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Is Jawan Jamison the next Mike Shanahan running back discovery?

My assumption of the meaning of "steal of the draft" means a player that comes in and starts and performs far above his draft selection number his ROOKIE year.  Last year's 'steal' was clearly Alfred Morris.  But we should note that the improvement of Morris from the first half of the season to the second half was remarkable.  So that even a 'steal' is going to change quite a bit over the season.

I believe the top candidates for steal of the 2013 draft are (note only ONE or TWO of these will possibly break out):
1) Jawan Jamison, RB
2) Marvin Burdette, LB
3) Philip Thomas, S
4) Bacarri Rambo, S
5) Jason Thompson, WR
6) Brandon Jenkins, LB
7) Chris Thompson, RB

I think Xavier Nixon has potential 2-3 years from now, but he will not ace it his rookie year in the pros as a practice squad member or inactive bench warmer.  Jordan Reed and David Amerson I see as potentially breaking out their 2nd or 3rd years.

Let's go through the rationale.

Jawan - watch out Royster and Helu. This guy is a nightmare in the open field and can catch and block. He's very young and coachable (talking to you Helu and your lousy health upkeep).  He ran well with bad blocking, just the kind of guy that can succeed with our overrated offensive line.  Had he stayed in school a full 4 years he would have been a first or second-round pick.  He has something to offer now and his motivation and character are at Morris/Griffin levels.

Burdette - This guy is a tackling monster.  Number one in the nation.  Great character, motivation, chip on his shoulder for being 4 inches too short.  4 inches taller and a true 40 time (was hurt due to an injury) and he is a top 20 pick of the draft.  He is our answer to Alexander on special teams.  Watch out Kehl - this guy will take your roster spot.  We need someone that can tackle Marshawn Lynch alone and he is an answer.  The great thing about a UDFA is that, if they make the team, that alone makes them a steal of the draft.

Thomas - Prepare not to freak out when he gives up a few blown plays.  He will get better and he will shine.  Gomes had has chance and he blew it.

Rambo - he makes the team but will hardly see the field the first half of the season unless Meriweather's knees buckle again.  He has great size, good speed, and a nose for the ball.  Can't wait to hear 'Rambo' chants at FedEx Field and see the new number 2 selling football jersey in the nation after RG3...

Lance Lewis - a long shot to make the team.  His college numbers are off the charts.  It's sink or swim time for the (Dezmon) Briscoe kid.  I think he chases women better than the ball at this point and he's a goner.  Lewis is a big target who could take Briscoe's spot.  If he can keep his speed and add 12 pounds of muscle, he can do some serious damage.  We need receivers that can do well against the big Seahawks secondary.  Our receiver corps looked horrendous against the Seahawks for three out of the four quarters, and I hope we see some big improvements this year.

Jenkins - I think it's easy to have him come in and just bull rush Romo.  A few Romo cracked ribs roasted on Astroturf and this kid is a rookie legend. (This is meant to be a joke. Next to greed, hypocrisy and Salary CapGate, injuries are the most distasteful part of the NFL.)

Chris Thompson - The Shanahan's want a 4.3 speed down the sidelines threat to help open up the middle of the field.  Since they are too conservative to give Robinson the ball (one attempt all year, 15 yards - duh Kyle try it twice) and they blew out RG3's knee, Thompson can fill that role.  If he makes the team and breaks 4 40 yard plus runs this year, he's a steal.

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Redskins owner Dan Snyder: 'We will never change the name of the team' cbsprt.co/10eeexW

— Eye on Football (@EyeOnNFL) May 9, 2013

@eyeonnfl But ... he didn't actually SAY the name of the team. I'll say it. I love the #Redskins I AM a Redskins. Not a slur on me.

— Anthony Brown (@SkinsHogHeaven) May 9, 2013

Dan Snyder is officially one of the greatest owners in sports. After he said that the Redskins will never change their name. Hail Dan. HTTR

— Paul Singleton (@BigManPauly) May 9, 2013

Here's proof that "Redskins is "Money," It's as good as gold – US gold bullion, to be exact. HAIL to the Yes.

Redskins.com: WR Thompson intriguing big-bodied target.

Redskins Hog Heaven loves that plugin from Notice Software that pushes our content to those mobile handheld thingies. We don't quite understand the technomagic that makes it work.

Here's one thing you should know. We receive comments you send us through your smartphone, but have no idea who you are. That capability is not written into the app, nor can we respond to you.

We gather all mobile responses and respond to them on Wednesdays. However, most reaction to Hog Heaven stories appear on our Twitter page (@skinshogheaven) and occasionally on our Facebook page.

The best way to share your thoughts with Hog Heaven readers is directly on the site through the "Comments" hyperlink on the page.  Don't keep your thoughts to yourself. Discuss.

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And if Woody Johnson owned the Redskins, Tebow would already be here. Draw your own inferences about Johnson after he brought Tim Tebow to the New York Jets ... to get in the way of coaches who clearly did not want him.

Davis is normally a good football analyst. He and Marshall Faulk are the two former players I most respect on cable's NFL Network. But it is airtime silly season with everyone guessing where Tim Tebow will land next now that the Jets dumped him.

Good theater. Tortured logic

The talking heads speculate that Tebow will land on a quarterback-needy team or on a team with a coach who had a personal connection to him.

That thinking has yet to play out (see below **), so Davis resorted to an out-dated fallback – linking the Redskins to a big name free agent. 'Skins fans everywhere gagged in unison.

NFL.com carries a video of Davis' offending comments that you can watch here.

Oddly, Davis opens his comment by explaining why Tebow would be a poor fit for the New England Patriots. Why would the Patriots ever want the ball out of Tom Brady's hands? He never asks the same question of the Redskins. Why would they want the ball out of Robert Griffin III's hands?

Allen based his argument on Mike Shanahan, Washington's football czar who could dictate the offense without interference from above, Davis' soft swipe at the Jets organization.

The point about Shanahan is the only one Davis got right. The flaws in the rest of his argument are numerous.

Davis thinks the Shanahan's called all of Griffin's running plays, as opposed to leaving it to RGIII's option. Shanahan was almost as surprised by Griffin's running as were opposing defenses. Shanahan has already said that he wants Griffin to run less in the future and out of bounds more often. Why bring in Tebow to run out of bounds from the pistol formation?

The Redskins read option worked because Griffin, unlike Tebow, is a genuine duel threat. If the opponent defends against Griffin's running, he kills them with his deadly accurate passing. It's Griffin, not the scheme, that made this work.

That's the mistake made by Johnson and the Jets. No team worries about Tebow's passing. His passing skill puts the lie to read-option. If Tim Tebow is in the game, you defend against his running threat. You react to his non-threatening passing. If Tebow and Alfred Morris were in the backfield together, opponents would simply crowd the box with eight or nine players.    

Show RGIII eight defenders in the box and he might complete a pass to himself for a touchdown. He is (presumably still) just that fast.

The last factor is Griffin the rookie vs. Griffin the first year player. Griffin played his entire college career at Baylor without a playbook. Kyle Shanahan after the 2012 Draft presented him with the first one he ever saw. The read-option provided Griffin the best chance at immediate success.

Now, Griffin has a year's experience with that playbook. Joe Gibbs once said that teams change about 30 percent of their playbook every year. The past is no indication of how much read-option we will see this season. Only Shanahan and Griffin know that. Even they won't know how much until training camp. That's too late to bring in a quarterback.

Tebow to the Redskins? Don't make me laugh. Even Mr. Snyder isn't that stupid.
_________________________

** Teams looking for quarterbacks filled the need before the NFL Draft (Chiefs, Raiders), or during it (Bills). The Jaguars are steadfast in their rejection of Tebow.

The personal connections are either to Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels who, as Broncos head coach, selected Tebow in the 2010 NFL Draft, or to Mike McCoy, now head coach of the San Diego Chargers. When he was the OC for the Denver Broncos in 2011, McCoy changed his whole offense to accommodate Tebow's peculiar talents.  

Hog Heaven doesn't understand the notion of converting Tebow to another position like tight end or fullback. For one thing, I can't find video of him catching a ball in game.  Redskins fans are watching Niles Paul struggle to convert to tight end, and Paul is a former receiver. The Redskins and most teams these days use fullbacks to block. Tebow would have to compete, as a blocker, with Darrel Young. Past glory at quarterback will not help. 

Joe Gibbs won a Super Bowl with fullback named John Riggins. Tebow is built like Riggins. That's old man football, bro' The Redskins don't run the downfield offense anymore. These are not your father's Redskins.

The Redskins don't need Tebow to sell tickets. I fear Mr. Tebow, like fellow Florida Seminole legend Danny Wuerffel, has taken his last snap as a NFL quarterback.

Find something else to talk about.

I have 16 thoughts on the NFL draft, all relating in someway to the Redskins situation, but not every thought is about the Redskins.  To be honest, this article would be much harder to write if I focused on what was a mostly expected draft by the Redskins.  So we'll start in Washington, bounce around the NFC, then bring it back to Washington.

1. I think that no matter what guys like Jordan Reed, Chris Thompson, Baccari Rambo, and Phillip Thomas do, this draft will always be known as the David Amerson draft.  Amerson's advantage here is that he's not a polarizing figure in the way someone like DeAngelo Hall is, and he'll have a chance to play himself into the starting lineup rather than being thrown in without having the ability to be pulled out.
2. On Amerson, specifically, the next six players taken in the draft were solid football players who unquestionably would have helped the Redskins, and some who were directly linked to the Redskins pre-draft.  In order, they are: LB Jamie Collins (Pats), DE Margus Hunt (Bengals), CB Jamar Taylor (Dolphins), TE Vance McDonald (49ers), LB Arthur Brown (Ravens), S DJ Swearinger (Texans).  Amerson must be compared to these players in order to avoid the evaluation pitfall of "there was nothing else available", something that's never been true but gets used a lot to defend moves.
3. I do believe that Amerson would have been there in the third round had the Redskins waited, which is relevant when evaluating their potential selection of someone like TE Vance McDonald (instead of Jordan Reed).
4. None of this means that Amerson was overdrafted or that he cannot be a good player for the Redskins in their scheme.  We don't know that the Redskins had any solid offers to trade down (although we do know the Ravens and 49ers came up two and three picks later targeting players the Redskins passed on), and we do know that they needed to get a corner high in this draft and that meant on the second day of the draft.  David Amerson is a player of some note -- this is not a case of Bill Belichick drafting Duron Harmon in the third round or Tavon Wilson in the second.  Part of Amerson's fame comes from getting torched, and part comes from leading all the football bowl subdivision in interceptions as a young sophomore in 2011.
5. College interceptions, however, are negigible as an evaluation tool for prospects.  They're basically negligible in the NFL in terms of evaluating skills, but in college, they're truly useless.  No one uses them -- this includes the Redskins.  Amerson is notable because he led the FBS in INTs two years ago, but that didn't get him drafted any more than his timed 40 yard dash did (and probably far less).
6. His 'ability' to create turnovers was a big part of what made the Redskins take notice of his skill set, but that's a tough, if not impossible part of a prospect to evaluate.  For one thing, we're not entirely sure what a pro player that has a proclivity for turnovers looks like and how to value that skill on the open market.  We're nowhere near the point of being able to project that ability from college players.  However, when you see a player with Amerson's questionable eye discipline in determining routes, that's much easier to evaluate.
7. The team just needs to be comfortable with the overall football intelligence of the player they are drafting, and in this case, it is very clear that the Redskins thought very highly of Amerson's understanding of the game as well as his own strengths and weaknesses.  He seems like a nice guy.  He's got some major issues in coverage, but the Redskins didn't see anything there on tape they didn't feel was fixable, and their coaching staff is getting paid enough to take on a project like this and try to make a valuable football player out of him.  I'm not sure where Amerson's upside is, but if the Redskins can get a quality starter at corner, this is a good pick.
8. The Redskins were by no means the only NFC East team that didn't exactly kill days one and two of the draft.  The Cowboys are getting a lot of criticism for their selection of C Travis Frederick, and it's been reported that drafting an offensive line early -- and perhpas in the first round -- was a stipulation agreed to when the team signed Tony Romo to a contract extension.  I have no idea how true that report is, but that's awesome.
9. Dallas did end up finishing up day two strong getting Gavin Escobar to sit behind Jason Witten while a team like the Cowboys tries to figure out how all those other teams look so smart using two tight ends.  Terrence Williams is a speedster who posted huge numbers playing with RG3 at Baylor, and then improved with Nick Florence at quarterback.  I know a lot of teams were high on JJ Wilcox, who will be asked to step in right away at safety to sink or swim.
10. I did not love the Eagles locking in on Lane Johnson with the fourth overall pick, and I'm just reminded how confident the Eagles were that Danny Watkins would wreck people on the interior line for years when the Eagles took him two years ago.  Mike Mayock made a good point on the NFLN broadcast: that the Eagles get better at multiple positions with this pick, because Todd Herremans can move back inside...and then they don't have to play Danny Watkins, which is awesome.  I don't know how good Lane Johnson will be in the NFL, but I suspect that he won't be more valuable than every non-Dion Jordan skill position or pass rusher in the NFL.
11. But Zach Ertz was a pick that I really just didn't get at all and I think the days are over where we look at the Eagles as a team that can do no wrong in the draft.  Their entire 2010 draft class washed out with the exception of Brandon Graham, who was the Eagles best defensive player last year, but was a really late bloomer.  Their entire 2011 draft class is on the verge of washing out.  The 2012 class looks pretty strong (thanks Daniel Jeremiah!), but I didn't love their work this weekend, and four drafts into the Howie Roseman era, they're not exactly blowing Mike Shanahan's drafts out of the water, and Shanahan hasn't ever been a particularly strong talent evaluator.  I actually think the Redskins have outdrafted the Eagles over the last three to four years, since Shanahan and Roseman took over these franchises.
12. The New York Giants did well this weekend, probably the best effort by any team in the division, but there's a whole lot of projection in their draft and not a ton of immediate help.  I think Jonathan Hankins can play multiple positions in their defense.  I think Damontre Moore can learn to play multiple positions in their defense.  Both are athletic.  I liked Justin Pugh on tape a lot, but I didn't see "top 20 pick in the draft" skill.  If he's playing tackle in the pros, I think he's the kind of player that teams will try to get their most athletic rusher one on one and try to take advantage of that matchup.
13. I got a kick out of watching the NFC West load up this weekend, particularly the 49ers, which I think we were all prepared for when they carried 16 picks into draft weekend.  The Seahawks, much like the Redskins weren't real players on the first two days, which you can call their Percy Harvin Tax.  But the Rams mached the 49ers point for point and they didn't have 13 picks (though they did have two firsts thanks to the RG3 trade), and now this year's pair of highly rated draft receivers I'm sure will push Sam Bradford over the top to where he definately will not disappoint at all this year.  Or whatever.
14. Though what the NFC North did might be more relevant to the Redskins.  The Redskins' weakness now that the secondary isn't undermanned is the teams run defense.  The Packers added Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin.  We'll see them in Week 2.  The Lions added Reggie Bush in the offseason and bolstered their pass rush.  We'll see them this year.  The Bears upgraded their offensive line and tried to replace their linebackers, both inside and outside.  We'll see them this year.  And finally, The Vikings picked three times in the first round, needing to hit on all three players (and quickly) to replace the on field impact lost in the Harvin deal.  No one is blocking Cordarrelle Patterson the way Kevin Williams is blocking Sharrif Floyd one more year, so that pick is going to get criticized much quicker than the defensive selections will.
15. Finishing up back with the Redskins, I had Jordan Reed rated lower than a lot of people (148th overall, 5th round) which explains my general lack of enthusiasm with the selection.  I think the pick, however, makes a ton of sense.  It's just having some perspective on the selection: Jordan Reed -- and I watched a lot of Jordan Reed before grading him -- struck me as a non-blocker who couldn't really be trusted in the passing game despite smooth movement skills.  That description also pretty much could be applied to Niles Paul, and you'd have no idea that it was actually my pre-draft evaluation on Jordan Reed.  Now, Jordan Reed to the Redskins becomes a very interesting player because the fact that he's a bad blocker doesn't much matter: the Redskins have shown a tendency to have their tight ends (like Paul) cutting guys down on the backside of plays.  They will not have him hanging in against blitzing linebackers asking them to take them on.  The Redskins put a premium on guys who can make people miss after the catch: Jordan Reed does this a lot on college tape.  They put a lot of value on the vertical element of the tight end.  Reed is a vertical tight end.  He makes sense as a Redskins tight end.  He makes a lot of sense.  He's going to be incredibly fun to watch because he's a smooth athlete that makes people miss.  It's just that when I watched Reed play at Florida, I didn't see anything that made me say "that player has a strong future in the NFL."
16. The Redskins brought in a ton of competition on day three specifically designed to challenge the day three picks from the 2011 draft class that haven't yet established themselves as players.  The message is very clear: this team operates on two years cycles, and for draft picks going into their third season, there is no scholarship on this roster anymore, there are just starters, and deep reserves who are young and on scholarship (except Niles Paul, who is on permenant scholarship).  Note: the 2012 draft class, particularly the deep offensive line, is still very much on scholarship, as those guys will not face competition for their roster spots this camp.  They will receive two full years to pick up the system.  But the 2011 draft class is on notice: RB Roy Helu, RB Evan Royster, S DeJon Gomes, G/T Maurice Hurt must either step into the roles of starters or major contributors, or they're going to be beaten out for their roster spot by this current class.

We all know the "Cool Hand Luke" story with Shanahan and RG3.

The story of this draft was the nerves of steel Shanahan displayed by waiting until the 4th round for their safety pick of Philip Thomas and wait until the 6th round to nab Bacarri Rambo.  Cool Hand Mike indeed.

The Redskins desperately needed safeties, as everyone knew.  Yet they were able to pick up other assorted goodies along the way.  Now we all can't wait to get a "Rambo" Redskins jersey when we thought there was no way he would go after the 3rd round.

Now is the time for daydreaming about the potential of all the draft picks as well.  What Redskins fan doesn't salivate at the thought of Rambo knocking the stuffing out of Victor Cruz thereby causing another turnover?  Let's add to this daydream - it takes place near the sideline and Cruz's mouthpiece flies out and hits John Mara who happens to be on the sideline.  Then Rambo says to Mara, 'You drew First Blood.'  Ah, perfect closure...

The second story of this Redskin's draft was "First Round Envy."  A lot of these picks are boom or bust picks that should have been chosen in the 1st or 2nd round but they dropped because of injury, weed smoking, or some other issue.  I'm beginning to warm up to the idea of Amerson, Thomas and Rambo over DJ Swearinger.  It's going to take time for me to appreciate the choice of Chris Thompson over Kenjon Barner (Panthers).  That Sport's Science episode of Barner made him look like the next Arian Foster.  In addition, Thompson's medical history reads like a stunt double for Evil Knieval.  But, I trust Shanahan, especially on RB picks.  For now, I am actually more excited about Jawan Jamison at RB.

As far as rumored UDFA's, I am most stoked about landing Xavier Nixon who we all thought would cost a 5th round pick.  I'm most intrigued about WR Josh Jarboe.  If he can pull it together, he could be quite the steal.  If one UDFA becomes a future starter, that's a major coup.

Can't wait to see all these guys play!

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