorly in this game, not using his blocks and only offering a couple of the hard runs that he has become known for.  Torain, I'm convinced, is not more than a no. 2 RB off the bench, and right now, I think he's stretched into a role he can't completely handle.  Kudos to him for stepping in for an injury to Portis and carrying the load at a level that Willie Parker or Larry Johnson could not, but I happen to think Williams might be better.

McNabb got the ball in Anthony Armstrong's hands deep twice on two Detroit coverage breakdowns.  Armstrong's emergence means that Moss rarely goes deep anymore.  Moss is a big target in the three step drop passing attack, as he has a good rapport with McNabb, and Moss can quickly help erase long yardage situations in early downs.  That's something he's good at.

Some of the Redskins best offensive plays came after holding penalties.  The Redskins did a good job of getting that penalty yardage right back without wasting anything but a first down play.  Of course, that put the team in second and long, but the simple solution to that is to not get any penalties, or at least as many as the Redskins did in this game.  Way too much shooting oneself in the foot.

Generally Speaking

This offense does a number of things well, but fewer things well than it once did.  The Redskins can still create opportunities down the field.  They aren't converting those opportunities as they were earlier in the season because McNabb isn't playing as well as he was earlier in the season.  This is evident by the increase in turnover rate in the last three games.  McNabb now has 8 INTs (lets drop that to 7 to omit the GB hail mary at the end of regulation), and 4 fumbles, which he has been fortunate to have recovered.  That's 11 turnovers in just over 300 touches.

One of the places McNabb was getting that value from in the past was that he himself wasn't turning the ball over.  His first Redskins INT came in the Rams game.  He had two "game" interceptions in the first five games.  In the last three games, he has five, plus one more dropped interception (three) than he had in the first five games (two).  All of his fumbles have occured in the last three games.  That's an alarming turnover rate, from best in the league to among the worst quicker than you can say "Mark Sanchez."

Now McNabb's only value to an NFL offense the way he is playing was evident in this game: he found Anthony Armstrong deep twice, and he had a scramble for 36 yards, and he's still a danger to defenses from outside the pocket.  That's three or four big plays a game versus about the same number of crushing mistakes, and in between, the passing game is a complete waste of our time.

It's not time to replace Donovan McNabb as quarterback of the Redskins, but it's time to lean on the 4.5 yard per rush average of our running backs over the Cutler-esque 6.3 AYPA of our QB.  Ultimately, the Redskins are just a little below average as a passing football team, but the trend is in the wrong direction.  To take the optimist's perspective on the matter: the bye came at a very good time.  To take the pessimist's perspective: this offense can't and won't compete unless #26 is back there making sure the passing operation runs well.

JaMarcus Russell, Randy Moss and Redskins Rumors

Written by Anthony Brown on .

The Washington Redskins don't need any more controversy so they divulged that they worked out free agent quarterback JaMarcus Russell today. The story on Redskins.com did not mention that Washington also looked at free agent quarterback J.P. Losman, ex of Buffalo, and a dozen or so other hopefuls.

The Redskins take a one week hiatus for the bye and that's when teams typically look over free agents who might be able to backfill for depth should an active roster member be lost to injury.

Russell drew interest because of his name value and because of the controversy around Donovan McNabb.

I hope the Redskins looked at running backs, wide receivers and linemen in today's group.

As for Losman and Russell, if the Shanahans hoped to use them as a veiled threat to McNabb, next time go for someone who is, you know, threatening, like Jeff Garcia, or Jake Plummer.

Problems would ensue if Washington signs Russell.

Randy Moss

It's official. The Minnesota Vikings waived wide receiver Randy Moss today. That news hit the Bloggosphere yesterday, but Moss' name appeared on the NFL waiver wire today (Tuesday). Naturally, the Redskins appear on the short list of teams that would vie for his services.

Nothing official about that from Redskins Park. Coach Shanahan mumbled something about looking at any player who could help the team win.

So we rely on rumor-mongers like Adam Schefter to speculate where Randy-man may go. Here's his list presented in reverse order by won-loss record:

Cowboys, 1-5
Redskins, 4-4
Rams, 4-4
Raiders, 4-4
Bears, 4-3
Dolphins, 4-3
Jets, 5-2
Pats, 6-1

The team with the worst record has priority to pick up Moss. The Cowboys get first shot, but I'm not sure why they are on this list. They are plenty talented at wide receiver. Their problem is that they have not focused on winning. I'm not pointing to lack of effort. Lack of concentration is their issue.

The Redskins, Rams and Raiders each need a big time wide-out. Which team would be willing to sign Moss to a contract extension right now? Moss has said a lot of eccentric things lately, much of which seems to be how much he misses the Patriots.

Something is going on in the mind of Moss. Whatever it is, it's weighing him down. He has 22 receptions and five touchdowns for the year; 13 receptions and two touchdowns in four games with the Vikings. That's low for Moss who caught 83 passes for 13 touchdowns in 2009.

Where ever Moss lands, that performance won't necessarily follow. There's no question about talent. The man is just in a bad place right now. Moss is as unlikely to help the Redskins this year for the same reasons Vincent Jackson would not have. Reason No. 1 is that I don't believe he will land here.

I have a hunch, Moss will return to the Patriots, who would get their player back along with the third round draft pick the Vikings traded to get him. It's just how Bill Belichick rolls.

Randy Moss joining the Redskins smacks of a Snyderrato move. If that happens, we can start wondering if Dan Snyder really is hands-off running the team.

 

 

T.O. and Ocho vs. McNabb and Shanahan, Tonight on Versus

Written by Anthony Brown on .

(Sigh) You know your team has reached a new level when it's the topic of discussion on the T.Ocho Show on Versus.

Yes, boys and girls Terrell Owens and "Esteban" OchoCinco weigh in on Washington Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan's decision to pull quarterback Donovan McNabb in the last two minutes of the Detroit Lions game with the 'Skins down by six points.

OchoCinco says "If anybody thinks that Rex Grossman gives you a better chance to win than Donovan McNabb you need to slap yourself!"

Chil', please. This must-see TV airs Tuesday nights at 10:30 p.m. ET, features T.O. and OchoCinco going head-to-head to discuss the hottest news in and around the NFL, sports in general and pop culture.  Kevin Frazier, who is currently the weekend host and correspondent for Entertainment Tonight, will serve as the show's host to referee the on-screen mayhem between the two stars.  Frazier has more than 15-years of on-air experience across various networks, including ESPN, where he hosted SportsCenter as well as FOX Sports Net, where he hosted FOX Sports News and served as a sideline reporter for NFL games.

Tonight's show will air at 11:00 P.M. ET because of the NHL game.

Set your DVR and check cable listings.

In other media news, Redskins safety LaRon Landry will be named to the NFL Mid-Season All-Pro Team in the November 8, 2010 issue of Sports Illustrated Magazine. Landry is the only Redskin to be honored. Former Redskin wide receiver Brandon Lloyd will be named on the offensive team. Detroit Lions defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh will be named defensive rookie of the mid-season.

SI predicts the New York Giants will win the NFC East and that the Philadelphia Eagles will win a wild-card playoff spot.

USA Today - Terrell Owens defends Mike Shanahan's move to lift Donovan McNabb, jabs at QB's Super Bowl failure

 

Randy Moss Is Undoubtedly In Flight to Washington On Redskins One

Written by Anthony Brown on .

As if there isn't enough drama around this place.

Future Hall Of Famer (can I say that) Randy Moss either has or has not been waived by the Minnesota Vikings, depending whether you believe Cindy Boren at The Washington Post, or Mike Florio at Pro Football Talk.

Naturally, the Washington Redskins are on the short list of teams that will bid for his services. What's a list of teams if it doesn't include us?

It seems Vincent Jackson isn't headed here. He just re-upped with Norv Turner and the San Diego Chargers. T.J. Whos your mama didn't give Washington the time of day, opting for title contending Baltimore instead.

Who else is out there to help Rex Grossman turn things around for the Redskins? Hmm?

Why is Randy Moss available, one month after he was traded to the Vikings?

Would his presence help or hinder the development of young talent like Anthony Armstrong?

With contract decisions to be made about Donovan McNabb, Clinton Portis, Carlos Rogers, Albert Haynesworth and a handful of other players, do the Redskins need the contract issues that come with Moss?

Haven't other "win now" decisions by the Redskins only served to set the team back?

Or is this a stop-gap move to replace Joey Galloway?

Just asking.

Point after: Tweet by ESPN's Adam Schefter - " Adam Schefter Teams likely to consider claiming Randy Moss on waivers: Cowboys, Redskins, Rams, Bears, Dolphins, Raiders, Chiefs, Jets, Patriots."

The Patriots?

Yahoo! Sports - How Randy Moss quitting on a play led to his release by Vikings

Defending Shanahan. The Case for Grossman Over McNabb

Written by Anthony Brown on .

OK, I've had the night to sleep on the Shanahan's decision to pull Donovan McNabb in the last two minutes of the Lions game and can think of only two reasons why such an event would occur.

Either, Shanahan got a huge secret payoff from ESPN to hype the Monday Night Football Eagles-Redskins game on November 15.

Or, in the heat of battle, the Shanahans lost their nerve and had a gigantic brain fart.

Although this is Washington, I'm no conspiracy theorist. Shanahan is too above-board and professional to cut secret deals, but the guys at ESPN must be in ecstasy over the hype potential Shanahan created; you know, that whole Vick vs. McNabb Vs. Shanahan thing. What an audience tease!

T.O. is not involved in this thing. Get your popcorn ready anyway. It promises to be quite a show.

Shanahan did great damage to his assertion that he is trying to win now. He is being crushed everywhere, deservedly so, for pulling McNabb in that circumstance.

I'm going to defend the move, not the timing, but the move itself. Well, somebody has to.

The Jason Campbell example

Donovan McNabb's stat line after eight games is...not very impressive. He has completed 57.4 percent of his passes for seven touchdowns and eight interceptions. His QB rating is 76.0. He is the 25th-ranked quarterback of 2010.

For comparison, Jason Campbell (Oakland) is the 21st-ranked quarterback who has completed 56.5 percent of his passes for six touchdowns and four interceptions. His QB rating is 82.5.

Campbell was benched in the second game of the season and sat out the next two games. Yesterday, Campbell led the Raiders to a 33-3 beatdown of the Seattle Seahawks with a 2-touchdown, 310 yard performance for a 120.9 QB rating.

Campbell is struggling in Oakland for the same reasons that McNabb is here. He is playing in a new offense for a new coach behind a suspect line and questionable receivers.

It didn't hurt Campbell to be benched. It helped that the Raiders made the switch to Bruce Gradkowski at half time of the St. Louis Rams game. That allowed time for Gradkowski to get in the flow of the game and have an impact.

Even with Jason's recent heroics, the Raiders are week-to-week on his starting status.

McNabb can be replaced by anyone, given his performance to date.

The Todd Collins example

Todd Collins followed offensive coordinator to Al Saunders to Washington in 2006 hoping for a shot starting quarterback. The Redskins justified Collins' roster spot on his familiarity with Saunders' playbook, the very reason Grossman is here.

Joe Gibbs never gave Collins a shot at winning the starting job. He preferred Mark Brunell, the first player he signed when he returned to Washington.

Our first good look at the Saunders offense came when Collins stepped in for Campbell in the four game playoff run to close out the 2007 season. Collins performance (63.8 completion percent, five touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 106.4 QB rating) under tragic circumstances led many to over-estimate his talent.

With Saunders gone the next season, Collins' performance reverted to his norm for a 71.6 QB rating.

One of my few criticisms of Gibbs II is his blunder of not valuing Collins' familiarity with Saunders offense enough to see the potential to win games.

Mike Shanahan seems not to have considered Grossman's familiarity with Kyle Shanahan's playbook to give Grossman a serious shot at starting. Gibbs stuck with Brunell, and then started young Jason Campbell when the 2006 season spiraled to disaster.

Should Gibbs in '06 have picked Collins for his play book knowledge over Campbell's athleticism? Isn't that where the Shanahans are now?

Make the call, coach

It's not my intent to call for Grossman over McNabb. (I don't.) The intent is to challenge conventional thinking. Maybe a quarterback change is warranted.

The Redskins are at the bye. If it makes sense to insert in a game-time panic Grossman for his knowledge of Kyle Shanahan's playbook, it makes more sense to do it now, at the bye.

Shanahan would do better to make an executive decision now and have everybody prepared for the change, than to pull a stunt like yesterday's at Ford Field. That was just silly.

Grossman For McNabb? Coach Shanahan Has Some 'Splaining To Do

Written by Anthony Brown on .

With about two minutes to go in a tight game, the Shanahans bench starting quarterback Donovan McNabb for Rex Grossman. Fumble. Return for touchdown by Detroit (Ndamukong Suh). A game still within reach at 31-25 is blown away.

So the question for coach Shanahan is why? Why replace quarterback Donovan McNabb so late in the game?

I'm not arguing that McNabb should not have been replaced, but why so late in the game? Shouldn't that move have been made at the half, or third quarter at the latest?

We are all learning how the coach thinks, so this explanation will be revealing. I like almost all of Shanahan's decisions since his arrival. I will likely buy into this one when I've heard it. But the timing of it is a head-scratcher.

For distraught Redskins fans, let's just say the 'Skins are where they should be for a team expected to finish with seven or eight games. Detroit is not the patsy they used to be. Martin Mayhew is a year ahead of Bruce Allen in rebuilding his team with young talent. The result is that the Redskins and the Lions are so evenly matched that this game could not be predicted.

The game's outcome tells us nothing about the state of the Redskins beyond the impact on the record. Six sacks on our quarterback tells us a lot more, but nothing we didn't know about before the season.

Going into the bye, Washington has issues to address with the offensive line, just as they did last year. The front office has to fix the issues with the players already here.

Maybe now the whispers about Grossman in front of McNabb will stop. But I'm going to sneak a peak at college quarterbacks entering the next NFL draft (whenever that will be). It seems certain Bruce Allen will be looking.

McNabb still throws a nice deep ball and that's something to work with.

UPDATE: Shanahan says that Grossman was more familiar with the two-minute offense than McNabb; thus, Grossman gave the Redskins the best chance to win. Shanahan clarified that he was referring to the formation and terminology and that Grossman handled that better. He said nothing about handling the ball.

In business, you are responsible for the decision and accountable for the results. Both are open to second-guessing.

 

Redskins Beware, These Lions Have Teeth

Written by Anthony Brown on .

 

Time was when the Detroit Lions was as close to a gimme game as the Washington Redskins could ever find. The 'Skins are 27-11-0 all time over the Lions. The Redskins have never lost to the Lions in Washington. So, even with the team struggling, Washington's loss to Detroit last year was beyond shock.

The loss laid bare Washington's issues that were just below the surface. Who expected to see Clinton Portis fail to score on fourth down with one yard to go? Who expected to see $100 million Albert Haynesworth sprawled on the field, gassed? Who expected to see the Lions score 13 points before the Redskins get on the board (57 yard Campbell to Moss scoring strike)? Who expected to see Jason Campbell play his finest game (27/41, 340 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and lose? To the Lions?

Worse, the loss triggered the most inept example of leadership failure by Vinny Cerrato and Daniel Snyder as you will find. That gets to the point. Detroit won last year because of better leadership at the top. They may win this game because former-Redskin, current GM Martin Mayhew is a year ahead of Bruce Allen in remaking his team.

If nothing else, The Redskins should be on high alert this time when they visit the Lions.

Into the Lions den

No more the patsy, the Lions are three point favorites this game despite a deceptive 1-5 record. Mayhew and company made astute choices to restock the Lions with real talent, including a defensive line that features DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and DT Ndamukong Suh. The TV cameras and media types will focus on quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Donovan McNabb, but the real contest in this game will be Washington's offensive line versus Detroit's front seven.

The Lions hung 20 points and 366 yards on the New York Giants in a losing effort on the road. They did that with their second and third string quarterbacks. The Giants consider themselves lucky to have come away with the win.

The Philadelphia Eagles outlasted Detroit's 32 point, 410-yard effort in the game that made Michael Vick a media darling. We know the Giants and the Eagles. If the Lions can do that to them, we then know that Detroit can move the ball and can score.

Detroit averages 24.3 points per game. The Redskins average 18.6 points per game. That fuels a lot of doubt about Washington's chances.

But wait. There's more.

Football Outsiders ranks Detroit #21 and Washington #23 in week seven DVOA, their statistical measure of a team's performance against a theoretical NFL average. FO projects that both the Lions and the Redskins will win three more games this season.

Paul Bessire at PredictionMachine.com gives the Lions a 55 percent probability to win after simulating the contest 50,000 times. What's scary is that Bessire's Prediction Machine signaled a Washington win in Chicago.

Measuring defensive rank by yards allowed doesn't tell you enough about the Redskins. Yards be damned. The Redskins did that last year. Did it well. Didn't work.

This year, the 'Skins are going for disruption--quarterback sacks, hurries and turnovers. The results are better. And Washington is doing it by playing Beast ball, that old school, slobber-knocking, east coast smash mouth football. People get hurt when they play the Redskins.

It figured that the Redskins would need half the season for the new schemes on both offense and defense to jell. Other teams figure to take that long to decipher Shanahan's game plan. This game comes right at the mid-point of the season and with Detroit, off of a bye, having two weeks to study game film on Washington.

Maybe this is the game when the Redskins explode on offense as Donovan McNabb promised would happen...someday.

No predicting this game

The Lions deserve their favored status. They are a better team with genuine talent and they are playing at home (they still stink on the road). They've had two weeks to prepare for Mike Shanahan and they get starting QB Matthew Stafford and MLB DeAndre Levy back from injury. These Lions have teeth, though I'm not sure their fans believe it. The game will be blacked out in the Detroit TV market.

Washington and Detroit are very evenly matched. That makes for an entertaining game that can go either way. The winner will be the team that catches the right break--the first to score like last year, or a turnover at the right time, or whoever benefits from a bad call by the refs.

Pick-'em.

Point after: We spend time at Redskins Hog Heaven analyzing the Redskins and rosters that win games. For me, that means studying successful general managers who construct rosters that win. Keep your eye on Detroit's Martin Mayhew.

Good things happen when you combine good people with good management. Former Redskin (Super Bowl 26) Mayhew is a real smart guy: Georgetown Law; Redskins front office intern; prestigious DC law firm Akin Gump (general counsel of the NFL), associate on the NFL management council. Mayhew has shown good management and a sense for picking good talent. Mayhew took the administrative career path to GM-ship, but he either has a nose for talent, or knows to listen to his scouts.

If the dumbest football thing the Ford family did was hiring Matt Millen, the smartest thing they did was keeping Mayhew. In three years, you'll compare this guy to Bill Polian (Colts) and Ozzie Newsome (Ravens). A competent team will take the field against the Redskins Sunday. That's Mayhew's doing.

The Lions do poorly on the road and they have never won in Washington. So, why are the Redskins playing the Lions for the second consecutive time in Detroit?